وحید امیدی

AbstractThe behavioral finance perspective posits that fluctuations in security prices are significantly influenced by investors' emotional responses, which can, in turn, affect stock returns. Understanding the sources of stock price changes is critical within asset pricing theory, highlighting the necessity of exploring the effects of investor sentiment on stock returns. This study aimed to investigate how investor sentiment shocks impact both normal and abnormal returns in the oil products sector of the Tehran Stock Exchange. To measure abnormal returns, we employed the six-factor model developed by Fama and French (2018). Investor sentiment was evaluated using the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the Psychological Line Index (PLI), trading volume, and the Adjusted Turnover Rate (ATR). Data were collected from 12 companies in the oil products industry over a period of 1,584 months, spanning from 2010 to 2020. The findings revealed that the influence of sentiment shocks on normal returns was more pronounced than on abnormal returns. Conversely, the impact of normal return shocks on sentiment was initially positive but became negative over time. Additionally, positive shocks to abnormal returns adversely affected investor sentiment, with the peak effect observed after five periods. This research enhances the understanding of how investor sentiment shocks influence normal and abnormal returns in the oil products sector, offering valuable insights into behavioral differences among investors.

Newly emerged events in the world of technology call on jurisconsults to make extra efforts to align them with jurisprudential institutions and dos-and-don’ts and to try to regulate them. One of these technologies is the mining of cryptocurrencies. The present study analyzes the jurisprudential nature of cryptocurrency, using the descriptive-analytical method, in order to determine the ruling on cryptocurrency mining. It is concluded that cryptocurrency mining does not align with the hire contract in terms of the manner of offer (ījāb) and the conditions of contracting parties. It is also different in subject matter from the possession of ownerless property (ḥiyāzat-i mubāḥāt). This occures optional or non-optional while cryptocurrency mining is not. In other words, it is not the case that a number of cryptocurrencies exist for a person to extract using some tools, which would be considered as mining. Rather, the person is given a certain amount of cryptocurrency in exchange for the work they have done. Cryptocurrency mining is also different from the contract of gift (Hibbah), in terms of conditions of the offeror (mujib), the acceptor (qābil), and the act of taking possession (qabż). In the end, cryptocurrency mining can be aligned with the contract of Jiʿālah ʿām. However, even in this case, considering cryptocurrency as Jiʿālah does not legitimize the act. There are several other issues such as the lack of value, the incompetent trades of mining (the state of being Safahī), etc., which may be analyzed in future research.

Given Iran's persistent chronic inflation, identifying the causes of this phenomenon is of great importance. The literature emphasizes the importance of the monetary base in understanding inflation, and it seems crucial to exa mine the correlation between the components of the monetary base on the one hand, their relationship with the monetary base on the other hand, and ultimately the connection between resources, the monetary base, and inflation. Therefore, this study investigates the dynamics of inflation resulting from the interaction between the components of the monetary base, the monetary base, and inflation in Iran from April 2004 to February 2023, using the Frequency Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) approach. The findings indicate that although inflation has a short-term impact on the monetary base, reflecting an intrinsic monetary issue, the effectiveness of the monetary base on inflation persists in the medium and long term. Furthermore, considering the net impact of the central bank's assets on commercial banks' debt to the central bank, managing the expansion of banking facilities during periods of increased government foreign income can be a significant factor in controlling inflation.

The interplay between various industrial groups plays a crucial role in determining the optimal investment portfolio for investors. Identifying which group carries or accepts risk within a specific time period and performance range allows for necessary adjustments in the investor's portfolio to achieve maximum returns. In this regard, the present study examines the impact of banking, automotive, cement, basic metals, and petroleum products groups on a symmetric, positive, and negative performance basis from January 5, 2015, to February 17, 2023. The results of the study indicate that in recent years, the overall index of these mentioned groups has shown more negative performance than positive performance. Moreover, banks and basic metals have acted as guiding and risk-transferring entities to other groups. On the other hand, the automotive and petroleum products groups have been risk-accepting, and their performance can be explained by the two groups of banks and basic metals.

