فهرست مطالب hossein moslemi

 Wetlands are habitats for vegetation and wildlife and because of this, they have a high environmental value. Also, wetlands reduce soil erosion, restore aquifers, store rainwater in a flood event, and provide water for agriculture or livestock. Wetlands are vulnerable to human interventions and changes such as drainage, urban sprawl, infrastructure development, and over-exploitation of groundwater resources. Prediction of the condition of wetlands in the future requires a correct understanding of the evolution of wetlands and identifying their trend of change. Nowadays, Remote Sensing technology is widely used for mapping wetlands, and its ability to monitor the changes in wetlands regardless of the diversity of wetlands has significantly increased the value of this science in this field. Remote Sensing can be an effective means of simulating and predicting wetland degradation processes by providing images at different times and through dynamic spatial modeling. In this study, the changes in the Bakhtegan wetland have been monitored. This wetland has high environmental and tourism importance and its drying affects negatively the living conditions and health of local people as well as tourism in the region. In addition, predictions of precipitation parameters, groundwater level, and temperature have been conducted. For this purpose, the Google Earth Engine platform was used to capture and process images. Google Earth Engine is a platform that can capture and process images in the shortest time and at high speed. In this regard, using Google Earth Engine, changes in the lake water area along with changes in temperature, groundwater level, and precipitation were extracted and monitored. Moreover, a comparison took place between these parameters to determine the changes that have taken place in the lake over the past two decades. To predict the parameters, the changing pattern was predicted and analyzed using the Prophet model. The most important advantage of the Prophet model is its ability to convert discrete data to continuous data to make the best predictions. This method automatically detects the trend of seasonal data and displays the trend of seasonal changes.

 Satellite images were acquired from the Google Earth Engine platform to monitor the wetland. Landsat 7 and 8 images were used for water body extraction, GRACE Data were used for extraction of groundwater level changes, MODIS product was used for extraction of vegetation and wetland surface temperature, and TRMM image product was used to extract precipitation values. An automated water extraction index was used to extract the wetland body water. The groundwater level was extracted from the GRACE sensor. MODIS sensor product was used to obtain the surface temperature time series for the study area. For the extraction of precipitation time series, the monthly cumulative data of the TRMM (3B43V7) satellite with a spatial resolution of 0.25°C was extracted using Google Earth Engine and the trend of changes was evaluated and analyzed. The Mann-Kendall test is one of the most widely used non-parametric tests for detecting meteorological and environmental data trends, which is used to detect a monotonic trend line since this test is a non-parametric method, it does not need that the data follow a normal distribution. The Prophet predictive model is a predictive library developed by Facebook and is available in R and Python programming languages. This library supports additive modeling methods and can properly predict discrete values continuously. This feature is called "Holiday". Another feature of this library is the automatic detection of daily, weekly, seasonal and annual trends. The mean absolute error (MAE), by default, exists in the Prophet library. This error represents a more natural standard than the mean error and unlike the RMSE error, it is unambiguous.

 In the present study, we monitored the Bakhtegan wetland using the Google Earth Engine platform to observe the trend of water level changes in this wetland from 2000 to 2020. In addition, Parameters were also predicted using the Prophet Prediction method which is developed and published by Facebook. By examining this trend, it can be observed that the water level of the wetland has been significantly reduced during two decades. In this regard, the trend of groundwater level, temperature, and precipitation in the area was investigated. Examining these factors, it was found that along with a 58.3% decrease in the water level of the wetland, there was a 260% decrease in the groundwater level of the region, although the amount of rainfall in the region has been less compared to other factors and has been decreased about 29%. Using Mann-Kendall statistical test, the trend of this decline was proved. To predict the parameters, the Prophet model has been able to make predictions for 1500 days as continuous data using discrete data. The output of the model has shown that for rainfall parameters and groundwater level a downward trend is predictable over the next 1500 days which is low intensity for precipitation but with high intensity for groundwater level. Temperature prediction indicated that it has a seasonal trend, and has a high amount of fluctuation within a year, but its annual trend indicates stability in the coming years. The results of the model for the water level of the wetland also show a relatively low upward trend that has a probability of change of ±12.5 Square kilometers. Also, the error of the parameters at the 95% significant level has acceptable accuracy, which indicates the validity of the prediction. An automated water extraction index was used in this study to extract the time series of the water body of the wetland. Using the mean time series extracted, the maximum and minimum wetland’s water body area belongs to 2006 with 629.23 square kilometers and 2014 with 156.82 square kilometers, respectively. The time series of changes in this wetland indicates that the water volume of the wetland has been declining in the last two decades. According to this study, it can be concluded that the trend of changes in the water level of the wetland has been decreasing. The descending changes in the lake based on the trend of changes in groundwater levels indicates a decrease in water volume in the area. Considering that the trend of precipitation changes has been stable, it can have assumed that improper management and excessive use of groundwater may be a reason for lowering the water level of the wetland. Due to the same decrease in the water level of the lake, the temperature has also decreased by about 3°C.

