hamid abrishami

Although there are many studies on the drivers of FDI inflows, very little attention has been paid to the impact of population health as a specific form of human capital that affects labor productivity. Therefore, according to this necessity, the aim of the current research is to analyze the sensitivity of health indicators on the flow of foreign direct investment for the top 47 science-producing countries that were selected based on the report of the SC imago-Institutions Rankings system. In this regard, the research model was estimated based on the dynamic panel data approach for the period from 2011 to 2020 and the obtained results showed that life expectancy at birth and death rate as two indicators showing the health of the population have significant positive and negative effects on are foreign direct investment inflows; So that with the increase in life expectancy at birth and the decrease in the death rate, the inflow of foreign direct investment increases and vice versa; Therefore, it is concluded that foreign direct investment has a strong and non-fragile sensitivity to health components.

This paper aims to investigate the effect of demographic variables such as age, gender, education of the head of household, and the number of family members on the dynamics of net income in urban and rural households for the period 2000-2019. To this end, pseudo panel data constructing 25 age generations of people born in 1930-2004 has been used. The results show that males, the education of the family head, and the number of family members have a positive effect on the dynamics of the net income of households, while age has a negative effect. High level of income in the previous period will decrease the income change in future periods. In addition, the results show that all of the effective factors on dynamics of household income will increase the inequality in income changes, of which education, previous income, and age of head have the most determinant effect.

A different definition of ownership affects the structure of the ownership system and the rights that each person has, and affects the owner's relationship with the owned object and the owner's relationship with others. Also, any economic theory based on the related property system is formed and flourishes. Therefore, for the formation of the Islamic economic system, it is necessary to establish the Islamic property system first. In this article, we proceeded based on the library method and in an analytical-descriptive way. First, property rights as one of the basic institutions from the point of view of institutional economists and different approaches to it are examined. " Bundle of rights" is one of these; This approach breaks the right of ownership into smaller rights and therefore can create high flexibility in the ownership system in such a way that it transforms the property from a physical object to an economic asset. It can also lead to a reduction in transaction costs, which will increase economic efficiency based on Coase's theorem. In the following, due to the fact that revelation and the divine word have dealt with the main issues of human life, by referring to Al-Mizan's interpretation, property rights were examined from the perspective of related verses in the Qur'an. In the following, taking into account that revelation and the divine word have dealt with the main issues of human life, we examined property rights from the perspective of related verses in the Qur'an by referring to Al-Mizan's exegesis. The view of the Qur'an and Islamic teachings in this field is close to the approach of "Bundle of rights" and in fact ownership does not mean unquestionable control over the object and people’s ownership is contractual not real, and divine commands determine and limit the rights of each person. Accordingly, various rights of the owner have been mentioned in the related verses, and according to the conditions, restrictions and prohibitions have been imposed for some of these rights.

Today, one of the most important platforms for increasing economic interactions in the international arena, transferring new technologies and continuing economic growth, is foreign direct investment; Because achieving economic growth and development in any country requires the formation of capital to provide the required financial resources. Therefore, researchers are encouraged to search for specific variables in order to facilitate the attraction of foreign direct investment, among these variables is life expectancy at birth as a special form of human capital. Considering this necessity, the purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of life expectancy at birth on the flow of foreign direct investment in the top 47 science producing countries for the period from 2011 to 2020. For this purpose, the model of the current research was estimated based on the dynamic panel data approach and the results showed that all the studied variables including life expectancy at the beginning of production as an indicator of population health with different estimated coefficients have a positive and significant effect on foreign direct investment; Therefore, it is suggested to the policy makers in order to attract foreign direct investment, in addition to other attraction policies, to implement the human resource development policy such as the policy of promoting health and population health through increasing the budget of the health sector and achieving health infrastructure facilities, so that the health and Improve people's life expectancy and in this way facilitate the attraction of foreign direct investment to the country.

