abdollah faraji

Among the cyclones that affect the sometimes-widespread rainfall in Iran are the merging systems of the Mediterranean and Red Seas. Therefore, it is very important to obtain the changes in the intensity of the geopotential height and the geopotential height shift of the Mediterranean-Red Sea convection patterns as one of the factors of the manifestations of these gyres, as well as the precipitation in some areas of Iran. To carry out this research, the data of geopotential height level of 1000 hectopascals related to the European Center for Medium-term Atmospheric Forecasting and ERA-Entrim version were used as a six-hour observation during the period of 1979-2018. To investigate the presence of jumps and fluctuations in the intensity of the Mediterranean-Red Sea cyclone centers during the statistical period, the Alexanderson index, known as the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) index, was used. A non-parametric chi-square statistic was exerted to verify and investigate the significance of the trend between geopotential height data and geopotential height tilt data. The parametric linear regression method was used to analyze and model the long-term trend. The findings of the present research indicate the increase of geopotential height in the place of the formation of the circulation centers of the Mediterranean Sea, as well as the decrease of the pressure gradient in the average annual values, which will probably lead to a decrease in instability and precipitation in the affected areas. The geopotential height shift data of the Mediterranean Sea had a significant jump in 1996, which divided the time series into two periods before and after the jump. The results indicate an upward trend in these two time periods, but the second period, with a gentler slope, has increased compared to the previous period

Different pressure centers and synoptic systems affect Iran's climate, and their changes can have significant climatic consequences. In this research, the trend of long-term changes in the number of coupled low-pressure of Mediterranean -Red Sea, as coupled low-pressure centers effective on Iran's rainy climate, was investigated. For this purpose, the geopotential height data of 1000 hp for the 40-year statistical period from 1987 to 2018 was extracted from the European Medium-Term Weather Forecast Center (ECMWF). In total, during this period, 97 low-pressure centers of the Mediterranean-Red Sea circulation were formed over the region. Based on the non-parametric method of chi-square test (chi-score), the trend of cyclone frequency changes was investigated. The results showed that during the investigated period, the number of coupled low-pressure of Mediterranean -Red Sea did not experience statistically significant changes in terms of decades and two semi-statistics. In examining changes on a smaller scale, cross-sectional changes were observed in four-year and two-year periods.

In the present study, the data of the ECMWF for a period of 1979 to 2018 was adopted to analyze the long term changes (trends) of the number of cyclones centers of the Mediterranean Sea.There are many methods (e.g. parametric and non- parametric)  for examining changes and trends in a given dataset. The linear regression method is of parametric category and the most common nonparametric method is Mann-Kendall test. By fitting the Mann-kendall model and the linear regression model, the frequency of the cyclone centers of the Mediterranean basin was evaluated in seasonal and annual time scales. Analyzing the trend of changes of the number of cyclone centers on a seasonal scale showed that the five-day duration have had a significant trend in spring, autumn and summer. Whilest on an annual scale, there was no significant trend in any of the duration. By fitting the regression model on seasonal and annual scale, one- and two-day duration have a positive regression line slop.

The main purpose of this research was to model the temperature data of Tabriz synoptic station with the help of an integrated auto-correlated moving statistical model in time coverage of 1951-2020.

First, pre-processing was done on the studied data; in the next step, in order to analyze a time series and build a suitable model were exerted three Box-Cox methods, the first-order difference method and the least square method for stationery to decide on the best model based on the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation diagrams, the minimum Akaic information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Next, in order to ensure the appropriateness of the best-selected model were also applied  normal probability diagrams, residuZ2`2als against time, autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and evaluation criteria (MAE), (MSE), (RMSE) and (NRMSE).

While time series models are a suitable method for modeling climatic parameters, by examining the efficiency of the Box-Cox, first-order differential, and least squares stationery methods for the temperature data of Tabriz, it was determined that the first-order differential method is the best stationery method for the annual temperature data of Tabriz synoptic station due to having the lowest slope of the fitting line and the complete elimination of autocorrelation between temperature values. 

The results of this research showed that the ARIMA (0, 1, 1) Con model is the most suitable model for temperature forecasting of the coming years. Therefore, the average annual temperature of Tabriz synoptic station will increase in the next 18 years.

