فهرست مطالب مریم سادات کلاهی

Healthy family is the foundation of the future health of the society and it needs solutions for the social and cultural reforms. The divorce has reached its critical point in Iran and many families are involved in it, so it has caused many researchers to investigate this issue. The main purpose of the present study is to carry out future studies on the divorce status in the future generations of Iranian families in 2041 development vision horizon with emphasis on the psychosocial pathology model of the family and it can help making relationship among the studies and achieving a coherent result in the dispersed ones. The research method is qualitative in screenwriting type. One of the objectives of future studies is “describing alternative futures” and screenwriting is one of its mediums. The statistical population of this study included family specialists (sociologists, family lawyers, psychologists, faculty members) in 2019. Considering the data saturation, 19 specialists were selected through purposive sampling method and were interviewed through semi-structured interview. Content analysis was used to analyze the results of the interviews. The results showed that economic, social, cultural, academic-educational, legal-regulatory, psychological, and familial factors were intervening factors in increasing the frequency of divorce in coming years. Moreover, the results showed that codifying pivotal screens from divorce status with the emphasis on psychosocial damages can be effective on the divorce status in the future generations of Iranian families in 2041 development vision horizon.

The divorce has reached its critical point in Iran and many families are involved in it, so it has caused many researchers to investigate this issue. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the optimal scenario of divorce status in future generations of the Iranian family in a 20-year perspective.

The research method is qualitative in screenwriting type. One of the objectives of future studies is “describing alternative futures” and screenwriting is one of its mediums. The statistical population of this study included family specialists (sociologists, family lawyers, psychologists, faculty members) in 2019. Considering the data saturation, 19 specialists were selected through purposive sampling method and were interviewed through semi-structured interview. Content analysis was used to analyze the results of the interviews.

The results showed that the development of central scenarios of divorce status in future generations of the Iranian family can affect the status of divorce in the future. There are also favorable socio-cultural beliefs and contexts about the importance of the family in Iranian society that can play a decisive role in planning and policy-making aimed at managing and controlling the extent and severity of family injuries and the rate of divorce (especially future generations).

Therefore, the divorce rate (formal and affective) will decrease in the future generations through correct, preventive, managed and on-time practical solutions at macro policy making level.

Introduction and The divorce has reached its critical point in Iran and many families are involved in it, so it has caused many researchers to investigate this issue. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the optimal scenario of divorce status in future generations of the Iranian family in a 20-year perspective. The research method is qualitative in screenwriting type. One of the objectives of future studies is “describing alternative futures” and screenwriting is one of its mediums. The statistical population of this study included family specialists (sociologists, family lawyers, psychologists, faculty members) in 2019. Considering the data saturation, 19 specialists were selected through purposive sampling method and were interviewed through semi-structured interview. Content analysis was used to analyze the results of the interviews. The results showed that the development of central scenarios of divorce status in future generations of the Iranian family can affect the status of divorce in the future. There are also favorable socio-cultural beliefs and contexts about the importance of the family in Iranian society that can play a decisive role in planning and policy-making aimed at managing and controlling the extent and severity of family injuries and the rate of divorce (especially future generations). Therefore, the divorce rate (formal and affective) will decrease in the future generations through correct, preventive, managed and on-time practical solutions at macro policy making level.