علی فیروززارع

Designing incentive packages for the implementation of the cultivation pattern by farmers is one of the policies of the agricultural sector which plays an important role in providing food security. This study was conducted in Razavi Khorasan province as one of the hubs of producing agricultural products in Iran. To identify the required incentives and to design incentive packages, the Delphi method and the opinions of farmers and agricultural experts were used in three stages. In order to carry out this research, the opinions of 34 specialists and experts in the field of agriculture and 158 agricultural operators of the province were used to design incentive packages. According to the obtained results, three incentive packages including "pricing policy for basic agricultural products and guaranteed purchase", "management-infrastructure" and "subsidy" were designed and provided to farmers, which were chosen by 41.1, 32.9 and 26 percent of farmers, respectively. Therefore, it can be concluded that farmers are risk-averse and the government can take a big step in operationalizing the crop pattern by farmers with the policy of guaranteed purchase in proportion to the market balance for the stability and increase of farmers' income as well as creating balance in production and attention to the required infrastructure.

Agricultural activities are always associated with risks for farmers due to dealing with living organisms. In these activities, all kinds of natural, social, and economic risks go hand in hand and provide vulnerable situations for producers. The result of this fragility and vulnerability causes instability in incomes. This research aims to determine the identification and prioritization of the parameters of agricultural contracts using the AHP hierarchical analysis process combination model and similarity to the ideal option of TOPSIS in Razavi Khorasan province through a researcher-made questionnaire based on the studies and research done, from 13 experts and experts. In the field of agriculture, a contract was made that was selected based on their expertise. In this research, 2 criteria and 14 options were considered; And TOPSIS and AHP methods were used to weight the criteria, identify and prioritize agricultural contract parameters. The results showed that the criterion weight for promoting farmers' participation in contract agriculture is 0.692 and the criterion weight for helping food security and increasing production in contract agriculture is 0.308; Also, based on the weights obtained for the criteria and based on the TOPSIS prioritization method, among the parameters of agricultural contracts, the highest rank was related to holding training classes and technical consultation, and the lowest rank was related to the type of contract (bilateral-multilateral). Based on the results obtained from this research, it is suggested that the agricultural jihad organization or the private sector should consider parameters such as the holding of training classes and technical advice, the existence of trading options, the type of contract (written-verbal), the presence or absence of the requirement to determine the degree. pay attention to the quality, duration of the contract, type of contract (direct-intermediate), supply of inputs; In this case, it is expected that the participation of farmers in contract farming will increase.

Having a plan of crop pattern suitable to climatic conditions ensures the sustainability of agricultural production and food security and makes the capacities of each region be used properly, this possibility can be investigated and implemented in the form of policy packages and by designing targeted incentive packages and According to the needs of the farmers and then providing the packages to the farmers, they will stimulate the farmers to implement the cultivation pattern, which can play an effective role in the operationalization of the cultivation pattern in the fields by the farmers. The purpose of this study is Investigating the influencing factors on the willingness of farmers to accept incentive packages for operationalizing the crop pattern proposed by the government in Khorasan Razavi province.In this study, 283 farmers were selected using the available non-random sampling method, and the necessary data and information were collected using a questionnaire and face-to-face interview. Also, using multinomial logit regression, the purpose of the study was examined.The results of the research showed that the variables of The number of household labour, market risk, financial risk, attitude, perceived behavioral control and membership in social institutions have a positive and significant effect on the selection of the management-infrastructure package and the variables of Amount of non-agricultural income, medium-scale farmers, subjective norms, financing willingness, marital status and Enough access to Water have a negative and significant effect. Also, variables of place of residence, The number of household labour, participation and cooperation with agricultural jihad, attitude, perceived behavioral control, cultural factors and membership in social institutions have a positive and significant effect and variables of large-scale farmers, weather risk, subjective norms, behavioral intention, satisfaction with The policy and objectives of the agricultural jihad and the activity and participation in the farmers' group have a negative and significant effect on the choice of a subsidy package.

