mohsen shoukat fadaee

In this study first, a suitable economic planning model for agricultural water resources management in Kerman province was presented. Then the potential impacts of water supply policy plans on its agricultural sub-sector were evaluated.

In the implementation section, a three-stage calibration of a comprehensive economic model based on the positively mathematical programming (PMP) method and the maximum entropy (ME) approach were used. The required data and information are for years 2017-2018 that documentary and regional studies approach (regions A, B and C in master plan of provincial cropping pattern) through the organization of agriculture and water resources management in Kerman province were collected.

The results show that with implementation of supply-side policies, cropping patterns are developing towards acreage of low water and cereal products in different areas of Kerman province and products such as onions, cotton and vegetables have the largest reduction in cropping pattern. Under these conditions, farmers pay about one-third of the real value of agricultural water inputs in the form of water extraction and transportation costs and farmers southern Kerman province have the lowest level price elasticity of water demand (0.175). Corn and potatoes respectively, by maintaining and sustaining acreage in A (Agriculture in dry conditions) and C (agriculture in tropical conditions) regions provide optimal patterns to supply needs in these region and adjacent region.

Therefore, under conditions of water supply reduction policy the suggested patterns in the northern regions of Kerman province (A) are better optimal than other regions patterns (B and C).