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مرتضی شجاع

  • محمدرضا تخشید، مرتضی شجاع*

    در سال های اخیر برنامه استقرار سیستم دفاع موشکی روسیه نه در قالب برنامه ای تاکتیکی، بلکه مانند برنامه ای راهبردی ارتقا یافته است. این برنامه شامل توسعه ابزارهای شناسایی، رهگیری و هشدار زودهنگام و استقرار آن ها در مناطق راهبردی در قلمرو روسیه و برخی کشورهای متحد آن است. این پرسش مطرح است که چرا روسیه اقدام به توسعه و استقرار سامانه های دفاع موشکی کرده است؟ در دسته بندی کلان، این نوشتار از دسته پژوهش های کیفی است که در ارایه داده های مربوط به سامانه های دفاع موشکی به روش تاریخی و زمینه آزمون فرضیه به روش تجربی انجام شده است. در قالب این روش، در این نوشتار به سخنان مقام های روس و بررسی اسناد سیاست خارجی و امنیتی روسیه و هم زمانی این برنامه نیز توجه کرده ایم. فرضیه نوشتار این است که تلاش غرب برای استقرار سپر دفاع موشکی موجب شد رهبران روسیه احساس تهدید کنند و امنیت و جایگاه بین المللی کشورشان را به عنوان یک قدرت بزرگ و یکی از دو کانون اصلی قدرت نظامی در خطر ببینند. در نتیجه، سامانه های دفاع موشکی خود را از نظر کیفی ارتقا دادند و در مناطق راهبردی مستقر کردند. در این نوشتار دریافتیم بین این سه متغیر، استقرار سپر دفاع موشکی غرب، ادراک رهبران روسیه و استقرار سیستم دفاع موشکی روسیه، رابطه معناداری وجود دارد. افزون بر آن، استقرار نیروهای تهاجمی آمریکا در اروپا که در پی خروج واشینگتن از پیمان کنترل تسلیحات پدید آمد نیز در پیدایش چنین رویکردی موثر بوده است. همچنین یافته های نوشتار نشان می دهد که هم سطح فناوری سامانه های دفاع موشکی روسیه به نسبت نمونه غربی آن پایین تر است و هم قلمرو پوشش آن ها محدودتر است.

    کلید واژگان: روسیه, آمریکا, اس-300, اس- 400, اس- 500, دفاع موشکی, ماهواره, ورونژ
    Mohammad Reza Takhshid, Morteza Shoja *
    Introduction

    The Russian army is developing some reconnaissance and interceptor vehicles such as the S.300 systems to defend strategic areas belonging to some of its allied countries. Another defensive shield system was also produced on a regional scale, such as the S-400 which is more capable than the S-300 system. During this process, the Russian military began production of the S-500 defense system. Production sites of S-300 and S-400 missile systems were established in some vital regions of Russia (in Kaliningrad and Crimea) and the territory of some allied countries. However, the Russian defense shield is technically weaker and more limited compared to the Western countries defense shield, but without a doubt, this plan will not remain at these levels.  The development of Russia's defense shield means that Russian leaders intend to defend their country against the threat of Western ballistic missiles. Of course, these equipments increase the offensive power of Western countries, especially by carrying tools and increasing missile defense systems. One of the main tools of Russia's defense shield is the S-300 missile system.The PMU S-300 model is capable of countering an attack missile with a speed of Mach 2-8 and a range of 1000 km. This system was established in Armenia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Belarus. The S-400 system is also capable of shooting down stealth aircraft, ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles and drones with a range of 400 km. But two tools only work on atmosphere.The S-500 system is also in the final stage of production with a range of 600 km and a speed of Mach 7, which is capable of shooting down hypersonic missiles and spy satellites. It is expected to be fulfilled by 2025. In addition, the Russian military has developed some ground-based early warning radars called Voronezh.The Voronezh MD model has an inspection area of 6000 km and has the capacity to detect 500 targets. Of course, this radar is only an early warning system and is not compatible with any interceptor device. Reconnaissance satellite technology has also been used for defense. Currently, several Cosmos class satellites are in service and will be deployed in outer space for this purpose. The Russian military plans to upgrade this technology and surveillance. The plan to deploy Russian missile defense systems appears not as a tactical plan, but as a strategic plan. This plan is simultaneously qualitative and quantitative in the development of detection and interception systems as well as early warning systems.Research Question: “Why is Russia thinking of creating a missile defense shield?

