jafar haghighat

External financing is one of the most important sources of investment, especially in developing countries. External financing for both countries (lender and borrower) has opportunities and challenges that the analysis of which requires statistical and econometric studies. The purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of foreign financing among selected countries (including; Iran، Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Russia ,Brazil, China and India) by the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) during the period 1995-2020. The contribution of this paper is overcoming the uncertainty of choosing the optimal model and simultaneously modeling all the variables affecting external financing by BMA estimator and extracting the optimal model. According to the results and estimating 4096 different models with 12 explanatory variables (and controlling country-specific fixed effects), the 8 important determinints of foreign financing are: unemployment rate، inflation rate, degree of trade openness, Government effectiveness, political stability, exchange rate, economic growth and gross capital formation index. Also for the Iranian economy, the country-specific fixed effect has a negative coefficient, which indicates the negative effect of financial and banking sanctions that have reduced foreign debt to the Iranian government and Iranian companies. The most important policy recommendations of this research for policy makers and executive managers have been discussed.
 

Environmental quality is influenced by various factors, one of the significant factors is monetary and financial policies. Therefore, the present study deals with the effects of monetary and financial policies on environmental pollutants in Iran using a non-linear approach during the years 1980-2020. The results of the study show that in the short term of carbon dioxide emission in the previous period, the economic growth rate, the legal reserve rate and the ratio of taxes to GDP have a positive effect on the emission of environmental pollutants, and government spending has a negative effect on carbon dioxide emission. It has carbon. Non-linear effects of carbon dioxide emissions in the previous period, positive economic growth rate shock, positive economic growth rate shock in the previous period, negative economic growth rate shock in the previous period, positive government expenditure shock, negative government expenditure shock, negative legal reserve rate shock, The positive shock of the ratio of taxes to GDP and the negative shock of the ratio of taxes to GDP had a positive effect on carbon dioxide emissions, and the negative shock of government spending in the previous period and the negative shock of the legal reserve rate had a negative effect on carbon dioxide emissions in the short term. Is. In the long term, the emission of carbon dioxide pollutant in the previous period, the negative shock of the government expenditure in the previous period and the positive shock of the legal reserve rate had a negative effect on the emission of carbon dioxide, and the positive shock of the economic growth rate of the previous period, the negative shock of the economic growth rate, the negative shock of the rate Legal reserves, the positive shock of the ratio of taxes to GDP and the negative shock of the ratio of taxes to GDP have had a positive effect on the emission of carbon dioxide.

Monetary policy, as one of the most important economic tools that affects various economic variables through different channels and with different speed and intensity, has always been the attention of the responsible authorities of countries, especially developing countries like Iran. On the other hand, banks, as financial and credit institutions that have a special place in the country's economy, play a decisive role in the circulation of money and society's wealth. Therefore, examining the impact of monetary policy shocks on the health of Iran's banking system, which is done through the exchange rate channel, is particularly important and is the main goal of this research. Therefore, by using 96 variables of seasonal time series data affecting the bank's profitability index, which is one of the most important indicators of measuring and judging the health of the banking system during the period of 1401:4-1378:1 and using the experimental model of the factor- Added (FAVAR), we investigate the effect of monetary policy through the exchange rate channel on the health of the banking system in Iran. The results show the direct effect of monetary policy through the exchange rate channel on the growth rate of bank network deposits and consequently the power to grant facilities, the amount of bank operating income and the growth rate of bank claims, which from this point of view is one of the most important indicators of the health of the system. A bank that has a profitability index has a negative and significant effect. On the other hand, the effect of monetary policy shocks through the exchange rate channel on the amount of deposit attraction (current, short-term, long-term Rial and foreign currency deposits) and the amount of power to grant facilities and the bank's operating income (income from granting facilities, income from of foreign exchange) is negative and significant and has a positive and significant effect on the amount of claims in the bank.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:

