الهام باریکانی

This study was conducted to investigate the effective components in the fluctuations of the total factor productivity of rainfed wheat production with emphasizing the role of climate change in the important provinces that produce rainfed wheat in Iran.

For this purpose, a True Random Parameter Stochastic Production Frontier (TRP-SPF) Model was estimated using panel data and the obtained coefficients were used for calculating the proposed productivity index .

The results of estimation of True Random Parameter Stochastic Production Frontier (TRP-SPF) Model show that the variables of seed, pesticides, labor force, cultivated area, technological progress, square of air temperature, effective rainfall and square of effective rainfall have a significant and positive effect on the production of rainfed wheat while the air temperature has a negative and significant effect on the production of rainfed wheat. The results of calculating CATFP index of rainfed wheat show the existence of fluctuations in it. The analysis of the contribution of factors affecting changing the CATFP index showed that this index is mainly influenced by technological changes and then climate changes. After that, scale efficiency and technical efficiency are in the third and fourth places of influencing the CATFP index.

Efficiency is the first step towards accomplishing sustainable agriculture. To provide a comprehensive image of the status of potato-producing provinces in Iran, this research was conducted to rank potato-producing provinces in Iran using the DEA ranking models, including cross-efficiency, super efficiency, best and worst relative efficiency, and distance to the ideal hyperplane. Then to provide a more comprehensive image of their status, the results were integrated using the TOPSIS technique for 2018. In this regard, the research considered yield and gross profit as indicators of production and profitability. The results showed that considering yield as an output shows higher efficiency than when profit is considered. Higher yield efficiency than profit efficiency means that producers care more about increasing production as an objective output than increasing profitability. The rankings of the provinces revealed that different ranking models do not provide similar results, so they need to be integrated to give a more precise assessment. The integration of these indicators by the TOPSIS method shows that the provinces of Mazandaran, Kerman and West Azerbaijan, which have good ranks in yield and profit efficiency, can be good patterns for other provinces. Furthermore, profit and yield efficiency are negatively related to seed, K-fertilizer, and pesticide, so the management of biofertilizers, as well as biological control and integrated pest management, are recommended for the improvement of the efficiency of potato-producing provinces.

Survey of the households demand is very important and necessary in planning for production of various goods and services in order to regulate the domestic consumption, import and export. Given the importance of this issue, the study of consumer behavior and their consumption pattern is a major part of economic research with the objectives of analyzing the consumption structure, identifying appropriate patterns for explaining the consumer behavior, predicting consumption and its changes. The main objective of the present study is to investigate the consumption and demand behavior of basic food items (cereals, livestock, poultry, fish and shrimp and its products, dairy products, oils, fats and butter, fruits, pulses, sugar and vegetables) in urban areas of Iran using pooled data and SURE method.

According to the objectives of this study, the best functional form of demand should be identified to explain the consumption behavior of urban households in Iran. Therefore, first the Generalized Ordinary Differential Demand System (GODDS) using the data of urban households (pooled data) was estimated using the seemingly unrelated regression (SURE) method and then, the appropriate functional form was selected. Then, according to the appropriate functional form, price and income elasticities were calculated by applying the conditions of adding up, homogeneity and symmetry for each of the equations of the demand system. Therefore, in order to choose and determine the appropriate functional form for food demand system, Generalized Ordinary Differential Demand System (GODDS) was estimated. The above model includes the Rotterdam demand system, differential form of AIDS, and the two hybrid models NBR and CBS. The selection of a suitable functional system is based on the constraints applied based on the θ1 and θ2 parameters. The system of demand equations was estimated using the seemingly unrelated regression (SURE) method. Also, in order to be consistent with the theory of utility, the constraints of adding up, symmetry and homogeneity were applied as linear equations. In order to investigate the impact of drought and also the targeted of subsidies, two dummy variables were included in the model. In other words, the first dummy variable was entered into the model to investigate the impact of drought in 2008. The second dummy variable was entered in order to investigate the effect of targeted subsidies in before and after 2010. In order to better understand household consumption pattern and cost situation and to analyze income, price and cross-demand elasticities, and the deciles were divided into three main groups. In other words, the average of the first three to the third decile was placed in the first group. Also, the average of the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh decile in the second group and the mean of the eighth, ninth and tenth deciles were in the third group. Accordingly, in this study, the data used are pooled. The required data of research were gathered from the Statistics Center of Iran for the period 2006 to 2017.