    Research Hypothesis

    The hypothesis of the article is that "the concern of Russian leaders about the Western plan to create a missile defense shield has led to the development of their own missile defense tools."

    Methodology (and Theoretical Framework if there are)

    This is a historical and descriptive method with an emphasis on monitoring Russia's anti-ballistic systems, as well as examining the country's official doctrine in the field of security and foreign policy.  This research also deals with the situation of the Russian authorities.   

    Results and Discussion

    The research results show that the US and NATO defense shield was the main motivation of the Russian authorities to create missile defense systems. The US and NATO missile defense shields consists of SM3 interceptors, Aegis radars and early warning satellites. However, each part is separated but they are connected by all. They will be deployed in four stages in the mentioned areas, which can defend the American forces and its allies. Those regions are American homeland, Alaska, Greenland, South Persian Gulf and South Korea. They are also carried by destroyers in the Mediterranean and the Pacific. In parallel, NATO is building its own defense shields in some places in the center and east of the continent, which are: The radar station in Turkey, the Aegis radar system in Poland and the THAAD system in Romania and the command section in Germany. The four Aegis radar systems installed on the ships they command are in the port of Rota (Spain). Some say that the third and fourth parts of the defense shield are capable of targeting Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles. The defensive shield also protects Western countries that have developed their offensive capacity in conjunction with defensive tools. Due to the withdrawal from the INF Treaty, there are no restrictions against the West. Putin’s opposition to Trump’s extension of the New Start Treaty without any conditions and Trump’s insistence on concluding a comprehensive agreement annoyed Russian authorities. In addition, Russian authorities are not happy about the establishment of a Western defensive shield near the country’s western borders. These actions cause Russia to react in the same way.

    Conclusion

    Russia's action in the development of defense systems is one of the main factors of change in the military doctrine of this country. Previously, the Russian military organized its strategic tools around the doctrine of nuclear deterrence and parity. But Russia is trying in the same direction in response to the deployment of Western missile defense elements in some strategic parts of the continent. As a result, Russia's new doctrine is based on an offensive and defensive strategy. Nevertheless, the current interactions between the West and Russia have created a new round of arms competition, especially in strategic defense tools. Russian defense systems are not at the level of their Western counterparts either in terms of content or technical quality. But these are accompanied by offensive tools that have been developed in strategic areas to pose the same threats against the West. According to this emerging trend, the Russian missile defense zone will also cover more strategic areas in the future.