Economically, the rise in this indicator leads to increased uncertainty among economic actors, resulting in reduced investment and economic growth becoming a distant possibility. Given this issue, examining the factors influencing this phenomenon will play a crucial role in its control. It should be noted that the increase in social unrest is influenced by various cultural, social, political, and economic factors. One of the reasons for the rise of this phenomenon in societies is inequality. Increasing inequality in various dimensions leads to increased tension between different segments of society on the one hand, and between the government and the people on the other. However, which type of inequality has a greater impact on social unrest is a subject that has not received much attention in studies conducted in this field. Therefore, this study investigates the impact of different types of inequality (wealth, income, and gender) on the social unrest index in selected Middle Eastern countries during the period from 1995 to 2021, using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) method. The results indicate that during the studied period, the estimated coefficients of income inequality, wealth inequality, and inflation are negative, while the estimated coefficient of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is positive. Additionally, the estimated coefficient of the women's income share variable (reduction in gender inequality) is negative.

One of the primary concerns of the Iranian National Pension Fund is managing its investment portfolio. In this respect, the present study aimed to examine the long-term investment portfolio, the largest subset of which is V-sandoq. The analysis used the R2 connectedness approach proposed by Naeem et al. (2023) over the period from September 17, 2013, to September 22, 2023. The study focused on the immediate influence and susceptibility to influence of the stocks within the National Pension Fund. The results showed that, in terms of net influence and susceptibility, the stocks of Group 1 (i.e., Kechad, Foulad, Kegol, and Sheranol) were the most influential, transferring risk to the network. Conversely, the stocks of Group 2 (i.e., Shepas, Pasa, Shekabir, and Vebshahr) were the most influenced by the network. Therefore, risk is transferred from Group 1 stocks to the network, impacting Group 2 stocks the most. In network analysis, during a bear market with a threshold of -4%, there is a high degree of connectivity among the stocks in the portfolio. This suggests that portfolio adjustments are necessary under bear market conditions. Conversely, in a bull market with a threshold of +4%, there is no connectivity between the stocks, indicating that no portfolio adjustments are needed under such conditions.

Mining cryptocurrency is a seemingly new issue that, like other newly emerging issues, should be examined in terms of its correspondence with the criteria of validity of ʻuqūd (contracts) or īqāʻāt (unilateral obligations) in order to determine the opinion of the holy sharīʻah regarding cryptocurrency mining. If some of these criteria are not observed, the exchanges will be invalidated and unreasonable. The power to submit, property, rational interest, ownership, clarity, and definiteness of the ʻiwaḍayn (two sides of the transactions) are among these criteria. In the present study, the criteria mentioned in jurisprudential books regarding the mining of cryptocurrencies were examined, and finally, it was concluded that there are no criteria for the unreasonableness exchange in the mining of cryptocurrencies, in mining cryptocurrencies, ʻiwaḍayn have financial value as an exchange that have many similarities to juʻālah, there is not even a religious obstacle to challenging their financial value, there is the power to submit them, and in terms of meeting the conditions of ownership, having a rational interest and being clear, there is no problem for them.

The Interaction of Globalization and Innovation on Poverty Abstract :Throughout human history, poverty has been considered one of the undesirable economic and social phenomena of different societies, and it is now recognized as one of the major problems of the world community, and efforts to reduce it have become one of the important goals of the countries of the world . has been Meanwhile, globalization and innovation are tools that can affect poverty and reduce it . Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to investigate the mutual effect of globalization and innovation on poverty in selected science - producing countries with per capita income above 20 thousand dollars and below 20 thousand dollars during the period of 2011 - 2019 using panel data techniques and the generalized method of moments ( GMM ) . The research results indicate a negative and significant effect of the mutual effect of globalization and innovation dimensions on poverty in both groups of selected countries during the study period . In addition, the effect of control variables of misery and inequality on poverty in both groups of selected countries is positive and significant . Keywords : Poverty , Globalization , Innovation .

The refining industry is one of the most important industries in the Tehran Stock Exchange, and it has a significant impact on the behavior of the existing shares in it due to fluctuations in global oil prices. These effects are in such a way that they also affect the relationship between each share and the others. Therefore, in order to address the impossibility of examining all the shares available in the stock market, the formation of an optimal portfolio of various industries requires the identification of leading shares in this industry. To this end, in this study, using daily data in the period from August 30, 2016, to May 21, 2023, and employing the Asymmetric TVP-VAR method, the relationship between refining industry shares in three states of positive returns, negative returns, and general returns has been examined. The results of this study indicate that there is an asymmetrical relationship between negative and positive returns, with a stronger relationship observed in positive returns. Additionally, Shabna, Shabriz in negative returns, and Shebandar in positive returns are the leading shares in the refining industry.

