فهرست مطالب فاطمه عبدالشاه

The production of concrete consumes huge amounts of natural resources. Due to the consumption of natural resources for cement production, using industrial waste materials has gained interest among researchers. Environmental issues are one of the most important issues that should be taken into consideration. Zeolite and bentonite are considered as natural pozzolans, they are easy to extract and count as environmentally-friendly raw material compared to ordinary Portland cement (OPC). In the current study, these materials were utilized blended with other materials and individually. Compressive strength, water absorption, tensile strength, and elastic modulus of concrete samples were evaluated. Moreover, 10 different mixing designs were designed to produce samples in the same curing condition with different content of bentonite and zeolite. These samples were cured for 7, 28, and 90 days. To investigate the properties of these materials as an alternative to OPC in the concrete, the results are compared with the blank sample. The optimum mixture was obtained by 6 wt. % of zeolite and 6 wt. % of bentonite, which was gained 93% of the compressive strength of the blank sample, i.e., 12.25 MPa, after 28 days of curing. This study also showed that the water absorption of samples with zeolite and bentonite had increased in comparison with the blank sample and the optimum amount in tension was observed 10 wt. % of bentonite.

This paper aims to consider the effects of macroeconomic variables on the stability of banks using the data from 17 banks during the period 1386-1391. For this purpose, the effect of macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, inflation and GDP growth rate on bank stability is measured. To obtain a composite index for bank stability, we calculate the weight average cost-to-total income ratio, bad debts-to-total debt ratio, net profit-to-total asset ratio, and loans-to-deposits ratio variables. The results indicate that inflation has a significant and negative effect on the stability of the banks. The interest rate variable has a significant and positive impact on the stability, but the effect of GDP growth is significant and negative. This negative effect is because of the negative correlation between the GDP growth rate and the profits of banks. Also, the effect of Herfindal-Hirshman index, as a concentration index in the banking industry, is measured. This effect is positive but not significant.

Because of prevalence of non-performing loans in Iranian banking sector, it is important to estimate the default probability of borrowers in order to effectively manage credit risk. This paper conducts stress testing for default probabilities in banking industry of Iran. We apply the credit portfolio approach model developed by Wilson (1997) and analyze the impacts of various macroeconomic shocks on default rates of banks. In the constructed model, we first estimate the effects of macroeconomics variables on default rate. Then the dynamic relationship between selected macroeconomics variables is estimated by a VAR model. Residuals obtained in the two previous steps were used to construct the covariance matrix for system of equations. Finally, using the Monte-Carlo method, a path of default probabilities is simulated in a one-year horizon under different scenarios. We compare default rates under different stress scenarios with baseline scenario to identify the effects of different shocks. The results of simulation show that unemployment rate shock has been the most harmful factor for default probabilities, followed by exchange rates shock. A shock to GDP growth also affects default rates significantly. Inflation shock generates the least important effect on default rates, consistent with the insignificant coefficient of inflation rate in the estimated default probability equation. A simultaneous shock to all macroeconomic variables has higher impact on the default rates in lower tails than upper tails. The results also show the effects of shocks decrease with the passage of time.

In this paper, we estimate losses due to credit risk using stress test and calculate the minimum capital requirements under distressed and baseline scenarios. We use quarterly data from 2003:Q1 to 2016:Q2 (50 observations) for Iran’s banking industry and the economy. In the first step, the default probabilities are estimated using a series of macroeconomic variables. Then, the default probabilities are simulated for one year time horizon using Monte-Carlo method. And finally, by using Loss Given Default (LGD) values and Exposed at Default (EAD) amounts, portfolio loss distribution is calculated. For this purpose, a hypothetical portfolio will be build. EAD for each loans is drawn randomly and uniformly distributed and LGD is given a fixed value.
To estimate default probability equation, in addition to the Wilson’s linear model, Quantile regressions are used. The results show that the loss distributions for all scenarios are skewed to the right. The amount of loss in the 50th quantile regression is closed to the Wilson model, but the loss in the 10th and 90th quantile regressions are different. In fact, the Wilson’s model overestimate the loss of 10% qunatile regression and underestimate the loss of 90% qunatile regression.

