کمیل طیبی

The mechanism of intra-industry trade defines technology transfer through sectors that produce and export products that lead to easier absorption of foreign technologies. Therefore, compared to inter-industry trade, intra-industry trade may encourage the use of environmentally friendly technology to a greater extent. The purpose of this paper has been to evaluate the effect of intra-industry trade on environmental quality for Iran and selected countries including France, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Russia, Australia, Germany, Denmark, China, Turkey, UAE and Pakistan during the period of 2001-2020. The model was estimated by the generalized least squares (GLS) method based on the panel data approach. In this respect, the variables of carbon dioxide and methane emissions, as the indicators of environmental quality were used through the development of the environmental econometric model. The empirical results showed that the intra-industry trade variable (proxied by Grobel-Lloyd index) was statistically significant at 10% significance level and had a negative sign. This means that the expansion of intra-industry trade, in which the level of competition and the quality of goods and services are improved, plays an important role in reducing environmental pollution as a result of increasing the quality of the environment in Iran and the trading partners. However, Iran's trade relations with the trading partners in the form of intra-industry trade do not include a high share, which implies the country's traditional and inter-industry trade relations with its partners. This can be caused by the production of raw materials and the export of these goods and Iran's low-ranking technology with the selected partners. Such trade relations may cause destructive effect the environment.

The role and importance of small and medium-sized enterprises is controversial not only in developing countries but also in developed countries. Internal and external surveys of small and medium-sized firms indicate that financing is one of the most important challenges. The interest rate uncertainty will also have a significant impact on the financing and investment of these companies. The interest rate uncertainty, which is considered as the cost of rent by the investor and the opportunity cost by the depositor, is one of the most important macroeconomic variables in policy making. Therefore, the present article seeks to explain, after explaining SME financing and its position in the Iranian economy, the role of the interest rate uncertainty on SME financing as a challenge. The main aspects of their development are analyzed using a regression analysis. The statistical population of the study is small and medium-sized companies whose financial data is published in the Comprehensive Database of All Listed Companies (CODAL) 70 selected SMEs during 2011-2017. Generaly, the results show a negative and significant effect of interest rate uncertainty on financing at small and medium enterprises in Iran. Based on the results of this study, it is suggested in order to improve the financing of small and medium enterprises in the country, by reducing the amplitude of fluctuations in the real interest rate, the policies based on reducing interest rate uncertainty should be adopted.

Predicting currency fluctuations and crises is an important step in the foreign exchange policy of countries. Given that the purpose of early warning systems or patterns is to anticipate crises, their use is essential to prevent economic crises, including currency crises. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to model and rank the early warning factors of currency crisis by Bayesian averaging method. For this purpose, 70 variables warning of the currency crisis during the period 1970-2018 for the most important trading partners of Iran that have experienced the currency crisis in floating and non-floating currency systems are examined. Selective warning variables include a wide range of macroeconomic variables and financial variables that reflect the state of the economy in the real, monetary, political, public, foreign, institutional, and structural sectors. The results of this study show that the designed system has a high ability to predict currency crises in the period under review and identify the most important warning factors. Overall, the results indicate that considering the currency governance system in the models of currency crisis warning, sometimes different variables are introduced as currency crisis warning; So that changes in foreign exchange market pressure, changes in real effective exchange rates, the ratio of international reserves to foreign debt, real GDP growth and the percentage of foreign direct investment to GDP in the floating exchange rate system and changes in foreign exchange market pressure, Inflation, real effective exchange rate changes, the ratio of international reserves to GDP, and the ratio of exports of goods and services to GDP in the non-floating system are important warning indicators.