ali nikfarjam
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زمینه و اهداف
آگاهی از وضعیت اپیدمیولوژیک بیماری در آسایشگاه ها با هدف دستیابی به درک دقیقی از وضعیت بیماری، کنترل آن در میان گروه های در معرض خطر بالای ابتلا و سیاست گذاری های صحیح الزامی است. با توجه به نبود مطالعه ای مشابه در ایران، مطالعه حاضر به بررسی شیوع و روند بروز بیماری کووید-19 در آسایشگاه های تحت پوشش دانشگاه علوم پزشکی تهران پرداخته است.
روش بررسیدر مطالعه مقطعی حاضر داده های مورد مطالعه شامل تعداد کل مددجویان سالمند و غیر سالمند، تعداد کارکنان، تعداد موارد جدید بیماری، موارد فوت و تست های صورت گرفته به تفکیک کارکنان و مددجویان بود. از روش های آماری نظیر تناسب های ساده با فاصله اطمینان 95% و نمودارهای خطی جهت آنالیز اطلاعات استفاده شد.
یافته هاشیوع کلی کووید-19 در آسایشگاه ها از ابتدای اپیدمی تا اوایل آذرماه سال 1399 برابر با: 26% (27-25: CI95%) بوده است. شیوع در کارکنان برابر با 23.7% (25-21: CI95%) بود و در مددجویان سالمند و غیر سالمند به ترتیب برابر با 50.16% (52-48: CI95%) و 9.33% (11-7: CI95%) به دست آمد. بیشترین تعداد بیماری در آبان ماه اتفاق افتاده بود.
نتیجه گیریبه نظر می رسد الگوی رخداد بیماری در آسایشگاه ها متاثر از رخداد بیماری در جمعیت عمومی باشد، اما به دلیل آسیب پذیر بودن مددجویان ساکن در آسایشگاه ها، جلوگیری از ورود عفونت به درون آسایشگاه ها وگسترش آن ضروری بوده و نیازمند برنامه ریزی های اساسی است.
کلید واژگان: شیوع, کووید-19, آسایشگاه هاEBNESINA, Volume:25 Issue: 3, 2023, PP 4 -13Background and aimsAwareness about the epidemiological status of the disease in nursing homes is required for achieving accurate information about the disease status, its control among the high-risk groups, and proper policies. Due to the lack of a similar study in Iran, the current study was aimed to determine the prevalence and trend of COVID-19 infection in nursing homes in Tehran University of Medical Sciences.
MethodsIn the current cross-sectional study, the studied data included the total number of elderly and non-elderly residents, the number of staff, the number of new cases, the number of deaths, and the number of performed tests separately in staff and residents. Statistical methods such as simple proportions with 95% confidence interval (CI) and line plots were used to analyze the data.
ResultsThe overall prevalence of COVID-19 from the beginning of the epidemic to the beginning of December 2020 was 26% (95%CI: 25 27). The prevalence among staff was 23.7% (95%CI: 21 25). Also, among the elderly and non-elderly residents was 50.16% (95%CI: 48 52) and 9.33% (95%CI: 7-11), respectively. The highest number of cases occurred in November.
ConclusionIt seems that the pattern of infection occurrence in nursing homes is affected by the prevalence of the disease in the general population, but due to the vulnerability of residents living in nursing homes, prevention the infection from entering and spreading within these centers requires fundamental planning.
Keywords: Prevalence, COVID-19, Nursing Homes -
The delayed Coker process as an upgrading process has the main impact on the productivity of the Refinery Complexes. To determine the impact of different operating conditions on the product yield distribution of the delayed coking process, several experiments were designed and conducted in a prefabricated pilot plant. The experiments were conducted on different Iranian vacuum residues at temperatures ranging from 420°C to 480°C and at atmospheric pressure. Reaction times were within the range of 5-120 minutes. A four lumps kinetic model has been developed based on the experimental results. The lumps—which included Volatile products, coke, feed, and an intermediate phase between coke and feed—were defined to precisely monitor the yield distribution of products throughout the reaction time. The feedstocks utilized were three different vacuum residues and their blends. The mixtures were produced by using different mixing ratios of the three vacuum residues. The Statistical analysis shows that this model has R-squared, RMSE, SSE, and MRE equal to 0.99, 0.022, 0.08, and 3.537%, respectively. This shows that the developed model is sufficiently accurate. The experimental and modeling results in this research reveal that by increasing the temperature, the yield of coke and gas is abated. However, the yield of the distillate is escalated. This investigation illustrates that the production of an intermediate reaction has the highest amount of activation energy in comparison with the other reactions. Also, the results indicate that the production reaction rate of coke has the highest amount compared to other reactions.
