mohammad ajza shokoh

Applying of two systems Light Rail Transit and Bus Rapid Transit as skeleton of public transport has been defined in Mashhad city. There are problems in the line routes of the system including about 50 percent coverage with each other along their routes that this problem reduces the system's coverage. This research is done with the aim of re-designing of the mentioned routes with a view to maximizing system access. Research method is both qualitative and quantitative and it is applied research. To reform the public transport skeleton routes a mathematical modeling approach is applied using ant colony algorithm. Then combined access index using Hansen method has been calculated divided to 253 traffic zones and in two different cases, system status quo and the system proposed by research. The population access, the places of employment and attractive land uses were have noticed on calculating the mentioned index. The research data were obtained from database of comprehensive transportation study of Mashhad which was update at 2013 using documentary study. Improved routes of public transit skeleton have been defined as the results of this research that they have no coverage with each other so the system coverage is increased while their overall length is less than the approved routes. Also the access index significantly increased in case of modified system compare with the primary one. Given that the existing public transit skeleton system has been designed with methods based on movement, the results of this research reveals differences between the methods based on movement and access in case of designing of public transport.

Describing and quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion in developing countries play a crucial role in determining the mechanisms of urban growth and decision making processes. Urban dissonant development is one of the most important issues in land using, and predicting urban development is not simply possible, but it needs a model to consider the complex nature of urban processes. Urban land uses constitute a complex system which is controlled both by human activities and spatial-temporal dynamics. The rapid population growth and urbanization in developing countries provoke uncontrolled urban sprawl and correspondingly pose a threat to the environment. This urbanization process in territorial structures led to a higher complexity and pressure on the natural environment Logistic regression is one of the experimental predicting model. Determination of weight of mobile factors based on empirical rather than expert knowledge is one of the benefits of this model. Another superiority of this model is the ability to import more variables. Considering the importance of this issue, this study is working around the modeling the development of Bojnourd, using logistic regression in 28 years. This method is a descriptive and analytic model that uses 9 independent variables for modelling. The Pseudo-R2 and ROC, respectively were 0.2835 and 0.9335 that are in an acceptable range. Therefore, this modeling is confirmed. Evaluating the sensitivity of the model, using the method of eliminating independent variables, represents high impacts of tilt and its distance of water surfaces in modelling. Southern urban areas and rural areas are the most suitable areas for the development in the future.