    Keywords: Russia, Missile, America, Defense Shield, NATO, S-300, S-400 S-500, Voronezh, Satelite
  • اکبر ولی زاده*، مرتضی شجاع
    طی سال های اخیر ارتش روسیه برخی جنگ افزارهای نظامی خود را نوسازی کرد که از مهم ترین آنها، افزارهای انتقال کلاهک های هسته ای بوده است. در این زمینه برخی سلاح های پیشرفته و نو شامل موشک های قاره پیما و کروز، راکت های مافوق صوت و زیردریایی های هسته ای باسرنشین و بی سرنشین در اختیار نیروهای مسلح روسی قرار داده شدند. پرسش اصلی پژوهش این است که چرا روسیه به نوسازی وسایل انتقال کلاهک های هسته ای خود اقدام کرده است؟ در فرضیه بیان می شود که اقدام های امریکا و ناتو در استقرار سپر دفاع موشکی در اروپا موجب شد که روسیه انواع وسیله حمل و پرتاب کلاهک های اتمی خود را نوسازی کند. در پژوهش با رویکردی توصیفی - تبیینی، از روش تحلیل کیفی اسناد دولتی (مانند راهبرد امنیت ملی) و بیانات مقامات عالی رتبه روسیه، افزون بر بررسی دیدگاه های نظریه پردازان و کارشناسان داخلی و خارجی استفاده شده است. اقدام غرب در استقرار سامانه های دفاع موشکی از دید رهبران روسیه تهدیدی وجودی تلقی می شود و در نتیجه مهم ترین ابزار موثر مسکو در برابر تهدیدهای راهبردی غرب، اجرای برنامه نوسازی نظامی با هدف افزایش توانایی حمل و پرتاب کلاهک های اتمی برای بازدارندگی و نیز حفظ توانایی تلافی برای پاسخ به حمله اتمی غرب بوده است. نوآوری نظامی روسیه دربرگیرنده تولید موشک هایی است که سپرهای دفاع موشکی امریکا و ناتو قادر به رهگیری و انهدام آنها نباشند. استقرار این سامانه های تهاجمی بر توانایی بازدارندگی و دفاعی روسیه در برابر غرب افزوده است.
    کلید واژگان: روسیه, سپر دفاع موشکی غرب, بازدارندگی, معمای امنیت, فرهنگ راهبردی روسیه
    Akbar Valizadeh *, Morteza Shoja
    Over the past two decades, the Russian military has upgraded certain categories of its military equipment (e.g., nuclear warheads). As part of this military modernization strategy, some of the old types of missiles are replaced with the new ones  including new submarine-launched and ground-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Additionally, the Russian military has begun new weapon research and development that had previously little place in the country's defense structure. The new program which started in the mid-2000s, include the production of cruise missiles, hypersonic missiles, and unmanned submarines. The evidence now shows that this program will be continued in the coming years.
    The main research question is as follows: Why has Russia decided to modernize its nuclear warheads in recent years? In the hypothesis, it is asserted that among all factors which have prompted Russia to upgrade its nuclear warheads, the United States and NATO policy of deploying missile defense shields has had the greatest impact on Russia’s military modernization program. Since Russian leaders consider the establishment of missile defense systems by the NATO allies as an existential threat to their country, it comes as no surprise that they have been investing in a program with the aim of acquiring new nuclear capability for deterrence as well as for defense. The new weapon systems are developed to enhance Russia’s ability to retaliate in response to any aggressive actions including a nuclear attack by the US and NATO.
    In order to find suitable answers to the research question, the authors, with a descriptive-explanatory approach, rely on qualitative conceptual content analysis of government documents (such as national security strategy document) and the  statements made by the high-ranking Russian officials. Furthermore, the views of international relations scholars, security specialists, and experts on Russian military affairs are explored for the purpose of descriptive data collection and analysis.
    Two factors have contributed more than any other variables to the strategic culture of the Russian politicians and people: 1. The peoples’ experiences of the recent decades; 2. The leaders’ belief system which is influenced and shaped by geostrategic factors, military technology, and military organizations. Hostile and rival pawers’ d
    eployment of the defense shields throughout Europe deprives Russia of the advantage of nuclear retaliation, thus giving the West the advantage of a first strike. This situation might shift the geopolitical balance to the disadvantage of Russia. Given the past history of Russia as a great power, it is basically inconceivable for the Russiansto accept the role of a minor power or a subordinate partner in the international system. Despite all itsshortcomings (e.g., a relatively low economic and technological development in the Global North), USSR(and later Russia as its leadingsuccessor state) has been regarded as amilitarily dominantstate in the post-WWII  international system.
    From the point of view of the Russian leaders, the West's claims about the need for the missile defense shield to counter Iran's missile threats are exaggerated. Russia has hundreds of nuclear warheads that enable its leaders to deal a fatal blow to any enemy in any part of the world. The missile defense shield deprives Russia of this advantage. Even if the US and NATO missile defense shield poses no direct threat to the Russians, Moscow considers its deployment in Europe psychologically a negative, detrimental, and debilitating political move by Russia’s adversaries.
    In response to the missile defense shield, Russian leaders initially sought security guarantees from the West, but Western leaders refused to accommodate Moscow’s request. They did not even accept Russia's offer to cooperate in NATO's missile defense shield plan in Europe, or even to grant Moscow access to the Qibla radar station in Azerbaijan. In response, Russia first suspended its membership in the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty, and subsequently developed new delivery systems including the following ICBMS: a) the Sarmat  ICBM with a speed of 25,000 km per hour, a range of 10,000 km, and carrying 10 to 25 warheads; b) Yars ICBM, with a range of 11,000 km which can carry 6 to 30 nuclear warheads; c) Avangard rockets, reportedly with a record speed of 20 times the speed of sound, which means that no missile defense shield can destroy it; d) Burustenik cruise missile, which can be hidden from missile defense shield radars due to its low altitude flight; e) Alexander nuclear missile, with a speed of up to 2600 meters per second, which can  neutralize missile defense shield; f) advanced Borya-2 submarines capable of carrying sea-based Bulava ballistic missiles, which have a range of 8,000 km; g) Poseidon nuclear unmanned submarine, which was designed to destroy coastal areas. With these initiatives, Russian leaders modernized their nuclear warheads and were able to maintain their nuclear balance with the West and maintain their position as one of the world's two leading nuclear powers. Russia's military innovation includes the production of missiles that the missile defense shields of the US and its western allies cannot intercept and destroy. The deployment of these offensive systems has increased Russia's ability to deter and defend against the West.
    Keywords: Russia, West Missile Defense Shield, deterrence, security dilemma, Russia's Strategic Culture, Delivery systems
  • محمدرضا تخشید، مرتضی شجاع*