Keywords: Delayed coking, Kinetic model f, our lumps, Thermal cracking -
مجله دانشکده بهداشت و انستیتو تحقیقات بهداشتی، سال نوزدهم شماره 3 (پیاپی 75، پاییز 1400)، صص 315 -328زمینه و هدف
روند شناسایی موارد کووید-19 میتواند اطلاعات ارزشمندی در مورد پوشش برنامه های تشخیصی و غربالگری در طول زمان در اختیار قرار دهد. پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی روند موارد سرپایی کووید-19 در مراکز خدمات جامع سلامت منتخب تحت پوشش معاونت بهداشت دانشگاه علوم پزشکی تهران انجام شد.
روش کاراین مطالعه به صورت مقطعی توصیفی انجام شد. داده های موجود شامل تعداد مراجعین و نمونه های PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) مثبت از 25 فرودین تا 5 دی ماه 1399 وارد مطالعه شدند. از شاخص های مرکزی و پراکندگی (میانگین، میانه، و انحراف معیار و دامنه میان چارکی) برای توصیف داده های کمی و همچنین از نمودارهای خطی و میله ای نیز به جهت توصیف روند متغیرهای مورد بررسی در طول زمان استفاده شد. کلیه آنالیزها توسط نرم افزار Excel 2016 و SPSS22 صورت گرفت.
نتایجبیشترین تعداد موارد مشکوک کووید-19در ماه های اردیبهشت، تیر و آبان بود. 2 مورد پیک در روند موارد مثبت کووید 19 وجود داشت و بیشترین نسبت موارد مثبت روزانه کووید19 در اواخر خرداد و اوایل تیرماه، همچنین اواخر شهریور و هفته اول آبان و میانه آذر ماه دیده شد. بیشترین تعداد افراد مراجعه کننده و تست شده در مرکز بهداشت جنوب تهران بود.
نتیجه گیریبا توجه به وجود دو موج اپیدمی در طول دوره مورد مطالعه، در صورت عدم برنامه ریزی و تمرکز بر خدمات بهداشت همگانی و مراقبت های اولیه بهداشتی توسط مسیولین و سیاستگزاران سلامت پیشگیری از بروز موج های بعدی غیرقابل اجتناب است.
کلید واژگان: کووید19, روند, تشخیص, مراکز سلامت, تهرانBackground and AimThe process of identifying Covid 19 cases over time (the trend) can provide valuable information about the coverage of diagnostic and screening programs over time. This study aimed to investigate the outpatient trend of Covid-19 in selected comprehensive health service centers of Tehran University of Meical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Materials and MethodsThis was a descriptive cross-sectional study. The data collected inculded the number of referalls and Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR)-positive individuals between April 13 and December 25, 2020. Central and dispersion indices (mean, median, standard deviation and interquartile range) were used to describe quantitative variables. In addition, linear and bar charts were used to describe the trend of the variables over time. All analyses were performed using the Excel 2016 and SPSS 22 software.
ResultsThe highest numbers of suspected cases of Covid-19 were found to be in April, June and October. There were 2 peaks in the trend of positive cases of Covid 19, and the highest proportions of daily positive cases of Covid 19 was seen in late June and early July, as well as in late September, October, and December. The highest numbers of individuals referred and tested were observed in the South of Tehran Health Center.
ConclusionConsidering the occurrence of two epidemic peaks during the study period, the occurrence of further epidemic peaks is almost certain to occur if there is no proper planning for public health services and primary health care by the responsible health authorities and policy-makers.
Keywords: COVID- 19, Trend, Diagnosis, Tehran, Health Centers -
Background
Human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is a major public health problem in Iran. It imposes heavy costs on governments and affected people. Determining the survival duration of patients and recognizing the related factors can help the disease surveillance system.
