فهرست مطالب علینقی مصلح شیرازی

In recent years, the humane society has been faced with fundamental threats of production, supply and distribution of Water, Energy and Food. The geographical location of the country in a semi-arid area, has made the country more vulnerable, specifically in water resources. The extend and complexity of interrelationships amongst water resources and other domains, has made the management and policy-making tasks, extremely challenging. The danger of sub sectional policy making without taking into consideration the consequences of those policies on other related areas, calls for an integrated and holistic view. The Food-Energy-Water nexus (FEW) approach has gained a momentum in the recent years. System dynamics methodology as an effective tool that is capable of analyzing complex and nonlinear relations among variety of variables can be utilized. The current research tries to develop a conceptual model, taking into consideration, the interrelations in the FEW nexus. In order to operationalize the conceptual model, a system dynamics model has been developed and run. The results suggest that, if the current situation were to be continued, the stress on water resources in the area would reach a critical point to extent of the destabilization of a normal life, in the near future. Several scenarios of management intervention have been developed and tested in the research model. The outcome indicates that the reduction in agricultural water usage as well as development and enhancement of waste water treating systems, combined, would have the most effect on reducing the decreasing rate of the water resources.

Being aware of the new technology conditions after executing and identifying the consequences of execution of these technologies have been always a basic and vital issue in technology management that can help gain competitive advantages in the commercial applications through making correct selections of the new technology according to the conditions of the in the urban business uses and the specifications of the agency while having an extensive effect on the regional sustainable development. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a systematic model to assess commercial soft technology in small and medium enterprises (SMEs) operating in the urban commercial sector of Bushehr. For this purpose, the sequential mixed method in three stages (qualitative, Tool design, quantitative) is applied. At the first step (qualitative part), the themes were taken from in-depth interviews (up to theoretical saturation) with 25 experts, consisting of small and medium enterprises and municipal managers. The received data were coded and 157 key codes were identified in the form of 57 basic themes, 25 organizing themes, and 6 global themes. In the second step, the soft technology analysis mechanisms were adjusted using the "Technology Atlas" and "Daddario" models Implemented in one of the business units in the urban business use sector of Bushehr city. The results of this study show the main components for assessing commercial soft technology are technology acceptance level, technology impact level, technologist human, technology life cycle, degree of automation and technology transfer. The findings of this study indicate this model can analyze the features, characteristics, consequences, and outcomes of using commercial soft technologies in urban business use. Also, the results of executing the model showed that the soft management and marketing technologies with the assessing coefficients 0.62 and 0.6 are the most complex and extensive technologies among the soft commercial technologies in the urban business uses in Bushehr.

Much has been written about various approaches which pay attention to supply chain from specific angles. One of the new approaches is an integration of Lean, Agile, Resilient, and Green (LARG) that benefiting from the advantages of different approaches and avoiding their disadvantages. This study aims to present a model for analyzing LARG supply chain using Axiomatic Design (AD) and Sustainable Balanced Scorecard (SBSC) in a Hesitant Fuzzy (HF) environment in automaker industry. The study process consisted of two stages: designing stage and evaluating stage. In the first stage, the Functional Requirements (FR) and chain Design Parameters (DP) identified in the LARG supply chain based on the Delphi technique and literature review. In the second stage an integration of information axiom, the Best-Worst Method (BWM), SBSC and hesitant fuzzy logic was used to analyze supply chain in Iran automaker industry. The results showed all 21 indicators are met in both independence and information axioms. Among LARG supply chain criteria, customer requirements, and timely delivery of the car to the customer is the most important and the use of multi-purpose labor and up-to-date machinery is the least important. Among sustainable balanced scorecard perspectives, growth and learning perspectives are the most important and internal processes perspective is the least important. The model with integrating LARG supply chain using AD and SBSC in a hesitant fuzzy environment has caused the designed model to have many capabilities compared to the existing models.

Technology is a vital part of operations in any organization; however, the selection of appropriate technology is a challenging decision. This paper aims to develop a model for assessing the level of appropriateness of technologies for users of the Fars Province Gas Company. To do this, a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods was used to create and apply the necessary instrument. In this research, we first extracted technology selection criteria from national and international scientific documents. Secondly, the criteria were sifted, then the unnecessary criteria were removed using the content validity ratio method. Finally, the remained 33 criteria were classified into three categories: financial, strategic, and technological. To weigh the dimensions and criteria, the R-SWARA method was used, and it discovered that the technical dimension has the highest weight and encapsulates more criteria than other dimensions. The validity of the model was approved using experts’ ideas. Then, three alternative technologies for inspection and testing of the pipeline welding used by Fars Province Gas Company were evaluated using the designed model, and the rating of each technology was determined by the proposed model. The results reveal that the most appropriate technology is Ultrasonic Testing Technology, with a mean score of 13.2 out of 20.