    هدف نوشتار پیش رو، بررسی دلیل های مداخله روسیه در بحران سوریه است. پرسش نوشتار این است که چرا روسیه در بحران سوریه به نفع دولت این کشور مداخله کرد؟ فرضیه این است که نگرانی از تحدید قلمرو نفوذ در خاورمیانه موجب شد که روسیه در بحران سوریه به نفع دولت این کشور مداخله کند. برای تبیین، نوشتار از قلمروسازی ژیوپلیتیکی به عنوان چارچوب مفهومی بهره برده است. از سال 1991 تاکنون تحول های مناطق ژیوپلیتیکی، از جمله در خاورمیانه، بیشتر به ضرر روسیه رقم خورد؛ زیرا متحدان و دوستان آن در خاورمیانه یکی پس از دیگری سرنگون شدند. صدام در سال 2003 از قدرت برکنار شد. چندی بعد، اجرای طرح خاورمیانه بزرگ موجب شد که جایگاه حاکمان اقتدارگرا به خطر بیفتد. خیزش های عربی نیز این روند را تشدید کرد. بدین شکل، زمینه نفوذ روسیه به کمترین حالت رسید. در این خیزش ها دولت معمر قذافی در لیبی سرنگون شد و دولت بشار اسد در سوریه تا آستانه سرنگونی پیش رفت. سوریه که از دوره اتحاد شوروی بخشی از قلمرو نفوذ آن بود، آخرین نقطه حضور روسیه در خاورمیانه به شمار می رود. باور رهبران روسیه این بوده است که با سرنگونی اقتدارگراها در خاورمیانه که بیشتر از دوستان روسیه هستند، یا دولت های غرب گرا بر سر کار می آیند یا تندروها که هر دو شکل، علیه منافع روسیه در منطقه است. در صورتی که دولت بشار اسد نیز فرو می ریخت، روسیه در خاورمیانه به قدرتی حاشیه ای تبدیل می شد. در نتیجه، ضرورت حفظ قلمرو نفوذ در این کشور و خاورمیانه موجب شد که روسیه در بحران سوریه مداخله کند.

    کلید واژگان: ترتوس, جنگ داخلی سوریه, رقابت با آمریکا, روسیه, قلمرو نفوذ ژئوپلیتیکی
    MohammadReza Takhshid, Morteza Shoja *

    The aim of the present paper is to explain the Russian intervention in the Syrian crisis. The crisis is the most critical crisis within the Arab uprisings. Russia supported the Syrian government in the crisis, and was able to prevent it from being overthrown. The axial question of the document is that “Why has Russia intervened in favor of the Syrian government in this crisis?” The original answer to the document is that “Concern of diluting and eliminate of Russia’s sphere of influence in Syria and Middle East have caused Russia to intervene in the Syrian crisis in favor of the Syrian government.” The review of Russia’s foreign policy in the Middle East shows that it has sought to renew its influence since the early 2000s. But the developments in the region regularly took place against the interests of Moscow, as a result, its influence on the region was limited. With the overthrow of Saddam's government in 2003 and the Gaddafi government in 2011, only Syria remained as the Russian sphere of influence in the region. As a result, if the Baathist government of Syria was overthrown, not only would Russia lose its geopolitical interests in this country, but there would have been no influence in the Middle East; as a result, it would become a marginal power. Therefore, Russia's intervention in the Syria crisis was inevitable for the territory of the geopolitical influence of the regions.

