مقالات رزومه دکتر محمدحسن وکیل پور

Variation in the supply and demand of agricultural products causes price changes and threatens the production of products and food security. One of the main and determining factors for ensuring food security is the proper determination of prices and their calculation based on the correct criteria and suitable for the conditions of the goods in the country and the region in question. Therefore, in agricultural planning, it is necessary to pay attention to unpredictable factors such as the price of agricultural products. The pricing policies of the government during the supply chain of agricultural products have always been one of the challenges faced by the policy makers of this sector, and one of the difficult tasks of the policy makers is to choose between the set of scenarios that are feasible in the implementation of the agricultural pricing policy, from the executive and legal point of view. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the scenarios of increased price support policy and its effects on the consumption of raw milk at the beginning of the supply chain as well as dairy products at the end of the chain in 2019.

The required data were collected through the databases of Statistical Center of Iran (SCI), Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (MAJ), Iran Dairy Industries Society (IDIS), The Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) and Road Maintenance and Transportation Organization (RMTO). Considering the continuity of different markets along the supply chain to model relationships between variables, from the partial equilibrium model as well as linear dynamic panel model, linear-logarithmic supply function and Almost Ideal Demand System (ADIS) were used to estimate the parameters in raw milk supply functions, dairy products supply functions and dairy products demand, respectively.

The study results showed that the amount of raw milk production in the previous period had a positive and significant effect on the amount of production in the current period, so that by increasing one ton of milk in the previous period, its production rate in the current period would increase by 0.31 percent; on the other hand, as a result of applying the floor price policy in different price scenarios, the supply of raw milk by raw milk producers would increase, enhancing its absorption by factories producing dairy products and as a result, the amount of production of dairy products would increase. Due to the fact that the cost of dairy products would increase for factories to buy raw milk, the supply prices of dairy products would increase as well. A proportion of the surplus production of factories would also be exported, which were reported 135,749 tons of yogurt and 97,672 tons of cheese according to the statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (MAJ) and in 2019. Also, according to the elasticities of the supply and demand functions of dairy products, the amount of additional welfare changes of raw milk producers and factories producing dairy products increases by 10 to 100 percent increase in the floor price support policy, while this would reduce the welfare surplus of the consumers of dairy products. In addition, the social welfare surplus increases following the implementation of the floor price increase policy, so that in the case of applying the floor price policy by 10 and 100 percent increase, its amount would reach 8985 and 160537 billion IRI rials, respectively.

The general conclusion of this study indicates that reforming the floor price policy above its equilibrium price in 2019 leads to an increase in the welfare of producers due to an increase in the price of raw milk and dairy products. On the other hand, it leads to a lack of support and a significant decrease in the welfare of consumers of dairy products due to the increase in the price of these products, which in the long run will lead to a decrease in the consumption of these products per capita in the society. Social welfare has also increased due to the increase in producers' welfare due to the reform of the floor price policy. Based on the importance of milk and dairy products in the basket of consumer goods of households and the fact that they are considered basic goods in the country and are relatively cheaper than protein products and are necessary for maintaining the health of people in any society and expanding its consumption culture, it is suggested that the government policies to support consumers dairy products in order to increase their welfare and also to increase the consumption of these products along with the appropriate price and maintain the quality of these products, such as the subsidy policy (which was included in the budget to a greater extent in previous years) and also apply the cheap food policy. In the long run, this can lead to an increase in production by considering the additional increase in the welfare of producers through the application of the floor price policy and benefit both producers and consumers.

The village, as the basis of the system and due to its position at different levels of the development process, plays an important role in the life and prosperity of any society. Agriculture as the dominant activity in the village has a decisive role in providing independence and food security.  Agriculture has many capacities, and it is very important to use these capacities in order to provide a sustainable livelihood and maintain the population of the villagers. One of these capacities is benefiting from rural tourism. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to analyze the gap between the current and expected situation of the impact of rural tourism on sustainable livelihoods of rural households.

The present research is applied of view point of its purpose and is a descriptive-survey in terms of its method. The statistical population of the study included 224 households in Kalvan village. Using Krejcie and Morgan table, 135 households were identified as the sample participated in this study. In order to achieve the purpose of the research, a questionnaire was used to collect data. The reliability of the research tool was confirmed by using Cronbach's alpha coefficient. In order to analyze the data, SPSS software was used.