Unlimited use of limited quality Municipal effluent on the farm endangers the health of farmers and consumers of Products irrigated with Municipal effluent. Pollution will be minimized if farmers implement parameters related to the safe use of Municipal effluent, such as the cultivation pattern appropriate to the quality of the effluent, the use of appropriate irrigation methods and the distance between the last irrigation and the effluent to harvest. Therefore, the main idea of this study is to determine the factors affecting the safe use of Municipal effluent on the farm by Iranian farmers. In this regard, the broad theory of planned behavior (TPB) with the addition of risk perception (RP) and knowledge (Kn) as the theoretical framework of the study has been used. The results of structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis showed that three sub-components of the main TPB model namely Attitude (Att), Mental Norm (SN) and Perceived Behavior Control (PBC) were statistically significant positive relationships with farmers' Intention of farmers to participate in the safe use of Municipal effluent. In addition, after including the two variables of perception of risk and knowledge as predictors of intent in the developed model of the theory of planned behavior, the predictive power of the model increased. Also, the most important variable in the main TPB model was perceived behavior control, but in the developed TPB model, knowledge was the most important. Therefore, policymakers can promote safe behaviors in the use of Municipal effluent on the farm by emphasizing farmers' knowledge.

Rice is a very important food product in providing national food security for the Iranian families. There are different types of rice in Iran that are selected and consumed by consumers. Consumers are looking for more desirable features for consumption. The average annual consumption of Iranian rice in Iran is about 1.33 million tons, while it is 1.30 million tons for foreign rice. One of the most important key factors in the success of producers is to pay attention to the preferences and tastes of consumers. Any change in the product and service should be made taking into account the definition of quality from the perspective of the consumer and in accordance with their preferences and tastes. Existence of foreign rice, especially Indian and Pakistani rice in the domestic market due to the close quality with similar samples of Iranian production, low price, abundant advertising and proper packaging, have changed the preferences of Iranian consumers for rice, so, high consumption of imported rice have raised concerns about creating a kind of loyalty to foreign products. The quality and variety of Iranian products can be improved by knowing the tastes and desires of consumers led to increase per capita consumption of Iranian products relative to its similar foreign types and raise farmers’ incomes. Therefore, the present study aimed to identify and prioritize the factors affecting consumer preferences in the selection of Iranian and foreign rice in Mashhad city.

Data of 384 rice consumers in Mashhad city were collected using a questionnaire design and surveys sampling. In the qualitative section, after identifying related factors, the views of experts were examined through semi-structured interviews and the seven main factors include product appearance, quality, health, price, packaging, distribution and promotion were identified in the form of 20 variables (sub-factor). In the inferential analysis section, seven main factors were ranked using structural equations and Friedman test.

The results showed that quality, health, product appearance, packaging, distribution, price and promotion had the greatest impact on the consumers choice for Iranian and foreign rice, respectively. All rice consumers chose rice to consume, which first of all has a pleasant aroma both before and after cooking, and also does not have small pieces of rice at the time of purchase and has a suitable taste after cooking. Also, rice health is the second component that consumers pay attention to, they choose rice that is sure it is organic as well as being free of toxins and fertilizers. The grain appearance of the product include grain length, post-cooking appearance and its color at the time of purchase is located in third rank. The next rank is related to product packaging including packaging type (bulk or package), package appearance and listed information on the package. Distribution of rice products is located in fifth rank, which is divided into store location and access to the store. The final rankings were related to price and advertising such as the type of media, public relations and encouragement to buy the product. Post-cooking taste, purity, post-cooking aroma, aroma and smell at the time of purchase, post-cooking texture of rice, and choice of rice type by the citizens of Mashhad city have a negative and significant relationship, respectively. In other words, those who consume Iranian rice pay more attention to these variables in their selection than those who consume foreign rice. In choosing rice, the type of packaging and its size are not the first priorities of buyers, but it plays a significant role in the marketing. Based on our results, if Iranian and foreign rice are at the same price, consumers tend to consume Iranian rice because of the pleasant aroma and taste. TV commercials cannot affect consumer choice, because rice is a product that must be seen by the consumer when buying and the decision to buy is made after checking the rice appearance.

Focusing on producing a healthy product, producing cultivars with better post-cooking appearance, eliminating government currency and removing foreign rice price bias, as well as focusing on quality instead of high cost on advertising can improve the level of rice production can enhancing consumer satisfaction as well as improving the situation of rice production and rural income and employment.