    Keywords: Russia, Sphere of Influence, America, Arab Uprising, Syria Crisis, Libya Crisis
  • محمدرضا تخشید، مرتضی شجاع*
    هدف این نوشتار تبیین مداخله روسیه در بحران سوریه از منظر ژئوپلیتیک است. مداخله مسکو در بحران سوریه هم زمان با آغاز بحران شکل گرفت. صرف نظر از مواضع ابتدایی دمیتری مدودیف، در دوره های دیگر، خط مشی روسیه در برابر آن بحران به نفع دولت اسد بود. حمایت مسکو از دولت سوریه در ابعاد نظامی، سیاسی، اقتصادی و رسانه ای انجام شد. مهم ترین بعد کمک روسیه در این بحران به ورود مستقیم واحدهای نیروی هوایی و دریایی روسیه در آن در اواخر تابستان 2015 باز می گشت. در تاثیر این کمک ها موازنه نیروها به سود ارتش و نیروهای امنیتی سوریه تغییر کرد و آن ها توانستند بخش شایان توجهی از مناطق را از کنترل مخالفان و افراط گرایان خارج کنند. پرسش نوشتار این است که چرا روسیه در بحران سوریه مداخله کرد، در حالی که تا پیش از آن مسکو در هیچ یک از بحران های خارج از قلمرو اتحاد شوروی مداخله نکرده بود؟ فرضیه نوشتار این است که مجموعه ای از الزام های ژئوپلیتیکی موجب شد که روسیه در این بحران مداخله و از دولت اسد حمایت کند. برای سنجش این فرضیه از مدلی بهره گرفتیم که از سه مفهوم «ویژگی ژئوپلیتیکی»، «قلمروسازی ژئوپلیتیک»، «گذار ژئوپلیتیکی» گرفته شده است. موارد یادشده الزام های ژئوپلیتیک را در پی داشته است که روسیه را به مداخله در این بحران برانگیخت. این الزام ها، جلوگیری از تداوم عقب نشینی روسیه از غرب، مقابله با تروریسم، افراط گرایی و تجزیه طلبی، حفظ قلمرو نفوذ، حفظ توازن منطقه ای و حفظ ثبات منطقه ای هستند.
    کلید واژگان: الزام های ژئوپلیتیکی, جنگ داخلی سوریه, رقابت با آمریکا, روسیه, مقابله با تروریسم, ویژگی ژئوپلیتیکی
    Mohammad Reza Takhshid, Morteza Shoja *
    Undoubtedly the Syrian crisis is one of the most important current issues in the international system. This has paved the way for the presence of regional and trans-regional powers in the territory of this country. One of these powers, Russia, has intervened in this crisis in the interest of the Syrian government. Russia’s support in terms of political, economic and military-intelligence was carried out. Of course, the most important aspect of Russia's intervention in the Syrian crisis is direct military involvement in the crisis in the late summer of 2015. Under the influence of Russia's help and assistance, the positions of the Syrian army and its regional allies were strengthened and they were able to regain the control of a significant portion of the areas occupied by oppositions and extremists. In any case, Russia's actions in the Syrian crisis are of a special and unique nature. The question arisen here is “why Russia has intervened in the Syrian crisis, while it has not intervened in any of the Middle East crises so far?” The hypothesis is that “Geopolitical obligations have led Russia to intervene in the interests of the government in the Syrian crisis.” The research was conducted in an exploratory and empirical way, and is thus loyal to the positivist tradition. To measure the hypothesis, the research used a model of three concepts of “Geopolitical Feature”, “Geopolitical Territorialization” and, finally, “Geopolitical transition”. The geopolitical feature of the Middle East and Syria is so remarkable for Russia that Russia cannot be indifferent to their weight. Additionally, Syria was a part of Russia's influence in the Middle East since the 1970s. Therefore, Russia is interested in preserving this geopolitical condition as it faces the West and terrorism’s geopolitical constraints. From the geopolitical point of view, the Middle East has been in transition since the collapse of the Soviet Union. But the developments in this region have generally been against Russia's interests. The emergence of Arab revolutions in the countries of the region have led to the overthrow of authoritarian governments and the replacement of democratic regimes (pro-western) and sectarian ones (extremists). This situation has endangered the geopolitical interests of Russia in this region. In particular, the Middle East is located in the adjacent of the Central Asian and Caucasian lands and the instability caused by the Arab revolutions, as a result, could have caused a wave of instability in these areas as well. The aforementioned provisions required Russia to intervene in the Syrian crisis. One of the most important requirements of Russia in the Syrian crisis was to compete with the United States and the West. The competition of two major powers is geostrategic so that in Eastern Europe the Balkans, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the Middle East, Afghanistan and the Far East are visible. Moscow has seen US policies in the Middle East diminishing its influence in the region. In line with this policy, the West has also intervened in the interest of the opposition in the Syrian crisis and for the benefit of extremist groups in secret. So, Syria became one of the geopolitical areas of competition for the two superpowers. Hence, Moscow did not have any choice except to intervene in the crisis of this country. Confronting terrorism, extremism and separatism was also one of the most important requirements for Russia's intervention in the Syrian crisis. In documents of Russian foreign and security policy, terrorism has been described as one of the most important security problems of the Country. During the terrorist attacks, hundreds of Russian citizens died and more were injured. Terrorism, which grew up in the context of the Caucasus separatism, generally emerged in the form of an extremist ideology and evolved. Hence, the crisis of terrorism in Russia has coincided with extremism and separatism. Regarding the Russian government's serious policies, the terrorists were restrained and suppressed.  But the atmosphere of insecurity from the civil war in Syria was a good environment for the growth of the terrorists. As a result, a significant number of citizens from Russia and Central Asia and the Caucasus regions participated in Syria. Getting power of the terrorists in this Country and their empowerment in their territory (in Russia, Central Asia and Caucasus) caused the emergence of a new wave of insecurity and assassination in the territory of the Soviet Union. This could re-ignite the controlled crisis of separatism in the Caucasus. Therefore, Russia's intervention in the Syrian crisis was necessary to confront them. Syria has been a part of Russia's influence in the Middle East and the Mediterranean since the 1970s. This country, along with Iraq, ensured Russia's presence in the Middle East and therefore it has been important from the geopolitical point of view. In the context of competing with the United States, Russia developed its relations with Syria not only in terms of military and strategic dimensions, but also in economic terms in order to maintain its influence in this country. The Syrian government was a geopolitical asset for Russia; As it guarantees the access to the Russian military to strategic spots in the Middle East, North Africa, and eventually South and South-East Europe. So the overthrow of the Syrian government by the opposition and extremists would have led to the loss of this geopolitical advantage. Instability in the periphery of Russia was generally in line with the interests of the West and against the interests of Russia. The occupation of Iraq by the US-led coalition, colored revolutions in the Soviet Union, the implementation of the Great Middle East Plan, the NATO intervention in the Middle East security processes, and similar occurrences have made the atmosphere of turbulence and, hence, brought about changes that often put Russia's interests in jeopardy. Therefore, Russian leaders are worried about any instability in the areas. The most serious worries in the Middle East were the Arabian uprising or sectarian states prone to extremism. So, Russia's intervention in the Syrian crisis sought to control instability in the country and the Middle East. In particular, the Russian leaders were confident that due to the proximity of the land, these instabilities would be broadened to the Soviet area from the Middle East and they will endanger their country’s interests in this area.
    Keywords: Countering Terrorism, Geopolitical Feature, Geopolitical Obligation, Rivalry with America, Russia, Syria Civil War
  • فائزه قاسمی*، مرتضی شجاع

