mohammad hasannejad

Identifying the pattern of exchange rate fluctuations makes it easier to predict currency crises and can help prevent or reduce their harmful consequences. The present study seeks to provide a model to better identify the pattern of exchange rate fluctuations and also predict the likelihood of a currency crisis in Iran in the future. The degree of government intervention in the foreign exchange market affects how this variable fluctuates; therefore, exchange rate fluctuations in Iran (managed floating exchange rate system) can’t be similar to exchange rate fluctuations in developed countries (floating exchange rate system). In developed countries, the Markov switching 2-regime model is mainly used to explain exchange rate fluctuations and predict currency crises, and this is in line with their currency system. Despite the large differences in the exchange rate fluctuations of Iran and developed countries, domestic researchers have also used Markov's 2-regime model to identify the pattern of Rial changes. using 3 criteria: maximum likelihood, Akaik, and Hanan Quinn, we show that for detecting the pattern of rial changes, the Markov switching 3-regime model is better than Markov switching 2-regime model. The results also show that 2-regime model fits better with euro and pound fluctuations. Forecasts show that the probability of Iran’s presence in the Currency Crisis Regime in the next one or two years is decreasing and the probability of Relative Stable Regime is increasing. Therefore, we predict that in the coming years, Iran will enter a new period of Relative Stable Regime. The present study has been conducted in the period of 1387 to 1400.

This study aims to explain the relationship between cognitive abilities and faith in intuition with behavioral biases and also to explain the relationship between behavioral biases and performance of professional investors in the Tehran Stock Exchange. We compare two different measures of impulsive or intuitive behavior, examining their effect on anchoring bias and conjunction fallacy, and finally examining the effect of behavioral biases on investors' performance.

The sample consists of 311 professional investors in the capital market whose data were collected via questionnaires. Chi-squared test, Mann WhitneyU test, ordinary least squares, and probit regression were used to analyze the data.

The results show that faith in intuition has a positive and significant effect on anchoring bias and conjunction fallacy. While cognitive ability has a negative and significant effect on the conjunction fallacy. The results also show that faith in intuition has a negative and significant effect on return. The results of regression analysis also show that gender reinforces the negative effect of cognitive ability and the positive effect of faith in intuition on the conjunction fallacy.

The results show that faith in intuition is more related to behavioral biases and performance than cognitive abilities, and is more informative overall.

The aim of this study is to explain the relationship between cognitive abilities and faith in intuition with trading strategies and performance of professional investors in Tehran Stock Exchange. To this end, we examine the components of cognitive ability and faith in intuition on active / passive (buy and hold) and portfolio diversification / concentration strategies as well as the performance of investors. The sample consists of 310 professional investors including 160 traders and 150 analysts in thecapital market whose data were collected via questionnaires.Logistic regression and ordinary least squares were used to analyze the data. The results show that for traders, highfaith in intuitionis associated with more active trading, and higher cognitive ability results in more concentrated portfolios. Moreover, higher cognitive ability has a positive and significant effect on traders’ performance, while higher faith in intuitionhas a negative and significant effect on their performance. The results are somewhat different for analysts, as their portfolios become more diverse with their age, while faith in intuition leads to a more concentrated portfolio. However, analysts’ intuition, like traders, is negatively and significantly correlated with performance

Klotho is considered as an anti-aging factor inducing insulin resistance and involved in type 2 diabetes. However, mechanisms by which klotho induces insulin resistance remain to be understood.  Thus, in this study, we aimed to evaluate possible interference points of klotho with insulin signaling pathways in 3T3-L1 adipocyte cells by focusing on phosphorylation levels of Akt, GSK3β, PFK-fβ3, and GLUT4 translocation. Differentiation of 3T3-L1 cells to the adipocyte-like cells were performed using specific differentiation kit and confirmed by mRNA expression assay of PPARγ using qRT-PCR, and Sudan black staining of lipid droplets. Then cells were co-treated with klotho and insulin. Expression and translocation of GLUT4 mRNA were evaluated using qRT-PCR and Alexa flour 488 conjugated GLUT4 antibody, respectively. P-Akt/Akt, p-GSK3β/GSK3β, and p-PFKfβ3/PFKfβ3 ratios were determined in insulin and klotho/insulin treated cells using western blot. Our result indicated that GLUT4 expression were decreased to 0.72 ± 0.16 fold in insulin treated cells, however it was calculated 1.12 ± 0.25 fold in klotho/insulin treated cells. In addition, klotho prevented GLUT4 membrane translocation by 27.2% in comparison with insulin-treated cells (P</em> < 0.05). Interestingly, in insulin/klotho co-treated cells,  phospho-levels of Akt, GSK3β, and PFKfβ3 proteins was decreased to 2.34 ± 0.14, 2.29 ± 0.63,  and  1.95 ± 0.37 fold in comparison with the insulin cells, (P</em> < 0.05). In conclusion, our study indicated that klotho induces insulin resistance in adipocytes possibly through prevention of GLUT4 translocation, and interfere with phosphorylation of Akt, GSK3β, and PFKf3β intracellular signaling mediators by insulin.