Anzwaini et al. (2012) conducted a study aimed at the impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices. Global monetary conditions are often cited as a driver of commodity prices. This paper examines the empirical relationship between US monetary policy and commodity prices using a standard VAR system, which is commonly used in analyzing the effects of monetary policy shocks.Jordo et al. (2019) conducted a study with the aim of whether SVARs identify unconventional monetary policy shocks? they did. We show that the used identification schemes have not been able to recover real unconventional monetary policy shocks in theEurozone. In their identification schemes, information on the size of the central bank's balance sheet is key to distinguishing monetary policy shocks from other shocks that reduce financial market stress.Niazi Mohseni et al. (2019) conducted a study with the aim of investigating the effect of monetary policy shocks and oil revenues on inflation and economic growth in Iran. In this study, the data of the explained variables were used for the period of 1357 to 1397. Data analysis was done using STATA software. The results of this study showed that the increase in the bank interest rate has reduced the economic growth rate for at least two years after the application of the shock, and after that the effect of the shock tends to zero.Asefi et al. (2021) conducted a study on the effect of monetary policy through the asset price channel on financial development. In this study, using seasonal time series data of 110 economic variables in the period of 1370-1390 and self-explanatory model A generalized factor (FAVAR), the impact of monetary policies has been evaluated through the channel of housing and stock prices. The results of the impulse response functions indicate that the housing price channel has increased production in the medium and long term, but it has also had significant inflationary effects in the short and medium term.

FAVAR model introduced by Bernanke et al. (2005) is a combination of VAR model and factor analysis model. Composite dynamics (Yt, Ft) should be assumed as equation 1.According to the statistical limitations in Iran, the time period investigated in this data research will be the years 2012-2021 and the research variables include three categories:Table 1: Introduction of Xt vector variables, Yt vector exogenous variables and F vector hidden factors Brief description of the variable. Brief description of the variable Government claims to the bank Dig exchange rate EXC Claims of other banks and financial institutions to the bank Dib Income from granting facilities Inl Income from currency exchange Bc Other variables as hidden factors The equation can be written as follows using model variables: 

The results obtained from the findings show that the monetary policy through the exchange rate channel has led to a direct effect on the deposits of the banking network and as a result the power to grant facilities and the amount of non-current bank claims which as a result It has an impact on one of the most important indicators of the health of the banking system, which is the profitability index, and this impact is negative and significant. Also, the effect of monetary policy shocks through the exchange rate channel on the amount of deposit attraction (current, short-term, long-term Rial and foreign currency deposits) and the amount of power to grant facilities and the bank's operating income (income from granting facilities, income from of foreign exchange) is negative and significant and has a positive and significant effect on the number of claims in the bank.

 CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS:

Considering the importance of the banking sector, in this study, using the FAVAR model, the impact of monetary policy shocks through the exchange rate channel on the health of the banking system of Iran during the years 2012-2021 was investigated.At the beginning, the unit root test was used to measure the significance of the variables using Stata software, and all the variables were at the significance level.In the following, with the help of Schwarz-Baysin, Akaik and Hanan-Quinn criteria, as well as the maximum likelihood statistic, the optimal interval is determined, and since these criteria do not yield the same results, the AIC criterion is used to determine the optimal interval length. and the obtained optimal interval length is specified as one. According to the obtained results, using the FAVAR model is very suitable for measuring the relationships between variables. The results of the model estimation results show that the monetary policy through the exchange rate channel has led to a direct effect on the deposits of the banking network and consequently the power to grant facilities and the amount of non-current bank claims, which is one of the most important the health indicators of the banking system, which is the profitability index, are effective. For this reason, fluctuations caused by monetary policy shocks in the exchange rate, as one of the most important factors affecting the health of the banking system, will have a negative and significant impact.Also, the effect of monetary policy shocks through the exchange rate channel on the amount of deposit attraction (current, short-term, long-term Rial and foreign currency deposits) and the amount of power to grant facilities and the bank's operating income (income from granting facilities, income from of foreign exchange) is negative and significant and has a positive and significant effect on the number of claims in the bank