Innovation: 

In this research, the effectiveness of different stabilization methods was simultaneously evaluated for Tabriz Synoptic station in order to remove the trend, so that by evaluating the performance of different data stabilization methods and different models of the ARIMA family, the appropriate model for temperature forecasting can be determined and a clearer picture of the temperature conditions in the future can be obtained and its results can be exrted in related planning.

Climatic conditions have a significant impact on human living conditions and comfort. From the earliest times, humans have reacted to fluctuations in weather conditions  Therefore, it has designed its living environment in accordance with the climatic conditions. One of the most important measures in identifying a comfortable climate is to assess the conditions of the human living environment. Which determines the level of human comfort in the environment.  Meteorological variables and bioclimatic indicators are needed to assess the conditions of human comfort in the environment.. Therefore, urban planners and regional planners need useful and at the same time practical indicators in order to optimize the environment and determine the best time for human comfort. Human comfort conditions provide very good information for planners by evaluating bioclimatic indicators. The information obtained from this research provides appropriate suggestions and strategies for improving the situation in each region. To know the range of comfort climate (optimal and optimal climate) can not be enough to describe the climatic elements of the region, including temperature, humidity, wind and radiation. Rather, the type of climate in terms of comfort or lack of thermal and climatic comfort should be determined quantitatively in the form of a general indicator and a combination of all these climatic elements. Many factors affect the tourism industry, one of the most important of which is the climate. Climate plays a role as one of the most important local resources in the tourism industry. Awareness of climatic comfort plays an important role in human life and activities, and physiological comfort is closely related to climatic factors. Therefore, the study of climatic parameters affecting the climatic comfort of work seems necessary.Gilan province is one of the most populous regions of the country and ranks first in the country in terms of population density. In addition to various economic activities, this province hosts millions of people from all over the country every year due to the existence of various attractions (especially the Caspian Sea). And it is one of the touristic provinces of the country And studying the climate comfort of this province can be an important step in planning for tourist reception and its requirements. In this study, the climatic comfort of Gilan province has been studied.

For this purpose, climatic data from 11 synoptic stations (Rasht, Astara, Anzali, Deilman, Kiashahr, Lahijan, Manjil, Masouleh, Jirandeh, Talesh and Rudsar) including monthly average temperature, average maximum and minimum temperature in degrees Celsius, The monthly average of relative humidity as a percentage, the average of sunny hours and the number of rainy days during the statistical period of 1995 to 2020 have been received from the Meteorological Organization of the country. Then in SPSS software, Excel database was created  And processed the data and calculated the average of all the mentioned parameters on a monthly basis And deficiencies were corrected And through the Tourism Climate Comfort Index (TCCI), the calculations are performed And after sorting and analyzing the climatic conditions, the study area has been studied Thus, based on the Tourism Climate Comfort Index (TCCI), zoning maps of the province were drawn in GIS software . Finally, the results are analyzed and interpreted as maps.

April, south of the province (Manjil), May, center, Caspian Sea coast, part of the northeast and south of the province (Rasht, Anzali, Lahijan, Deilman, Jirandeh), August, east of the province (Rudsar), September, center , East and part of the south of the province (Rasht, Rudsar, Deilman) and October, south of the province (Jirandeh) has pleasant and favorable conditions. All tourism activities are recommended to tourists.

The results of the conducted investigations show the existence of various types of comfortable weather conditions for tourism in Gilan province. The months of May and June in most parts of the province have very favorable and pleasant conditions and the climatic conditions are suitable for all kinds of tourism activities. In the cold season of the year (January, February and December) in all parts of the province (especially the high areas such as Dilman and Masuleh, etc.), very unfavorable (cold) conditions prevail, and in the hot season of the year (July and August) the conditions are It is very unfavorable (heat) in most of the studied areas (especially coastal areas due to high humidity). All in all, in this research, all kinds of tourism activities have been targeted according to each season and each region