ObjectivesThe current study aimed at determining the survival rate and the related factors concerning patients with HIV/AIDS identified in Tehran, Iran.
MethodsThe study population of the current retrospective cohort consisted of patients with HIV/AIDS covered by the Health Center of Southern Tehran. The data were obtained by referring to the HIV/AIDS care centers and reviewing the patients’ records. Survival rates of the study subjects during 10 years follow-up were calculated. The Cox proportional-hazards model was used to determine the relationship between independent variables and survival of patients with HIV/AIDS.
ResultsA total of 487 patients were investigated in the current study. Four-hundred thirty-three subjects (88.9%) were male, and 54 (11.1%) female. The mean ± standard deviation of the participants’ age was 44.08 ± 9.00 years. According to univariate analyses, the variables of gender, marital status, education level, occupational status, transmission way, infection with hepatitis C or tuberculosis, and history of antiretroviral treatment were significantly associated with the survival time of patients with AIDS. In the final model, a significant relationship was found between the variables of treatment, coinfection with tuberculosis, occupational status, education level, marital status, and mortality.
ConclusionsThe current study was one of the few research that examined the survival rate of HIV-infected patients in Iran. Considering the expansion of AIDS epidemic in Iran, it is necessary to take appropriate measures to prevent the spread of the epidemic and decrease the mortality rate of infected patients through early detection and timely treatment of HIV-positive people coinfected with tuberculosis, creation of employment opportunities for patients and addicted individuals, controlling substance abuse, and paying more attention to harm reduction programs in individuals that have unsafe sex as one of the most important high-risk groups to increase their survival time.
Keywords: Risk Factor, HIV AIDS, Survival -
مجله دانشکده پزشکی دانشگاه علوم پزشکی تهران، سال هفتاد و هفتم شماره 2 (پیاپی 218، اردیبهشت 1398)، صص 123 -131زمینه و هدفمدل های مارکوف چندوضعیتی جهت بررسی پیشروی بیماری ایدز با تقسیم بندی مارکر آزمایشگاهی سلول CD4 کاربرد گسترده ای دارند. این مدل ها با تعداد وضعیت های مختلف، نتایج متفاوتی از اثر متغیر کمکی و پیشگویی روند بیماری ایدز دارند. هدف پژوهش حاضر، مقایسه ی مدل چهار و پنج وضعیتی با مدل سه وضعیتی جهت انتخاب مدل با توان پیشگویی بهتر وقوع ایدز و مرگ در افراد آلوده به ویروس سندرم نقص ایمنی انسانی بود.روش بررسیاین پژوهش یک مطالعه ی هم گروهی است که بر روی 305 فرد آلوده به ویروس سندرم نقص ایمنی انسانی که از فروردین 1374 تا دی ماه 1389 به مرکز تحقیقات ایدز ایران در تهران مراجعه کرده اند و تا سال 1393 مورد پیگیری قرار گرفته اند، انجام شده است. سه مدل مارکوف همگن زمان سه، چهار و پنج وضعیتی به داده ها برازش داده شد. مقایسه ی مدل ها با استفاده از معیار اصلاح شده ی آکاییکه ی DRAIC و معیار اعتبارسنجی متقابل براساس درست نمایی DRLCV به همراه فاصله ردیابی 95% آن ها انجام شد. برای برازش مدل ها از نرم افزار R استفاده شد.یافته هاتوان پیشگویی مدل چهار وضعیتی از مدل پنج وضعیتی بیشتر است. در مدل چهار وضعیتی نسبت مخاطره ی پیشروی به مرگ برای افرادی که درمان ضد رتروویروس خیلی فعال دریافت کرده اند 0/64 کمتر از دسته ای بود که درمان را دریافت نکرده بودند. همچنین نسبت مخاطره ی پیشروی بیماری در مردان به زنان 2033 برابر بود. همچنین نسبت مخاطره ی پیشروی به مرگ در مردان به زنان 4/9 برابر بوده است.نتیجه گیریمعیار های DRAIC و DRLCV نشان دادند که مدل چهاروضعیتی توان پیشگویی بهتری از روند پیشروی بیماری در مقایسه با مدل پنج وضعیتی دارد.کلید واژگان: تعداد سلول های CD4, درمان ضدرتروویروس خیلی فعال, سندرم نقص ایمنی انسانی, فرآیند مارکوفBackgroundThe Multi state Markov models have extensively application with categorization of laboratory marker of CD4 cells for evaluation of HIV disease progression. These models with different states result in different effects of covariates and prediction of HIV disease trend. The main purpose of this study was comparison of four and five states models with the three- state in order to select the model with better prediction ability of occurrence of HIV and finally death in HIV positive people.MethodsA total of 305 HIV positive people were included in this cohort study in the Iran AIDS center in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Tehran that entered during March 1995 to January 2005 and then fallowed up to October 2014. The three continuous- time Markov models of three-, four- and five- state models were fitted to data to describe the evolution of a HIV disease Trend over different states.