One of the most important topics in the capital market is understanding the level of risk, which can affect the return on company stocks and play a significant role in decision-making. In this regard, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) has been introduced and attracted the attention of researchers. These models are influenced by various internal company factors and macroeconomic variables. However, one variable that has a close relationship with financial markets is blockchain technology. Therefore, this study examines the impact of blockchain technology on overall risk volatility in 84 selected companies listed on the country's stock exchange from April 2011 to August 2021, using a system generalized method of moments (GMM) approach. The study results show that the spillover effects of market value, blockchain technology, economic growth, exchange rates, and oil prices on overall risk are positive, while the effects of return on assets, financial companies, research and development costs, and inflation rates on overall risk are negative.

The present study aimed to explore the impact of banking crisis on income distribution among various income classes in 60 world countries during 1990–2020. In this line, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) was used to estimate the six models with different dependent variables that depicted income percentiles for the wealthy, middle, and poor classes. The findings indicated that during a banking crisis, the income share of the wealthy class decreases, while the middle class and the bottom 20% experience an increase in their income share. Consequently, banking crisis could contribute to income equality in the countries under study. In addition to the variable of banking crisis, other variables such as financial development and financial openness could lead to income inequality, while the variables like the ratio of public expenditure to GDP, trade openness, GDP, and GDP squared would cause income distribution equality in the countries. The results suggest that governments support lower-income percentiles through subsidies, support packages, more job opportunities, and provision of low-interest loans, in a bid to mitigate the detrimental effects of banking crisis and reduce income inequality. Furthermore, governments should levy taxes, such as capital gains tax, on higher-income percentiles.

Determining the factors affecting stock market turmoil and risk with the development of capital asset pricing models has been considered by researchers. One of the variables that is closely related to financial markets is blockchain technology. Blockchain is a new technology in the field of secure computers. This technology can transform the digital world and, using distributed distribution features for each online transaction, execute transactions in such a way that assets can be identified in the future without compromising the privacy, security of assets and parties involved. It is done in the transaction. the present study investigates the blockchain technology overflow on the fluctuations of fluctuations of 84 selected companies in the stock market of the country during April 2011 to August 2021 using system generalized method of moments. The Iranian stock market has not been immune from the spillovers of this crisis. The results of the study show that market share, rate of return on assets have a positive effect on the spillower of fluctuations and blockchain technology, research and development have negative effects on spillover. All variables are statistically significant at the level of one percent confidence. Determining the factors affecting stock market turmoil and risk with the development of capital asset pricing models has been considered by researchers. One of the variables that is closely related to financial markets is blockchain technology. Blockchain is a new technology in the field of secure computers. This technology can transform the digital world and, using distributed distribution features for each online transaction, execute transactions in such a way that assets can be identified in the future without compromising the privacy, security of assets and parties involved. It is done in the transaction. the present study investigates the blockchain technology overflow on the fluctuations of fluctuations of 84 selected companies in the stock market of the country during April 2011 to August 2021 using system generalized method of moments. The Iranian stock market has not been immune from the spillovers of this crisis. The results of the study show that market share, rate of return on assets have a positive effect on the spillower of fluctuations and blockchain technology, research and development have negative effects on spillover. All variables are statistically significant at the level of one percent confidence.

