فهرست مطالب حسین راغ فر

One of the most important issues for developing countries, especially Iran, is the export of petrochemical products, which has received a lot of attention after the oil sanctions in the country. Promotion of exports in developing countries is known as an important element for the development of exports and the efforts of developing countries to participate more in the world trade system. Considering the importance of the issue and since Iran's economy is always facing shocks in the world markets, in this article, the spillover effect of the financial policy shock of the economic poles of the world on the export of petrochemical products of Iran and its business partners was discussed with the global vector autoregression approach, in the form of quarterly data from 1995-2020. The results showed that the positive effect of the total spending of the US government increased the GDP and imports of this country and had spillover effects to other countries, including a decrease in imports and an increase in exports for America's trading partners. In relation to Iran, the spillover effects of the global financial policy pole shock through the influence of Iran's business partners, including China, have increased the country's petrochemical products exports. Also, according to the results of the bootstraps, the positive shock of the total real expenditure of the European Union and China has not had any effect on the export of petrochemical products

This article explores how different factors influence the number and dynamics of firms in supplier-dominated industries. These industries are typically traditional, small, and depend on external suppliers for innovation. The article uses a hybrid simulation of system dynamics and agent-based modeling to capture the realistic assumptions that firms do not have complete market information and make decisions based on simple heuristics and past and current conditions. The article conducts experiments to examine how initial conditions, machine life, economic parameters, producer optimism, production growth rate, and demand elasticity affect the entry and exit patterns and the number of firms in the industry. The article uses variables such as the time to reach the peak number of firms, the number of firms at the peak, and the number of firms at the end of the simulation period to represent the shape of the industry distribution. The experiments show that the initial number of firms, demand elasticity, machine life, and financial resources have the most significant effects on the distribution shape, while other factors such as economic growth also have some nonlinear effects.

Medicine as a vital need is not only a therapeutic category but also has economic, social and political dimensions. Iran's pharmaceutical system has undergone changes due to the implementation of some market-oriented policies that have far-reaching social, economic and even political consequences. The aim of the present study is to investigate the effects and challenges of transferring the field of medicine as a vital commodity in the lives of individuals in need of a market mechanism. This qualitative research has been done in the form of analysis and description and at an institutional and strategic level in the field of medicine as a therapeutic commodity. In this research, with the help of qualitative method, ie documentary study and semi-structured interviews with some experts in this field, this development in drug marketing is criticized. The data obtained from the interview and the documents are categorized by the method of content analysis. The results show that an important part of the laws and executive policies in the field of medicine is influenced by the idea of ​​marketing, . And is organizational. Consequences of welfare This development has caused decisive damage to the access of different classes, especially the access of the needy to medical drugs, so that it has created grounds for widespread dissatisfaction.

The housing sector has always played a crucial role in the economy, with its fluctuations exerting significant effects on various economies. Prior to the 2007 financial crisis, standard models were commonly employed to explain price changes. These models assumed that agents were rational and well-informed, disregarding factors like irrationality and the heterogeneity of individuals that could contribute to such crises. However, agent-based models offer a different perspective, viewing the economy as a complex system with heterogeneous agents possessing limited information, engaging in interactions with each other. As a result, this study aims to evaluate a spatial agent-based model, specifically developed to analyze the housing market in Tehran. The simulation's results over an eleven-year period revealed that the growing demand from young households with limited savings for residential units under 100 square meters significantly drove up the prices of these particular units, outpacing other residential properties. Moreover, the findings indicated the higher growth of housing prices in the central areas of the city, primarily triggered by the influx of young households into these regions, seeking investment opportunities.

The selection, transfer and development of technology is one of the main pillars of the upstream oil and gas industry. The process of selecting technology in Iran, due to the type of ownership and special importance of oil and gas resources, is considered as one of the main components in the upstream part of this industry. Technology selection is a mechanism that aims to achieve economic benefits. In order to achieve effective technology, transfer in this industry, it seems necessary in terms of indirect effect in addition to its direct effect. One of these effects on technology transfer that must be considered is the issue of technology overflow. The present study is based on the study method, according to the rules and available resources, and in line with previous studies. Finally, the present study aims to develop a conceptual model of economic evaluation, a quantitative structure of transfer technology in terms of overflow effect. Lack of impact of overflow is one of the main reasons for lack of impact of technology transfer in the country. If the effect of overflow is applied in technical and economic calculations and contractual cases in the selection and transfer of technology, it can improve the effectiveness of technology at various levels of industry and even at the national level.