For comparison of models, two criteria of modification of Akaike’s criterion (DRAIC) and likelihood cross-validation criterion (DRLCV) along with their 95% tracking interval was used. For fitting of these models and estimation of transition matrix and the hazard ratio of gender and treatment independent variables, the msm package of R project for statistical computing, version R 3.2.4 (www.r-project.org) was used.ResultsThe results showed that the four- state model has more prediction ability than five-state model for evaluation of HIV disease Trend. In the four-state model, the progression hazard ratio to death for people who received highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) was 0.64 lower than who didn’t get this therapy. Moreover, the progression hazard ratio for men was 2.33 fold in comparison to women. The disease progression hazard ratio to death was 4.9 fold for men in comparison to women.ConclusionThe (DRAIC) and (DRLCV) criterions showed that the four-state model has more predictive ability of the progression trend of HIV disease in comparison of five-state model.Keywords: CD4 cell counts, highly active antiretroviral therapy, human immunodeficiency virus, Markov process -
BackgroundColorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in Iran, where there is no mass screening for the disease yet. We aimed to measure the feasibility of a pilot CRC screening program based on fecal immunochemical test (FIT) in Iranian population and the implications for scaling-up at the national level.MethodsA single quantitative FIT was offered by health navigators to individuals aged between 45 and 75 years in primary health centers in rural and urban areas in Tehran. Participants who had a positive FIT were referred for colonoscopy.ResultsA total of 1044 asymptomatic average-risk individuals were enrolled. The mean age (SD) was 54.1 ± 7.0 years and nearly 63.0% (n = 657) were female. Only a small fraction of the participants had a prior screening practice (2.2%) and were aware of colon cancer (13.7%). In sum, 1002 returned the FIT kit, of whom the stool sample was unsatisfactory for testing in six participants (0.6%). The FIT uptake was 96.0%, positivity rate was 9.1% and the detection rates were 11.9% for adenomas and 7.1% for advanced adenomas. No cancer was detected. The positive predictive value (PPV) of the FIT was about 17% for any colonic neoplasms.ConclusionThis is the first study that reports minimal quality metrics within a CRC screening process. FIT modality as a test of choice for colon cancer screening in average-risk people is a safe and highly acceptable method of screening in Iranian people. The results of the current study may not be limited to Iranians, and could have implications to other developing countries with similar trends of CRC epidemic.Keywords: Colorectal cancer, feasibility studies, patient navigation, population screening
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زمینهتاثیر درمان های ضدرتروویروس خیلی فعال بر افزایش بقای بیماران آلوده به ویروس HIV در مطالعات بسیاری به اثبات رسیده است. باقی ماندن طولانی مدت فرد آلوده در سطح پایینی از تعداد سلول های CD4 سبب می شود بیماری به سمت وضعیت ایدز یا ابتلا به عفونت های فرصت طلب پیشرفت کند. از این رو نگه داشتن بیماران در سطح بالایی از سیستم ایمنی اهمیت بسزایی دارد.روش ها103 بیمار آلوده به ویروسHIV که تحت درمان ضدرتروویروس خیلی فعال قرار گرفته اند، از فروردین ماه 1374 در یک مطالعه کوهورت پیگیری شدند. از یک مدل مارکوف ناهمگن زمان برای برآورد احتمال بازیابی تعداد سلول های CD4 در این افراد استفاده شد.