The interactions of circulation patterns are the interference or synergies of different circulation patterns from different latitudes and at different atmospheric levels. When interacting with circulation patterns, they will have different effects on the environmental phenomena of the Earth's surface than when acting individually. The mechanics of moving the telescopic link between the tropical zone and the subtropics is a major issue in geographical research. Considerable evidence suggests a dynamic relationship between tropical regions and mid latitudes. Tropical-extratropical interactions occur in a wide range of processes and at different scales.Tropical cloud plumes, reflects tropical- extratropical interaction in relation to the transfer of moisture from tropical to extratropical. TP was first defined by McGregor et al. (1984); a continuous strip of upper and middle clouds that are at least 2000 km long . clouds with minimum latitude of 20 degrees and maximum longitude of 5 degrees are in the tropical region. considers tropical cyclones as long bands of mid- and upper-level clouds moving from the tropical region to the polar-eastern direction to the subtropical region, especially continued by a tropical jet and a trough in its eastern part. TPs are relatively narrow at low latitudes (20–15 degrees) and widen at about 30 degrees north latitude. Studies of TP have expanded since the advent of satellite imagery in the 1960s. Prior to satellite imagery, McGurick et al. Described the development of TP in adaptation to a deep trough in subtropical jets and the turbulence of tropical winds, which ceases whenever this alignment is lost. The location and time of occurrence of plum clouds have been reported differently in different studies. In this study, we seek to investigate the Plum tropical clouds and the dynamic climbing factors that lead to their transfer to the midlatitude as a source of tropical moisture that leads to rainfall in Iran.

In order to investigate the role of TP event as an important factor in tropical-extraterrestrial interactions and as a source of moisture in the days with inclement rainfall, the 25th, 26th days of 2019 that Iran has experienced extreme precipitation were selected. The data used in this study are satellite imagery and atmospheric data. Since TPs are clouds that can only be seen in satellite imagery, IR Meteosat satellite imagery was used. Required daily atmospheric data, geopotential height (in meters), wind speed (in meters per second) and wind direction were used on an hourly time scale. The origin, path and direction of the clouds were identified using satellite images. In order to identify synoptic patterns at the time of TP occurrence, synoptic maps of geopotential height and jet stream for atmospheric indices (200 and 300 hPa) were drawn in GRADS environment using ERA5 data. Also, combined images of clouds with geopotential height and tornadoes were used for better investigation.

On March 25, at 0:00 a.m., the TP oceanic strip reaches 17 degrees along the North Atlantic cut-off low divergence zone, and along the orbital currents of westerly winds entering the tropics below the equatorial equator the subtropical jet stream is flowing. The bifurcation of TP corresponds to the bifurcation of polar front and subtropical jet streams. TPs correspond exactly to the kernels of jet stream. Jet stream core has not reached the east, southeast and parts of the northwest, so TP is not observed in these areas. The widening of the clouds occurred in the divergence zone of western trough over Iran and in the cut-off divergence zone of the Atlantic Ocean over western North Africa. At 06.00, with most of the jet stream core entering the northeastern and northern regions of Iran, TP has entered these areas. At 0:12, the wind speed of the core of jet stream has several degrees of southward displacement, which has led to the entry of TP into the southern and southwestern regions of Iran. At 0:18 East and TP continents originate from the Central African equator and enter Iran in the direction of the divergence zone of west trough and jet stream. Jet stream entered Iran in a more southerly direction, which prevented TP from entering northwestern Iran. On March 26, the subtropical jet stream is not orbital, unlike the day before. This factor can prevent the transmission of the TP orbit of the oceanic band to the east. The TP oceanic band reaches the Mediterranean with a south-north direction in the direction of the cut-off divergence of the Atlantic Ocean. Due to the location of jet stream core on the southwest-northeast diameter of Iran, the highest volume and extent of TP is observed in these areas of Iran. The entry point of TP corresponds to the entry point of jet stream core. At 18:00, the presence of the highest TP on the northeast of Iran indicates the presence of a speed core on these areas. On March 26, we see the southern transfer of TP in the direction of southwest-northeast diameter, which is in line with the southward displacement of the jet stream core to more southern widths.

On March 25 and 26 ,2019 The tropical intrusion of the extratropical dynamic factors has occurred. These factors are the deep extratropical western troughs and polar front jet streams. Their tropical intrusion has led to the transfer of tropical moisture to the extratropical region. The place of penetration of the western troughs into the tropics has determined the origin of the formation of clouds in the tropics. Also, the path and direction of the clouds from the tropics to the subtropics have been determined by the western trough divergence zone and the polar front jet stream at the level of 300 hPa and the subtropical jet stream at the level of 200 hPa. TP has entered Iran with both oceanic and continental origins and through the Red Sea and the Arabian Peninsula along the western trough divergence zone and speed core of the subtropical jet stream and polar fronts in a southwest-northeast direction. Two cloud bands merge on the Red Sea, Which lead to an increase in the Cloud moisture capacity on Saudi Arabia and Iran. With Transfers of clouds over Iran due to insufficient instability, clouds have led to precipitation. Tropical Plume clouds can be a source of moisture for offshore precipitation Tropical plume clouds can be a source of moisture for precipitation in extratropical. The presence of such a moisture source along with lower level moisture sources can increase the capacity of moisture, which in the presence of instability and lifting factors, cause more precipitation.