Examining the gap between the current and the expected situation, the results indicate that the expected situation score is significantly higher than the current situation score of the impact of tourism in each of the dimensions of sustainable rural livelihood. The results showed that there is the largest gap between the expected and current status of dimensions of institutional-structural, economic-financial and natural-environmental resources, respectively. Therefore, paying attention to these dimensions, including the introduction of Kalvan village as a tourist destination through mass media, as well as providing the necessary conditions to stabilize the livelihood of Kalvan village households and their permanence in the village will be of great help.

The key message of this study was based on the principle that the expectations of people living in Kelvan village on the sustainability of livelihood assets due to tourism have not been met to a large extent. The need to address the expectations of the target community (tourist areas) is related to the coordination among different organizations, including the tourism organization, the environmental organization, and the agricultural jahad organization of the province, as well as other related institutions. On the other hand, culturalization of the proper use of natural resources by tourists should be paid attention to by those in charge.

Due to the growing trend of public concerns related to the increase in environmental instability of agricultural development plans in different rural areas, the evaluation of ecological security and ecosystem services is currently a major issue in the field of natural resources and environment. Dasht-e-Abbas plain of Iran is one of the areas suffered from environmental problems such as soil salinity and increase in the level of reeds due to the entry of transfer water. This study mainly aimed at determining the economic value of water through the production function and choice experiment. The required information was obtained through a questionnaire and face-to-face interviews with 108 farmers separately from both swampy and normal parts of Dasht-e-Abbas plain aquifer in 2021. The market results of swampy part showed that the final production value of water input for wheat crop was -964 IRI rials, indicating that the lost economic value of water input in this part would be about 200 billion IRI rials; in addition, in the normal part of the aquifer, the final production value of the water input for this product was 8584 IRI rials. In this way, the market value of water in the normal part of the aquifer was about 370 billion IRI rials. Then, the models of "mixed logit" and "mixed logit with interaction effects" were used to calculate the non-market value of water. The results showed that the farmers were willing to pay 7.5 million IRI rials per hectare annually to improve the environment. Therefore, the farmers of the swampy part would be willing to pay about 42 billion IRI rials, which is 25 percent of the lost income for the indirect use value and non-use value of water. This amount of payment can be used as a joint financing in connection with the improvement of irrigation, drainage with the participation of the government and the enhancement of training on the sustainable use of agricultural land and ways to prevent soil salinization based on problems related to irrigation by the farmers according to their needs.

The growing population and rising incomes have increased the water demand for agricultural, industrial and urban use.  On the other hand, water supply has shifted from surface sources to groundwater sources. This has significantly reduced the storage of groundwater resources. The growth of urbanization and the existence of two cities of Tehran and Karaj in the Tehran-Karaj plain has increased the demand for water in the domestic sector and as a result has reduced the share of water consumption in the agricultural sector. For optimal water management with considering the water demand in different economic sectors, in this study, the effects of changes in water demand in the domestic sector on agricultural activities, its economic value have been estimated.  The Stone-Geary Utility method was used to estimate urban water demand and the positive mathematical programming approach was used to estimate the economic value and effects of urban water demand on the agricultural sector. The results showed that the water economic value in the agricultural sector is equal to 550 Toman per cubic meter. Now, if the share of the agricultural sector in groundwater decreases by 1, 5, 10 and 20%, the economic value of water in the agricultural sector will increase to 600, 703, 761 and 976 Toman per cubic meter. Due to the constraints created by water demand in the domestic sector and the reduction of water availability, in addition to pricing based on the economic value of water in the agricultural sector, policymakers are proposing incentive policies to invest in modern irrigation systems in order to increase more water productivity