یافته هادر طول مطالعه 18 بیمار فوت شدند. نسبت شانس بازیابی سطح سیستم ایمنی از وضعیت 2 به 1 بعد از 65 ماه از آغاز درمان 3 برابر (فاصله اطمینان95%(19/5و66/1)) قبل از این زمان است. این پارامتر برای افراد با وضعیت 3 سیستم ایمنی بعد از 65 ماه از آغاز درمان کمتر از قبل از آن است، نسبت شانس 3/0 (فاصله اطمینان 95% (73/0و11/0)). اگر فردی بیش از 5/5 سال در وضعیت 2 سیستم ایمنی باشد با احتمال بیشتر از 55درصد در طی یک سال به وضعیت 1 بازخواهد گشت.نتیجه گیرینتایج نشان داد درمان ضدرتروویروس خیلی فعال نقش به سزایی در بازیابی سطح ایمنی بدن در بیمارانی که سطح بالای ایمنی در آن ها برای مدت طولانی تری باقی بماند، دارد. آغاز زود هنگام درمان منجر به جلوگیری از کاهش تعداد سلول های CD4 می شود، این نتیجه همراستا با توصیه سازمان بهداشت جهانی برای آغاز درمان از سطوح بالای تعداد سلول های CD4 در بیماران است.کلید واژگان: ویروس نقص سیستم ایمنی, تعداد سلول های CD4, درمان ضدرتروویروس خیلی فعال, مدل مارکوف ناهمگن زمانIntroductionPrevious studies found highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) to be associated with improved survival among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected peoples. The longer someones CD4 cell count remains low, the higher the risk of complications including those due to AIDS events or Opportunistic infections. Therefore, monitoring patients to maintain their high level of immune deficiency is important.MethodsOne hundred and three HIV infected patients who had already initiated HAART undergone a longitudinal investigation from the April 1995. A non-homogenous Markov model was used to estimate the probability of CD4 cells recovery in these patients.ResultsEighteen patients died during the study treatment. Hazard ratio of recovery from state 2 of immune deficiency to state 1 is 3 times ((1.66, 5.19) 95% confidence interval) at 65 month after initiating HAART compared to before it. This parameter for recovery from state 3 to 2 was 0.3 with (0.11, 0.73) 95% confidence interval. If a patient remains at state 2 for more than 65 months after the treatment initiation the probability of recovery to state 1 was more than 55 percent.ConclusionThe use of HAART was effective in recovering the CD4 cells count especially when a patient remains in better immune state for long years. Our findings were in line with WHO guidelines on HAART which recommend initiating HAART at CD4 cell counts of 350499 cells/ml.Keywords: human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), CD4 cell counts, HAART, non-homogenous Markov model
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Background In Islamic countries alcohol consumption is considered as against religious values. Therefore, estimation of frequency of alcohol consumptions using direct methods is prone to different biases. In this study, we indirectly estimated the frequency of alcohol use in Iran, in network of a representative sample using network scale up (NSU) method.
Methods In a national survey, about 400 participants aged above 18 at each province, around 12 000 in total, were recruited. In a gender-match face to face interview, respondents were asked about the number of those who used alcohol (even one episode) in previous year in their active social network, classified by age and gender. The results were corrected for the level of visibility of alcohol consumption.
Results The relative frequency of alcohol use at least once in previous year, among general population aged above 15, was estimated at 2.31% (95% CI: 2.12%, 2.53%). The relative frequency among males was about 8 times higher than females (4.13% versus 0.56%). The relative frequency among those aged 18 to 30 was 3 times higher than those aged above 30 (3.97% versus 1.36%). The relative frequency among male aged 18 to 30 was about 7%.