The agricultural sector, in order to develop, needs to inject financial resources and investment through two sources of consumer savings and formal and informal credit sources. Keshavarzi Bank plays a key role in the process of financing the agricultural sector in Iran. The survival of this role is highly dependent on the repayment of installments by the recipients of the bank loans, therefore, identifying and analyzing the determinants of farmers' behavior in repaying loan installments will play a key role in reducing the credit risk of loans paid by the Keshavarzi Bank. In this regard, using the information of 263 farmers in North Khorasan province that was collected in 2019 and also using a multi-group discriminant analysis model, the present study has tried to investigate the determinants of farmers' behavior in repaying the installments of loans received from the Keshavarzi Bank. The results of this study showed that the variables of having a history of receiving loans, non-agricultural income, receiving loans at the right time, having bak account turnover at the time of receiving loans, annual income, production scale, level of education, type of ownership, agricultural insurance and agricultural experience are the most important variavles in differentiating between different groups of loan repairers.

Based on presented information of WHO, high growth rate of non-communicable diseases which is caused by improper lifestyle specially malnutrition and its economic problems, considered as an important obstacle to social development. In this regard present research tries to present decision-making algorithms of customers in the case of selecting between healthiness, price and taste of food as their purchasing priorities, by applying new knowledge of data mining and C4.5 algorithm of decision tree and data of 220 customers. Results show that the factor of customer age is the most important factor influencing on customers behavior in selecting healthiness as the first priority. Other variables in later levels which have influence on selecting healthiness as the first priority are income and education level. Results would help policymakers in adopting suitable and targeted policies in this scope, in order to improve society’s nutrition model and attain healthy society.

Today in developing and some developed countries source separation of waste project is following coherently because of shortage of keeping abnormal wastes places and landfill band and also economic considerations. Hence, recycling and conversion materials organizations of municipalities have done some projects which resulted in increasing the participation of families in separation of valuable wastes. In this regard, present research tries to present decision-making algorithms of Mashhad citizens by applying new knowledge of data mining and C4.5 algorithm of decision tree and data of 145 citizens in the year 2012. Results show that the factor of Satisfaction of the Project is the most important factor influencing on citizens cooperations. Other variables in later levels are mother's employment status, assessment of valuation method of the project, awareness of environmental, economic and social advantages of the project and education level. Results would help policymakers in adopting suitable and targeted policies in the urban management scope, and in addition would enhance welfare level of citizens which is considered the most important goal of all urban organizations.

A lot of activities in environmental economics scope have concentrated on this question that why some developing countries suffer from environmental degradation, whereas other countries can maintain or enhance the environmental quality. With the collapse of communism and economic evolution of China, most people live, work and bargain in free market economies. Hence, future quality of environment depends on the relationship between pollution and the growth of the free market. The principle cooperation of economists in investigation of this issue is related to Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) concept. In short, this hypothesis is based on the principle that economic development strengthens the environment and also weakens it. Economic development especially in poorer countries mostly results in decreasing environmental quality, but continuity of this trend can solve a lot of environmental related problem in countries with moderate and wealthier economy. On this base, the aim of this research is investigation of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in selected countries of four income groups of the world.
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: The hypothesis of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) assumes that there is not a monotone and constant relationship between per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and environmental quality. If environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is true, per capita income trends will underestimate general changes in welfare in rich countries and overestimate them in poorer countries. A number of World Bank economists have argued that environmental Kuznets curve shifted to left and down during the time. If their conclusion is correct, then developing countries will be able to take advantage of this issue in two ways. First, probably they will reach their turning point earlier than other countries (which have reached their income turning point in the past). Second, before reaching the turning point, they suffer less environmental damage.
In order to investigate environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, present research has applied multilevel modeling which relaxes a lot of previous research deficits. Multilevel modeling helps more precise data analysis through maintaining categorized and hierarchical structure of data and in fact by using original data structure in analysis process relaxes the heteroscedasticity - which is resulted in due to integration of hierarchical structure of data- as much as possible. In this regard, present research by using time series data of 1991- 2009 for 33 selected countries in four income groups (high, higher than average, lower than average and low income) has investigated the relationship between CO2 emission and gross domestic product (GDP). Original data of real GDP (year 2000 dollar), population (in order to account per capita) and CO2 emission have been gathered from world development indices of World Bank.
Results of this research indicate the necessity of applying multilevel modelling in evaluation of this hypothesis. Based on this model results EKC hypothesis would not be rejected and also high income countries have passed per capita GDP level of Kuznets Curve turning point and therefore they are in the descending part of this curve. Whereas, low and lower middle income countries are far away from per capita GDP of maximum pollution and until they do not use market and non-market forces, remain in the trap of pollution increase as a result of GDP increase. Based on these findings, higher than average income countries are able to reach this level, hardly.
CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS: Taking into consideration of the real world and current situation of low and lower than average countries (from the aspects of technology, infrastructures and different political and economic structures, etc.) reaching to descending part of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is approximately impossible. In order to fulfill the part of descending pollution, it is necessary to make major changes in market and non-market forces of these countries. Price and technology are two of the market forces of this atmosphere. Prices are the most fundamental factor affecting on form and situation of EKC. Higher energy prices delay the economic development, but one of the advantages of higher energy prices is incentive to reduce consumption. Other forces affecting EKC atmosphere are non-market forces like government role. Government measurements like green (clean) technology help to explain both the form and situation of Kuznets curve. In addition, better information about environmental hazards can shift the curve through the need for rules and regulations in lower level of per capita income.