The aim of the present study, Investigate real earnings manipulation by management activities in firms listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange And its impact on investors perception of the sustainability of earnings components. For the analysis of research data of the method Regression analysis with panel data and also simultaneous equations by Mishkin test (1983) has been used in the Eviews software. The statistical population is consist of firms listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The duration of the research is five years since 1388 to 1392. The results of the study indicate that companies suspected of manipulating earnings from management Discretionary expenses and also manage production costs used as a strategy to manipulate the results of their financial statements. But their use of operating cash management as a strategy to manipulate their financial statements were not confirmed. The results also showed that the real management activities to manipulate earnings at all three levels, will causing incorrect understanding investors of earnings sustainability components

Capital markets’ return is influenced by multiple and various factors. These factors range from macro global factors to dependent variable historical behaviors. Each of many researchers has selected a segment or segments of this vast range of factors impacting capital market return in different countries and embarked on devising a model for projection of the respective capital market return. The present research has utilized self-explanatory and combined models for the purpose of modeling and projecting Tehran Exchange’s return using Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Autoregressive Moving Average with External Inputs (ARMAX) models. In this research, to utterly expound the model and to factor in maximum factors, following examination of return issues and the factors impacting return, the subject of projection and the common methodology thereof have been surveyed and different models of projecting capital market return have been examined in detail. Then, Classic Linear Regression Models, Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Autoregressive Moving Average with External Inputs (ARMAX) models were used to predict the return of Tehran Exchange. After estimating the above models, deploying 99-period data and confirming the power of expressing them via applying diagnostic tests, the return of Tehran Exchange for the next 4 periods was projected. These predictions by applying estimation models were compared with the real data and the optimum model was selected using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Schwartz-Bayesian Information Criterion, Hannan-Quinn and also MSE, MAE, MAPE criteria. The final result indicates superiority of ARMA over ARMAX

One of the main objectives of the companies is to attend international markets and expand their activities abroad. In case that selection of the destination country for investment be along with expertise studies, it will be a profitable source for companies. Due to the importance of this topic, numerous institutions are active in the field of risk ranking and risk assessment of different countries that each one focuses on a particular aspect. In this study, affecting factors for investment in foreign countries are formulated according to local experts’ opinions and based on that, the optimized countries for investment have been determined.In the first place, quantitative indices are extracted from library studies and reports issued by international institutions, and qualitative indices affecting the choice of target countries have been determined based on expertise interviews. In the second place, based on 16 indicators derived from the previous step, and by means of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) decision making techniques, 47 selected countries have been compared and ranked. It is worth noting that the 16 indicators are classified into 3 main factors: The ease of action in business, macro economy‘s status and the capital market of the country’ status.

Due to the high rate of crime repeated by ex-offenders after their terms of prison, having an organized and smart supervision and using proper methods for each society are considered as vital needs for each judiciary system.In Iran, with respect to the present situation, in order to rehabilitate ex-offenders, any of the society-based, place-based, offender-based, or instrument-based approaches need to be applied, either in isolation or in combination with each other’s. Surely, characteristics of an offender and his/her crime are main factors of choosing the type of supervision.To achieve this goal, the cooperation of all ministries, governmental organizations, civil entities and NGOs as well as the strategic role of the police in making collaboration between these will be of a very high importance.