Estimation of Resources and Expenses of Social Security Organization Until 2050 Based on Population Changes

Increasing spending on social security resources is one of the country's economic challenges. Since the population structure and its dynamics in any country is considered the axis and center of economic and social planning, on the other hand, this increase in population requires the assurance of prosperity and peace in the future. Therefore, planning and predicting the impact of demographic changes on the resources and expenses of the social security organization until 2050 is of great importance.

In this research, the estimation of the population based on age groups using the cohort method has been done until 2050, and then the demand and supply of labor in four different scenarios has been predicted until 2050. Using the average ratio of insured persons to employed persons, the number of insured persons has been predicted until 2050. To determine the number of pensioners, the ratio of pensioners to the number of people over 60 years of age is used, and by maintaining the stability of this relationship, the number of pensioners has been estimated until 2050.

One of the scenarios, which is highly likely to happen, shows that since 2035, the gap between the cost and income of the social security organization will increase. Another scenario determines the mentioned year 2040 as an important time for this gap. The results of this research show that by 2050, the expenses of the social security organization will exceed its resources by about 14,016 thousand billion tomans.

The trend of social security organization's resources and expenses, based on a realistic scenario, which is more likely than other scenarios, shows that until 1415, the social security organization's resources are more than its expenses and there is a surplus. In 2035, resources and expenses are equal and there is no deficit. From 2035 onwards, the gap between resources and expenses is increasing in favor of expenses.