The present research aimed to investigate the relationship between Iran’s stock price index and nine macroeconomic variables during 1996–2019. Three methods were employed to reduce uncertainty, namely three Bayesian averaging methods (BMA, BMS, BAS), weighted average least squares (WALS), and Vselect. The experimental results of the Bayesian methods and WALS showed that the exchange rate and the consumer price index are the most important variables among the nine macroeconomic variables considered in the model. Moreover, the results revealed that the exchange rate has a minor impact on the stock price index, while the stock price index exerts a substantial effect on the exchange rate. The findings of Vselect validated the conclusion that these two variables are the primary drivers of stock price estimation and are present in nearly all predictive modelsIntroductionThe harmonization of financial markets with the macroeconomic sector is crucial for stabilizing the economy and achieving the adopted policies. In recent years, several significant studies have been conducted on financial markets, particularly the stock market, highlighting their pivotal role in allocating capital resources efficiently in advanced economies. Empirical evidence supports the view that financial markets have evolved in tandem with all sectors of the economy. Therefore, it can be argued that financial markets constitute one of the most vital components of any country’s economy. Throughout history, major economic crises have resulted from the collapse of financial markets, which underscores their critical significance. The financial market comprises several components, with the stock market being a crucial part. Economists view it as a barometer of a country’s economic health due to its ability to reflect macroeconomic asset prices more accurately than other markets. The uncertainty surrounding stock prices in stock markets is a significant aspect of the entire economy, capable of generating and disrupting unsustainable growth. For investors, the risk of participating in an investment is a crucial consideration. To comprehend total risk, it is beneficial to examine two aspects: systematic and non-systematic risk.The present study aimed to examine the impact of economic factors on stock market prices in Iran with the high degree of risk involved. There is a consensus among economists that asset prices are responsive to economic news, and that stock prices and economic factors are strongly interconnected. Thus, this research investigated the potential impact of macroeconomic factors on the Iranian stock price index from 1996 to 2019 using Bayesian averaging methods, followed by an analysis of the effect size of each variable through the weighted average least square method (WALS).Materials and MethodsResearchers often draw conclusions based on the assumptions of their selected model, assuming that it can accurately predict real-world situations. However, this approach may overlook true uncertainty, leading to non-conservative conclusions. Statistical models comprise two parts: variables and assumptions, and the model selected based on these assumptions to estimate the variables. Uncertainty exists at both levels. For instance, a researcher estimating the impact of influential factors on an independent variable may choose a model based on their assumptions and report their estimates. But is this the best answer? Another researcher with different assumptions may opt for a different model with lower variance and error. In other words, numerous models may fit the sample data equally well but with different coefficient estimates and standard errors. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a robust method that aims to remove uncertainty. It assesses the robustness of results to alternative specifications by computing posterior distributions for coefficients and models. This study employed three models of BMA, BMS, and BAS, using various averaging methods to verify the reliability of the results. Moreover, two non-Bayesian methods, namely WALS and Vselect, were used to select the best variables for predicting the optimal models.ConclusionThis study tried to investigate the relationship between Iran’s stock market index and nine macroeconomic variables during 1996–2019 by using the models that identify and limit uncertainty. The models selected include three Bayesian averaging models as well as WALS and Vselect which were used to verify the results obtained. The results indicated that only two variables, the exchange rate and consumer price index, are statistically significant when assuming a uniform distribution of the prior distribution function, which is the assumption of the BMS method. The remaining variables are not statistically significant. Furthermore, the estimates derived from the BMA and BAS models were quite similar, with the exception of less important variables. However, the similarity decreased in the BAS method. Moreover, WALS and Vselect confirmed the results obtained from all the three methods.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the shock spillover of parallel markets in stock market fluctuations; in OPEC member countries. For this purpose, the information of the 2010-2020 period and the vector error correction model have been usedThe mid-term results show: the volatility spillover function first decreases and then increases with the increase in oil prices, and also with the increase in the economic growth rate, it remains unchanged and also with the exchange rate shock, it improves first with a moderate slope and then with a gentle slope. Based on the results of variance analysis, the changes in the fluctuation overflow and then the oil price have the most impact compared to other variables in the fluctuation overflow function. Based on the long-term results the volatility spillover function did not react much to changes in oil prices, and it also did not change to changes in the economic growth rate, first with a high slope and then with a gentle increase, as well as with the shock of the exchange rate. Also, based on the results of variance analysis, volatility spillover has a very high sensitivity to the volatility spillover itself and then economic growth.

