amin gallavani

The purpose of this study is to find out the impact of financial development on monetary policy efficiency (the effect of financial development on the central bank's target variables) in OECD and OPEC countries for the period of 2001-2017, based on annual data. To achieve this purpose, a comprehensive index, which had been introduced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2016, was optimized by using fuzzy logic and was used as a proxy for financial development. Additionally, in order to evaluate the interrelationships among variables in model, we used the GMM econometric model. The results indicate that in OPEC countries, the weak financial development increases the efficiency of monetary policies on inflation, while it does not have a significant effect on output growth, and also the results show that in OECD countries, the strong financial development increases the efficiency of monetary policies on output growth and inflation, but these effects are small compared to OPEC countries.

This study attempts to find out the impact of financial development on inflation targeting and monetary policy efficiency in OECD and OPEC countries for the period 2001-2017 based on annual data. For this purpose, the long-term inflation trend, which was extracted by the Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter, is considered as a proxy for the target inflation rate, and the difference between this proxy and the actual inflation rate was entered to the model as a dependent variable. Also, the broad-based index, which had been introduced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2016, optimized by using fuzzy logic, has been used as a proxy for financial development. The results show that in OPEC countries, financial development has been neutral on monetary policy efficiency through output growth, which is consistent with the monetary neutral theory, and also financial development strengthen the efficiency of inflation targeting in these countries. On the other hand, the study indicates in OECD countries, financial development has been neutral on monetary policy efficiency through output growth, and unlike in OPEC countries, financial development has been neutral on inflation targeting efficiency in the period under review. This confirms that a high level of financial development reduces the efficiency of inflation targeting.

The government, investors and analysts are interested with the topic of Economic security, because this is one of the most important and effective factors that influences on macroeconomic variables. Investors and planners would be able to adopt optimal decisions and policies by accessing the data of economic security procedure. Accordingly, this study simulates and estimates the economic security index and it’s volatility in Iran for the period of 1965 till 2007, by using Fuzzy logic method and MATLAB program.This measure is important because it can help us to understand the effect of government policies on fluctuation of economic security. The result of paper illustrates that the economic security index was the maximum amount for 1976, and was the lowest amount for 1982. In the last ten years of the study period, the index has shown a growing trend.

In This paper، we estimate the energy consumption function، using the ARDL approach for the period of 1971-2008. The results offer empirical evidence of the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in Iran. There is a long run and stable relationship between energy consumption، gross domestic production (GDP)، urbanization and energy prices. The data confirm a positive relation between energy consumption and urbanization for the long run and short run in Iran. The results of the ECM test، shows that all imbalances in the model، are resolved in the long run، and the correction of short run error takes less than 3 years.