Based on the results of the Wald test, the functional form of AIDS was selected against others. Price elasticity calculation results showed that own-price elasticity of food demand in urban areas is negative. Also, the highest own-price elasticity of food demand was related to fish and shrimp and its products (-1.03). The positive cross- price elasticity of food indicates that there is not necessarily a two-way substitutional relationship between food items and only in some cases (such as cereals and pulses), there is a substitutional relationship. Most positive cross-price elasticities have low values, indicating a poor substitution between food items. The calculation of income elasticity indicates the normality of commodity groups. The income elasticity of fish and shrimp and its products is greater than one that illustrates the luxury of this food.

Calculating the self-price elasticity of food in urban areas indicates the high elasticity of fish and shrimp and its products. Also, the income elasticity of fish and shrimp and its products has been more than one, which indicates the luxury of this food in urban areas. Therefore, pricing and subsidy policies should be set in such a way as to ensure a minimum consumption of animal protein for each individual in the community. Also, the policies governing the production and supply of the group (cereals, oils, fats and butter, fruits, vegetables, pulses and sugar) as well as the policies governing their consumption should be regulated in some way that the minimum supply of foods is to be possible for households.

This study aimed generally at investigating and analyzing the consumption basket of rural households in different income deciles to achieve food security. For this purpose, the income deciles were initially divided into three general groups including the average of the first to third deciles as the first group, of the fourth to seventh deciles as the second group, and of the eighth to tenth deciles as the third group. Then, the Generalized Ordinary Differential Demand System (GODDS) was estimated using the integrated data of 2006-2017 in Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE) method; and using Wald test, Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) function was selected as the appropriate functional form. The results of the price elasticity calculation showed that the price elasticity of food demand in rural areas was negative. It was also found that cereals and livestock meat as well as livestock and dairy products and sugar were complementary goods; cereals were known as the complementary goods for livestock, dairy products, and sugar; in addition, vegetables and pulses could be considered as substitutes for cereals in the rural areas. The calculation of income elasticity showed the positive values for food groups in the rural areas, indicating the normality of commodity groups. According to the results, the income elasticity of cereals, livestock, fish meat, shrimp and its products, dairy products, pulses and sugar was obtained a figure more than one, indicating that these foods were considered as the luxury goods.

In fifth development plan, some suitable scientific and managerial policies have been expressed in order to optimizing the use of inputs and producing compatible crops with the conditions of each area. In this study with applying positive mathematical programming method, we evaluated the impacts of possible changes in consumption of inputs on cropping pattern of agricultural crops in Amol Township. These possible changes are propounded in the form of some scenarios like 1% reduction in water usage (PMP1), 7% reduction in fertilizers usage (PMP2), 1% reduction in pesticides usage (PMP3), 0.64% increase in employment (PMP4) and simultaneously mix these scenarios (PMP5). So that in 1392-1393, 124 farmers of this Township were interviewed through simple random sampling method. The results show that with running scenarios 1, 3 & 4 separately, any changes don’t occur in cultivated area of crops; so the least reduction that models reaction to it was calculated by sensitivity analysis. Also the results show that with running scenario 5 (PMP5), observe respectively 5 and 0.2 percent decrease in cultivated area of crops and current gross margin of this Township in compare with current model. So that the greatest reduction in cultivated area, respectively with 40 and 30 percent are related to irrigated barley and Rainfed soybean. Also, all of these scenarios lead to reduction in gross margin, which will reduce the welfare of the farmers in this area; therefore, it is suggested to take the necessary actions for improving their livelihoods.