The expansion of urbanization has created a variety of needs, the most important of which is the supply of drinking water. Therefore, it is important to know the amount of water demand and the factors affecting it. Meanwhile, the impact of reduced subsidies on drinking water is very sensitive. Because, increasing its price, will lead to changes the welfare of urban consumers. Rey city is one of the cities of Tehran province that the urban population in this city has increased significantly in recent years, and on the other hand, the only source of drinking water is groundwater in this city and since the level of groundwater aquifer in the Rey plain has decreased significantly, so it is important to study the function of water demand in this area and the factors affecting it. Due to the necessity of research, this paper estimates the water demand function of Rey city using the time series data of 2002-2019 and the Stone-Geary utility function. The amount of income that must be paid to the households of Rey city in order to stay at the initial welfare level is obtained with using the compensated variation index and the price elasticity of demand and the elasticity of income. The results show that water in the study area was a low elasticity and essential commodity and the amount of compensatory payment in the year of the implementation of the targeted subsidies law is equal to 179225/73 Rials and in 2019 is equal to 1541430/02 Rials. As a result, the increase in water prices has significantly reduced the welfare of urban consumers, and compensation for this purpose should be on the agenda.

The location of Tehran as the largest consumer of urban water in the country and also the different uses of water in this city, has led to the flow a significant volume of surface water resources in streams and canals in the southern regions of Tehran. These polluted surface runoffs are currently used in combination with underground water sources in agriculture in south of Tehran, which has adverse environmental consequences. The Surface water organization project in the south of Tehran in the Regional Water Company of Tehran has been explored to tackle the problem. Hence in this study, the economic and environmental effects of treated wastewater use in agriculture in the South of Tehran have been surveied in terms of project implementation and comparing the results with existing conditions in the region that uses polluted water for agricultural lands irrigation. According to the results, if the plan is implemented, the average amount of runoff has decreased from 201 to 84 cubic meters per hectare, and the amount of nitrates in the runoff has decreased from 14 to 0.1 kg per hectare. Also, by entering the wastewater into the plan area and using the fertilizer potential of the wastewater, the amount of nitrogen fertilizer consumption can be reduced by 5039 tons, which will reduce the costs of the farmers in the area by 55431 million Rials. As a result, the implementing the Surface water organization project in the south of Tehran will bring positive environmental effects.

In recent years, the ever-increasing price of food has caused serious concern in terms of providing food expenses and maintaining the governorate's level of food security. Therefore, this study examines the effects of the increase in the price of food products on the cost of living index of urban and rural deciles. In order to achieve the objectives of the study, the supply and use tables of 2016 were used in the form of extended Input-output based on the integrated supply and use tables. 24 items including protein products, vitamins, carbohydrates, caffeine and tobacco products were studied. The results of this study showed that the largest share of the living expenses of urban and rural households is associated with bread. The lowest expenses are related to different types of drinks. Except for all types of red and white meat, packaged fruits and vegetables, and dairy products, the cost of living of rural households increases more than urban households due to the increase in the prices of other food products. Among the income deciles, mostly the first to fourth deciles experience the highest cost of living due to the increase in the price of food products. Therefore, since rural households bear the cost of providing food more than urban households, and income deciles are affected unequally. Also, the price increase of different products (24 items) will have different effects on households. Therefore, it is suggested to control the increase in the price of the most effective products in different ways and if the support policy is considered by the policy makers, it should be adopted and applied according to the different urban and rural deciles and according to the results obtained.

Dasht-e Abbas plain is one of the most important agricultural areas of Ilam province of Iran, which has suffered environmental problems in recent years. If the new water resource management policy causes an increase in the pollution of underground water resources or in general, damage to the environment, there is no price for this damage in the market. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the non-market value of water entering from the Karkheh dam to the Dasht-e Abbas plain aquifer using the Choice Experiment (CE) method; Also, by presenting environmental and socio-economic characteristics in a questionnaire and data collected from 108 operators, the value of non-use and indirect use of water transfer to this aquifer was estimated. The study results showed that in this aquifer, the highest amount paid was related to soil salinity and desertification with the amount of about 258 thousand IRI rials per hectare per month and the reduction of the reed area with the amount of 176 thousand IRI rials placed in the second rank; and the amount of employment with the lowest amount of willingness to pay was about 69 thousand IRI rials per hectare per month and the total willingness to pay of each reservoir operating household was about 630 thousand IRI rials per hectare per month. According to the study results, estimating the preferences expressed by farmers regarding the extracted characteristics can help planners in managing aquifers before applying any policy or program. Therefore, it is suggested that the authorities and planners of the agricultural sector pave the ground for participation of less experienced farmers in such projects by making them aware of the importance of the environment and its close relationship with their product yields,.