This research aims at simulating the interactions of linguistic variables affecting market capitalization of capital market. In this regard, the dynamic model of the research has been designed by using a system dynamics approach and, in order to reflect investor’s mentality, the fuzzy inference system has been merged with system dynamics methodology. In this framework, the fuzzy membership functions of variables such as Market Efficiency, Market Manipulation, Investor’s Knowledge and Culture, Market Trust, and Investor’s Sentiment has been defined and Using Vensim DSS to simulate the scenarios, the validity of the model has been tested under systemic and statistical tests., This research is a applied study with an exploratory mixed method framework that has been conducted during 1386 to 1404. The results show that simultaneous change in endogenous variables, results in faster and greater change in market capitalization than distinct change in each of this variables. Changing the Market Efficiency, Investor’s Knowledge and Culture, and Market Manipulation in the demanded way will increase the market capitalization by 77% in the comparison with base run simulation values. The results of sensitivity analysis shows that market capitalization is more sensitive to simultaneous change of endogenous variables than the distinct changes of each of these variables.

Stock exchange market, as an important institution for financial resources allocation, plays a fundamental role in the fast and continuous economic growth. Stock exchange brokerage’s performance is very influential in attracting and remaining stockholders in market. This paper is aimed at modeling the dynamics of brokerage’s marketing system and simulate key factors as marketing effectiveness, customer satisfaction and loyalty using System Dynamics approach. The research model is simulated and analyzed by Vensim DSS. For testing the reliability of the model, RMSE has been calculated. We used Scenario Planning approach to investigate the important and uncertain environmental factors affecting brokerages marketing system. The results of testing different policies under scenarios show that the most influential factor in improving marketing effectiveness is customer relationship management which can enhance marketing effectiveness to seventy percent that implies twenty progress. Besides in stock market’s boom and parallel market recession, increasing marketing impact can noticeably improve marketing effectiveness.

Nowadays, the expansion of competition and the increasing complexity of the environments affecting business activities are significantly evident. Accordingly, application of appropriate business models has been of great importance for managers to determine the optimal performance of the organization activities in competitive conditions. Therefore, identification of various business models and familiarity with their main features are essential. In this study, it has been attempted through use of quantitative content analysis approach. It conducted by reviewing various studies on business from 1990 to 2017 to identify various business models under the major categories of the study. It lead o describe their features and factors to design and implement each model under minor categories. Through this research, various business questions have been answered and trends of the past studies of various business models, the most recent and most important models, as well as the most important factors in designing and implementing them, have been presented. This components in the results is hoping to be an effective step in helping executives of organizations and industries of the country to deploy or improve the business models.

Selection of the appropriate portfolio for investment is one of the issues that investors face it in financial markets. For this, shareholders must considere the financial parameters that effect on capital market efficiency and also must survey the macro economic factors and rules which governe the capital market. Therefore, analyzing the different companies in terms type of industries and ranking of the industries can provide a model to the investors. The main objective of this research is to rank  the accepted industries in Tehran Stock Exchange in before and after liberalization period and then to compare these two periods together. This study has used the ANP method to range and identify the effective industries. Designed pattern includes macro-economic criteria (inflation, interest rate, exchange rate), economic liberalized dimension (width, depth, efficiency) and financial ratios (liquidity, leverage, activity, profitability). In this context, 35 industries classified in 18 groups with similar characteristics in both periods. Prioritization has been done with Super Decision software.

The purpose of this study is to describe the process of commercial soft technology diffusion in Iran’s oil industry. The study employed grounded theory and deeply interviewed 19 experts in Iran’s oil industry. According to the analysis of conducted interviews and applying open, basic and selective coding. 785 final codes, 184 concepts and 71 sub-themes were extracted. The Process for the commercial soft technology diffusion of Iran's oil industry (Causal conditions: needs and requirements of the industry, requirements of the knowledge-based economy and management, basic theme: The process of commercial soft technology diffusion; Contextual conditions: cultural, economic, political, technological, innovative and environmental contexts; Intervention conditions: Top management support, young and educated personnel, mental models of industry personnel and management style; strategies: culture development, educational activities, outsourcing and consulting services; Results excellence of human resources, improving productivity, improving the competitiveness of the industry and improving the country's macroeconomic situation) was explained.