The introduction of new social sciences to Iran commenced prior to the Constitutional Revolution, a period known as the Persian Constitutional Revolution, offering valuable insights into the current state of these disciplines. During this era, the writings of travelogues by certain individuals sparked an interest in the Western world, leading to a subsequent effort by a group of intellectuals to transplant European concepts into Iran. Notably, Mirza Agha Khan emerged as a prominent figure in this second group of intellectuals, actively engaged in the transfer of Western ideas. Among Mirza Agha Khan's notable works, "Takvin va Tashri" stands out, particularly due to the methodology applied when addressing economic subjects. In the realm of social sciences, methodology plays a pivotal role in the exploration of the laws governing human interactions. This study focuses on Mirza Agha Khan's approach to economic relationships, revealing that his method mirrors the perspectives of economists from the 18th and 19th centuries.

 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:

This research method is rooted in the perspective of Ludwig von Mises ([1949] 1998). According to Mises, economic propositions are deduced through a process of deductive reasoning and fall into the category of a priori propositions. This concept centers on the extraction of knowledge from the actions that "we" as individuals undertake. In essence, every individual is considered an actor and, as such, can derive an a priori understanding of reality through introspection. This process is made feasible through the comprehension of what Mises termed "The axiom of action." This axiom posits that "human action is purposeful behavior." In other words, action represents the manifestation of a desire translated into practical behavior, guided by an intent or objective. Action denotes the meaningful response of an individual's "Ego" to stimuli and the environmental conditions surrounding them. It signifies a conscious adaptation to the state of the world, thereby determining the course of their life.

Adam Smith contends that the comprehension of previously unexplained phenomena can be a gratifying experience when employing certain fundamental principles. He suggests that, much like the Newtonian principles, if such principles and rules can be unearthed in the realm of human relationships, it becomes plausible to offer explanations. Mirza Agha Khan's initial statements in "Takvin va Tashri" resonate with the perspective of Adam Smith, which was a prevailing approach among economists up until the 19th century. In this context, Mirza Agha Khan's method of deciphering phenomena bears a striking resemblance to that generation of economists. This study adopts a similar method to scrutinize his viewpoints, drawing on the approach akin to that employed by Mirza Agha Khan.

In the initial sections of his work, Mirza Agha Khan engages in a discussion regarding the origins of political society. He presents a perspective that contrasts with Hobbes' view, asserting that the state of war, characterized by universal conflict, only arises after the establishment of a political society, effectively eliminating the secondary state of "fear" that results from individual dispersion. This perspective aligns closely with the ideas of John Locke, who posited that reason governs human beings from their very inception. Locke's concept of the law of nature, dictated by reason and binding all individuals equally, resonates with Mirza Agha Khan's views.As Mirza Agha Khan delves into the subject of trade following the formation of human society, he underscores its role in averting conflict. According to his perspective, the disappearance of equality among individuals within a society ushers in a state of war, as previously solitary and fearful individuals now seek to prevail over one another. Thus, trade serves as a crucial instrument in fostering peace and harmony and attracting general blessings. Mirza Agha Khan perceives trade as a significant factor in the formulation of both domestic and international laws. He emphasizes that the sustainability of trade between nations hinges on the stability of legal frameworks, both domestically and internationally. Notably, Mirza Agha Khan's analysis, in contrast to the economic thinking of the 18th and 19th centuries, shifts its focus from the individual to the collective as a whole. His perspective centers on the societal benefits of international trade, a deviation from the individualistic analysis prevalent in modern European thought, marking an important epistemological shift.

 CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS:

The Constitutional Movement in Iran marked a period during which Iranians were introduced to the concepts of the modern world. The movement prompted many individuals, both from the elite and intellectual circles, to seek knowledge about the ongoing transformations in Europe. Initially, this awareness was cultivated through travelogues, and later through the dedicated efforts of figures like Malkom Khan, Mirza Agha Khan Kermani, Mostashar al-Dowleh, and others.This research centers specifically on exploring the economic perspectives of Mirza Agha Khan Kermani. Mirza Agha Khan Kermani was chosen for this study because, among his contemporaries, he made a concerted effort to derive his economic views from fundamental principles and assumptions. This approach mirrors the thinking of European economists during the 18th and 19th centuries.A comparative analysis between his books "Takvin va Tashri" and "Sad Khutabe" reveals a noteworthy distinction in Mirza Agha Khan's standpoint. It is evident that while in the former book, the author sought to deduce conclusions from principles within the realm of social sciences, particularly economics, he adopted a different approach in the latter.This inconsistency highlights a significant aspect of Iranians' encounter with new European thought during the Constitutional era. Iranians had long been acquainted with Greek philosophy and Aristotle's ideas, upon which they had extensively reflected. One crucial aspect that seems to have been inadequately grasped during the encounter between modern Europe and Iran in this era is the transformation that occurred within modern European thought. In Mirza Agha Khan's perspective, the collective context takes precedence over the individual, aligning with Aristotle's ideas, whereas modern European thought prioritizes individualism. Consequently, the potential transition from personal interest to collective welfare, a vital aspect of Adam Smith's thinking, is absent in Mirza Agha Khan's viewpoint.