One of the most important challenges facing watershed management is the conflict between economic benefit of stakeholders and environmental protection in watersheds that in turn causes many problems such as land use change by stakeholders to increase profit, regardless of watersheds health problems. In this study, a multi-objective game theory (MOGT) model was developed as an alternative tool for resolving strategic conflicts, namely economic development (development and land use) and environmental protection (water quality preservation and reduction of pollutants) that was developed to decision making and balance the economic-environmental challenges of the Marivan Zrebar Lake watershed in Kurdistan province. Geographic information system (GIS) has been used to calculate and display different types of land uses. In this study, the environmentalists (player 1) and Zrebar basin users (player 2) were selected as environmental and economical players, respectively. The results of multi-objective game-theory model indicated that Nash equilibrium was established after seven rounds of bargaining and moderating the objectives between players and the balance between environmental and economic concerns in watershed management was established. Nash equilibrium varies for environmental actor ranges from 25365 to 25366 kg/ha and income for economic actor from 420 to 421 million Rials per year. The results also indicated that solving the multi-objective decision making model for the lake watershed does not result in a Pareto optimal, but rather a range of solutions. By comparing the results of the classical multi-objective planning model and the game theory based on rounds of bargaining, the MOGT model is superior to the clasical multi-objective model and can provide more satisfactory solutions based on decision makers' preferences. Findings of this research can be useful for land use change management in the watershed where there is conflict between economic and environmental concerns.     Extended Abstract

       Decision makers often have difficulty adopting the appropriate choice from among sundry uses of a watershed (Madani, 2010). Decision making is highly controversial due to conflicting criteria (Lee & Chang, 2005); in view of the fact that each user's behavior with different views, values, and interests also affects the choice and interests of others (Shields et al, 1999). Of discussions related to watershed management, there has been dispute concerning economic revenues from land development (deforestation, agriculture and recreational activities), environmental objectives (pollution reduction) and socio-economic plans (soil and water conservation) (Lund & Palmer, 1997). Looking at it from a scientific point of view, most of this controversy has focused on finding the pareto optimal solution (Madani, 2010). In other words, there must be a balance between increasing economic profits and reducing negative environmental impacts. In situations where objectives contradict each other, improvement regarding one goal is achieved at the cost of overlooking another goal or reducing the likelihood of achieving it (Raquel et al, 2007). Among methods aim at tackling such issues in conflict situations is the multi-objective model of game theory.

   In this study, as the first step, a linear optimization model with two economic and environmental objectives was developed to maximize the profit of the users living next to the Zrebar Lake basin and to minimize the environmental pollution of the lands around (conventional model). The optimal solution of the pareto is obtained via employing this model. From an economic point of view, in order for the lands in a watershed to generate maximum income, they must be allocated to different uses. On the other hand, from an environmental point of view, watershed lands should not be exploited more than their respective capacity range. At this stage, the contradiction between economic and environmental objectives is clearly visible; because the nature of Pareto's optimal solution is such that any improvement with respect to one objective is achieved simply by degrading one other objective. As the second step, in order to resolve the conflict between economic and environmental objectives, they confront one another, and Nash equilibrium will be established through the bargaining process (game model). The Nash equilibrium feature attained from the algorithmic bargaining process ensures that each player has made the best decision against the constraints imposed by the second player. The essential data were collected by segregation of the region based on different uses of the land of the watershed, using the Geographic Information System (GIS), and the plans made in the Zrebar watershed during 2015-2016. In order to solve the multi-objective decision problem, the ArcGis Desktop 9.0 software package was used to extract accurate data.