The objective of this study is to model the extreme dependence structure from the crude oil price to Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) index. For this purpose, the conditional extreme value theory (C-EVT) was used to model the marginal distribution of returns on stock and oil market during the period 2008 to 2021. Then, the dependence structure of the extreme return was estimated by Copula models. The results showed that the crude oil market has contagion effects on the TSE. These effects are asymmetric and there is more dependence on the left tail. In other words, as crude oil price falls, decline of the total index is expected and these effects are greater when a positive simultaneous change occurs between variables. Due to the financial risks of the existence of contagion, considering structural extreme dependence can calculate the portfolio risk accurately and reliably. Therefore, it is suggested to pay attention to the structure of extreme dependencies between assets in order to optimize the portfolio.

The financing of Iran's economy is bank-based and more than 80% of the financial needs of the economy are provided by the money market and banking system. This illustrates the importance of the banking system in the growth and development of the Iranian economy. Therefore, the resilient banking system can lead to greater economic resistance. This study investigates the resilience of the banking system in the Iranian economy by focusing on the consumer behavior of the facilities. Since the focus of the study is on consumer behavior (credit risk), among the Camel indices, the capital adequacy ratio and the ratio of non-current facilities to total facilities, the 10-year time series data (2007-2009) for the 10 selected banks Their extracted financial statements have been used. The study of resilience without shock or stress makes no sense. Therefore, the resilience of the banking system against shocks of GDP growth (supply shock), inflation rate (demand shock) and exchange rate shock (external shock) has been studied. So far, no research has been conducted on the relationship between resilience of the banking system and consumer behavior of facilities with this volume of comprehensive information (more than 85% of the country's banking system). The findings show that the banking system in the Iranian economy is not resistant to the shock of these variables and the negative effect of these shocks will be stable over time on the bank health indicators.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the output gap and NAIRU for Iran's economy, both of which are among the most important variables in determining the economic status. Since these variables are unobservable, to estimate them, one needs modern econometric techniques rather than conventional tools. For this reason, this paper uses the Kalman filter tool in the form of a state-space model. Since there are several different specifications for a state-space structure, seven different models are tested by using seasonal data from 1989 to 2014. Results show that only two specifications have suitable estimation results. The first one is a structural model consisting of output and unemployment rate decomposition, plus the relationship between the inflation rate and the output gap in the form of the Phillips curve, and the second is a system that only includes unemployment rate decomposition. The early model can show the periods of inflationary recession between 1992 and 1995, and a severe economic recession during the period of 2010–2013 due to economic sanctions imposed on Iran. The latter model can depict NAIRU gap fluctuations following the inflation fluctuations. In addition to the compatibility of these results with what is observed in reality, the parameters are also statistically significant.

After the financial crisis, studies of uncertainty have been of particular interest to researchers in the past decade. Given the negative impact of uncertainty on the economic growth and development of the country, policymakers seek to control and reduce the uncertainty to improve economic activities. For this purpose, the value of uncertainty must first be assessed. In this study, after the existing methods of calculating uncertainty are expressed, the index of uncertainty is introduced based on an Internet search and its advantages and disadvantages are examined. Given the foreign exchange turbulence in Iran's economy in recent years, the uncertainty indices in the foreign exchange market during the years 2003-2016 are extracted monthly through this procedure. Furthermore, in the next step, GARCH models are used to estimate uncertainty indices in the foreign exchange market for the same period. It has been found through comparison that the Internet search of indices provides a good image of the foreign exchange price variations in the market. In general, policymakers in various areas need to monitor their policy environment, which can be used to measure uncertainty in some of these areas.

The literature has addressed the interaction and dual behaviors of fiscal and monetary policy on the labor market. Generally, if these policies are implemented in the labor market, it is not possible to have a specific outcome. In this study using the dynamic Bayesian models (TVP-FAVAR, TVP-DMA) we try to determine how these policies affect unemployment rate for The quarterly data during the period 1991Q1 - 2018Q4. According to TVP-DMA results, the growth rate of government construction expenditures has been one of the most important factor that affect unemployment rate changes significantly during 92 periods(out of 112 periods). Based on results of TVP-DMA model, fiscal policy such as Current and construction government expenditures and total tax revenues have had a greater impact on the unemployment rate than monetary policies; changes in the monetary base and the amount of liquidity and exchange rates. The result, based on TVP-FAVAR model, reflect that all variables affecting unemployment have positive effect on this variable in the long run. In other words, executive policies have not been able to reduce unemployment. The time inconsistencies in the implementation of policies and lack of development in labor market infrastructure can be considered as reasons for the ineffectiveness of these variables. Clearly, the positive relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth shows phenomenon of stagflation in the country.