Water management in arid and semi arid regions is of great importance. Population growth and increased demand for food in Iran, in one hand, climate change, reduction of rainfall, and recent decades of draught on the other hand, resulted in limited water resources and reduction in water supply. Optimization of water resources allocation is very crucial and some experts considered the water market as a tool for water resources management. The study seeks to a) examine the water Market in economics b) review the experiences of the countries of interest. The results show that, in addition to primary requirements, it is inevitable and essential to respect the fundamental requirements to establish an efficient water market. In total, the water market could signal manufacturers and consumers to efficiently use water resources when the market meets these requirements. Considering the set of institutional arrangements and climatic, geographic and technical issues, the market approach as the first and most effective function for pricing and optimal allocation of water resources, and due to the lack of basic requirements and the impossibility of providing this facility in our country in short term, it will be an strategic mistake that will have long term inappropriate consequences in protecting and preserving the water resources. The results of the study show that the current condition of water market approach in protecting water resources is inefficient; therefore, it may be easier and more effective to use other approaches, such as improving water productivity in different sectors like agriculture, to optimize exploitation of existing water resources.

This study investigates price transmission in citrus market and in different levels as producer, wholesaler and retailer using Error Correction Method (ECM). For this purpose monthly data was used. According to monthly data, first seasonal unit root was investigated. Based on their observations in the seasonal adjustment process, the transmission pattern of the domestic market price for the desired products was estimated. The results of estimation of price transmission model show asymmetric transmission in citrus market and in different levels. Only in orange market there is symmetric price transmission in long run between levels of wholesaler –producer. Also, in tangerine market there is symmetric price transmission in short run between levels of wholesaler – retailer and in wholesaler –producer. According to this results, market size and speed of price transmission in different levels of citrus market was different. Based on the importance of price transmission and its relation with market efficiency, it is suggested that control and market regulation policies with the aim of establishing symmetric structure in market are made.

One of important producer supporting policy is input subsidy supporting and one of important economic variable is progressing in productivity. Hence, in this article, in addition of producer supporting policy and input subsidy supporting evaluating (by using of BP, MPS and PSE indices), effect of input subsidy supporting on agricultural TFP are assist (by using OLS regression model) for years of 1989-2009 (1st - 4th developing program). Results indicate that input subsidy supporting effect on TFP is negative and equal to -0.059 in short run and is positive and equal to 0.023 in long run. Research, education and promotion variable effect in short run and log run is 0.015 and 0.205, respectively. So, it seems that input subsidy supporting on TFP in addition to research, education and promotion policy could have positive effect on agricultural TFP progress.

Iran is known as one of the most important date producing and exporting countries. Given the importance of Iran’s date export and its share of about 14 percent in agricultural exports of the country، this study investigates the comparative advantage of Iran''s date export against its large global rivals as well as the long term relation between export advantages of the country and the amounts of production in this country and its competing countries، drawing on Johansen test and Vector Error Correction Estimated (VECM) for the 1996-2008 period. The study result show that shock effects on export comparative advantage is adjusted in almost 1. 5 periods، which is shorter than the time periods required for the other countries. As shown by the results، although the Iran’s export advantage has increased following an increase in the country''s domestic production in the long run، it was Tunisia which has the highest amount of comparative advantage and also the highest relation between production and export comparative advantage. While Iran has the fifth rated. Iraq، Algeria and United States are the other competitors that have achieved further adjustment between the date production and export comparative advantage، compared with that of Iran. Therefore، given the increase in production can be created in a better long-term export advantage in global markets، attention should be given to the more adaption of Iran’s date domestic production and export advantage against big competitors and specifically Tunisia.

Considering the importance and contribution of Iranian pistachio exports about 45 percent of its agricultural exports, in this study, pistachio export advantage against large global rivals and relation between export comparative advantages and production is investigated. This relation is estimated by using Johansen Test and Vector Error Correction Estimated (VECM). Data and information has been gathered from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for 1961-2008. Results show that shock effects on export comparative advantage is adjusted for 1.82 periods that is shorter time than other countries. Although the results suggest advantages in export of Iranian pistachio exports, but it shows that Iran's position in pistachio world markets is being undermined. Take such results in the long run by increasing domestic production, the rate of export advantage has declined, shows Production structure is not consistent with the purposes of export. Therefore, for supporting export advantage in global market policies are suggested to adjust domestic production with export standards.