Determining the factors affecting the volatility and risk of the stock market by expanding the pricing models of capital assets has been the focus of researchers. One of the variables that has a close relationship with financial markets is block chain technology. Therefore, the present study investigated the effect of block chain technology on total and systematic risk volatility in 84 selected companies of the Iran`s stock market during April 2010 to August 2014 using Vector error correction model. The results of the study show that the systematic risk function in the first period has a positive reaction to the changes in blockchain technology, but after the second period, the impact of blockchain technology shocks on the systematic risk of companies has been positive with a constant slope. Also, since the first period, the total risk function has had a positive reaction to the changes in blockchain technology with an upward slope. Systematic risk and total risk functions have also reacted positively to the shocks of the companies' market share and the company's rate of return. The results of the variance analysis of the total risk and systematic risk functions show that in the systematic risk function, according to the asset return rate, blockchain technology and market share had the greatest effect on the changes in the risk function, and in the risk function, according to the market share, asset return rate and Block chain technology has had the greatest effect on the changes of the mentioned risk function.

In order to implement a successful monetary policy, monetary authorities must have a correct assessment of the time and extent of the impacts of this policy on economic variables in different conditions. In this article, using the quarterly data of Iran's Central Bank, the contribution of different channels of monetary policy effects on the production of manufacturing sector and the general level of prices in the period of 1994-2008 will be determined. For this purpose, while using the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Method (MSVAR), two endogenous and exogenous models are estimated under two regimes of zero and one. Considering Iran's Bank based financing system, it is expected that the credit channel will play an active role in transferring money to the production sector. The results of this research confirmed the effect of monetary policy on production and inflation through the credit channel in both regimes. Also, the results confirm that currency rate and housing channels have been effective in transferring the effect of monetary policies to production and the general level of prices. Considering the high cost of housing rent in Iran, it was found that housing price fluctuations in the regime zero have more inflationary effects than in the regime one. Compared to other channels, the stock price channel has had less impact on the transmission of monetary policies on the level of production and inflation. According to the above results, it is necessary to pay more attention to currency stability, and in addition, pay more attention to the capital market as a suitable tool for directing resources to productive activities.

Monetary and credit policies, however, are widely accepted by economists and policymakers as a means of stabilizing the real sector of the economy and achieving sustainable economic growth. However, macroeconomic shocks, in turn, affect the stability of the banking system and real sectors of the economy, including the housing market. Therefore, the study of the impact of macroeconomic shocks on the stability of the banking system and the housing market, requires evaluation and analysis of these channels in the mechanism of shock transmission. Therefore, the present article evaluates the impact of macroeconomic shocks in Iran on banking stability and the housing market with the FAVAR approach during the period 1991-1400. The results show that, in terms of the period of impact, the capital market channel and exchange rate with a deviation of limits and the capital market channel with 0.4. Percentage deviation from the mean of the minimum and maximum effect, respectively, and in terms of the duration of the effect, the housing channel and the banking channel act almost similarly.

Purpose of the present study is to estimate the fiscal illusion index, using Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model, using longitudinal data during the period of 2001 to 2021, for 31 provinces of Iran country. The results indicate that the most important causal variables of fiscal illusion index are educational costs and tax burden (with a negative effect) and economic participation rate (with a positive effect), and the most important indicators of fiscal illusion were Herfindahl index (with a negative coefficient), budget deficit, inflation rate, indirect tax ratio, real effective exchange rate and Oil revenue (with a positive coefficient) (and all are statistically significant). Also, the results showed that the average value of the estimated fiscal illusion index, among of the provinces, the lowest average value belongs to Khorasan Shomali and the highest value belongs to Khozestan province. Furthermore, the lowest average value of fiscal illusion index in the country level belongs to 2001 & 2002 and the highest is in 2021.

