فهرست مطالب سمانه جواهردهی

Unemployment is one of the major challenges facing the Iranian economy, and one of the government duties in the economy is to reduce unemployment. So, the aim of this paper is to study the macroeconomic factors affecting the unemployment rate in different provinces, with emphasis on cost credits and capital asset ownership during 2008-2015. The results indicate that cost credits have a significant positive effect and acquisition of capital assets have a significant negative effect on the unemployment rate in the provinces.With the increase in government cost credits, increased which has led to a reduction in productivity and an increase in unemployment. The increase in government acquisition of capital assets has had a complementary role for the private sector and has reduced the unemployment rate through providing the necessary economic infrastructure. Also, the results indicate a positive effect of the ratio of total government expenditures production of provinces on unemployment. With the division of provincial unemployment into urban and rural unemployment, cost credits has had a significant positive effect on unemployment, but the effect of acquisition of capital assets on rural unemployment is not significant. Also, during the implementation of “targeted subsidies law”, the unemployment rate has increased.

Todays, the low water countries have specific attention to the virtual water trade for determination of their long-run strategies. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the situation of the virtual water in Iranian industrial products trade with its partners using method of basic-technical indicators. The data have been collected from statistical center of Iran for firms with 10 or more employees during 2011-2014. In this regard, due to the large number of trade partners, 20 countries with more than 95% proportion in trade have been selected and the process of export and import of the virtual water was studied for them. The results show that the net virtual water export trend has had undesirable situation, where the net export of virtual water from -112 million m3 at 2011 have raised to 115 million m3 at 2014. In other words, the industrial sector has turned up to a net exporter of the virtual water. Also, the most import and export of the virtual water has allocated to United Arab Emirates and China with volume of 119 and 99 million m3, respectively. Hence, as policy implication, considering the water resources in industrial products trade is necessary.

In the literature, money demand is usually related to some key variables such as income, interest rate, exchange rate and inflation. But in the societies that population age distribution has changed drastically, age structure is also an important explanatory variable that should be considered in a well defined money demand function. The absence of such variable from money demand function might not lead to a co-integrated equation. Hence the estimated parameters would not be reliable. In this article, by the aid of Ando and Modigliani’s life cycle theory of consumption, three money functions are specified for the components of liquidity that encompasses a variable which represents changes in the age distribution of the society. The specified equations are estimated using time series data for the period 1959 to 2014. ARDL method of estimation is adopted. The results show that by increasing the portion of middle age group in the population, who’s marginal propensity to consume is low, the demand for currency and checking accounts decreases while the demand for time deposits tend to increase.

The aim of this paper is to specify and estimate such a model for non-oil export that allows to revise the previous predicted volume of annual non-oil export, as soon as new seasonal data for the explanatory variables are released. This cannot be achieved unless a model is constructed in such a way that annual non-oil export is set as a function of some seasonal explanatory variables. By utilizing a very recent method of regression specification, namely MIDAS regression, this article sets annual non-oil export as a function of seasonal real GDP, seasonal real exchange rate and seasonal real exchange rate fluctuations. To provide more accurate predictions, as compared to traditional methods, this regression model is capable of providing a revised prediction as soon as new information concerning explanatory variables are released. The specified regression model, which is estimated by using time series data within the period 1989 – 2014, predicts the real amount of annual non-oil export for 2015 with a small error of almost 2%. So, this prediction is considered to be very close to the reality.

Economic growth is the most important symbol of government, so economists are trying to better and more accurate to understand dynamics and factors influencing changes in this indicator. Policymakers can help to improve it. In this study, the relationship between economic growth, development of the banking sector and some macroeconomic variables was investigated using Panel-VAR method. For this purpose panel data of D8 countries during period of 2008-2013 has been used. For development of banking sector indicators of money supply, rate of credit to private sector and credit to banking sector and macroeconomic variables are involved, foreign direct investment, trade openness, inflation and government spending.
The results of this paper indicate that amount of credit to the banking sector and credit to the private sector had negative effect on economic growth. The broad moneysupply, foreign direct investment and trade openness has a positive effect on economic growth and the effect of foreign direct investment is more than other variables in D8 countries in our period.