One of the issues which internationally is important in the oil industry is related to the Upstream industry of oil contracts. Changes made in these contracts consist of differences made directly in relation to the importance of the number of hydrocarbon sources and the number of shares each party is going to gain. If more structure of these contracts is emphasized and fortified, more duties and places of each party will be complicated. In this research, the comparison is made between two contract models which have been recently proposed and overviewed. The criterion used in selected contracts is from the National Iranian south oil company (NISOC) and Iranian Petroleum Contracts (IPC). The research has concentrated on the efficient economic cost role used in these contracts. A questionnaire was conducted based on the analytical hierarchy process, and a survey was conducted among the professionals of the oil industry. The results showed that most of those who participated in the survey agreed that the National Iranian South Oil Company’s Contract (NISOC) has a better criterion for the efficient role in economic cost

In this research, an attempt has been made to investigate how the perception of households and firms regarding the economic situation, when they are optimistic or pessimistic, has affected their financial behavior during the two decades of 2000 and 2010. and how this change in behavior has affected macroeconomic variables.To this end, the limited simulation has been carried out augmented with a fully decentralized and micro-founded macro-economic agent-based model compatible with the stock- flow approach. In this simulation, an opinion model, which produces endogenous waves of pessimism and optimism has been added. The idea of optimism and pessimism is a feedback of the individual situation, the behavior of precautionary savings in the household and the ratio of long-term debt to the total capital used in the firm.The results show that in the decade of 2010 compared to the decade of 2000, increasing the level of firms’ leverage and decreasing the level of households’ saving put some households and firms under financial constraints, It has turned them into pessimistic agents and herding behavior has caused the spread of this pessimism among agents. So that pessimistic opinions gain credibility and caused firms to change their financial behavior, increase the firm's financial leverage, and reduce the company's financial self-sufficiency. And the share of wages will take a downward trend, which has resulted in small fluctuations in the economy. Also, due to the interactions between the agents, gradually, with the further spread of pessimism, these small fluctuations have slowed down the dynamism of the whole economy and turned it into a deep economic recession.

The rapid changes in the economic and social structure experienced by households during the economic transition prevent the generalization of a single model for the household’s distribution of household expenditures and incomes in developed countries. Therefore, the goal of this study is to estimate the revenue and consumption life cycle indices in Iran during the years 2001 to 1399. Based on the results, the age-profile indices show a hump-shaped pattern. Because the spending smoothing behavior distributes definitive sources of inequality evenly throughout the life cycle, it has a smoother age profile than income. More educated households with higher income levels and expenses have higher income growth rates for a longer period of time. Slow increase in consumption inequality relative to income indicates that most permanent changes in income have been predictable for individuals. Also, according to the permanent income hypothesis and the findings of other economies, consumption inequality has increased for households over 30 years old. This result is consistent with incomplete market life cycle models in which variance is a constant component for all early in life cycle is small, and increases over time due to the accumulation of certain permanent shocks. Finally, estimates of the income process show that although permanent income shocks are the same for all households, in without an academic degree group, past incomes have a greater effect on current incomes, and this group suffers larger transient income shocks.

Inflation and volatility in food prices affect low-income groups more than other income groups, eliminating essential food items in the household food consumption. Quality of the nutrition of households includes serious risks to the development and health requirements of disadvantaged groups in the society. Furthermore, dairy products play important roles in health and development of people. From the welfare policy-making point of view, this has been addressed as a critical factor.

Agent-based simulation, as an advanced forecasting approach, makes it possible to assess effects of various policies on consumers’ behaviors and their expenditure patterns by considering heterogeneous agents. In this study, price elasticity of dairy products was calculated using almost ideal demand system approach. Effects of increases in dairy prices were then simulated using Netlogo6 Software.

Simulation showed that the proportion of household consumption of dairy products in various groups significantly decreased. Decreased dairy consumption occurred asymmetrically between various income groups. The fifth quantile included the highest total expenditure. Adverse effects of dairy price increases decreased dairy expenditure for the first quantile to almost zero.

Since the increase in the price of dairy products causes a decrease in the consumption of them in the food basket, It is suggested to adopt a variety of protective policies in consumption and production sector of dairy products in order to improve and increase the low per capita consumption of these goods.

