فهرست مطالب علی اصغر اسفندیاری

The content of the book "Dimensions of the Resistance Economics in the Oil Industry" includes the text of the general policies of the resistance economy, the correspondences and statements made in this regard, the history of the oil industry, and the actions taken by the Ministry of Oil in pursuit of a resilient economy. Meanwhile, an attempt has been made to define a resistance economy in line with Islamic economics. Although this article is not proven. The structure of the book is news and sermon and has not been used sufficiently from scientific sources. Therefore, there is no analysis of the relationship between the resistance economy and the oil sector. The above work is applicable to general information on resistance policies and some of the Ministry of Oil's programs in this area and, despite the author's views, is not a complete reference in this field. In this regard, it has been attempted to briefly explain the axes related to the crude oil and natural gas sectors in line with the resistance economy and identify the strengths and weaknesses. The analysis included cases that the book did not refer to and could be used as an introduction to future research.

The balance of payments is one of the most important economic indicators for each country, because this variable is important information to the international situation and shows how the national economy conecte to other countries, foreign exchange and gold stock changes. In other words, the importance and reviews the balance of payments and thus the foreign exchange market is obvious because the majority of developing countries including Iran are suffering from the foreign trade imbalance due to its unpleasant effects on the domestic economy (production, inflation, etc.). Therefore, this study is trying to investigating the effect of implications and consequences of exchange rate shocks on the balance of payments. This study uses monthly time series data for the period 1385 Fravardin to 1392 Mordad and has been using Near-VECM model. Near-VECM which have higher explanatory power in comparing VECM base on the study result, analysis the effect of exchange rate volatility on The balance of payments, in addition to the exchange rate changes. According to the study findings, there were strong and significant short-run and long-run relationships between the research variables and also negative and significant short-run and long-run relationships between the foreign exchange volatility and the balance of payment. In addition, the coefficient of error correction term is equal to (-0.6) and it is negative and significant that shows the high speed adjustment process. Therefore, considering the research results, it is necessary that government executive economic policies to be designed and implemented with emphasis on reducing the volatility in the foreign exchange market.

This article tries to identify the forward and backward linkages of Petrochemical sector using conventional and improved Chenry-Vatanabe, Rasmussen and Eigenvector methods. It relies on Eigenvector method noted much. This method, based on Perron-Frobenius theory, considers the continuity of durability in one sector to the others due to the quantity of the final demand and added value. So, Input-Output table of the year 2001 aggregated to 27 sectors are used. The results represent that petrochemical sector in all the methods used has strong Forward linkage (FL>1) and weak Backward linkage (BL<1). Thus, this is not a key sector. Strong Forward linkage shows a high level of intermediate demand belonging to all sectors. Hence, we can say that petrochemical sector is a superior industry for most economic sectors and its sufficiency is higher than other economic sectors.

The effort of this paper is to use 21 indicators related to the subject of the industries with 4 digit codes of ISIC(Third edition) which its information obtained from the Iran center of statistic’s during the period of (1379-1384), this article tries to rank those information by numerical taxonomy, factor analysis and structural change methods. This article also studies the structural changes with 2 digit codes of ISIC. The obtained results from indicators of fundamental analysis show that there is tendency and bias to produce industrial applications such as ungrouping equipments and machinery motor vehicle trailer and mini trailer production other transportation vehicles, fundamental metals, metallic fabric productions, chemical productions and produce the coke and the oil productions is considered during the mentioned period.

This study deals with Iranian business cycles and analysis of their causes. In this study the time series of variables consisting national income and the other influential variables in creating business cycles have been used and all the data with annual frequency are considered as logarithmic and the fixed price of 1997. The period of study is between 1971 and 2007. In other to extract the business cycles, the statistic at method of Hodrick-Prescott Filter (HP) was used and the Business Cycles Indicators of lag. Lead and coincident variables were recognized. After wards, the lead variable were analyzed based on linear regression model of business cycles and also on the advanced econometric method called Generalized Method of Moment (GMM), and the contribution of each above variables were determined in creating fluctuations of real gross domestic product (GDP). The estimated coefficients showed that the oil & gas export variables have a positive impact and the oil price variable has had negative impact on business cycles in Iran.

Oil industry is one of the biggest and most influential industries all over the world, especially in Iran. Besides being the main source of energy in today’s world, oil plays an important role in determining a country’s national power and international credibility. The oil sector has provided the majority of income for many years in Iran and in fact, this sector plays the main role in the country’s economy. Also, with regard to the fact that developing countries have limited resources and unlimited needs and cannot develop all the economical sectors at the same time, they should give priority to key sectors. This study attempted to identify the key sectors and scrutinize the oil industry as an important and a key sector in Iran’s economy, through Input-Output table of 1380 (Iran's last Input-Output table) which was aggregated into 34 sectors. The sensitivity of dispersion index and the variance index of the oil industry were 1.027 and 0.17 respectively which indicate that the relationship between this industry and the other sectors is well above the average of whole sectors and this relation is distributed evenly among the other sectors. If the oil industry is removed from the output sum, 119219783 Rials (Leontief model) and 137162804 Rials (ghosh model) would be lost in production. Also, 130618 (Leontief model) and 344108 (ghosh model) job opportunities would be lost. Concerning total output elasticity, the oil industry ranks 4(among 34 sectors) and this shows that this industry is very important and has an increasingly role in total output. But Concerning total employment elasticity, it ranks 23. In addition, the oil industry has the highest costs for job opportunities up to 880721697 Rials.