    هدف از این پژوهش آن است که با روش توصیفی، مقایسه ای و تحلیلی، تحول در راهبردهای رسانه ای القاعده و داعش را بررسی کند. القاعده و داعش بیش از هر سازمان تروریستی دیگری در حوزه ی رسانه فعال بوده اند. بهویژه این مورد در اینترنت و شبکه های اجتماعی بیشتر بوده است. به رغم این که اقدامات دو سازمان، پراکنده و مقطعی به نظر می آید، اما یافته های پژوهش نشان می دهد که این دو در برنامه های رسانه ای خود از راهبردهای مشخصی پیروی می کنند. در این راهبرد، ابزارها و اهداف رسانه ای، جامعه ی مخاطبان هواداران و دشمنان و در نهایت امر تاکتیک های برقراری ارتباط با آنها مشخص بوده و با در نظر گرفتن برخی مقتضیات، ویژگی های ابزار رسانه ای و جامعه ی هدف انتخاب شده اند. افزون بر آن، وجود برخی روش های متفاوت تمایزاتی را در حوزه ی راهبرد رسانه ای آن دو پدید آورده است. هم چنین دو سازمان در محیط راهبردی خاورمیانه بعضا اهداف رقابتی را دنبال می کنند، به طوری که این رقابت ها به محیط رسانه نیز کشیده شده است.