Access to technology in the upstream oil and gas industry is one of the most challenging issues. In this industry, in order to be able to apply the desired effects of technology in the economic and development dimension, in the decision-making process, the choice to acquire technology must be such as to avoid repeating the ineffective approaches of the past. However, the most divisive And explicit division between the existing approaches is a fully participatory view with other international actors and another non-participatory (independence-seeking) view of the domestic sector. In this research, using game theory, it examines limit approaches through multilayer modeling (Complete and incomplete information, static, dynamic and evolutionary) and analyzes two participatory approaches and non-cooperation in acquiring and using the technologies of Iranchr('39')s upstream oil and gas industry (Study sample of phase 11 of South Pars), explains their strengths and weaknesses for deciding between the two approaches and how to access the technology. Research results show, achieving technology in the long run, by imposing some restrictions, improves its effects on the industry, and a completely independent view has only short-term beneficial effects and sometimes even contradicts the principle of resource protection. It is emphasized accordingly, the participatory approach should be considered as the main policy provided that internally, based on the proper use of the natural benefits of this industry in the country and the effort to become an imitator to be a leader in the field of technology in the international arena, has been set as the ultimate goal.

Poverty and various forms of inequality, including class, gender, racial, and ethnic inequalities, are the consequences of imbalances of power relations and make society subject to social instability and unrest. makers.

 This study investigates the effects of income distribution on social unrest, using agent-based modeling. This model is simulated using Iranian data collected from an environment in which two groups of inteligent agents, i.e, citizens and military forces, exist. This intelligent model with an agent-based simulation approach, allows the policymaker to change the parameters and the assumptions of the model based on the prevailing conditions in society and to study the policy outcomes.

Based on the results obtained from the simulation when the level of reward for the military is low, the probability of victory of the rebellious citizens increases. But, when the military forces’ income is in the middle range, the likelihood of civil war is much higher and once their income is high, the higher is the probability of the government victory.

Employment is one of the main factores affecting the formation of individuals’s identity. Having a decent job and lower income inequalities in the society can contribute to social and political stability. Strengthening social capital will create interpersonal, intergroup and social solidarity and cohesion which lead to the lower likelihood of social unrest.

Development is a concept that simultaneously implies the change of multiple structures in various aspects of social life and requires a multidimensional process that pursues multi-species goals. Goals change with the introduction of new social variables and needs and increase the responsibilities of development managers. Development has ensured the efforts of a society to achieve its value goals, and its sustainability depends on providing relative welfare, complete security and sufficient awareness for all its members. In fact, sustainable development requires social justice and balanced attention to the cultural, political and economic aspects of the society. This should be done in such a way as to make the human resource development process hopeful.Development and justice are among the concepts whose legitimacy cannot be doubted. Justice and its position and relationship with economic performance have been explored in the literature of development economics. Over the past four decades, the theoretical and empirical areas of development have witnessed the growing intertwining of national development issues and scientific advancement in social justice. Thus, in the current situation, the relationship between social justice and national development is explained as an organic relationship. Fairness of conditions is an important variable that determines the desired economic performance. The purpose of this study is to study multidimensional poverty in Iran as an indicator of equitable development. A review of successful development experiences shows that they have a wise approach to designing development plans that are consistent with social justice. Therefore, in this study, the concept of equitable development is studied first, and then the multidimensional poverty index is calculated. Since poverty is a multifaceted phenomenon, the study of all its aspects and dimensions requires accurate knowledge. The Alkire and Foster method is one of the most widely used ways of calculating multidimensional poverty. It has also been used by the United Nations to introduce a multidimensional global poverty index. In this study, the index is examined in the five dimensions of education, health, employment, housing and standard of living.Considering the same weight for each dimension and the same weight for each of the indicators within each dimension, poor households have been found to be deprived of more than one third of the indicators. Then, after the identification of the poor people, Alkier and Foster poverty indices have been calculated using the raw cost-income data of urban and rural households in Iran during the years 1990 to 2020. Calculating the multidimensional poverty index shows that multidimensional poverty has been reduced in urban and rural areas of Iran. Of course, the intensity of this decrease is significantly higher in rural areas. The value of this index in rural areas has decreased from 0.483 in 1990 to 0.183 in 2014. This reduction is a reduction in the extent and severity of multidimensional poverty in rural areas during the years 1990-2020, which can be due to the living facilities provided to rural households in the post-revolutionary years.However, the decline in this index is not very obvious for urban households because most urban households had access to these amenities during the period. The value of this index for urban households in 1991 was equal to 0.239, which was the highest rate during the years 1990 to 2004. After that, during the years 2004-2009, there was a fluctuating trend. During these years, this index was 0.260 in 2003 and 0.294 in 2007, which was the highest value of the multidimensional poverty index during the studied years. This can be due to the high inflation and the recession in the late 2001. Nowadays, the multidimensional poverty index is reported in global databases as a development index, so it can be a criterion for policymakers to make comparisons between Iran and other countries. It introduces equitable development not only in income poverty but also in the deprivation of the poor minorities and marginalized groups of equitable access to various aspects of quality and prosperous life. It brings multidimensional poverty into focus by defining equitable development. Therefore, in order to promote development based on justice in a society, conditions must be created for equal opportunities and access to resources such as education, health, employment and living standards.