In the systemic view¡ the term Resilience refers to “the preservation of system in the time of chaos”¡ and subsequently the Economic Resilience indicates per se¡ the ability of the economy to recover from an unexpected external shock¡ in toto. In this context¡ a sound banking system with low risk of default¡ solid capital reserves¡ and high rate of return which is pro rata¡ endowed with modicum degree of volatility and plausible rate of profitability¡ could potentially repulse any undue external shocks¡ Sine die. In this paper¡ an attempt is made to investigate de facto¡ the determinants of factors affecting the Equity ratio of 18 designated banks as a proxy for application of Resilience approach in the Iranian banking system for the sample period of 2005-2013¡ viz-a-viz¡ utilizing the Impulse-Response Model and Variance Decomposition Technique thereto. Meanwhile¡ we have specified the impact of GDP on capital formation of those banks under the study as supply shock and similarly¡ we have postulated the effect of liquidity as monetary shock¡ the impact of inflation rate as demand shock and also the amount of capital as another proxy for employing the resilience perspective in the economy¡ Ipso facto. However¡ to appraise the supply¡ money and demand shocks¡ we estimated the one standard deviation for each variable¡ de jure. The results prima facie¡ indicate that the amount of liquidity as monetary shock¡ bears the highest impact on capital formation of banks under the review¡ while the effects of demand and supply shocks on dependent variable have remained next to it¡ Sui generis. Thus¡ we conclude that¡ the monetary shock is the most effective and significant factor affecting on capital formation of banking industry that eventually can depict the outstanding resilience outlook in the time of crisis¡ and will bestow upon profound precedence¡ compared to demand and supply shocks¡ Sine qua non.

In this paper, resilience of an economic system is measured by an overall index, based on the Borman et al. index, for the period of 1996-2013. The results are then compared with Briguglio index. To measure the final index, the first step is to make variables have a similar direction. The second step is normalization of variables that their values reside between zero and one. In the last step we calculate the weighted average of variables. The value of Resilience Index is between zero and one. The closer the index to zero, the less resilient will be the economic system. In versus, The closer the index to one, the more resilient the economy. The results show that resilience was low during whole the period under consideration. Resilience reached its peak in 2001, because the budget deficit and inflation rate were reduced and governance has been improved. Then the trend started to decline. The Resilience index reached its minimum level after year 2007. According to the indeces, the main reasons were governance and market efficiency indeces.

The Economic Resistance can be designated as empowering the national economy against the menace of stochastic changes, various risks, internal and external threats in toto. These maladies may occur in the path of progress and prosperity of any country. The economic resistance could pave the way for achieving the prospectus targets of the economy and optimal utilization of opportunities thereto. Hence, conceptually it can bear certain analogy with prevailing economic literature of Economic Resilience. In this context a social system is resilient, where it can de facto absorb the temporary or permanent risks and adjust itself with rapidly changing conjectures of the economy without exhausting its efficiency Ipso facto. In this paper, an attempt is made to expound prima facie the very term and measurement indices of Economic Resilience in the economy. These indices are per se classifies into two groups of national and regional levels. It is obvious that, more awareness regarding the concerned issues and efforts of some other countries for implementation of economic resistance in their respective socio-politico-economic setup can be helpful for more robust and meticulous evaluation of its principles and policies quid pro qua.

The major function of a financial market in the literature on economy represents a way to conduct and dedicate capital. Banks in developing countries have a main role in this way; we can find some variables effective on market structure to advocate capital more efficiently. This paper studies the importance and impact of macroeconomic variables on banking system structure within 15 out of 20 years of Iran's perspective plan. The study has used a fixed-effect panel data method during 2002 to 2009. The results show that the logarithmic form of per capita GDP is the most important variable in market power description as a proxy for institution development. Other institutional variables such as economic freedom index, governance index and financial freedom index have the second importance after the bank special variables (loans to asset ratio and total asset logarithmic form). Inflation rate has a little significant effect on the structure of banking industry, and GDP growth rate has no significant effect on it.

Tuberculosis is an important cause of death in some countries. The world health organization estimates that if stronger measures are not taken up to control the prevalence of this disease, from 2000 to 2020 a billion people will be infected by the bacterium. According to time consuming of common detection methods of Mycobact-erium tuberculosis such as culture, it is necessary to evaluate a rapid detection tests such as PCR. Rapid diagnosis of tuberculosis may have profound effects in patients’ care According to importance of rapid detection and treatment of tuberculosis and for determine of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of PCR by using IS6110 this study was