Discovering the key sectors of the economy, according to the capacities and talents of each region, has always been considered by economists, something that is interpreted as comparative advantage in the economic literature. In the current research, investment ranking is determined by using the data-output table and measuring the effectiveness of the back and front links of different sectors. For this purpose, by using the data-output table of 2016 (updated from the 2016 table of Iran Statistics Center) and the new methods of determining key sectors, the priority of investment in the country was identified. The hypothetical elimination method showed that the sectors of agriculture and horticulture, manufacturing of food products and manufacturing of chemical materials and products have the highest posterior and anterior links and are of higher importance. In the following, by using the field of influence method, it was determined that the manufacturing of food products with the value of 252/6416 has the largest field of influence and is a priority for investment, and more investment in this sector will cause more growth in production. After that, the manufacturing sector of chemical materials and products with the value of 169/4262 is in the second priority and then the agriculture and horticulture sector is the third priority of investment with the value of 150/8038, so it is recommended to use the potentials and capacity. In the economic sectors, food products and education should be invested as a key sector, and then, considering the relative advantage of the agriculture and horticulture sector, investment in this sector is also inevitable.

The main purpose of this study is to identify the determinants of banking crisis loss, the variables of policy framework especially, for 12 sample countries over the period 1980-2019. Accordingly, we extracted pre-crisis and post-crisis trends from countries' real GDPs and then calculated output loss for the crisis year and three years afterwards. In the following, we used the Poisson quasi-maximum likelihood (PPML) method to estimate basic model and model by considering the variables related to the policy framework. Our findings of basic model show the variables of real per capita GDP, inflation, bank credit to GDP ratio, have a significant positive effect and variables of financial openness and discretionary government spending have a significant negative effect on output loss related to banking crisis. Also, our analysis of different models with the presence variables of fiscal rules, exchange rate regimes, central bank independence and conservatism reveals that using of more flexible policies instead of extremely restrictive policy frameworks, such as having a balanced budget, a soft peg regime (intermediate exchange regime) and a central bank with less degree of independence and conservatism, are suitable for managing and reducing output loss related to banking crisis.

The aim of this paper is examining appropriate structures in order to achieve the objectives of monetary and fiscal policy in the Iranian economy. The behavior of monetary and fiscal policymakers was derived using dynamic optimization and game theory techniques trough defining objective functions and policy makers’ constraints under two basic policy making approaches: commitment and discretionary. findings showed that,Regardless of committed or discretionary policymaking approach, fiscal policy has procyclical behavio. findings showed that, the hypothesis that oil revenues are only reason of fiscal dominance in Iranian economy is rejected and policy maker s commitment is necessary condition and fiscal discipline is sufficient condition for independence of monetary policy.

The aim of this study is to estimate the known statistical characteristics of nominal price stickiness in the Iranian economy during the years 1390 to 1399 and at different commodity levels of microdata of consumer price index (including product category, Coicop commodity group, and the whole economy) and thus the stickiness between categories and product groups are also compared. For this purpose, 421 categories have been selected as a sample from the database of the Consumer Price Index Statistics Plan of the Statistics Center of Iran. This sample is about 93% of the number of consumer basket items in the base year 95 and 67% of consumer expenditures in the base year 90 covers. In this study, the nominal price stickiness index is estimated via the duration and frequency approaches. According to the results, this index is estimated at 29% based on frequency approaches in the whole economy and about 2.99 months based on the Duration approaches, which is less than in developed countries. Also, the comparison of indicators at the level of items and Coicop groups shows the existence of heterogeneity in the stickiness of nominal prices. The group of food and beverages and group of housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels have the lowest, and the group of communication and education have the highest price stickiness.