 

The reduction of public participation in many sports fields due to various issues, including economic, political and social pressures, has led sport development to become a planned and up-and-down process to enhance the sustainability of sports participation by influencing the quality and variety of programs offered to all people in the community with every level of sport. Since the removal of barriers to sport development is one of the main steps and the beginning of its realization, the purpose of the present study is to identify the obstacles that exist in the path of the sport industry development process of the country.

The method of research is qualitative and based on theme analysis. For collecting data, snowball sampling and semi-structured interviews were conducted with 16 knowledgeable elites. Data was performed based on the six stages of theme analysis with the approach presented by Clarke and Braun (2006).

According to the results, the barriers to sport development in 42 sub themes and 8 main themes were extracted and explained: cultural, economic, political barriers, systemic-human, management, infrastructure, technological and media barriers.

The careful consideration given to the obstacles suggests that some of these obstacles, such as cultural, economic and political barriers, are barriers to the land. Therefore, in removing obstacles to the development of the country's sport, there should be a closer look at the barriers that underlie the barriers and feed other obstacles.

Inflation and instability in food prices have affected low-income groups more than others and have resulted in the elimination of essential food groups in this type of households. Considering the changes in household’s behavior in the case of rising bread prices can help policymakers in the pricing of this product.

In this study, the price elasticity of bread is estimated by the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). Then, using the results obtained, the change in household behavior in the case of rising bread prices is simulated with an agent-based simulation approach. Demand elasticity calculations are based on household survey data for 2016 and 2018 (for more than 18,000 households) and the impact of increasing bread prices on 5000 agents (households) in the Net Logo software is simulated.

The increase in the bread price has led to a 33% increase in the lowest quintile expenditures, which confirms that this product is a Giffen good for this group. Following the increase in the bread price, the burden of bread inflation on the budget in the first income quintile is more than 5 times of that of the fifth.

Following the increase in the bread price, the increased share of bread in the basket of low-income groups, indicates the substitution of this good for other essential food items. This point, in addition to the impacts of malnutrition and their consequences, bring the policymakers attention to critical point of not to manipulate the price of bread.

Supplying and upgrading living has always been the main economic goal of all societies. Today, the level of national competitiveness is one of the factors contributing to sustainable economic growth and long-term prosperity in the countries. Indeed, competitiveness is a set of institutions, policies and conditions that determine the level of productivity of a country. The level of productivity, in turn, determines the level of welfare that a country's economic system can achieve. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of competitiveness on social welfare of twenty selected developing countries. This study is carried out with the data approach panel and generalized method of moments (GMM) during the time period 2007-2015. The results of the study indicate that the Global Competitiveness Index has a positive and significant effect on each of its three main index (basic requirements, efficiency enhancers and innovation and sophistication factors) on social welfare in the study group. Also, the effects of urbanization, abundance of natural resources, government size and unemployment rate were considered as controlling variables in the pattern. Among these, the impact of urbanization on positive and significant social well-being, the impact of unemployment rate and size of the government were significant and the abundance of Natural resources is negative but statistically. The findings also show that the greater the weight of income distribution in the social welfare function, the less positive impact on competitiveness, its triple indicators and the urbanization on social welfare.

Taking care of the body is one of the achievements that has become a fashion and lifestyle today; But what matters is how the body is shaped by taking some of the supplements on the market. The prevalence of some hormonal drugs among athletes is due to the tendency to have a different body. The present article seeks to be able to identify and analyze the mechanisms and relationships that expose the body to the market by demonstrating how to reproduce such an issue. To achieve the goal, the concept of bio-power in Foucault and post-Foucault has been used and a qualitative method has been used to explain the activities of actors. The data from this study are the result of a semi-structured interview with 35 people who have taken both hormonal drugs and share in the market for buying and selling them. According to the research findings, the use of hormonal drugs among individuals is the result of contemporary fitness and lifestyle discourses that have produced a kind of knowledge in this field. This knowledge, by being tied to profit-based relationships and the complementary drug market, leads to the formation and production of specific forms of subjects in Has been marketed. In fact, manipulation and control of the body have taken place through the normalization of the use of complementary drugs, and new medical and quasi-medical subjects recommending the use of such drugs have led to its reproduction.