        In the present study, for the economic player, the goal was to maximize income, which includes agricultural, horticultural, tourism-recreational, industrial and animal husbandry activities. For the second player, the minimum concentration of phosphorus and nitrogen was considered as the environmental objective. First, each player identifies the maximum and minimum values by analyzing the single-objective function. The primary objective for the first player (environmental player) equals the lowest possible pollution level of EnvPmin = 19840 kg per hectare per year, while the primary objective for the second player (economic player) is to earn the highest possible income, ie EcoDmax =56500000  Rials per hectare per year. Since the initial results of the simulation of the multi-objective model are not satisfactory with respect to each player, both entered the first round of negotiations. During the bargaining process, players moderate their objectives. The strategy of the first player was set to increase from 20,000 to 25,365 kilograms per hectare, and the strategy of the second player was set to decrease from 54 to 42.1 million rials per hectare. The greater the difference between the values shown and the values obtained from the optimization process, the closer to the real equilibrium point. After the seventh round of bargaining, the value of EnvP = 25365 obtained by solving the mathematical programming model is approximately equal to the value determined by the environmental player, and the EcoD value is approximately equal to the value determined by the economic player. The results at this stage are satisfactory for both players and therefore they reached the Nash equilibrium point.

          The current study aimed at evaluating the feasibility of using the multi-objective Game Theory (MOGM) model to fashion a balance between economic and environmental challenges in optimizing land use in the watershed of Zrebar Lake in Marivan and to help ease the decision-making process. Supporters and advocates for environment and forests protection were selected as the first player (environmental player) and users of the Zrebar Lake watershed as the second player (economic player). The results indicated that:Using the multi-objective decision-making model for the lake's watershed has not led to an optimal solution of the Pareto, but to a range of solutions.In the game model, each player takes actions for his personal interests, but in the conventional multi-objective model, players take initiative to improve the interests of the whole system. What is more likely to happen in the real world is that people prefer personal interests to collective ones. Overfishing, poaching, excessive water pumping, illegal well drilling, etc. are all considered reasons for the benefit of individualism in the real world. Nash equilibrium will scientifically describe such behavior.In balance mode, the level of cultivation of crops like wheat and barley was constant, but garden products, summer crops, vegetables and straw-covered fields have been removed from the model. This indicates that these kinds of activity have not been compatible with environmental objectives.By comparing the results of the conventional multi-objective programming model and the game model based on bargaining rounds, the superiority of the MOGT model was confirmed over the conventional multi-objective programming model. Therefore, it is recommended to consider the best measures affecting water quality and increasing income, such as replacing the new source of livelihood, reducing the use of fertilizers, replacing vegetable and fruit cultivation instead of wheat.

In many plains of Hamedan province, free distribution and low water subsidies paid by farmers have led to its overexploitation at the fields, which can threat the existing water resources and agricultural sustainable development in the region. Undoubtedly, one of the most important tools for optimal allocation of water resources is economic valuation, which emphasizes the long-term development strategy of the country. In this regard, the purpose of this study was to determine the economic value of agricultural water in potato fields in Razan-Ghahavand plain of Hamedan province using two approaches; production function and willingness to pay farmers using conditional valuation method (CVM). The required information was collected by completing a questionnaire from 150 potato farmers using a two-stage cluster sampling method in 2015-2016. In order to achieve the research objectives, the estimation of various forms of production functions was used, and the best form of the function was determined according to the results obtained by the transcendental production function. The results of the production function method showed that the average economic value of water producing potato crops was 2461 Rials per cubic meter. Also, the average willingness to pay farmers of this product after estimating the Logit model was 3452 Rials per cubic meter. Regarding the reported results, better achievements can be derived, if the water pricing policy is depended on effective factors, including the willingness to pay farmers, as well as the farmers' participation in decision-making.

Given the importance of productive resources in cultivation of agricultural products, planning and management for optimum resource utilization is of great improtance and in this regard appropriate policies are required. One of the policies that have been proposed in recent years in the field is targeted subsidies policy.Initiate limited resources in agriculture and the need to increase agricultural production in response to high consumer demand cause to strain on the environment and harming it. Critical limit this pressure is
mainly for the widespread use of chemical inputs, accordingly most important aspect of environmental disturbing agricultural practices is usage of agricultural inputs especially chemical inputs. The study is a reviewing method through the existing data on reputable sources related to agriculture, such as books, magazines and other scientific research published and Internet was used. So examines the importance of implement productive
resources, especially chemical resources in agricultural products, the concept of subsidy inputs is also examined. Finally for getting better results, it was recommended to establish free extension- education Methods for farmers in the previous context.