Conclusion It seems that the NSU is a feasible method to monitor the relative frequency of alcohol use in Iran, and possibly in countries with similar culture. Alcohol use was lower than non-Muslim countries, however, its relative frequency, in particular in young males, was noticeable.Keywords: Alcohol, Abuse, Network Scale Up (NSU), Iran -
مجله دانشکده پزشکی دانشگاه علوم پزشکی تهران، سال هفتاد و سوم شماره 9 (پیاپی 177، آذر 1394)، صص 639 -945زمینه و هدفپس از عفونت اولیه HIV با پیشرفت بیماری تعداد سلول های CD4 کاهش می یابد. سطح این سلول ها شاخص مناسبی جهت ارزیابی وضعیت ایمنی بدن در مبتلایان به ویروس HIV است. هدف از پژوهش کنونی بررسی روند تغییرات سلول های CD4 در افراد HIV مثبت تحت درمان با داروهای ضدرتروویروسی به وسیله مدل چند وضعیتی مارکوف بود.روش بررسیپژوهش کوهورت حاضر شامل 122 فرد HIV مثبت مراجعه کننده به مرکز ایدز ایران واقع در بیمارستان امام خمینی (ره) شهر تهران بود. این افراد از فروردین 1374 تا دی 1389 به این مرکز وارد و با داروهای ضدرتروویروسی تحت درمان قرار گرفته و تا زمان فوت یا تا پایان مطالعه آبان 1393 پی گیری شدند. مبتلایان بالای 18 سالی که حداقل سه بار تحت آزمایشات مربوطه قرار گرفتند به مطالعه وارد شدند. داده های ثبت شده جهت برآورد زمان ماندگاری در وضعیت های بیماری که بر اساس سطح سلول های CD4 تعریف شد، به وسیله مدل چندوضعیتی مارکوف استفاده شد.یافته هانمونه شامل (18%) 22 زن با میانگین سن 32/43 (انحراف معیار 33/8) و (82%) 100 مرد با میانگین سنی 28/45 (انحراف معیار 34/8) سال بود. سن افراد به دو گروه 40 سال و کمتر، (1/54%) 66 نفر و بیشتر از آن، (9/45%) 56 نفر، تقسیم شد. احتمال های انتقال بین وضعیت ها برای مدت زمان یک ساله و شش ساله برآورد شد، اگر فردی در وضعیت یک CD4 باشد با احتمال 51% یک سال بعد در همان وضعیت خواهد بود. این احتمال پس از شش سال 33% خواهد بود. در طول مطالعه 29 نفر فوت شدند. میانگین زمان اقامت افراد در وضعیت چهار، 21 ماه برآورد شد. نسبت بخت انتقال از وضعیت سه به وضعیت چهار در مردان 4/4 زنان برآورد شد.نتیجه گیریاستفاده از درمان های ضدرتروویرسی در افراد با عفونت HIV سبب کاهش بار ویروسی و افزایش عمر افراد می شود. پژوهش کنونی این روند را با برآورد میانگین زمان های ماندگاری تا انتقال به وضعیت های وخیم تر نشان داد.
کلید واژگان: درمان ضدرتروویروسی, تعداد سلول های CD4, فرآیند مارکوف, سندرم نقص ایمنی انسانیBackgroundAfter primary infection, the number of CD4 T-cells decreases with disease progress. The patient’s immunological status could inform by The CD4 T-cell counts over the time. The main purpose of this study is to assess the trend of CD4 cell count in HIV+ patient that received Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) by using a multistate Markov model to estimate transition intensities and transition probabilities among various states.MethodsA total of 122 HIV+ patients were included in this cohort study who are undergoing Antiretroviral Therapy treatment in the Iran AIDS center in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Tehran that inter during March 1995 to January 2005 and then fallow up to October 2014. All adults with at least two follow-up visits in addition to their pre-ART treatment were considered to be eligible for inclusion in the study. Continuous-time Markov processes are used to describe the evolution of a disease over different states. The mean sojourn time for each state was estimated by multi state Markov model.ResultsSample included 22 (18%) female with a mean age of 43.32 (standard deviation 8.33) years and 100 (82%) male with a mean age of 45.28 (standard deviation 8.34) year. Age was divided in to two categories, 40 years old and lower than that 66 (54.1) patents and persons older than 40 years old 56 (45.9) patents. A total of 122 patients were included. 29 patients died during follow-up. One year transition probability for staying in state 1 of CD4 cell count was 51%. This probability for six year was 33%. The mean sojourn time for sate 4 was 21 month. The hazard ratio of transition from state 3 to state 4 was 4.4 in men related to women.ConclusionThe use of antiretroviral therapy in the treatment of HIV infected persons reduce viral replication and increase in CD4 T lymphocyte count, and delay the progression of disease. This paper is shown the progression of this trend.Keywords: antiretroviral therapy, CD4 cell counts, human immunodeficiency virus, Markov process -
این مطالعه توصیفی و تحلیلی است. برای گردآوری اطلاعات از روش های مصاحبه با خبرگان منتخب، تکمیل پرسشنامه کتبی توسط کارشناسان ستادی و دانشگاهی درمان اعتیاد و همچنین مصاحبه با مسئولان فنی 300 مرکز نمونه گیری شده از 31 استان و مرور اسناد استفاده شده است. بر اساس داده های به دست آمده «اصول راهنما» برای طراحی نظام پایش و ارزشیابی تعیین شده و پس از کمیته راهبری (ذینفعان) نظام مورد هدف این مطالعه در قالب «شیوه نامه و فهرست بازبینی» پایش و ارزشیابی مراکز طراحی شده است.