In spite of realizing more loss than expected and reserved provision in loaning process, some of our banks avoid recognizing the losses, through extension of the loan contracts and consequently do not shift the realized losses to their capital. With this in mind, the major objective of this study is to design a frame-work, through which we can explain the differences between the results of the current and the legal approaches in banking operation, within the following models: 1- Model CU, which indicates the current practice of banking system in avoiding loss recognition through extension of the loan's contracts. 2- Model BM, which is a benchmark model and in line with the legal rules 3- Model AT, which represents the replacement of predetermined loan rate with a realized one (with close similarity to participation loans), as an alternative method. The analysis of the impulse responses of models, within the DSGE frame-work, shows that considering the legal requirements of the banks, will amplify the effect of the shocks to the real economy and if the loan rates are determined based on the realized return, instead of predetermined rate, the bank's unexpected loan losses will decline, in the face of many negative shocks.

In this paper, we study systemic by using three famous systemic risk measures - MES, ΔCoVaR and SRISK- for Iranian banks that has listed in capital markets and have been active during 2013/5/4 to 2018/9/5. After calculating of these three measures, we have estimated the impact of some characteristics of banks and some macroeconomic variables on these measures. The result of correlation and regression analysis of panel data shows that value-at-risk of banks has positive impact on MES and ΔCoVaR. However, unlike the theatrical literature, we did not find a positive relation between bank size and these systemic risk measures. Therefore, we concluded that small banks has contribution to systemic risk as well as large banks. Furthermore, the impact of capital adequacy and leverage ratio on systemic risk measures was so weak. Finally, we find that improvement in gdp growth decrease the MES and rising the inflation increases the ΔCoVaR.

One of the most important issues in the banking system, which can disrupt the functioning of this system, is risk discourse. Since the volume of credible capital resources reduces bank bankruptcy risk, one of the important indicators for assessing the performance and health of banks is the ratio of capital adequacy.
In this research, after reviewing the theoretical foundations of capital adequacy ratio in conventional banking and explaining the nature of riba free banking (parallel contract model) and the principles governing it, in the first step, by analytical-descriptive method, we have explained the risks of such banking. We examine the role of capital adequacy ratio in its risk management. In the next step, the theoretical findings of the survey are evaluated and validated by experts. The result of the research suggests that the riskiness of a non-risky banking system is typically lower than that of conventional banking, which implies a reduction in the importance of capital adequacy ratio for risk management in such banking compared to conventional banking.

Analyzing the effects of energy and financial sanctions on the output gap of the economy of Iran is the aim of this study. To do so, a New-Keynesian DSGE model is used to design the structure of model. In this approach, by defining a shock, energy and financial sanctions is included into objective functions of the economic agents whereby the behavior of households in subsectors, consumption, capital accumulation and investment spending, and also the behavior of firm in production function and marginal cost are affected by energy and financial sanctions since 2011. The data in this study is quarterly for the period 1989 – 2014. To this end the output gap is computed by Kalman filter approach and other variables are filtered by Hodrick – Prescott method. Then by using Bayesian methods, the structural parameters are estimated, where, the results from MCMC Statistic, Gelman - Brooks statistic and comparing prior and posterior distribution functions indicate that the results are credible. Finally, the effects of energy and financial sanctions on the output gap and other variables have been analyzed by stochastic simulation. The results from simulation reveals that by imposing economic sanctions, investment spending, total consumption and the process of capital accumulation declines and the costs associated with output increased thereby the output gap in economy tends to increase. Moreover, from the results of variance decomposition, investment and inflation rate is more influenced by sanctions than other shocks.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate crude oil swap of Iran with Caspian countries. In crude oil swap contracts, Iran can take two roles: "the Swapper" or "the Buyer and Seller". Also, receiving crude oil from the Caspian countries and delivering equivalent of value of that from the south of Iran can take place simultaneously and non-simultaneously. The datasets contain oil future contract price for period of 1999-2012. Life of swap is assumed to be 5 years. But, it is also increased to 7 years. The results show that It would be more beneficial for Iran to play the role of "the Buyer and Seller" than the role of "the Swapper" in swap contract. Finally, the longer the life of the swap, the higher profitability level will be.
JEL Classification: Q48, Q40, G13, G0

