مریم عبدالله زاده

Prediction of water table oscillation, especially in arid and semiarid areas is essential for better planning. In this study, monthly data of water table elevation, during the period of 1380 to 1390 for Ajabshir plain with an area of 130 km2 were used by application of two methods to estimate and predict the water table elevation. The date of 1380 to 1390 were used for estimating and the water table elevations were predicted for the three years of 1391 to 1393. The first method is solving partial differential equation for consecutive time steps and the second one is time series model. The GMS software was used for numerical solution of the differential equation by finite difference method. The correlation coefficient value of 0.9 and RMSE value of 0.41 between the estimated and observed amonts of groundwater levels were obtained using this method. The best fitted model for the water table elevation data using time series was ARMA (3, 2), correlation coefficient and RMSE values of this method were 0.85 and 0.49 respectively. According to the evaluation criteria, the partial differential equation method was more accurate than the time series method.

The common methods for estimation of evapotranspiration and water requirement are generally based on the ideal and without stresses conditions. In field conditions, different stresses such as salinity, dryness, temperature, soil fertility and other field managements effect on evapotranspiration and water requirement. In this study, AquaCrop model is used for estimation of real evapotranspiration and water requirement in Moghan Plain. The results showed that the evapotranspiration and water requirement of this model is less than the Cropwat model, which is due to consideration of the region conditions such as soil moisture, salinity, fertility and other field managements by AquaCrop model. The Cropwat model only consider climate condition. According to the results obtained from the AquaCrop model, in comparison with the Cropwat model, water requirements of Wheat, Barley and Maize were reduced about 41, 69 and 790 m3/ha, respectively. Also the evapotranspiration and water requirement of the AquaCrop model were compared with NetWat. These parameters of AquaCrop are higher for wheat and maize, and for less barley data. NetWat data has a low degree of reliability, due to being old of weather data.

In this study, a wind tunnel was used to provide a spatial and temporal model of salt emission. Obtainedregression model from wind tunnel test data on the salt of Urmia Lake evaluated with the empirical Chepil equation. In this experiment, four variables were used: wind speed, distance from the salt source, duration of wind blowing and Salinity (EC), where the variation of EC is dependent on the other three variables. The values of coefficient of determination, root mean square error and relative error between the observational and computational data of regression model are 0.96, 79.12 μs/m and 0.1065 respectively. According to the evaluation criteria, it can be concluded that the accuracy of the proposed regression model is very good for evaluating the salt transfer at different times and distances and various wind speeds. The obtained salinity data from the experiment were turned to salt mass using weighing test, which is explained in the text of the paper, and were placed in the Chepil equation. The values of coefficient of determination, root mean square error and relative error between the observational and computational data are 0.70, 0.04 kg and 63.4359 respectively. According to the obtained evaluation criteria, we can use the suggested equation by experimental data, which was evaluated by Chepil equation on a larger scale by accepting some errors.

In this study, temporal and spatial model of salt transfer was investigated using a wind tunnel testing. In this model, four variables namely time, distance from the salty source, salinity and wind speed were used in which salinity was considered as a dependent variable and the others remained variables were considered as the independent variables. By use of this model, the amounts of measured and calculated EC were compared with the regression model output. The evaluation criteria used here were coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The values of these criteria were obtained as R2=0.96, RMSE= 79.14 µs/m and MAE= 46.15 µs/m. According to the mentioned criteria, it could be concluded that the precision of the proposed regression model in evaluating the salt dust transfer in different spaces and times as well as in different wind velocities was very good.

In order to better exploitation of the available water resources and to prevent water crisis increment, predicting the changes in water resources through different methods will be of great importance. In this study, monthly data of water table elevation, consumptions and precipitation during the period of 2001 to 2011 for Ajabshir plain were used to predict the water table elevation through two methods. The first method is to solve the application of partial differential equation for consecutive time steps and the second one is the proposed regression model. The finite difference method was used for the temporal solution of the differential equation which leads to gain a correlation coefficient of 0.9 and an RMSE of 0.41 between estimated and observed values of groundwater levels. To determine the time period for the effects of precipitation and consumptions on the water table elevation, the cross correlation function was used; which indicated great impact of precipitation and consumptions on water table elevation with one and two lags respectively. Finally the general relationship between these three variables with time period effects through a multivariate nonlinear regression model was obtained via a correlation coefficient of 0.93 and RMSE of 0.35. According to the evaluation criteria derived from two methods, the multivariate regression model was selected.