Nowadays، marketing is considered as one of the most important parts of all manufacturing and service activities. In order to reach more share of goal market، different companies always update and change their marketing policies. These companies have to know that different customers impressed by different marketing policies and them، they should choose most suitable policies for one goal group. The other words، they have manage their cost beside managing market and income. Applying multinomial logit model and collecting data form 201 food customers in Mashhad in 2012، the current research tries to investigate effective factors on effectiveness of each advertisement method. The results show that married people، high-income ones، youth، women، educated people and larger families are more affected by media and sellers. In addition these results indicate that men، aged، single، low-income and low-literate people are more affected by their friends.

This study contributes to reduce bread waste in the production process by determining effective factors that distinguish high bread wast bakers from low bread waste bakers using 250 bakeries over Mashhad in the year 2010. The discriminant analysis was used to predict the study bakers into one class of high or low waste groups. Results indicate that among discriminators, bakery status, bread waste price, dough fermentation time, daily consumption of flour, quality of produced bread, percentage of wet gluten, moisture percentage, quality of flour and maintenance costs have the highest share in distingushing between high and low bread waste bakers. Predicting bakers based on their bread waste was considered as a suitable instrument in order to identify effective actions for reducing bread waste. In this study, classification accuracy of discriminant analysis (DA) and DA-based artificial neural network indicates high accuracy of class prediction at training and testing data with DA-based artificial neural network model. Ultimately, based on the results, a number of applicable and executive recommendations to decrese bread waste in the production process were presented.

Advertisement is one of the most fundamental actions of marketing process and one of the most extensive areas of marketing systems. If firms select proper procedures، appropriate and targeted advertisement through using the knowledge، expertise and experience in their marketing process، they can، in addition to promoting the welfare of customers، gain huge capital for their own firm. Therefore، before conducting any advertisement، it is necessary to identify effective socio-economic factors on making impressible goods. In this regard، this research، by applying multiple-group discriminate analysis for the gathered data of 201 food customers of Mashhad selected by the simple random sampling method in the year 2012، has investigated these factors. Results showed that age، marital status، education level and income level are the most important variables on discriminating between the customers influenced by sellers and the customers influenced by media. In addition، household dimension، average rate of consumption and gender are the most important variables on discriminating between the customers influenced by friends and acquaintances and the customers influenced by sellers and media.

In this study, in order to investigate measures of feed crops supply during Iran fourth program of development, the Nerlove partial adjustment model and system equations estimated by seemingly unrelated regression method were applied to time-series data of 1989- 2004. Results showed that compensation of animal protein shortage require providing inputs and production factors, i.e. agricultural sector products, which should be prepared from internal production or import. Based on the results, current flow of import and production of these crops did not compensate shortage of animal protein at the end of the program, unless by applying mentioned approaches, increasing productivity, making use of modern production methods, employing experts and educated labors, etc. Yield of production would be increased and this gap would be filled.

By using cross-section data which gathered through a survey research in Mashhad, contingent valuation approach and Tobit model this study tries to determine economical value of air pollution and effective factors on WTP. Based on contingent valuation approach, air pollution total value of airpollution in high-polluted region equals 7134146560 Rials per month and in middle-polluted region equals 5242428950 Rials per month. Therefore according to citizens’ opinion percent improving Mashhad air pollution state equals 12376575510 Rials per month. Also Results of investigating effective factors on willingness to pay (WTP) by estimating one-stage tobit model showed that education level, household income, having car, age, kind of settlement region and having children are effective factors on willingness to pay.