    کلید واژگان: القاعده, داعش, راهبرد رسانه ای, جنگ نرم رسانه ای, شبکه های اجتماعی

    We are Looking for analysis of al Qaeda and Isis media strategies with descriptive, comparative and analytical methods. More than any other terrorist organizations, isis and al-Qaeda use social networks and the Internet as media tools. Both of them have had Specified and defined media strategies. In these strategies, tools, goals, audience, as well as tactics of communicating with them, has been revealed. They compete in the media environment, as well as in reality. So some of their different methods, make their media strategies different.

  • اکبر ولیزاده، غلامرضا فیروزیان حاجی، مرتضی شجاع
    هدف از این مقاله بررسی ویژگی های فرهنگ راهبردی جمهوری اسلامی ایران است. مولفه های متعددی بر شکل دهی فرهنگ راهبردی کشورها موثرند، از دیدگاه برخی از محققان روبط بین الملل فرهنگ بازتاب عمیقی بر تصمیم گیری استراتژیک دارد و در سال های اخیر تحقیق و مکاشفه درباره نقش آن در امنیت ملی و بین الملل دوباره جان گرفته است. سوال اصلی این پژوهش آن است که ویژگی های فرهنگ راهبردی جمهوری اسلامی ایران کدام است و این ویژگی ها از چه مولفه ها و متغیرهایی ناشی شده است. این پژوهش با رویکرد توصیفی و تحلیلی این فرضیه را مطرح می کند که تجارب تاریخی، آموزه های دین اسلام و جغرافیا بیش از هر مولفه دیگری در شکل دهی فرهنگ راهبردی نقش داشته اند تحت تاثیر متغیرهای یادشده فرهنگ راهبردی ممیزاتی یافته که مهم ترین آنها سوءظن به بیگانه، نگرش مبتنی بر تهدیدزا بودن محیط منطقه ای و بین المللی، اعتقاد به قدرت برتر منطقه ای و آمادگی نظامی درون زا هستند.
    کلید واژگان: ایران, فرهنگ راهبردی, تجارب تاریخی, آموزه های مذهبی, سوءظن به بیگانه
    Akbar Valizadeh, Reza Firoziyan, Morteza Shoja
    The purpose of this article is to examine the characteristics of the Islamic Republic of Iran's strategic culture. Several factors contribute to the shaping of culture A strategy countries. From the perspective of a number of scholars of international relations culture has a huge influence on strategic decisions. In recent years, research on the role of national and international security is again considered. The main question of this study is that the characteristics of the Islamic Republic of Iran is the strategic culture and the characteristics of what factors and variables are derived.This research is descriptive and analytical approach to hypothesize that the historical experience, the teachings of Islam and geography than any other component involved in shaping strategic culture.
    Keywords: Iran, strategic culture, historical experience, religious teachings, suspicion of alien
  • فاطمه سلیمانی پورلک، مرتضی شجاع
    هدف مقاله پیش رو شناسایی عوامل موثر در فرایند نظامی شدن خزر است. سیاست خزر با نظامی شدن این دریا وارد دور جدید شده است، فرایندی که ظهور آن به تحولات سال 2002 باز می گردد. تا این سال توان نظامی کشورهای حوزه خزر به اندازه یک گارد ساحلی بود، اما در سال 2002 متعاقب افزایش تنش ها بر سر کیفیت رژیم حقوقی دریا و به ویژه رزمایش بزرگ دریایی روسیه، گرایش به شکل دهی نیروی دریایی در کشورهای همسایه جان گرفت. از آن زمان به این سو میزان سرمایه گذاری ها و ابتکارهای این کشورها برای توسعه توان نظامی در دریا افزایش یافته است. افزون بر آن، کشورهای غربی، به ویژه آمریکا در این فرایند تاثیرگذار بوده اند. با توجه به گرایش این کشورها به تضعیف موقعیت روسیه و ایران در خزر از طریق تقویت کشورهای آذربایجان، قزاقستان و ترکمنستان، واشنگتن تلاش کرد تا سرمایه و ادوات لازم را در اختیار آنها قرار دهند. در مجموع اختلاف بر سر رژیم حقوقی دریای خزر، رقابت های منطقه ای و در نهایت، رقابت های روسیه و آمریکا مهم ترین متغیرهای تاثیرگذار در نظامی شدن دریاچه خزر بوده است.
    کلید واژگان: نظامی شدن خزر, نیروی دریایی, رژیم حقوقی, کاسفور, بریگاد خزر
    F. Soleimanipoorlak, M. Shoja
