فهرست مطالب ozra bayani

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of shocks on factors affecting financial crises in Iran's economy. In this study 62 explanatory variables were introduced into the model between 1370: 1 and 1395: 4 and, using the Bayesian averaging model approach, 12 non-critical variables that were effective on the financial crisis were identified. According to the results of the results, it can be stated that the financial crisis index in Iran's economy is a multi-dimensional problem, as variables related to fiscal policy; monetary policy and foreign exchange policy affect this index. Based on the results of the Autoregressive Vector Models Variable-Time Parameters, it was also observed that the effect of selected variables on financial crises in Iran over the course of time has had different effects and in recent years the intensity of the effect of selected variables has been strengthened. One of the fundamental solutions is that policies that reduce inflation uncertainty, such as the fiscal and monetary discipline of the government and the central bank, reduce crisis expectations by stabilizing the currency and currency markets can reduce crisis uncertainty.

Recent crises indicate the failure of early warning models. The research considers this failure to identify the explanatory variables and the empirical design of the model, the factors that this research seeks to improve. In this research, it is attempted to determine the factors affecting the financial crisis in Iranian economy by defining uncertainty in crisis models and using a conventional approach to Bayesian average. In this study, 62 variables affecting the financial crisis were introduced into the model. Finally, using the Bayesian averaging model, 12 non-critical variables that affect the financial crisis, which include deficit or surplus, unofficial exchange rate deviation from the official, inflation rate, ratio External debt to foreign assets of the Central Bank; Increasing coefficient of money (liquidity/ monetary base); Export to GDP ratio; Import to GDP; Government expenditure to GDP ratio; Budget deficit to GDP; Liquidity ratio to foreign assets of Central Bank; Rate of credit growth granted to the private sector and inflation squeeze. Regarding the output of the results, it can be stated that the financial crisis index in Iran's economy is a multi-dimensional problem, as variables related to financial policy, monetary policy and foreign exchange policy affect this index.

This study in first stage, describes the transaction costs imposed on credit institutions and the factors affecting them from the traditional model of transaction cost economics and also introduced the "relationship lending" as a variable that points to reduce the information asymmetry between the borrower and the credit institute. The impact of this variable using Ordered Multinomial Probit Model on the Williamson model will be examined. Credit institutes under this study have been collected as a random sample from banks in Tehran .These banks had been authorized by central bank of Iran till March 2012. The results shows that with the introduction of the independent variable "lending relationships" the final effect of the independent variables "investment in specific assets", "special collaterals", "degree of uncertainty for the credit institute" and "difficulty in measuring employee performance" on variable of transaction costs of lending will be reduced.