Cities are just as vulnerable to natural phenomena as they are the most influential human population centres on the natural environment. One of the important components of a sustainable city is its resilience to climate change and environmental hazards. This research aims to analyse the resilience of Varamin city by the Analytic Network Process (ANP) method and determine the effective indicators in its climate resilience. Varamin, a satellite city of Tehran in the southern plain of Tehran and adjacent to the desert plain with a hot and dry climate, is one of the major food suppliers of the capital. In this study, firstly, the key components and indicators related to climate resilience in Varamin were extracted using documentary and library research, field surveys and interviews with 44 experts and specialists in the field of urban planning, environmental planning and urban climate using the Delphi method and through a questionnaire. Afterwards, according to the stages of the Analytic Network Process method and the characteristics of Varamin city, the data and basic information were classified and consequently, the ANP conceptual model was developed. With four components and 33 indicators, the ANP model based on climatic resilience of Varamin city was generated using Super Decisions software and the results were then analysed. The outcomes obtained from ANP show that the highest priority in climatic resilience of Varamin city is related to the population living in informal settlements (including Omrabad, Lorabad, Goltapeh, Sakineh-banoo and Deh-Sharifa) with 0.22 normalized weight and 0.213 migration rate from the socio-economic component. Since the city of Varamin has a large share of the marginalized population and the attracted migrants are not able to provide housing in the formal markets, it is very important to increase the empowerment and improve the resilience of these settlements to climate change. Moreover, from the environmental point of view, the city of Varamin is threatened by climate change conditions due to the decrease of groundwater level and salinization of plain water resources. In addition, land subsidence is one of the major threats to the Varamin plain, as a result of vast agricultural lands, uncontrolled harvesting and abundant drainage of groundwater aquifers. Finally, considering the immigration, the physical growth of Varamin and the extensive change and conversion of land cover/land use balance changes the surface energy and water cycle of the region.

Infrastructure is one of the basic requirements for the development and development of tourism activities in different locations. The aim of the present study was to recognize the spatial distribution and ranking of the relative efficiency of tourism infrastructure in Zanjan province.From among the provincial cities, none of the cities has a favorable situation. The cities of Zanjan, Abhar andو Khoram Darreh are moderate, and the za komekKhodabandeh, Tarom and Soltanieh at low levels and in the moon kk and Eidrud are lacking in efficiency. At the level of the studied indices, the highest level of efficiency in the transport, efficiency in the transport, accommodation, cultural, religious, health and nutrition indexes related to Zanjan city, is in the recreational index of Khoramdereh city and in the index of nutrition related to Tarom city.The cities of Zanjan, Abhar and Khoram Darreh are moderate, Khodabandeh, Tarom and Soltanieh at low levels and in the moon and Eidrud are lacking in efficiency. At the level of the studied indices, the highest level of efficiency in the transport, accommodation, cultural, religious, health and nutrition indexes related to Zanjan city, is in the recreational index of Khoramdereh city and in the index of nutrition related to Tarom city.Infrastructurestudy was to recognize the spatial distribution and ranking of the relative efficiency of tourism infrastructure in Zanjan province.From among the provincial cities, none of the cities has a favorable situation.

Introduction Climate change is one of the most important phenomena of the present century, which has created many problems and challenges both globally and regionally and nationally. In the second half of the twentieth century, global warming relative to The first half of this century has increased and it is predicted that this increase in temperature will continue in future periods, resulting in changes in the level of climatic conditions in different parts of the world. Due to the lack of atmospheric precipitation, due to the increase in temperature, the rate of evaporation has increased significantly and can greatly affect the aggravation of water shortage conditions in surface currents, especially evaporation from the surface of lakes behind dams. Percentage by evaporation leads the country to higher values ​​(Farajzadeh and Ghasemifar, 1398). Regarding the changes in Iran's water resources in the horizon of 2100, few studies have been done and most have been case studies (Fahmi, 1393). Although the results of these studies, based on the climatic models and different scenarios used, sometimes show contradictions, so it is necessary to do more studies in this field. 
  Methodology The present research has been done in three specific sections and the output of each section has been used as the input of the next section. In the first part, climate change in the form of precipitation variables in the study area is detected and subsequently, rainwater runoff in the Daryan catchment is simulated. Then, while identifying the characteristics of hydrological drought periods in the basin, the probability of occurrence, intensity and duration of hydrological drought periods are calculated based on the fit of different statistical distributions for different return periods in the third section. 
 