Prediction of groundwater table through specific models, provide a valuable information for water resources management and consumption planning. Among the different available methods, the multivariate nonlinear regression is of utmost importance for prediction of hydrological phenomena. The data bases of this research were the amounts of precipitation amounts, water table elevation and water consumptions in monthly time scale for the period of 2001- 2011. The cross correlation analysis indicated that the one lagged monthly precipitation as well as the two lagged monthly consumptions values had the highest impacts on water table elevation with the determination coefficients of 0.39 and 0.86, respectively. Then, the general relationship of these three variables obtained with 2=0.87 and root mean square error (RMSE) =0.35m through a multivariate nonlinear regression analysis. For prediction of the water table elevation in the coming years, initially, the consumptions and precipitation data extended up to 2014, using ANN and Thomas-firing methods, respectively. So, the outcome of putting them into regression equation gave the water table elevation. On the other hand, the artificial neural network was used to predict the water table elevation, for which, the resulted values of R2 and RMSE were 0.82 and 0.39m, respectively. The comparison of two methods showed that the multivariate nonlinear regression model represented more accurate results in predicting the elevation of water table, in the studied plain.

Suppose there are two groups of independent exponential random variables، where the first group has different hazard rates and the second group has common hazard rate. In this paper، the various stochastic orderings between their sample spacings have studied and introduced some necessary and sufficient conditions to equivalence of these stochastic ordering. Also، for the special case of sample size two، it is shown that the hazard rate function of the second sample spacing is Shcur-concave in the inverse vector of parameters.

Background and ObjectivesMany studies have demonstrated that polymorphisms of NQO1 including C465T and C609T are associated with increased risk of acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Our aims are to assess incidence of these polymorphisms in Tehran patients and study the influence of low activity of NQO1 in AML. Materials and MethodsIn this case-control study، we used PCR and RFLP analyses to study the prevalence of C609T NQO1in 140 patients، and C465T NQO1 in 124 patients; there was also a control group of 80 being age-sex matched. We calculated odd ratio with SPSS 16 to examine if these polymorphisms are associated with AML. ResultsNo significant association between the two common polymorphisms of NQO1 and risk of AML was observed. C609T odd ratio for TT genotype versus CC was obtained to be 0. 91 (CI 95% = 0. 51-1. 63) and for CT versus CC it was 1. 06 (CI 95% = 0. 57-1. 95). C465T odd ratio for TT genotype versus CC was calculated to be 0. 22 (CI 95% = 0. 009-5. 56) and for CT versus CC it came out to be 3. 01 (CI 95% = 0. 63-14. 32). ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the NQO1 C609T and C465T gene variants do not have a major influence on the susceptibility to adult AML.

The present paper is conducted by the aim of identifying measures of job alienation sentiment among government staffs of Garmsar County in 2009. The hypothesis's of this survey has been codified to the alienation concept in sociological and psychological literature and have started to represent the final results and its analysis after designing assessment tools implements and data gathering. The statistical society of this research included education personnel's and teachers of different educational grades in Garmsar. 101 people were randomly selected (50 personnels, 51 teachers in different levels of age and education). A questionnaire was prepared which its validity and reliability had been tested and its achieved data analysis demonstrated that, there is a positive correlation between economic income obtained as result of work and job alienation sentiment. Also a meaningful relation was observed between job promotion and the feeling of job alienation. Furthermore, this emphatic hypothesis in visionary sciences was accepted on the basis of final result, the hypothesis that the routine of daily work in offices and state centers has an effective role on job alienation. Furthermore, according the achieved results it has been showed that the daily work repeatment in governmental centers and offices has effective role on job alienation.