One of the signs of a healthy economy is the stability of macroeconomic components such as exchange rate, inflation, budget deficit, and foreign trade sector. In the current study, using the TVP-QVAR model, in the period of 1385:01-1397:12, with a monthly frequency, the method of transfer, receive, and also the cause of transfer of volatilities between exchange rate, inflation, budget deficit, and the current account has been investigated. The research results showed that if the growth of the variables is at low, average, and high levels, the type of communication between them will also be different. Specifically, there has been more relationship between research variables' volatilities in low and high growth rates. Also, in the case of a high growth rate, only the exchange rate volatilities cause inflation, current account deficit, and government budget deficit. On the other hand, the government budget deficit has affected the current account deficit only in the case of a low growth rate.

The efficiency and performance of the stock market in mobilization of financial resources because of the impact on the amount and quality of investment has great importance in the economy. Although competitiveness is a set of institutions, policies and factors that can create a high return on production factors, including capital by maintaining and deepening in business, industry and the country. Therefore, competitiveness is one of the determinants of the returns of stock companies and, consequently, the mobilization of financial resources in the stock market. For this purpose, the present study examines the effects of competitive components on mobilization of financial resources in members of World Federation of Exchanges with using panel data and Generalized Method of Moments(GMM) data from 2007 to 2019.The results of the research show that innovation-driven factors (INV), efficiency-driven factors (EFF) and basically-based factors (BAS) have a positive and significant effect on investment flow of the stock market financial resources. Also, liquidity of the stock market and real interest rate have a positive and significant effect on investment flow of the stock market financial resources.

The exchange rate refers to the ratio of prices in two countries and its deviation from the balanced rate causes instability in macroeconomic variables such as Import, Export, price level, and financial markets. Also, regarding the increasing pace of the global economy toward a knowledge-based economy, it seems important to study the effect of the economic complexity on other economic variables. In this study, economic complexity, which indicates the degree of diversity and ubiquity of countries' products, has been used as one of the most important components of the knowledge-based economy. it is clear that more economic complexity leads to more competitive ability in the global market and, as a consequence, will lower the exchange rate. The present study has investigated the impact of Economic Complexity on exchange rates in selected developing knowledge-based countries during 2007-2019 using GMM. The results show that Economic Complexity had a negative and significant effect on the exchange rate. In addition, other control variables like money supply had a positive effect, and trade balance and political stability had a negative impact on the exchange rate. Therefore, governments' policies should lead to more economic complexity.

Nowadays, countries should consider the expansion of the knowledge-based economy to witness endogenous and extroverted growth. So, the government and central bank’s policies should be designed to support the new factors of production, like human capital, R&D, and Innovation. To do so, this study tries to illustrate if monetary policies implemented by the central bank of I.R. Iran between 1978 and 2016 were aligned with the expansion of the innovation market, as one of the prominent factors of a knowledge-based economy.

In this study, we used a simultaneous equation system to investigate the monetary policy effect on GDP through innovation channel in the period of 1978 to 2016. The data was extracted from the central bank of I.R. Iran, and since this study tries to investigate the monetary policy effect on GDP through innovation channel, its spatial scope is national. Specifying research model To investigate the study’s hypotheses following equations were used:(1) (2) In these equation IN, L, K, , and M refer respectively to Innovation, Labor force, Physical capital stock, Physical capital Intensity, and Monetary policy index. It should be noted that since four different monetary indexes were used, four systems of the simultaneous equation were estimated too.

The results show that monetary policies with money stock as a proxy had a negative and significant effect on Innovation in Iran. However, the influence of Innovation on GDP was positive and significant. Therefore, the monetary policy harmed GDP through the Innovation channel.