Distribution of income is of vital significance because, It represents not only a significant aspect of justice; but, it also influences economic, social and other variables. Therefore, it is important for the economic and politic decision makers to identify and assess the effects of income redistribution policies, as it the useful in planning. Hence, in this paper, using semi-input-output model, we try to examine the effects of income redistribution for low-income groups, on the Iranian macroeconomic variables. In other words, this paper aims to find out whether or not the income redistribution results in Iranian economic growth. Similarly semi-input-output table of the Iranian statistics centre in 2001 has been used in 10 parts, assuming mixed technology. In this paper, it is revealed that increasing economic growth policies and income distribution improvement policies are not contradictory.

In this research, job opportunities have been examined among 26 productive sectors of Iran's economy by using input-output table in 2001. From viewpoint of employment, production and value added, the key sectors has been diagnosed by using MRI, elasticity of input-output table, backward and forward linkages and June's corrective methods. Then, job opportunities has been analyzed among different economy sectors by using parts of final demand and value added in input-output table. The result indicate that the most of job opportunities in Iran's economy have been create by agriculture and trade services sectors of demand and supply side. Meanwhile, agriculture sector has the lowest cost of creation a job opportunity in Iran's economy. According to MRI index, correlation coefficient is 61/5% among the economy sectors of production and employment. Whereas, viewpoint of employment and value added this coefficient is -9%.Thus, according to this index, economy sectors cover one path by viewpoint of production and employment but by viewpoint of employment and value added those cover different path generally.

The aim of this research is to analyze the production chains and industrial clusters using comparative advantage criteria, competitive effect and cumulative effect by applying the methodology of regional growth theory. For this idea, we collected the industrial workshops statistics in the province of Khuzestan in 2002 and 2004 and potential existence of industrial clusters has been observed. On the whole, the results show that the cleaning, grading and packing processes in the case of dates are considered which is a main industrial cluster in the province (specially in Shadegan). Using this methodology, results show that the brick production, plastic products and forging iron and steel can be candidates for industrial clusters in Ahvaz. Also noting that industrial clusters are related to industries which produce homogeneous products in small and medium scales, and are related to private sector. Moreover, the result indicates that the industrial clusters characteristics do not suit with the huge processing such as steel and petrochemical industries.

In our country, forming Free zones and felling them develop are considered as a very effective element in opportunites and developing of exports, promoting employment, getting the domestic and foreign investments, increasing the general income and tourism, improving the economic stand of the country and also complying with a competitive economy. Considering the economic operations of three free zones (Kish, Qeshm, Chabahar) during 1994 to 2005 shows that a major part of revenues goes from exporting goods from Qeshm and revenues from tourism in Kish. Major parts of the constructions and fundamental facilities have been expensed in Kish and this region is very important in getting the domestic and foreign investment considering to the other parts of the country. The operations of Chabahar zone in the case of above mentioned elements has been done weakly because of lacking the constructions and fundamental facilities and also deprivation of the region, so this zone could not access to the main goal which is transit of goods. As a whole, the roles of the above mentioned elements in Iran’s economy are very inconsiderable and it shows that these zones have been operated weakly during these years. In econometric chapter is determining the effective factors on export expansion and cultivation revenue in foreign exchange. However these factors are acquired with use of panel data of three zones Kish, Qeshm and Chabahar during 1994 to 2005. The issue of this test, illustrates that increasing in variable of current cost and civil cost with three historical delay foreign and domestic investment and revenues has a significant positive effect on export expansion and cultivation revenue in foreign exchange of three free zones. This issue is most helpful to cultivate of revenue in foreign exchange of this places.

Underground Economy is a series of value added activities which is not defined in the frame of formal economic. Private activities, private organizations and those kinds of market activities which, in some way, are not discovered by officials, totally, are making black or informal economic. Underground economy includes four sections: family, informal, irregular and illegal. The nature of unclearness of black economic, make it hard to estimate and study the economy, because of these, most of current measuring methods are indirect measuring of thise activities which are accompanied by limited assumptions. Through this research, in spite of considering different methods of measuring black economy, we estimate the amount of underground economy, using "currency ratio" and "Gap between expenditure and income of family". The gap between expenditure and income of family method is based on discrepancies between expenditure and income of families which is not reported in the national accounts. In "currency ratio" method we measuring the size of underground economy based on exchange of currency.