Today, rural migration to urban areas, leads to an aggregate fall in welfare due to lack of infrastructure for integrating the newcomers into urban settings. Not only does it lead to reduction of the welfare of rural migrants and creation of social problems in urban areas, but it also undermines the welfare of rural residents through increasing inequality in rural incomes. In this paper, we apply the combined data (panel) method and use the generalized momentum econometric model (GMM), to analyze panel rural data of 30 provinces of Iran for the period 2005 to 2015 to see how rural migration affects rural inequality.  Our research results show that migration at the beginning increases rural income inequality but that it tends to decrease rural income inequality in subsequent periods.

This research has been done to study and clarify the moral hazards and adverse selection in the capital market and the role of ethics in its reduction. It has methodically worked on the qualitative and interpretative structures and has tried to figure the case descriptively and analytically out according to the qualitative method, using library and internet resources. To create transparency in a capital market, information availability is the most important factor. The clearer the capital market information (symmetric information) is, the more effective will be this market on the economic growth and development. One of the results of information asymmetry is the abuse of the party with more information or, in other words, their moral hazard, in the consequence of which the other party with less information will make an adverse selection. Therefore, compiling rules and ethics charters based on moralities which go with religious and national culture, can reduce the monitoring cost and guarantee the rules execution. These will lead to create trust and honesty in the market and enhance transparency in the capital market.

The aim of this study is the investigation of determinants of size of government in OPEC countries with emphasis on demographic, political-institutional and governance variables. Using a panel data set for 12 OPEC countries during 1996-2014, our findings show that demographic, political-institutional and governance variables influence significantly the size of government in OPEC countries. The political institutional variables such as number of parliamentary seats held by the government and nature of the political system and governance variables such as corruption and government effectiveness are found to have significant effect on the size of government. The results demonstrate that the size of government is larger in autocratic governments compared to democratic ones. The study also finds that corruption significantly impacts size of government.

The aim of the present study was to examine the effect of outcome uncertainty induced by increased competitive balance level on the amount of spectator's attendance in Iran football premier league. Therefore, the amount of spectator's attendance in Iran football premier league was prepared, collected and organized in detail by library sources, the present sources of league organization, federation as well the reliable publications of the club. In addition, the competitive balance was calculated using three applicable standards of C5, SDW and Herfindal for four football leagues of Iran, Japan, China and South Korea. The results indicated that Iran football premier league enjoyed the highest competitive balance level among the above four leagues based on Herfindal standard. In addition, the results obtained from Granger causality test and the comparison of two variables of 'presence' and 'competitive balance level' in Iran football premier league indicated that in addition to the initial effect of competitive balance, increased uncertainty of the outcome of matches (increased level of competitive balance) increased spectator's attendance.

Ethical risk in economics and banking refers to any economic operation in which ethical criteria have been ignored. In order to render our research manageable, we only deal with two ethical concerns that are found to be most basic and prevalent, namely “moral hazard” and “adverse selection”, as they relate to operations of the usury-free banking system in Iran.
The best way to measure ethical risk is to review outcomes of existing procedures. For example we know that ethical risks in banking are reflected in overdue claims of banks. In the present study we thus evaluate the extent of non-performing loans as a measure of ethical risk.
In banking operations, we normally associate adverse selection with misallocation of bank resources, and moral hazard is defined as the borrower not abiding by his contract with the bank regarding how he uses the loan. The latter typically leads to non-performing loans.
Our study discovers the highest degree of ethical risks amongst private banks and the lowest level of ethical risks amongst specialized public sector banks. Among the different facilities provided, interest free loans are found to have the least ethical risk.

