فهرست مطالب r ghazavi

Due to the limitation and scarcity of water supplies, it is essential to identify and reuse alternative water sources, particularly in the arid and semi-arid regions according to environmental conditions. Reuse of runoff is an adaptive management philosophy and approach to balance efforts and provide sustainable water services and manage hazards. The present study is aimed to design a suitable model of water resource management with an emphasis on crisis management. In this study, indices and dimensions of the water resources management model were determined via the Delphi method (based on Schmidt, et al.). Delphi panel members were identified and selected in three stages using random sampling. The faculty members of water resources and watershed management university specializing and passive defense experts of water organization were selected as the Delphy panel members. Initially, panel members identified the most important effective items on water resources security, based on their inference of the model. Based on the first evaluation and after eliminating duplicates, 43 items remained. Finally, 36 items remained in the analyses, when the items with low and medium significance coefficients were eliminated. The final model of water resources management was approved by the expert opinion based on the crisis management approach. According to the results, designing rainwater collection and storage systems in different parts of the city and installing tanks for roof rainwater collection in each home were selected as the best approach in the critical condition (with an average grade of 4.94), whereas the installation of the sensors in different parts of water pipe with an average grade of 2.10 was ranked in the 33rd selection. Finally, the items identified by the Delphi panel were classified into four general indices: retrofit, safety, culture, and planning. In general, it is necessary for the officials of urban water resources, as well as crisis management, must prepare for crisis conditions as well as the correct, principled, and scientific use of available water resources to extract and store rainwater and runoff to use it in crises and disrupt the general water supply system.

Study of the changes in precipitation regimes is very important in proper water resources management. In this research, in order to analyze the state of precipitation and annual dry spell periods, the trends of SPI, Annual Maximum Dry Spells length and Annual Number of Dry Spell Periods indices were studied. For this purpose, daily precipitation data of five synoptic stations in northwest of Iran (Urmia, Tabriz, Ardebil, Khoy and Maragheh) having a 34-year data record (1981-2014), were used. After examining the homogeneity and normality of the data, the significance of autocorrelation in each of the time series was tested. According to outcome of Mann-Kendall test, all three indices had a decreasing trend in the most of stations. Decreasing trend in the two AMDSL and ANDSPs indices reflects improvement of spell and number of dry periods, and decreasing trend of SPI index indicates reduction of precipitation. So, we can conclude that despite of the reduction in precipitation in the region, rainfall distribution has improved over the years. Decreasing trend of the two SPI, and ANDSP indices is significant in Maragheh and Mann-Kendall test criteria (Zm) for SPI, and ANDSP indices were -3.622 and -2.408 respectively (P<0.05). In order to identify the change points of the trends of series, sequential Mann-Kendall technique were used. The results indicated the occurrence of significant jump in Maragheh station.

One of the important elements in mechanized irrigation is to know the relation between suction force (matric force) and soil moisture, which is referred to as moisture curve. The shape and coefficients of this curve are influenced by the texture and structure of the soil and can change with soil structure modification.  The most important goals of this study were to evaluate the effect of using zeolite on water holding capacity and coefficients of moisture curve patterns of two sandy and loamy soil texture, the effect of using zeolite on the shape and soil moisture curve coefficients based on various models, some of them so far in Iran, zeolite was added to soils at levels of consumption (2, 5 and 10%). The moisture content of each soil was determined at various points in 12 points using a Dicagon machine.  Soil moisture curve coefficients using software and fittings of six Brooks and Corey models, Kosugi, Durner, Fredlund and Xing,  VanGenuchten and Seki. The results indicate that in all models, the parameter value increases with the use of zeolite and increase the level of use. Water storage capacity also increases with the use of zeolite.  Other results showed that the best model for estimating the moisture curve of laryngeal and sandy soils of the Darren model is weakest and the weakest models in the lush soils of the broccoli model and Kasughi model and in the sandy soil of the Brooksouli model Blindness and model-gnuchten Shand.

Forecasting rainfall depth is very important in water resources management. ARIMA family time series models have a widespread application in this context. The main objective of this study was to predict monthly rainfall using the best time series stationary method and the most suitable ARIMA family model. In this study, Ardabil synoptic station’s data was used. In the first step, the trend and seasonality terms of monthly rainfall data from 1990 to 2016 were removed using different methods and in the second step the efficiency of different ARIMA models for predicting monthly rainfall was investigated. Results showed that the stationary method using 12 period centered moving average and seasonal average in order to remove trend and seasonal variation, respectively, is the best stationary method with the highest correlation coefficient (r=0.8). Also, the SARIMA (1,0,1) (0,0,1)12 model with the highest correlation coefficient (r=0.8) and the lowest Akaike criterion (AIC=191.74) is the best prediction model for monthly rainfall at the studied station. Finally, the monthly rainfall of the next 3 years (2017-2019) forecasted using the optimized stationary method and the selected model. Results showed that the rainfall trends of Ardabil synoptic station will be decreased in the next three years.