    This article aims to identify the effective factors in the process of militarization of Caspian Sea. By militarization, Caspian policy entered a new round, a process which started from 2002. Until this year, the military power of the countries in the region was limited to a coast guard, but in 2002, because of the tensions over the legal regime of the Caspian Sea, especially after Russia’s naval maneuver, trends among the neighbors for establishing naval forces came to the life. Since that time, the amount of investments and initiatives for developing military power at Sea has been increased in these countries. In addition, western countries, especially America, has been influential in this process. Given the tendency of these countries to weaken the position of Russia and Iran in the region, through strengthening countries like Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, Washington tried to give the necessary capital and equipment to these countries.Generally, the dispute over the legal status of Caspian Sea, regional competitions and ultimately, the competition between Russia and America are the most important effective variables to the militarization of Caspian Sea.
  • مرتضی شجاع
    حضور قدرتهای فرامنطقه ای در خاورمیانه و آثار آن بر کیفیت نظم امنیتی منطقه یکی از مهمترین امور مورد علاقه پژوهشگران این منطقه بوده است. پس از جنگ جهانی دوم تاکنون آمریکا یکی از مهمترین بازیگران مداخله گر در منطقه بوده و نقش تعیین کننده ای در ساختار امنیتی آن داشته است. اخیرا واشنگتن نسبت به توسعه قلمرو ناتو در خاورمیانه از طریق پذیرش اعضای همکار و شریک اقدام نمود. پژوهش حاضر نشان می دهد که این رفتار راهبردی در چارچوب اهداف امنیتی ایالات متحده همچون افزایش دامنه نفوذ و سلطه در منطقه، شکل دهی نظم امنیتی دلخواه در منطقه، مقابله و مهار قدرت رو به رشد ایران، کمک به عادی سازی روابط اعراب و اسرائیل از طریق عضویت آنها در ناتو، تسریع روند اصلاحات در خاورمیانه، مقابله با تروریسم بنیادگرای اسلامی، امنیت ذخایر انرژی و خطوط انتقال آن، تامین امنیت دولتهای عرب غربگرا و... صورت پذیرفت. این اقدام که از سوی اعراب و اسرائیل نیز مورد استقبال قرار گرفته است، در چشم انداز امنیت در خاورمیانه نقش تعیین کننده ای دارد و ناتو را به یکی از مهمترین بازیگران منطقه تبدیل خواهد کرد. اگرچه ناتو مقابله با تهدیدات بین المللی را سرلوحه کار خود قرار داده و از این نظر حضور ناتو در خاورمیانه در مهار تهدیدها آثار مثبتی دارد، اما با توجه به اینکه ناتو سازمانی غربگرا و در خدمت منافع امنیتی غرب است، می توان مدعی شد که حضور ناتو در خاورمیانه بر منافع امنیتی ایران آثار منفی خواهد داشت.
    کلید واژگان: آمریکا, نظم امنیتی منطقه ای, ناتو, ابتکار همکاری های استانبول, امنیت انرژی
    Morteza Shoja
    The presence of extra-regional powers in the Middle East and their impact on the quality of security order of the region is one of the important issues which have attracted the attention of the observers. Since World War II till date the United States has been an important player which has actively intervened in the region and has had a determining role in its security structure. In this direction the United States has recently tried to expand NATO's sphere of operation toward the Middle East region by admitting new partners and collaborators. The present article is of the view that this strategic behaviour of the Untied States is within the objectives of security framework of that country. These objectives can be enumerated as follow: expansion of its sphere of influence and hegemony in the region, confrontation and containment of the growing power of the Islamic Republic of Iran, helping normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries by participating them in NATO's programme and organs, accelerating process of reforms in the Middle East, fighting against Islamic fundamentalism and radicalism and terrorist activities emanating from it, ensuring the security of energy resources and their safe transfer to the United States and its allies and providing support for pro-West Arab governments. These measures have been welcomed by Israel and pro-Western Arabs and will have important effects on the security of the Middle East and will make NATO a significant Middle East player. It is true that NATO's main objective is facing international threats to peace and security and in this way it can ensure the Middle East's stability but NATO being a Western security organization will facilitate the objectives of the United States and its allies and therefore, it can be said that the presence of NATO in the Middle East will have adverse effect on security interests of Iran.
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