The purpose of this study is to Prediction the possibility of a banking crisis in a dynamic early warning system framework. We using data compiled from 10 middle-income countries for the period 1996-2017 and estimate static and dynamic logit model. The estimation results show that the dynamic logit model is better than the static model. We find that broad liquidity ratio, domestic credit to GDP ratio and stock market index are early warning signs of banking crisis. Also, the dynamic variable (lagged banking crisis) shows that if a banking crisis occurs in a year ago, there is a possibility of crisis in this year. Our result shows the possibility of continuation and persistence of banking crises for consecutive years. Then, the evaluation results of warning system show dynamic early warning system turns out to exhibit significantly better predictive abilities than the existing static one, both in- and out-of-sample.

The present study represents an attempt to examine the main macro determinants of stock prices in OPEC oil exporting and importing countries in the study period 1996 to 2016 using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The oil importers in this study are the United States, Britain and Japan, and three countries, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, have been selected as oil exporters. The findings of this study are that to predict and evaluate the stock price index for oil-importing countries, the three variables of exchange rate index, consumer price index and economic growth should be given more importance than other variables, while for oil-exporting countries, The three variables of broad money growth, exchange rate and import are the most important variables that should be considered. For oil-importing countries, among the macro variables studied, OPEC oil prices have a completely negative relationship with the stock price index of those countries, but in oil-importing countries, the gold price has a completely inverse relationship with the stock price index.

In the present study, in the first stage, using Gerton and Roper (1977) model, the central bank policy intervention index and foreign exchange market pressure were calculated. Then, using the STAR regression model, the nonlinear effects of financial risks with policy intervention of the central bank and the pressure of the foreign exchange market on the country's banking stability are examined. According to the results of Gerton and Roper models; In 26 of the 33 years surveyed, the country's economy has faced increasing pressure from the foreign exchange market. Also, the average degree of central bank intervention is 0.79. In other words, in the period between 1986 and 1397, 79% of the central bank intervention policy was inconsistent. The results of STAR model estimation with the central bank intervention as a transition variable show that the threshold value of the transition variable is 6.55 and with the central bank intervention exceeding this threshold, the reaction of monetary officials to increase this variable has increased sharply. As the central bank's intervention has increased, policymakers have tried to control the growth of the exchange rate and prevent it from rising by reacting more. Therefore, when the exchange rate experiences higher growth, policymakers are more in control of the exchange rate and pay less attention to its deviations, which increases the liquidity and credit risk of banks and leads to a decrease in the country's banking stability. According to the estimation results, the variables of capital adequacy and economic growth have a positive effect and central bank intervention, liquidity risk, credit risk and inflation rate also have a negative effect on bank stability. The negative coefficient of the intervention index indicate that the central bank, in the face of increasing positive exchange rate deviations, is pursuing a decline in the growth of its foreign reserves. Therefore, expansionary monetary policies need to be adjusted for the stabilization or non-stabilization of the exchange rate. Also, the high risk of banking activities and the transfer of this risk to other monetary and financial sectors of the economy, leads to increased costs and complexity of the process of receiving facilities, imposing this cost on other facilities and reducing the ability to provide credit, diversion and failure to meet facility objectives. Banking income instability, which requires more attention to financial and banking indicators.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of intra-organizational and macro factors affecting banking leverage in selected Iranian banks in the presence of heterogeneous slope coefficients and cross-sectional dependence of residuals. For this purpose, the mean group estimators were used from 1999 to 2018 for selected 10 banks. Diagnostic tests showed that the hypotheses of cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity of slope coefficients can not be rejected, so, the Augmented Mean Group estimator (AMG) was used. According to the results, the variables of credit risk and liquidity risk have positive and significant effects while the bank size has a negative and significant effect on bank leverage. Among macro and extra-organizational factors, inflation and real interest rates have positive effects and economic growth has a significant negative effect on the financial leverage of selected banks.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the mechanism of monetary transmission through the asset price channel in financial development. In this regard, the impact of monetary policy through housing price and stock price channel has been evaluated by using seasonal data of 110 economic variables during 1991:1-2016:4 and FAVAR model. The results of the impulse response functions indicate that in the medium-term and long-term housing price channel increased production, but also had significant inflationary effects in the short and medium term. Also, given the significant impact of the stock price channel on production, it can be said that the capital market has an important role in directing resources and funds towards productive activities, which ultimately increases investment and production. Based on the results and the significant role of the stock price channel in transmitting monetary shocks to the price level, it can be said that this channel plays a significant role in reducing inflationary effects of monetary policy.