Diversification of income sources is a strategic policy application in economics and management. Deal with the diversity makes it possible to access a more stable financial management objectives and its performance. In this paper, the effects of some variables such as fluctuations in GDP, tax diversification index, the share of indirect taxes, the tax to GDP ratio, oil income growth rate, GDP per capita, the share of agriculture value added, Gini coefficient on government tax income fluctuations are examined by using ARDL regression model.The results of estimating the regression model show that tax structure and the structure of the economy are important to bring stability for the combination of government tax revenue. In addition the tax structure and tax consequences affects on performance.

In Iran, taxes have a very minuscule share in government budget. The situation is very upsetting and it has very harmful consequences for the Iranian economy; for example sudden decrease in the government means as a result of the oil prices slump and embargoes which lead to a downturn in public services and public welfare, government borrowing from the central bank in order to pay for the deficit and very high and constant inflations which their burden are borne by the low income social groups and many other economic ailments. The question concerns how to increase the government’s tax revenues? In this study, we have tried to look at the importance of the issues regarding tax administration and also given the asymmetric information as to the income tax, and in order to prevent tax evasion phenomenon (and to increase government’s tax revenues without extending tax bases and increasing tax rates), to introduce a certain auditing mechanism and attempt to analyze it in a theoretical and experimental manner. We have made use of game theory and field study for that end.

Efforts to develop comprehensive policies to promote community economic, social, political, cultural and etc development; need to examine the effects of inflation as one of the most important problems of developing countries in all aspects of life including social issues such as crime the annual fee noticed that a lot of people and communities be considered. Thus, after the theoretical expression, inflation swelling associated with the crime will be dealt with using a panel data model when the various levels (short and long term) of the experimental and at the provincial level will be dealt with over the years 1997-2012 and effectiveness of these variables on a variety of crimes including property crimes and violent crimes, along with other important variables. The results show that inflation is always significant and positive in the long term and short-term effect on crime types and drawing comparisons suggest that the effect of inflation on crime is even more than the effect of unemployment on crime.

In this paper, a model based on GMDH Type Neural Network, is used to predict gas price in the spot market while using oil spot market price, gas spot market price, gas future market price, oil future market price and average temperature of the weather. The results suggest that GMDH Neural Network model, according to the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Direction statistics (Dstat) statistics are more effective than OLS method. Also, first lag of gas price in the future market is the most efficient variable in predicting gas price in spot market.

Natural gas because of its advantages plays a key role in economy of Iran. Given the continuously rising natural gas consumption, planning in the gas sector by taking into account predicted demand is critical for ensuring sustainable development. In this study we develop models for predicting natural gas demand in residential-commercial, industrial and power plant sectors in Iran using ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and Neural Network GMDH(Group Method of Data Handling) approaches. The time series data of natural gas demand, natural gas price and air temperature are used as the model variables. the RMSE, MSE and Prediction Error Percentage indexes are used for comparing this models. The prediction accuracy percentage index for residential-commercial, industrial and power plant sectors in ARIMA method are 93.8, 98.3 and 87 percent and those in Network GMDH method are 96.4, 99 and 98.2 percent respectively. The results indicate better performance and accuracy for the GMDH approach compared to the ARIMA model in predicting natural gas demand.

Using a choice experiment survey، the marginal willingness to pay (WTP) among Iranian households to avoid power outages is estimated. The results indicate that households prefer lower price of alternatives and the low duration and frequency of outages، and the factors of outage day، outage time and warning in advance of outage are important to households'' preferences. Moreover، the conditional logit model with interaction effects of SED variables allows us to explain the unobserved heterogeneity of preferences. The results of this model show that the marginal WTP increases with increasing of household’s expenditure، age of respondent and electricity consumption in the last period. Given that households have negative welfare effects from outages، it is important that policy makers consider these negative impacts on household utility when deciding about reliability of electricity network.