Rule of arid and semi arid climates in the vast of the country along with population increase and the increase in water demand for urban use industry and agriculture of one side and the growing trend of increased direct and indirect pollution of water resources of The other side Implied that the status and quality of these resources to provide water for various uses and uses of, be studied (Noshad et al, 1388).change of groundwater quality and be saltation water resources are now in great danger in the development of country agriculture, especially dry lands. Optimum management of water resources and protecting and improve of quality of those Need to Existence of information about position, amount and distribution of water chemical factors In a certain geographical area. Geostatistics as one of the branches of practical statistics Provided study Simultaneous Amounts of Variable and arrangement of variable spatial and temporal observations in the data analysis (Gvvart, 1999). Using geostatistical techniques can be created continuous surface of Statistical properties of Known points(Deutsch, 2002). there are Different methods for the study and characteristics of the groundwater that each of them depending on local conditions And existence statistics and data of sufficient have Accuracy of different. Purpose of this study studies, qualitative zoning of underground water resources In terms of water quality parameters in the city of Kashan, by using geostatistical methods. This area is geographic range of "40, '57, ˚ 50 to" 37, '38, ˚ 51 east longitude, and "37, 31, ˚ 33 to" 22 and '08, ˚ 34 north latitude is In this study is used of methods of kriging, ordinary kriging, Inverse Distance Weights, Radial Basis Function, Local Polynomial Interpolation and Global Polynomial Interpolation. 2- Methodology In this study According to research goals 42 wells in the study area was selected with the appropriate distribution. and Amount elements of groundwater quality in the wells for the period 1380 to 1388 were examined and evaluated. Reasons for selection this period is completeness of statistical data of quality parameter. In the next step all data related to selected quality factors were study In terms of normality According to kolmogorov-smirnov test. After examining of data normality, finally parameters of Ca, Na, SAR, HCO3 for qualitative evaluating groundwater resources in this study were selected. To zones drawing of related to Quality parameters was used of Arc GIS9.3 software. In order to explain the continuity of spatial variables variogram data to a separately with Software GS plus was plotted and analyzed. Finally, with according to two factors RMSE (root mean square error) and R (coefficient sets) Best method for maps drawing of underground water quality were selected in the sity kashan and Aran Bidgol. Discussion After study and determine Fluorescence of Data Suitable variogram to determine the spatial structure and profile Was drawn with Using of GS + software, of variograms Analysis spherical model is the best model Fitted on Qualitative data. Spatial structure based on the standard (C/C+ C0) has been done too, According to the results obtained Measure values for C/C+C0 for every four parameters studied is more than 0/5. Results of evaluation methods showed that Between geostatistical method is most useful for study of variables HCO3, SAR, Ca and Na Methods Ordinary kriging with Higher R values and lower RMSE than the simple kriging is superior. and Between the specific methods for study qualitative variables HCO3, SAR, Ca and Na, respectively, methods, RBF, LPI, RBF and LPI are located. Conclusion In this study was to test normality of data was approved According to the results of spatial analysis of qualitative data in this study, high Influence. Range show that be effective the spherical model for best fit variogram on the data. According to principles of geostatictics, variable that have suitable spatial correlation and variance estimate is lower, fewer samples are needed to estimate(Zehtabyan, 1389), so it will also lower the cost of sampling. Thus, using Analysis variogram Ratio Nugget Effect for parameters, HCO3, SAR, CA and NA respectively 1/76, 0/58, 7/79 and 0/16 is calculated, that all the numbers obtained is small amounts that indicated high accuracy estimate with the variogram of fitted indicates a strong spatial structure for all four parameters is discussed. Also examine the spatial structure according to standard C / C + C0 shows that for the parameters, HCO3, SAR, CA and NA value for this measure, respectively is 0/98, 0/98, 0/92 and 0/99, The results indicative high spatial structure of data. The results of the geostatistical methods were used in this study showed that the method of choice for change mapping of hco3, Method Radial Basis Function to reason Higher R values and low RMSE (R= 0.44 and RMSE= 1.76) Was selected for Drawing of hco3 changes mapping. For SAR change mapping method of ordinary kriging (With values of R =0.75, RMSE =1.96), also for drowing change mapping of hco3 method of ordinary kriging(with Values of RMSE =5.75, R =0.41), and for drawing change mapping of na, method Local Polynomial Interpolation(with Values of R=0.55, RMSE =8.24) be selected. main cause reduction of ground waret quality in terms of quality parameters considered in study area is Unsuitable development of agricultural lands and Excessive utilization of ground water Which cause influx of brackish water to these areas.

It is inevitable for the improvement and development of rangelands to conserve and protect range species especially key species and palatable ones. One of the successful projects in rangeland improvement and development is to apply seeding methods. It is very important to have technological knowledge about temperature and appropriate time of seed storage in barn and it’s relation with surviving the germination capacity. The aim of this study is to determine the effects of time and temperature on Eurotia ceratoides germination. This species regarded as a native plant in southern slop of Alborz Mountain. The seeds were collected from Shahkooh region in Golestan province (Iran). After gathering seeds in the site and separating them from litters and other defect seeds, they were kept in oven at a temperature 30 °C, and then taken out when their humidity was about 7-8 percent. 44 containers, all with their shutters, each filled with 150 random seeds were put in four treatments: 0-5, 5-10, 15, 20°C. Every eleven containers were placed in separate storage areas. Then a germination machine was used to measure the germination capacity with the intervals of (3, 6, 9, 12,…, 30) months. Results showed that all the temperatures had a significant difference at (P<0.001) and maximum ratio of germination was achieved at 0-5°C during 9 months. The interaction between temperature and time of storage showed that the percentage of germination capacity of the seeds stored till 9 months for temperatures 0-5 and 5-10°C, will increase and then decrease. But in the treatments with 15 and 20°C, with an increase in time of storage, the germination of Eurotia ceratoides will decrease. It seems that though, high temperature is one of the factors that decreases the after-ripening period, in a short time, it has a severe effect on the germination capacity of Eurotia ceratoides. Seeds of Eurotia ceratoides can sustain more than 50% of their germination capacity at temperatures 0-5 and 5-10°C during 2 years.