This paper presents the application of multivariate time series model (ARDL) to investigate factors affecting bread waste and to explore the relationships among shortrun, longrun and error correction coefficient and the independent variables over the period 1978-2006. Results reveal that Gross National Product and urbanization have positive effects on bread waste in the long term, while the bread price and Gini coefficient have negative effects on bread waste in short term. To predict the amount of bread waste, artificial neural network (ANN) and ARDL model were applied. Comparison of the two models indicated that the ANN-ARDL multi-layer perceptron model (3 layers) with a hyperbolic tangent transfer function for the hidden layer and a delta-bar-delta learning algorithm, is the best model for forecasting the amount of bread waste. This amount will exceed 3.181 million tons in 2011. This implies that considering the wheat price in 2006, USD 1145 million will be removed from the national economic cycle.

In order to value Mashhad air quality improvement and determine its effective factors, current study has applied contingent valuation method and two stage Heckman model on gathered data of high-polluted and medium-polluted regions of Mashhad which are gathered through field survey method. Based on results of contingent valuation method it can be say that 30 percent improvement of air quality total value in high-polluted region equals 7134146560 Rials per month and in medium-polluted region equals 5242428950 Rials per month. Therefore according to citizens’ mentality, value of 30 percent improvement of Mashhad air pollution state equals 12376575510 Rials per month. Based on results of this study, in decision-making stage, education level, age, kind of settlement region, sex and having child are significant variables on citizen's WTP for air pollution reduction. In addition education level, sex, age, household income, having child and having car are effective factors on people willingness to pay in administrating stage.

In order to investigate measures of animal protein supply during the fourth Five-Year Development Plan in Iran, supply functions of meat, milk and fish and supply system of chicken and egg were respectively estimated applying ordinary least square and seemingly unrelated regressions methods. Results showed that meat supply is almost inelastic with respect to the last year price, custom tariffs, supply of meat and price of animal feed and current year supply of feed and its custom tariff. The results were similar for milk. Moreover, the most important factor on chicken supply was its last year price. Last year price of egg and feed supply were the most important factors on egg supply as well.Furthermore, supply of fish was directly determined by its price, and custom tariff, investment in fishery and its last year supply, and by wage labor inversely. Also, results showed that changes in different strategies influence supply of different products intensely.

In this study, factors discriminating low-waste from high-waste bakeries have been survey appling a discriminant analysis and sample of 131 bakeries in mashhad in 2008. The result indicated that direct surveillance, cost of flour, price of bread, time of fermentation, number of bakery convenience, quality of flour, experiment of baker and mean of personals income had significant and negative effects on the bakeries waste content. On the other hand, ration type of flour, type of bakeries personals activity and number of environs bakeries had significant and positive effects on the bakeries waste content. Results indicate that among factors related, type of bakeries personals activity, ration type of flour, cost of flour, experiment of baker and quality of flour are important factors in discriminating the two group bakeries. Finally, based on the conclusions, several policy-oriented recommendations were made.

The aim of present article is determining economic value of air pollution and environmental effects of Mashhad city air pollution. Data of 286 households of Mashhad was gathered through questionnaire in a survey reaserch using stratified random sampling method in year 2006. In order to detemine environmental effects of air pollution choice experiment approach - which gives the most perfect environmental total economic value - conditional logit (CL) and nested logit (NL) models, have been applied. On this base, for a thirty percent improvement in bad odour, black fallout, poor visibility and health effects of air pollution, high-polluted region settlers are willing to pay, in average, 751, 912, 1526 and 1607 Rials per month, respectively. Whilst, middle-polluted region settlers, are willing to pay 595, 802, 1263 and 1453 Rials per month for 30 percent improvement in bad odour, poor visibility, black fallout and health effects of air pollution, respectively. Therefore, value of a thirty percent improvement in Mashhad air pollution is equal to 11303472650 Rials per month.

Estimating liquidity demand function considered as an instrument of designing effective policies on money balance. Based on different lookouts, economists represent different models. By using Iran´s time series data of 1974-2001, this study have estimated long-run relationship of money demand; moreover, this have tried to investigate effects of short-run shocks on money demand. Results depicted that income, oil incomes, exchange rate and interest rate influence on money demand in short-run; furthermore, there is a long-run relationship between these variables and money demand. Also, on condition that a shock comes to across to money demand, only twenty six percent of this shock will be adjusted.