بابک کوهی لیلان

The banking system is one of the main pillars of any economic system and has the highest degree of influence on other sectors, and in the event of a crisis and bank instability, it easily spreads to other sectors and even to the macroeconomy. Therefore, the factors affecting bank stability should be identified and applied by the importance of each relevant strategy. The research method is descriptive and applied and to identify, influence and influence and prioritize and interact between factors affecting bank stability, the combined method of DANP in the period 2006-2018 has been used for 15 countries in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena). Based on the research background, 17 sub-criteria have been extracted in 5 main criteria. Examination of the factors affecting the stability of the banking system of the countries revealed that the external factors of macroeconomic and internal inflation are specific banking factors (net loan to assets and granting facilities), profitability (average return on equity), and banking risk (ratio of cash reserves to assets). Have had the most impact. Expanding the scope of analysis and explicit calculation for asset and risk management, especially credit risks (net loan to asset-to-payments ratio) and liquidity (ratio of cash reserves to assets) for bank managers and inflation control for macroeconomic sustainability is proposed by the central bank.

Banking, by its very nature, involves a wide range of risks. Banking supervisors should identify their risks and evaluate and manage them. Therefore, the factors affecting banking stability should be identified and applied in proportion to the importance of each relevant strategy. 

The method of the present research is descriptive and applied and using descriptive and inferential methods, the data have been analyzed and then the obtained results have been analyzed. It has been used to identify the impact of credit and liquidity risks on banking stability in selected member countries of the Mena region using the Panel Gentle Transfer Regression (PSTR) model, which is one of the prominent regime change models. 

According to the results of MATLAB software, it was found that the variables of liquidity risk and credit risk in both regimes have the greatest impact on the stability of the banking system of MENA member countries and also the impact of credit risk in both regimes is greater than liquidity risk. Therefore, formulating appropriate policies to manage credit risk reduction can lead to the stability of the country's banking system, which in turn will strengthen the monetary system.  Analyzing the relationship between economic factors and risks on banking stability is an important issue that has been addressed in this study. The thresholds of credit risk as a turning point and distinguishing point of the two regimes expressed in the PSTR model, for these equations, have been estimated according to the Akaik and Schwartz tests (3.36 and 3.83), respectively. The results of parameter slope estimation showed that the adjustment speed from one regime to the second regime was equal to 0.194, which indicates their gentle adjustment speed. In the first regime before the threshold, ie the linear part of the PSTR model, the variables of credit risk, payment facilities, inflation and crisis and shocks to countries have a negative and significant effect on the banking system. In contrast, the variables of facility to deposit ratio, liquidity risk, bank size, return on assets, efficiency of banks and GDP have a positive and significant effect on the banking system. In the second regime, the nonlinear part of the PSTR model, the variables of facility to deposit ratio, bank size, inflation, capital to asset ratio, facilities and crises and shocks that have hit a country have a negative and significant effect on the banking system. In contrast, the variables of liquidity risk, credit risk, return on assets, efficiency of banks, gross national product and payment facilities of banks have a positive and significant effect on the banking system. 

According to the results of this study (first and second scenarios), liquidity risk, in addition to a positive effect on banking stability, intensifies its positive effect on the banking stability of countries. Credit risk also has a significant effect on off-line banking stability, which has been confirmed. In other words, according to the results of the estimated model, the variables of liquidity risk and credit risk in both regimes have the greatest impact on the stability of the banking system of MENA member countries, so that the effect of credit risk in both regimes is greater than liquidity risk. Therefore, formulating strategies to reduce instability in the country's banking system, credit risk management can be an important factor to increase banking stability, which will strengthen the monetary system.

Nowadays, due to restrictions in production supplements, the best way to improve economic growth is to increase the productivity and efficiency. Firstly, these indexes need to be measured precisely. For more specific policy making and practical policies, it’s necessary to have economic evaluations on national scale, in addition to economic index measurements and analyses on lower scales like local and provincial scales. So this paper is going to make it practical based on final available information by measuring efficiency and productivity of industries in Western Azerbaijan, including top10 groups of industry whose ISIC codes are placed between 15 and 34, from 2002 till 2010. Efficiency and productivity have been calculated by applying two methods; Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) which is a parametric method in econometrics, and the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), used as a non-parametric method by means of panel data. Results of analysis indicate that in addition to low productivity in most industry subgroups, their growth is extremely low. Besides, the efficiency change in the mentioned period is along with intensive fluctuations. Furthermore, the research results confirm the fact that ranking based on two studied approaches, SFA and DEA approaches, give approximately the same outcomes.