The present study was conducted with an innovative approach and the integration of system dynamics with ground theory to provide a system model for commercial soft technology diffusion in Iran's oil industry and was carried out in two stages. In the first stage, the ground theory was used. An interview with the 19 experts who dominated the process of commercial soft technology diffusion in the Iranian oil industry was carried out and a total of 785 final code, 184 concepts and 71 sub categories were extracted by performing necessary coding. The key variables of the system model were extracted from the first stage coding and a system model was developed in the form of 18 reinforcing loops and 4 equilibrium loops. In the following, the stock flow model was prepared, the necessary formulation was performed and after the validation of the model , the necessary simulations were done. The model data was gathered through expert comments and the model was simulated for a period of 50 years from 1390 to 1440. The results indicate that the best priority for improving the process of commercial soft technology diffusion is train, create an appropriate organizational structure, outsourcing and, ultimately, research and development.

Financial performance measurement has been known as an important tool for assessing and guiding strategies, projects, and strategic decisions of organizations. Since assessment of financial performance is multidimensional, dynamic, and time-dependent, system dynamics approach is used in this study. Considering a 15-year horizon, this study, using this approach and application Vensim DSS software models and simulates the performance of the financial system of a sand and gravel firm (private joint stock company) which is going to increase its productive capacity. The main purpose of this study is to assess and analyze the investment project for increasing productive capacity and its cost effectiveness. On the other hand, receivable and payable accounts are analyzed and assessed to improve the performance of the financial system. The results suggest that increasing the productive capacity is affordable project. Further, aggressive and moderate scenarios for management of receivable and payable accounts in current situation and conservative and moderate scenarios in increasing productive capacity situation lead to an increase in the financial system variables. Financial experts can use this model as a tool for supporting the company’s development programs and for managing the performance of its financial system.

In this study, after considering the important impact of Stock market on the country’s economy, it will analyze the long-term relationship between Tehran Stock exchange market and the variables of exchange rate and gold’s price. Keeping this in mind, by using the System Dynamics method and the relationship between Financial, Stock exchange, exchange rate and gold market’s data, it will analyze and simulate the movement of large capitals from the stock market (in this study, Chemical industry) to the currency and gold market and vice versa. The simulation is done with the Vensim DSS Software. The overall result is showing that the change in the Macro Economic variables will increase the value of the stock market. In this study, it has used different scenarios for changing the macro economic variables and the results are showing that decreasing and increasing the interest rate by 5% will increase and decrease the stock market’s value respectively 21.86% and 3.14% on future.

today’s strategic coordination, an essential tool to organize and standardize the different parts of the operation in order to create a unified whole. Management of various organizations in developing their strategies and different axes may be subject to consideration, but what management organizations have in common, trying to shape a coordinated set that can realize various goals. Therefore, the aim of this research is to Formulation human resources strategies and its Alignment with the business strategy, organizational structure and culture Electricity Distribution Company of Fars province on the basis of strategic reference points. This study of the nature of a research applied – developmental and collect data tools are documents and standardized and a self-made questionnaire. The population consisted of employees, managers and specialists of Fars Power Distribution Company and also university professors in various stages of research they to be used. The results show that a conservative business strategy, Strategy organizational structure of the mechanical type, Strategy organizational culture of the mission type and Finally human resources strategy of contracted-based. To Formulation human resources strategies Alignment with the business strategy, organizational structure and culture Scenarios stated that the company can use them.

Financing is the main problem of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) and of course their main financing source is bank facilities in our economy. Thus, the purpose of this study is to consider the dynamic interactions of effective variables and also internal and external problems in financing via heuristic approach and by using system dynamics method. Research systemic model and causal variables – with regards to the literature review and Khodabakhshian et al (2013) study- are developed, modeled, simulated and analyzed by this approach and applying Vensim DSS software. The overall results of this study shows, increasing ease of access to loans and business plan quality can increase privatization rate, banks financial resources and lending to SMEs and decrease corruption. It also shows, increasing the revenue and SME's cash flows will follow increasing loan repayment probability and decreasing bad debts.

In the recent years, developments in the field of information and telecommunications are pursued by major changes in different areas of human life. Human has constantly employed the technology and track record of human life is abundant with innovation in information and communication technologies (ICT) which are called as new or high- technology. Therefore, ICT Development Indices (IDI) are remarkably important. This research purports to design a model of system dynamics (SD) on the policy of upgrading indices of Iran ICT network. Accordingly, after investigating the IDI and mining the indices, the causal loops and flowchart are depicted through using the SD (system dynamics). The results of simulation show that the behavior of studied key variables, after performing enhancing economic growth policies, improved the quality and quantity of ICT infrastructure, social indices, the culture of employing ICT, and the technical knowledge of ICT operators and the enhancing process has accelerated.