Drugs as a strategic and subsidized commodity and an urgent need for patients have been constantly of particular importance, specially, in the health-care system of a society. On the other hand, one of the parameters concerning the assessment of the family welfare is the amount spent for satisfaction of divergent needs. The more a family spends on essential necessities such as food, housing, clothing and higher education, the less is expected to be devoted to health care. Concerning drugs, the demand for different drugs may vary depending on the patientschr('39') attitudes, the type of illnesses and their income elasticity. The objective of the present research is to investigate the demand for orphan drugs for refractory diseases regarding various income groups in Iran applying Agent-based Models (ABMs). In this research, the behavior dynamics of the orphan drugs applicants and the diversity of their demands in miscellaneous price scenarios resulting from inflation and fluctuations in the exchange rate have been scrutinized in accordance with ABM. To this end, one thousand family applicants for orphan drugs, extracted from Iranchr('39')s statistics center, were categorized in five different income ventiles. Their reactions towards the increase of the price of the aforementioned drugs are predicted based on Net Logo simulation software. The results indicate that the average of price elasticity of demand for generic and branded drugs has been -0.39 and -0.05 percent, respectively; similarly, the demand for these two drug groups has been decreased by the same amount. In the lowest income ventile as the price of generic and branded orphan drugs deceases, for the lowest income ventile families, the allocated expenses for these drugs has been decreased by 3.3 percent and 31.85 percent, respectively. The main reason for the aforementioned problem is assigned to the low budget of the patientschr('39') family and its allocation to essential necessities of life such as food and housing. The severity of the cost reduction in branded drugs is due to the fact that it can be replaced by generic drugs.

Inrtoduction:

 Macroeconomic instability, exchange rate volatility, high inflation and consequently rising food price have been critical issues in recent years in Iran’s economy. Policy inefficiencies, policy inconsistency, and food price fluctuations have affected vulnerable households and low-income groups and increased food poverty, undernourishment and malnutrition. The study of income and price elasticities of food items, especially in different income groups, provides valuable information for policy making.

This research, using the approach of the almost ideal demand system, studies the elasticity of food items in the household consumption budget for 2016 and 2018 and compares different income groups. The household income and expenditure from raw household survey data for the years 2016 and 2018. Due to the heterogeneous impact of price changes on demand in different income groups, the study was conducted on different income quantiles. In this respect, we focused on meat, bread, and dairy item.

Results show that bread is identified as an inelastic good and dairy and meat as elastic goods for low-income groups. The results of quantile analysis show that in 2018, bread was a Giffen good for the first quantile and necessary good for the third and the fifth.

The results indicate that the consumption of animal protein and dairy products is highly sensitive to the price of these goods. An increase in the price of these goods will limit the consumption of these micronutrients in the household food basket or possibly eliminate it in the low-income groups.

The purpose of this study was designing the model of  sports talent development system in Iran.

In the present research, qualitative research method based on Grounded theory was used. Also, for data collection, snowball sampling and semi-structured interviews with 16 elites, who aware of the subject, were used. The collected data were analyzed by coding the Grounded Theory with the constructivist approach by Charms (2006). coding was done in two phases: initial coding and focused coding. Then theoretical coding was used to form focused codes. Also the data has been verified periodically by the researcher.

The Results shows that the model of sports talent development system in Iran has four parts which include: input (specialist human sources, financial sources and infrastructure sources)  processes (talent management, competition, education, scientific approach and also three necessities like talent support, efficient structure, institutional coordination and communication) output (national and international successes, the development of championship and professional sport, gaining financial results and having enough talent) and  feedback (Control and evaluation system).

to implement a talent development system in the country, 15 key factors classified in 4 major modules should be considered.  It is crucial to understand the importance of each module, since any minor problem in any of these modules, will generate problems for other modules.

This study uses an innovative questionnaire to investigate the effect of mental poverty on the performance of human resources in an Iranian sample. Evidence from behavioural economics shows that mental poverty defined as reduced cognitive capacity due to scarcity and financial worries affect individuals’ performance. The innovative questionnaire that has been distributed and completed among the same people at the beginning and end of a given month has made it possible to exogenously impose mental poverty through time. It is assumed that workers are more likely to suffer from mental poverty at the end of the month when most of their income is consumed. Therefore, they are expected to have lower cognitive performance at the end of a given month. Data on individuals' performance in IQ tests, Frederick cognitive test and simple math questions is collected through the questionnaire. The questionnaire is distributed among 161 selected government employees in two rounds; once at the beginning of a given month and once at the end of the same month. The findings indicate that there is a negative and significant relation between mental poverty and labour performance in IQ tests.