The Effect of Demographic Trends on Food and Water Security in Iran

Inspired by the conceptual framework of carrying capacity, this study tends to answer the challenge of equilibrium of population, water, and food security in Iran. In this regard, the trends of size and age-sex structure of Iran’s population and accordingly the Iranian food requirement changes in the last seventy years have been evaluated. To do so, the amount of blue water used for the real agricultural production and meeting the needed food pattern has been calculated and compared using the concept of water footprint. The results show that the trends of some products such as sugar, fruits, and cereals are beyond the needs of the population, while the trends of other products (such as oilseeds and proteins such as red meat, eggs, and dairy products) have not met the population's nutritional needs in the country. Furthermore, the estimation shows that food production has exceeded the water resources carrying capacity in Iran since 2006. Nevertheless, if the optimal pattern of food production in the country and solutions such as reducing waste and losses in the agricultural sector had been used, the programmable water of the country would have still met the food needs of the country's population.