Surface water restriction and supply variation of these resources causes of over extraction of under ground water in Iran. There is unbalance between feed and extraction of under ground water. It causes water crisis، so we must pay attention to water resources to protect its sustainability. This paper use mathematical programming models to optimize the conjunctive use of surface and under ground water in agronomy production in Qazvin basin، one of the most important areas of water crisis. For this Purpose، linear programming model was used to determine optimal cropping patterns in Qazvin with maximizing net benefits and social benefits in 2007. In both scenarios، the suggested cropping patterns were corrected and adjusted according to different crops farmland and market constraints then the results were compared. The results showed that with considering under ground water resources restrictions، maximizing social benefits can create more profit. Extraction of under ground water resources distribution in each of the models estimated in the months of the year has been different. Distributed according to water requirement of selected products proposed planting pattern has changed.

Surface water restriction and supply variation of these resources causes of over extraction of groundwater and unbalance between feed and extraction of groundwater in Iran. Agricultural sector as the biggest consumer of water resources has the most share of this unsustainability. This paper studies the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater in agronomy production in Qazvin basin, one of the most important areas of water crisis in Iran. For this, we used an intertemporal mathematical programming model to determine optimal cropping patterns of the crops for ten years period in Qazvin. For constructing the model, the duration of growth, water requirement of the crops, accessible surface water and exhaustible groundwater in Qazvin has been considered, and finally the cropping patterns was recommended. According to groundwater resources restrictions, it is suggested that cucumber and sugarcane is excluded, and cultivated area of maize and barley is increased in cropping pattern.

The general objective of this paper is to recognize factors affecting the target market of Iran's pistachio and date export. For this purpose, the target market of pistachio and date export(with use screening method), effective factors on export demand of pistachioand date, and elasticity coefficient of export demand of pistachio and date were all analyzed during 1971-2007. According to the results, Non-Asian countries with highincome are suitable markets for exporting Iranian date. Also, Asian and Non-Asian countries with high income are suitable markets for exporting pistachio of Iran in long run. Increasing the date price must be stopped to assist promotion of hygienic level and packing export date. Increasing pistachio price with regard to the appearance of newexporters is hazardous. Generally, according to findings, suitable markets for exporting Iranian date are proposed France, United Kingdom, Germany, Morocco, United State of America, Italy, Spain, Canada, Russia, Georgia, Switzerland, Netherlands, Australia andBelgium, and suitable markets for exporting Iranian pistachio in long run are Luxemburg, Hong Kong, Germany, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, France, Russia, Jordan, India, Syria, Slovakia, Palestine, United Kingdom, Cyprus, Ukraine, Slovenia, Belgium, Latvia and Armeniarespectively.

The purpose of this study is determining the economic efficiency of agricultural production cooperatives and factors affecting it and their profits. The data were collected using multiple random sampling methods. The estimation results of profit function in Fasa, Firouzabad, Marvdasht and Eghleed cooperatives showed that amount of primary and existing capital and cost of total activities of agricultural production cooperatives have direct relationships with their corresponding frontier profit. As the results of economical efficiency distribution of these agricultural production cooperatives showed that average of economical efficiency score is 0.71 with a relatively high range (between efficient and inefficient of agricultural production cooperatives). Therefore there is a possibility to raise their profits through transferring managerial factors of high efficiency agricultural production cooperatives to those with low efficiency. As the results showed that managing director level of education, number of activities of agricultural production cooperatives (activities diversity), distance of agricultural production cooperatives from downtown and agricultural production cooperatives located in Firouzabad relative to other mentioned agricultural production cooperatives had direct relationship with economical efficiency of agricultural production cooperatives and the kind of governmental management of agricultural production cooperatives relative to independent management and activity period of agricultural production cooperatives and the agricultural production cooperative located in Fasa city relative to Eghleed and Marvdasht and the agricultural production cooperatives located in Eghleed city relative to Marvdasht city had indirect relationship with economical efficiency of agricultural production cooperatives in Fars province.