 According to this study, it can be concluded that groundwater levels and precipitation will have a downward trend in the future, which will lead to a decrease in the water level of the wetland, which itself has the potential to fluctuate in the future, and the downward trend continues. With the current trend, the only solution is to plan properly to preserve the wetland. If this trend continues, we will face the destruction of the wetland. Given the monthly trend of the wetland surface, it is suggested not to over-exploit groundwater resources, especially in the summer. For further research, the Google Earth Engine platform can be used without the need to download the images and spend a lot of time and money, to obtain the time series of images. Regarding the prediction, in future studies, the Prophet model can be applied, since it uses discrete data and at the same time provides the desired accuracy.

From a military point of view, cyber power is perhaps the most important emerging tool of the past few decades. Currently, most of the armed forces of the countries are preparing to secure their cyber and cyber borders against such a new development. New military manuals are compiled based on cyberspace. In all levels of conflict, from internal rebellions to conventional war, cyber power is an inevitable factor of military capabilities, this capability is formed on the basis of modern technologies. Cyber ​​centers are an important organization in the military structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, and the results of its performance will play a vital role in the performance and efficiency of the army. Therefore, determining their performance based on new strategies is one of the important duties of the supreme commanders of the armed forces. This research was done with the aim of presenting the cyber power strategies of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army. This research is based on an analytical-descriptive method and the use of available resources in the field of cyber power, as well as a comprehensive review using the SWOT analysis method to determine the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, and further based on the opinion of experts and The interviewees determined the weight of each option and 15 strategies were determined as the most important cyber power strategies of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army.

Institutional trust in public security agents has always been one of the sources of soft power and regulatory “social capital” in the Islamic Republic of Iran which includes a set of positive attitudes towards its policies, functions, and agents. People’s trust in public security agents is closely related to most political and social variables so that its positive developments can improve the relationship between public security agents and people in maintaining order and security. Therefore, the present study aims to improve the relationship between public security agents and people by drawing a picture of trust in public security agents. Accordingly, the research examines the institutional trust of Zanjan people in public security agents and explores what factors affect the trust of Zanjan people in public security agents. This research has been carried out through a descriptive-analytical approach using the survey method and the data were collected from the questionnaires filled out by 455 citizens of Zanjan. The research findings were analyzed by SPSS software and analysis of variance and mean difference, correlation, and regression tests. The findings show that the average trust of Zanjan people in public security agents is 75%. Institutional trust in public security agents varied depending on the contextual factors. Women and married people have higher trust in public security agents than men and singles. Also, people in the age group of “46 and older” and people with lower levels of education have higher trust in public security agents. Among the factors affecting the dependent variable, two factors, i.e. sense of security and performance of departments and institutions, had 0.44% and 0.6% direct correlation with institutional trust in public security agents, respectively, and totally explain about 50% of its variations.

Social capital has been important for public opinion theorists and public fguresdue to their ineffective and negative effects on society and other social structures,and its continuous and permanent observation, including the necessities ofevery political system Which should serve the needs of the macro and strategicmanagement of society.For this reason, the present research question is how much social capitalcontributes to the production of a sense of security.To answer this fundamental question, the number of 176 people over 16 years ofage from Zanjan's three regions was selected by relativistic method and in terms ofthe population of the city through a multistage cluster under the supervision of oneof the national research institutes of the country and in accordance with the BlockMap The city of questionnaires was completed.Research fndings showed that there is no difference between social capital interms of gender and the structure of social capital combined with the variables ofhope for the future, trust, vitality in life and life satisfaction, with a sense of securitystructure with a correlation of 0/5 is.Also, the regression analysis of social capital with three variables of hope for thefuture, trust and vitality in life explained about 33% of changes in sense of security

Strategy and its analytical structure in the discourse of the Islamic revolution, which has been invoked in the national decisions of the country, is on the one hand, its source, the ideals, and values and the transcendent goals of constitutionalism, and on the other hand, looks at the facts, problems an obstacles. Any strategy orientation without these two orientations is delusional and imaginative. This analytical structure forms a conceptual framework that combines the intrinsic and developmental nature of an effective and future-oriented approach, the components of ideation, the opportunity, the critical success factors, and path finding in interaction within themselves. The present study, with a descriptive-analytical approach and the method of discourse analysis in the intellectual system of the Supreme Leader, as the discourse of the Islamic Revolution, shows the strategy in the discourse of revolution, based on the divine-value paradigm that in the dimension of idea making of component “systematic thinking\intellectual think” introduces a model of solving the problems. In the analysis of bottleneck, the critical success factors, due to the combination of key bottleneck and key competencies, recommends the component of internalization and firmness as the key competencies for the removal of barriers. Finally, in terms of tracking, because of foresight approach, the component of the principle of creative breakdown is pursed in order to emerge divine and human rules that are consistent with internal capabilities.