Due to the intensity of competition, rapid obsolescence of technologies and rapidly changing customer needs in recent years, new product development (NPD) in manufacturing industries has become a very important success factor. Hence, identifying factors that influence the success of NPD has been a central point for many researchers, each of whom has narrowly looked only at one certain aspect in it and ignoring the interconnection among different factors pertaining to it. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to design a comprehensive process model of factors affecting NPD. To reach this end, different factors were identified after exploring previous researches using meta-synthesis and finally, a process model was designed based on interpretive structural modeling (ISM). The findings of meta-synthesis show that 29 factors affect NPD. Also, the process model suggests that these different factors fall into 12 levels, among which environmental, cultural and managerial actors are the fundamental ones and of great importance.

In different studies, the effect of cultural differences, in national scope, on managerial systems have been explored. The aim of this article is to investigate the relationship between national culture and institutional advancement (based on Hofstede model and Global Competitiveness Report). So, first by cluster analysis(k-means technique), the countries have been classified in two type so that in type Ι, the score of "uncertainty avoidance", “power distance" and " masculinity " are higher than those in type ΙΙ and " long-term orientation" and "individualism" are lesser. Then the Hypothesizes tested by Mann-Whitney analytical test. The results indicate that the institutional scores are meaningfully different between two cultural clusters.

Competitiveness level of countries is one of an important index that contains most of the micro and macro economy variables. Thus the main purpose of this study is to design a heuristic model of Global Competitiveness Index in the frame of two-stage DEA and evaluate the efficiency of this index –regards to the 1404 Vision Document- for 40 Asia and North Africa countries from 2010-2011 till 2014-2015. The data collected from the World Economic Forum reports and analyzed by using two-stage DEA and WIN QSB software. The results show that efficiency growth of Global Competitiveness Index does not have an appropriate trend and achieving the goals of 1404 Vision Document require to set reference units that are obtained from this study, as the benchmarks of Iran.

This article has tried to simulate the fuel consumption and the assigned subsidies to this sector. For the aim of simulation، first we have identified the influential factors in fuel pricing including assigned subsidies to this sector، and then the influential factors in fuel consumption. The relation between different variables is shown by causal diagrams using system dynamics approach. Then the research model is simulated and analyzed by Vensim DSS. The results showed that fuel consumption will have an ascending trend in the period of 35 years. and decrease in consumption due to decreasing fuel subsidies will happen just in short time. sensivity analysis showed that budget shortage is an important factor in shaping the fluctuations of the fuel subsidies. At the end for the aim of forcasting consumption behavior in future different scenarios such as reducing the subsidies in 25 and 50 percent are examined and results are discussed.

Managers’ performance as an important factor plays an essential role in the success or failure of organizations. Reaches show that managers with higher level of motivation are more successful in performing their jobs. This is a survey research whose population include managers in the public offices in Fars province. 10 general offices were selected randomly whose employees numbered 119 people. Social capital model and Miner’s open-ended sentences in the form of a 66-item questionnaire were applied to collect data. The data was analyzed by Pierson correlation coefficient and multivariate regression. The results indicated that there are significant meaningful relationship between social capital and managerial motivation. It means that promoting social capital can promote managerial motivation. In turn، it can improve their performance.

According to gas development in most provinces in recent years and the expansion of gas transfer pipeline in parallel، paying attention to project supply chains and related risks is necessary more than past. Due to specific structure of project supply chain based on government regulations، this article is aimed at presenting a model to mitigate risks on projects supply chain in State gas companies. In order to do that، we have used a mixed methodology approach in this research. According to Meta-synthesis and content validity، risk mitigation strategies are identified and classified. Moreover، by using Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM)، mutual relationships and the degree of influences of each strategy on each other are recognized. Results show that managers must attend to those strategies that have high driving power and low dependency than low driving power and high dependency. As a result، by concentrate on key variable، supply chain risks can be mitigated effectively.

In this study, manager’s decision-making pattern and its internal parameter effects in industrial departments with respect to behavioral and rational perspective were investigated. For this purpose, a questionnaire was designed, and mention the 50 number of managers of manufacturing industries were interviewed and data were collected with respect to the inter organization factors affecting decision making process, including identifying behavioral errors and general information related to the managers. Then, based on the logistic regression, the pattern of the model decision-making the managers were designed. Results showed that more than 68 percent of the managers surveyed decided based on the behavioral patterns. Also, variables such as gender, education-level, experience and manager’s ownership affected the choice of their decisions making pattern. In addition, the behavioral errors lead them to behavioral decision making. Given than the behavioral errors in the organizations usually leads to a lack of optimal decision making by managers, the necessary strategies are provided to reduce errors and to obtain the optimal decision making pattern by the managers.