By implementing a change to relative prices of production factors, it is expected to see rational producers substitute less expensive combination of factors of production. In that case, the implemented policies will determine which factors will be used more in the production process. Interestingly, in our study period, the effect of monetary policy on GDP and GDP without Oil thorough innovation was negative. Therefore, these policy recommendations can be suggested:·I.R.Iran Central bank should be careful about its policies on the innovation market and should implement policies to change the current situation. Also, Central bank’s consultants should recommend policies that aim at knowledge-based economy expansion without any political consideration.

Attracting foreign tourists could have a positive impact on the economy through the income achieved, But this requires the provision of minimums that have a determining effect on tourists’ decisions about whether choose or avoid entering a particular country. One of the most important variables influencing the decision is related to safety. The present article was to investigate the effect of institutional political risk index and its sub-indices on attracting tourists. Hence, MENA countries during the period 1995 to 2016 were selected as the test sample. To estimate the models we used FMOLS[1], and results showed that political risk as total factor has a determinant impact on attracting tourists. Also, the estimation showed the internal and external conflict sub-indices among other political risk ones have had a greater effect on attracting foreign tourists.
[1]  Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square

Innovation diffusion is one of the most significant determinants affecting competitiveness, development and economic growth. Thus, investigating factors that affect this variable is important to stimulate the development process. One of the most prominent factors which affect innovation is the government’s policies. In this article, we attempt to look into the importance of governments' demand-side policies in developing countries on innovation growth over the period 2011-2015. Therefore, monetary, fiscal, commercial and currency policy effects on innovation growth are investigated. The outcomes of the GMM model show that the increase in interest rate, government spending, and tariff rate have a positive and statistically significant effect on innovation, while the impact of the under-valued exchange rate is negative and statistically significant. Hence, demand-side policies should be coordinated with supply-side policies to boost demand for domestic innovation.

Endogenous growth theory after Romer (1990) emphasizing on innovation as the most prominent factor which affects economic growth. In this regard, Global Competitiveness Report rank countries from the most to the least developed ones based on their stage of innovation. Since factors which affect innovation can be categorized into inner and outer ones, in this study we try to measure the effect of outer ones on innovation growth. Hence, FDI and import of Intermediary and capital goods are identified as two channels which innovation’s spillover can affect innovation growth. Then, 29 members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in the period 2011-2016 have chosen to test hypotheses. Results show that, while the impact of the innovation spillover of Intermediary and capital goods on innovation growth was positive, but the innovation spillover of FDI was negative. Also, improvement in institutional quality shows improvement in the effectiveness of innovation spillover from both channels.

Increasing investment and achieving higher economic growth rates is the primary goal of the economic systems. Potentially, the natural resources, especially oil, can be very beneficial in economic development and creating resources for investment. But, on the other hand, the impact of natural resources abundance on the investment depends on the specific institutional and political characteristics of each country. Therefore, the present study addresses the interaction of the Governance Index with the abundance of natural resources on the formation of physical capital in the net fuel export countries during the period of 2002-2016 using PMG model. The results of the study show that the interaction of oil revenue with the indicators of the right to comment and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, rule of law, quality of laws and regulations and control of corruption on the formation of physical capital has a positive and significant effect in long-term and insignificant in the short-term. Also, based on the results of the long-term estimation, gross domestic product per capita (GDP) and degree of economic freedom have a positive and significant effect and the effect of real interest rates on the formation of physical capital is negative and significant. In the short-term, in one hand real interest rate found to be ineffective and on the other hand GDP and degree of economic freedom found to have a positive and significant impact on the capital formation.

Following the influential Nordhaus (1975) article, investigation of the influence of political variables on the macroeconomic ones became an interesting subject matter for economic analyses. In this regard, the impact of elections on economic variables, which in the economic literature has been interpreted as “election cycles”, is one of the most prominent political phenomena. Policymakers, aiming for being re-elected in the following election, try to behave in particular ways that are favorable to voters. The present study attempts to investigate the impact of “electoral cycles” on the inflation rate in the selected countries. In view of that, this study examines the impact of election cycle’s sub-component (election year index, government ideology, minority government, and coalition) on the inflation rate in the developed and developing countries for the period 1994- 2012. The results of the dynamic panel method estimation show that during the election year, policymakers, irrespective of the degree of development of the target countries or policymakers’ ideology, try to reduce the inflation rate.