نتایج حاصل از این مطالعه نشان می داد که علاوه بر دیدگاه های خبرگان، کارشناسان ستادی و دانشگاهی که نظام پایش و ارزشیابی فعلی را غیرجامع و نیازمند ارتقا می دانستند هفتاد درصد مدیران مراکز از روش پایش و ارزشیابی فعلی مراکز رضایت متوسط و یا نارضایتی داشتند. نقاط تمرکز ارتقای وضعیت فعلی در بهبود هماهنگی افقی و عمودی نظارت در سطوح ملی، استانی و منطقه ای، داشتن ساختار، تغییر نگاه و توانمندی مدیران و ارایه کنندگان خدمات درمان در به کارگیری روش های استاندارد درمان های دارویی توام با درمان های غیردارویی، تغییر رویکرد ارزشیابی مراکز از درون داده ها به نتیجه گرایی درمان، ظرفیت سازی در ارزشیابان، ارتقای مسئولیت پذیری در مدیران و ارایه کنندگان خدمات، سطح بندی و تشویق مراکز بود. ویژگی های نظام تدوین شده در قالب شیوه نامه و فهرست بازبینی عبارت است از شفاف بودن وظایف در سطوح ملی، استانی، ارزشیابی تیمی، شیوه کاربست نتایج ارزشیابی، زمان بندی سالانه ارزشیابی و ارتباطات افقی و عمودی، سطح بندی مراکز در قالب چراغ راهنما شامل مراکز سبز (رعایت بیش از 80 درصد الزامات)، زرد (رعایت 60 تا 80 درصد) و قرمز (زیر 60 درصد)، مشخص کردن منابع لازم و مشخص شدن 100 متغیر پایش. استقرار شیوه نامه و فهرست بازبینی پس از تصویب و ابلاغ کمیته نظارت بر درمان ستادمبارزه با موادمخدر ممکن می شود. پایلوت فهرست بازبینی در چند مرکز به تکمیل یا تصحیح آن کمک کرده و ابلاغ همزمان شیوه نامه و فهرست بازبینی با فرصتی یک ساله امکان تطبیق مراکز با شرایط جدید را فراهم می کند. آموزش همزمان کمیته های نظارت بر درمان استان ها و ارزشیابان، تکمیل نرم افزار ثبت خدمات سوء مصرف مواد با استفاده از نتایج این مطالعه، طراحی و اجرای ماژول آموزشی ویژه درمان های غیردارویی برای ارایه کنندگان خدمات به استقرار هر چه بهتر نظام پایش و ارزشیابی کمک می نماید.
