mohhamadjalal abbasi shavazi

Human population dynamics is the central question of the causes and consequences of environmental changes. As a result, without taking social and demographic changes into account, it is impossible to have an integrated and reliable assessment of future environmental changes in order to manage natural hazards. The current study uses the scoping review method and time study analysis to investigate and evaluate the concept of "environment" in the existing literature in the field of demography from 2000 to 2022. The results revealed that the contribution of these studies increased from 0.5% to 4% during the period. Furthermore, such variables as household dynamics, gender structure, urban population distribution, the effect of migration on the environment, age structure, educational composition, the effect of migration on the environment, and rural population distribution have been covered as the most important demographic components of the effects in 28% to 4% (in order) of the studies. In addition, the components of energy consumption, pollution emissions, climate change, natural resources, deforestation, natural hazards, waste production, water resource reduction, soil erosion, sustainability and protection, and biodiversity were the most important components highlighted in relation to environmental issues, ranging from 21 to 2 percent. The majority of studies in this field have been hampered by the lack of a broad and adaptable theoretical framework. Therefore, with a deeper understanding and awareness of the impact mechanism of population dynamics on environmental issues in various dimensions, it is possible to rewrite environmental risk management, energy consumption, pollution reduction, climate change reduction, and environmental protection policies in a novel way.

Inspired by the conceptual framework of carrying capacity, this study tends to answer the challenge of equilibrium of population, water, and food security in Iran. In this regard, the trends of size and age-sex structure of Iran’s population and accordingly the Iranian food requirement changes in the last seventy years have been evaluated. To do so, the amount of blue water used for the real agricultural production and meeting the needed food pattern has been calculated and compared using the concept of water footprint. The results show that the trends of some products such as sugar, fruits, and cereals are beyond the needs of the population, while the trends of other products (such as oilseeds and proteins such as red meat, eggs, and dairy products) have not met the population's nutritional needs in the country. Furthermore, the estimation shows that food production has exceeded the water resources carrying capacity in Iran since 2006. Nevertheless, if the optimal pattern of food production in the country and solutions such as reducing waste and losses in the agricultural sector had been used, the programmable water of the country would have still met the food needs of the country's population.

In recent years, Iran has been faced with severe water-related risks. Considering Iran’s water-related hazards, policymakers formulated water policies based on changing cropping patterns. However, it seems the interconnection between rural household livelihood security and cropping patterns has been neglected in these policies. Accordingly, this study intends to determine the minimum area that can meet the rural household’s livelihood security for each cropping pattern. The other main objective of the study is to identify the number of farmers exposed to livelihood insecurity if their cropping areas were limited and they did have not any option for supplementary livelihood. The findings could be useful for water policies considering both livelihood and water security. 

Inspired by some World Bank studies in the field of poverty, and rural livelihood, a conceptual framework, and some equations were developed to answer the main objectives of the study. The minimum area that can guarantee the rural household’s livelihood security for each cropping pattern was estimated for the period 1986-2018. The other objectives such as the number of people (farmers and their households) who have been exposed to livelihood insecurity due to the size of the cropping area are estimated in 2014. All required data are gathered from the Iranian Statistics center (Agriculture Census, Population and Housing Census, Rural Households Income and Expenditure Survey, and The purchase price of agricultural products survey) and the Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad.

The results indicate that the minimum crop area required to guarantee rural livelihood security, including such crops as wheat and beans (productions that need less water), are 10 times less than production that needs more water (like potatoes and vegetables). Our results also estimated that around seven million people have been exposed to livelihood insecurity due to the low per capita crop area. Thus, it is recommended that policy makers must consider the farmers whose livelihoods are dependent on farming and agriculture and establish a multi-dimensional policy considering water, food, and economy simultaneously.