masood soufi majidpour

The petrochemical industry in Iran, as a flagship sector, plays a pivotal role in the national economy, supplying a substantial share of its output to downstream industries. In recent decades, advancements in technology and research within the petrochemical sector have led to substantial improvements, reducing costs and enhancing efficiency. Therefore, considering the importance of the petrochemical industry and its role in economic growth, this article aims to evaluate the efficiency of petrochemical companies using the bootstrap-DEA approach. This method provides statistical inference regarding technical efficiency criteria in non-parametric frontier models.

To achieve this objective, a comprehensive two-stage approach was adopted. First, input-oriented efficiency scores were estimated under the assumptions of constant, variable, and non-increasing returns to scale for all companies, using radial (Debro-Farrell efficiency) and non-radial (Russell efficiency) methodologies to provide a robust evaluation. Then, a non-parametric independence test was conducted to identify the appropriate bootstrap implementation approach. Finally, considering the test results, the efficiency scores of petrochemical companies were estimated using the bootstrap-DEA approach. The bootstrap process allows for bias estimation and the calculation of confidence intervals for initial estimates.

The results indicate that Tondgoyan Company achieved Debro-Farrell efficiency under all three scenarios: constant, variable, and non-increasing returns to scale. Additionally, Zagros and Fanavaran companies exhibited Debro-Farrell efficiency under variable returns to scale. However, 18 other companies were inefficient, with Ghadir Petrochemical Company displaying the worst performance, achieving an efficiency score of 0.68 under constant returns to scale. Bias-corrected radial technical efficiency scores across homogeneous, heterogeneous, and subsampling bootstrap methods revealed that none of the 21 petrochemical companies exhibited full technical efficiency. Among them, Fanavaran and Tondgoyan showed better performance, while Aria, Pardis, Shiraz, and Isfahan Oil companies demonstrated the lowest input-oriented technical efficiency. Output-oriented technical efficiency findings indicated that Tondgoyan and Zagros were efficient, while Ghadir had the worst performance, with an efficiency score of 1.37, signifying 37% excess input consumption. The results further demonstrate that radial efficiency estimates are prone to overestimation, as confirmed by heterogeneous smooth bootstrap and subsampling techniques.

One of the primary objectives of Iran's 7th Development Plan is achieving 8% economic growth, with 2.8% attributed to productivity and efficiency improvements in production factors, including capital, human resources, technology, and management. Emphasis has been placed on bolstering the value-added chain within the petrochemical industry. Therefore, attention to the development of midstream and downstream petrochemical industries through reinvesting revenues from the export of upstream products is crucial for completing the value chain of the petrochemical sector.

Increasing spending on social security resources is one of the country's economic challenges. Since the population structure and its dynamics in any country is considered the axis and center of economic and social planning, on the other hand, this increase in population requires the assurance of prosperity and peace in the future. Therefore, planning and predicting the impact of demographic changes on the resources and expenses of the social security organization until 2050 is of great importance.

In this research, the estimation of the population based on age groups using the cohort method has been done until 2050, and then the demand and supply of labor in four different scenarios has been predicted until 2050. Using the average ratio of insured persons to employed persons, the number of insured persons has been predicted until 2050. To determine the number of pensioners, the ratio of pensioners to the number of people over 60 years of age is used, and by maintaining the stability of this relationship, the number of pensioners has been estimated until 2050.

One of the scenarios, which is highly likely to happen, shows that since 2035, the gap between the cost and income of the social security organization will increase. Another scenario determines the mentioned year 2040 as an important time for this gap. The results of this research show that by 2050, the expenses of the social security organization will exceed its resources by about 14,016 thousand billion tomans.

The trend of social security organization's resources and expenses, based on a realistic scenario, which is more likely than other scenarios, shows that until 1415, the social security organization's resources are more than its expenses and there is a surplus. In 2035, resources and expenses are equal and there is no deficit. From 2035 onwards, the gap between resources and expenses is increasing in favor of expenses.

The policies used by governments in emerging and developing economies during the financial transition have always faced the question of what impact the central bank’s interventionist monetary and currency policies have had on banks’ risk-taking. In this research, the impact of monetary and foreign exchange policy on the risk-taking of commercial banks was investigated, and in this way, a sample consisting of 15 stock-exchange banks from 1386 to 1400 was investigated using the quintile regression method and the state space method. The estimation results showed that monetary and currency policies have a positive relationship with liquidity risk. In addition, the findings showed that with the beginning of sanctions, the liquidity risk of banks has increased and the impact of monetary and currency policies on larger banks has increased. Therefore, small banks are less likely to go bankrupt compared to large banks.