Climate change is one of the most important environmental problems of this century. Thus, evaluating the phenomenon of climate change and reducing its effects on both global and regional scales has attracted the attention of many researchers, planners and legislators (Yohe et al., 2007). Proper assessment of these effects requires the existence of climatic information with appropriate spatial distribution and long-term time series, as well as a thorough understanding of its future trends at the regional and local scale. Despite the fact that today the output of public circulation models (GCM) are the main sources of future climate data production. One of the most important consequences of climate change includes changes in the hydrological cycle and river flow regime of watersheds. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate the possible effects of climate change on rainfall and runoff in the Daryan catchment area north of Lake Urmia. In this study, statistical method (SDSM) and data of CanESM2 Canadian climate model in the form of three scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in order to micro-scale the precipitation data of five synoptic stations adjacent to the sea basin and changes Its future is used. Here, the basic period (1961-2005) and future periods (2049-2020), (2079-2050) and (2080-2100) were selected. In this research, the threshold level method has been used to identify hydrological drought periods and extract its characteristics. The results of the analysis of the last 35 years of hydrological droughts in the Daryan Basin showed that 44 drought events occurred in this basin, which in total, led to a reduction in surface flow volume of about 140 million cubic meters in this basin.
Conclusion The simulation results of SWAT model showed that the annual average runoff of the sea basin in the first period (2020-49) in all three scenarios increases by 3.7 and 6%, respectively, compared to the base period. While in the rest of the periods of all scenarios, runoff reduction is predicted compared to the base period. Accordingly, a decrease in surface runoff compared to the base period is predicted for five months of the year (April to August) and an increase in the remaining months. Future changes in precipitation at Tabriz station, which is the basis for modeling runoff in the Daryan basin, are not very noticeable compared to the base period, and only in the period (2049-2020) all three scenarios are predicted to increase by 5, 2 and 8%, respectively, compared to the base period. In the other periods, in all three scenarios, a decrease in rainfall is predicted compared to the base period. Results of evaluating the effects of climate change on rainfall and surface runoff in the Daryan Basin with the results of other researchers in the catchment area of ​​Lake Urmia, including: Goodarzi and Fatehifar (2010) in the Azarshahrchai Basin, Qaderpour et al. (2016), Dariane et al. (2019) ), Sobhani et al. (2015), Goodarzi et al. (2015) and Salehpour and Malekian (2019) are consistent.

Water is one of the main factors of natural environment which has a great influence on other environmental factors and human activities. Climate elements have direct and indirect impact on human life. The climate type of each region represents vegetation, soil, animal life, water status, and, to a large extent, human economic activities including industrial, agricultural, tourism, etc. are controlled by the elements of the climate (Hobbs 1981) Climatic elements and parameters have applications in most of regional construction plans. Without attention to climatic elements and their exact study, most regional planning will certainly face difficulties. One of the best methods for recognizing the climatic elements of a region is having a comprehensive and basic information about these elements and their zoning. The zoning of climatic elements such as radiation, temperature, precipitation, humidity, pressure, etc. and preparation of their zoning maps can be used as a tool for planners. Today, Geographic Information System (GIS) technology is instrumental in geography. Accurate and advanced software of GIS (such as Arc / info, Arc / view, Arc /... GIS) and modern hardware (fast computers, scanners, plotters, printers, etc.), have, in addition to facilitating the work of geographers in the study and analysis of various scientific issues, increased the accuracy and speed of their operation. Currently, most branches of the science of geography utilize the GIS in urban, rural, regional, land lay, hydrologic, meteorological, environmental, etc. analyses and studies. The large region of ​​Azerbaijan (East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan and Ardebil) in the northwest of the country is one of the regions of the country with climatic diversity. Due to different topographical conditions and passage of western air masses, special climatic conditions have dominated the region. In this study, the elements of the Azerbaijan climate were analyzed and zoned using Arc / View software. Finally, the climatic zoning maps of the area were drawn up for each of the parameters.