The main purpose of this study is to estimate the probability of banking crisis using the second generation of early warning systems (logit models), for 13 selected high-middle income countries over the period of 1980-2016. In this regard, two types of logit models; binomial and multinomial, are estimated. The results of estimated binomial logit model show that three leading indicators of the crisis are broad liquidity ratio, stock price index and inflation, which are the main causes of crisis in the studied countries. These variables account for about 17 percent of the probability of a banking crisis. Then, to avoid post-crisis bias, the multinomial logit model is estimated. The empirical results confirm that above three leading indicators are warning. Also, among the above three variables, only stock price index variable with a probability of 12.68%, causes the economy to exit the banking crisis and change its situation from the crisis/recovery period to the tranquil period. The multinomial logit model exhibit significantly better in-sample predictive abilities than the binomial logit model.

The banking system in Iran operates based on the monetary and banking act and the law for usury-free banking operations; however, in most Islamic countries, there is a dual system of Islamic banking and conventional banking. In this study, the monetary policy in Iran is investigated by Taylor rule firstly then the optimal monetary policy (Ramsey method) with maximizing household utility as a target of the central bank is considered by using the nonlinear new Keynesian DSGE model. Necessary changes in various sectors of the model, including households, production sector, government, oil sector, central bank, state-owned banks, non-governmental banks and stock exchanges as financial intermediaries, for a small oil-exporting economy within the framework of usury free banking system is considered and its results are evaluated and described. The results show that in the case of deterministic steady state (Taylor rule), monetary shock has greater impact on gross domestic product, and if Ramsey’s optimal monetary policy is pursued, the effects of shocks, will decreased and economic stability will be improved.

Issuance of Islamic securities (Sukuk) is one of the means for financing the armed forces،. Given its varieties, the question arises as to which type of sukuk is suitable for issuing and financing the armed forces. Inevitably, an answer to this question is contingent on the consideration of the special feasibility and securities compatibility involved in funding the Armed Forces. The objective of this paper is to assess and rank of Islamic securities for financing the armed forces, and thereby, propose an appropriate one based on needs. For this purpose, a four-level hierarchical structure with two main criteria and nine sub-criteria was used to rank the seven different types of common sukuk، using the AHP-SAW method. Data and evaluations were collected by engaging the opinions of experts through a questionnaire. The results indicate that Sukuk Al-ijarah and Sukuk Qardh Al-hasan are respectively the most suitable instruments for the issuance of finance for the Armed Forces. On the other hand, the least suitable type of Sukuk for this purpose is identified as Sukuk Al-Mudarab. The reason for the suitability of Sukuk Al-ijarah is based on its lease agreement which is conditional of ownership. This condition renders Al-ijarah the best instrument for obtaining heavy military equipment، such as destroyers.

One of the issues raised about crises is dating them. If the date of crises are determined, future problems can be reduced by adopting appropriate policies. Banking crises are not an exception to this rule as one types of financial crises. Hence, in the present study, the dates of the banking crisis were determined by calculating the modified money market pressure index for low middle-income and high middle-income countries over the period of 1980-2019. Then, obtained dates were compared with dates of Laeven and Valencia (2020) by calculating the Kappa coefficient. The results of this comparison show a matching of about 10 percent for low middle-income countries and about 30 percent for high middle-income countries between crisis dates of the present study and the study of Laeven and Valencia (2020). Also, the investigation of inflation and real GDP growth for the studied countries showed that inflation is a suitable leading indicator for early warning of banking crisis. The decline in real GDP growth in the post-crisis years was also cited as one of the problems of the banking crisis.