mohammad daneshnia

The economy's dependence on oil revenues and derivatives of these products make the country's economy heavily influenced by the volatility and instability of the pricing of these products. Therefore, it seems necessary to develop non-oil exports. This paper examines the causality relation and the effect of foreign direct investment, economic openness and real exchange rate on non-oil exporting in I.R.Iran. Using annual data covering the period 1974-2008, vector auto regressive method and Toda- Yamamoto causality test it is shown that significant and positive effect exist between openness of economy, foreign direct investment, and real exchange rate on non- oil export variable. More over the existence of a single causality relation from real exchange rate and economic openness to non–oil exporting has been proved.

Always economic growth is one of the most important indicates for economic development. Thus، more production is important and effective way to achieve economic development. In The other hand energy production is considered as the one of the inputs. This study، examines the causality relationship between energy consumption، economic growth and price among OPEC member countries. This study uses annual data over the period 1978-2008 by using panel data technique. Results Our show that a two-way Causality relationship are between the variables as energy consumption and economic growth in the long run، while the one-way causality relationship is from economic growth to price increase. As well as two-way causality relationship are between the variables energy consumption، economic growth and prices in the short term.

High economic growth always has been of interest to policy makers and administrators that these strategies have been proposed to achieve this. Energy is a production factor and its impact on economic growth can be observed, therefore in this study was investigate the causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the ASEAN member countries, the period 1978 of 2008, for the purpose of the exam panel unit root, panel cointegration and panel vector error correction model is used. The results of this study indicate that in this group of countries there is not co-integration relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and price growth. But there is the co-integration relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. However, long-term bilateral causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the short term, there is also a one-way causality from energy consumption to economic growth.

Iran is one of major oil producers and exporters in the world. Since the crude oil export is a major source of Iran’s income, it indirectly influences the country’s other economic activities. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of oil price changes on major macroeconomic variables including gross domestic product, government capital expenditures, money supply and inflation rate in Iran during 1971-2007 period. A vector Autoregression (VAR) model is estimated for this purpose. Impulse Response Function (IRF), the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) are then utilized to analyze the results. The major findings are as follows: 1-Gross domestic product, government capital expenditures, money supply and inflation rate are positively affected by oil price fluctuations. 2-Forecast Error Variance Decomposition analysis, indicates that oil price plays a major role in explaining inflation rate and money supply, but it’s role with regard to gross domestic product and government capital expenditures is secondary.

Always, financial sector has a central role in development and economic growth. Hence the relationship between financial development and economic growth appears to be essential. This article examines the impact of financial development on economic growth, with consider other variables affecting the economic growth, such as ratio of commercial, domestic investment and interest rate.This study estimates a relationship between variables within a Auto regressive Distributed Lag framework over the periods. The results of this study represents a significant and positive impact of financial development on economic growth. Also domestic investment has a positive and significant impact on economic growth, and Interest rate has a significant negative impact on economic growth.

In any period of time and economic condition، specific monetary and fiscal policies are used. Hence the influence of monetary policy depending on the adopted monetary instruments، is different. But the important issue is the impact of monetary policy on other parts of the economy. One of the foeffective factor monetary policy is exchange rate. The aim of this study is to examine the relevance and effectiveness of monetary policy on exchange rates using annual time series of 1989-2007 and auto regressive distributed lag method (ARDL). The results of this study indicated that the effect of monetary policy on exchange rates is positive and significant in the long term. National income have a significant negative impact on exchange rates. While the impact of unstable fluctuations of exchange rates and consumer price index on the exchange rate are not significant. In short term، monetary policy after one lag period and unst exchange rates. Unstable flactuation of exchange rate have significantly positive effect on exchange rates، while national income and consumer price index have significantly negative effect on exchange rates.

The importance of non oil export and it’s role in economic deuelopment of Countnies, has been considered as value subject for a long time. More over, understanding and the rate of effect factors on non oil export may help export development. Therefore in this study Withy using 2SLS and statistic from (1971-2009), it had assessed the effective factor in the Iranian non oil export. We have shown that, the world’s income and real currency echange rate have a positive and significant effect on export demand. Governmental fundamental investment also has a positive effect in the non oil export. Although foreign direct investment and excess internal demands not have a significant effect on export, they show a positive and a negative coefficient, respectively.

Inflation has always been an economic problem and different solutions have been proposed to control it. Although it is said that “higher output lowers inflation rate” but it is true when other factors are constant. This study searches the answer to the following question: “what is the effect of inflation rate and output in a case that inflation rate and output growth has a volatility trend?” To this aim we use seasonal data on Iran’s gross domestic product and consumer price index from spring 1975 to summer 2008 and an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model to show volatility the variables. The results of this study show that there is an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) process in the output growth and inflation rate. We also find that the inflation rate and output volatility increase Inflation rate and the output volatility higher output growth. The hypothesis that the inflation rate volatility lowers output growth can not be accepted.