کلید واژگان: پایش و ارزشیابی, مراکز درمان سوء مصرف موادمخدر, آئین نامهobjective (s): To achieve a model to monitor and evaluate drug abuse treatment centers in Iran.MethodsThis was a nationwide study. The data were collected through interviews with selected experts، experts working in drug treatment centers using a questionnaire، and interviewing technical officers (300 centers from 31 provinces)، and existing documents. Then، based on ‘guiding principles’ it was decided to provide a model for monitoring and evaluating drug abuse treatment centers.ResultsOverall we found 3 types of centers: complying with more than 80% of obligations، complying with 60% to 80% of obligations، and complying with under 60% of obligations. In addition to views of the university and staff experts who assume the current monitoring and evaluation system is incomplete and require further development، 70% of directors were dissatisfied or moderately satisfied with the current method of monitoring and evaluations. The analysis of the data indicated that in order to further develop the current situation، there is need to concentrate on improving horizontal and vertical coordination in supervising at national، provincial، and regional levels. In addition the findings indicated that there were several confusions in duties among staffs. As a result a style sheet and check list were provided to clarify duties in the centers at each level.ConclusionEstablishing style sheet and checklist might help to implement policies more effectively. This also might increase satisfaction rates in drug abuse treatment center.Keywords: Monitoring, evaluation, Centers for drug abuse treatment, Regulations -
BackgroundEvidence shows that in Iran alcohol abuse rate may be of concern, especially among the youth. The mental and social health and addiction Department of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education has designed a plan to prevent, treat, and rehabilitate the patients abusing alcohol in a time period of 2011‑2015.MethodsIn a 6‑month period, three guiding committees of experts in the field of alcohol abuse reviewed the literature. The meetings of the steering committee were held in order to collect the comments of the policy‑makers in recognition of the problem, orientation, and administration procedures for the suggested strategies. The first input was discussed in the committee meeting. In the orientation phase, intervention strategies were suggested whose base was the evaluation of the previous international guidelines. In the final phase, the suggested strategies and challenges and their possible solutions were criticized. Finally, using these strategies, appropriate interventions were defined.ResultsPreventing alcohol supply, school‑ and community‑based prevention efforts, monitoring and vigilance were defined as primary prevention. While secondary and tertiary prevention are defined to be the treating and rehabilitating services for the alcohol abusers.ConclusionsWe hope by using this strategy we will be able to control alcohol abuse in our country. The first step to reach this aim is done by breaking the taboo of giving alcohol‑related information and news using media and educational programs especially to the young population.Keywords: Addictive, alcoholism, behavior, prevention, control, primary prevention
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BackgroundIn the case of sensitive questions such as number of alcoholics known, majority of respondents might give an answer of zero. Poisson regression model (P) is the standard tool to analyze count data. However, P provides poor fit in the case of zero inflated counts, when over-dispersion exists. Therefore, the questions to be addressed are to compare performance of alternative count regression models; and to investigate whether characteristics of respondents affect their responses.MethodsA total of 700 participants were asked about number of people they know in hidden groups; alcoholics, methadone users, and Female Sex Workers (FSW). Five regression models were fitted to these outcomes: Logistic, P, Negative Binomial (NB), Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP), and Zero Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB). Models were compared in terms of Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT), Vuong, AIC and Sum Square of Error (SSE).ResultsPercentages of zero were 35% for number of alcoholics, 50% for methadone users, and 65% for FSWs. ZINB provided the best fit for alcoholics, and NB provided the best fit for other outcomes. In addition, we noticed that young respondents, male and those with low education were more likely to know or reveal sensitive information.ConclusionsAlthough P is the first choice for modeling of count data in many cases, it seems because of over-dispersion of zero inflated counts in the case of sensitive questions, other models, specifying NB and ZINB, might have better goodness of fit.Keywords: Regression, Over, dispersion, Negative Binomial distribution, Alcoholics, Poisson
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BackgroundThe Ministry of Health, Treatment and Medical Education of Iran has recently announced an estimated figure of 200,000 injecting drug users (IDUs). The aim of this study was to pilot a national program using demographics, types of drug abuse and prevalence of blood-borne infections among IDUs.MethodsIn order to elicit data on demographics, types of drug abuse and prevalence of blood-borne infections among IDUs, a questionnaire was designed in the Bureau of Mental-Social Health and Addiction in collaboration with Iran’s Drug Control Headquarters of the Police Department. Therapeutical alliance of addiction in Shafagh Center was based on Methadone Maintenance Therapy (MMT).ResultsAmong 402 reported IDUs most of them were male, single and in age range of 20 to 39 years old with 72.7% history of imprisonment. Most of them had elementary and high school education and a history of addiction treatment. The majority were current users of opioid, heroin and crack. The prevalence of blood-borne infections was 65.9% and 18.8% for HCV and HIV/AIDS infections, respectively.ConclusionPrevention programs about harm reduction, treatment and counseling should include young IDUs as a core focus of their intervention structure.Keywords: IDUs, Harm reduction, Methadone maintenance treatment, Iran
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