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Energy security represents a vital and multifaceted component contributing to national and global stability. Currently, no universally accepted methodology exists for quantitative assessment of energy security. Nevertheless, the prevailing scientific approach defines and quantifies energy security in a manner that accounts for the rapid transformations within the global economy and geopolitical landscape. Studying the Energy Security Index across developed and developing countries can provide valuable insights regarding energy security. In this paper, after identifying the most important categories defining energy security, a comprehensive Energy Security Index was developed utilizing Principal Component Analysis (PCA). For this purpose, data from 111 selected countries spanning 2000 to 2020 were analyzed. The research findings indicate an overall improvement in global energy security and enhanced performance among developed countries. Moreover, according to these findings, oil-producing countries did not possess an advantage in energy security relative to non-oil-producing countries. Therefore, strategically managing the components defining energy security, especially within developing countries, is recommended.

One of the key elements to achieve economic growth and development of the country is financial stability. According to the empirical evidence in recent years and the intertwining of the financial system and the economic development of countries, high economic growth cannot be considered, but it was not successful in the financial markets. Therefore, considering the importance of the combined index of financial and economic stability in the economic growth and development of the country and especially the road transport sector, in this study the role of the combined index of financial and economic stability in the road transport sector of the country during the period of 1370-1401 has been examined. In the first step, the combined index of financial and economic stability was calculated with the help of the cumulative distribution function method, and then to investigate the effects of the combined indicators of financial and economic stability on the road transport sector, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was used to achieve the research findings. The results show that both in the short term and in the long term, the combined index of financial and economic stability has a positive effect on the added value of the road transport sector. The short-term and long-term elasticity of added value of the road transport sector is 0.074 and 0.153 respectively, which shows that its long-term elasticity is more than the short-term elasticity. Also, the results of the stability and diagnosis tests show that the coefficients of the variables are stable in the long term..

Taxation is one of the primary fiscal policy tools available to the government, playing a crucial role in economic growth, price stability, and promoting social equity. The value-added tax (VAT) law serves as an effective alternative to many indirect taxes and fees that cause significant distortions across economic sectors. VAT, by addressing shortcomings in the tax system, can provide a reliable income source for the government. Since the introduction of a pilot VAT law in 2008 and the enactment of a permanent law in 2021, Iran’s tax system has faced various legal and operational challenges. This study simulates the effects of VAT rate increase shocks across three scenarios (12%, 15%, and 20%) on Iran’s economic sectors using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on the ORANI-G-Iran model and a 2016 input-output table. The results indicate that higher VAT rates lead to increased inflation and investment while reducing GDP and consumption.

In order to control the supply and demand of energy and the correct planning in directing the consumption, the monthly gas consumption of the country's industries was investigated with artificial neural network and genetic algorithm in this research for 1402. The country's population information, industrial producer price index, gross domestic product at a fixed price of 90 and gas consumption of the country's industries were investigated as influential variables. The results showed that the best artificial neural network combined with the genetic algorithm is a network with a mutation rate of 0.5, an intersection rate of 0.5, the number of repetitions of 150, and the initial population size of 150. The combination of artificial neural network and genetic algorithm showed that in the spring season there was a total of 2957.7 million barrels of crude oil equivalent, in the summer this figure increased to 3502.6, in the autumn to 4329.9 and in the winter with a growth of 8.15 percent. It will reach 4683 million barrels of crude oil equivalent

​Financial stability is the cornerstone of modern economies and shows the proper functioning of the financial system and is a prerequisite for economic growth and strengthening the economy against shocks. In the path of economic growth and development, financial stability and its effects play an important role in the economy. On the other hand, road transportation is one of the important sectors of the country's economy and has a great impact on the country's economic growth. So, considering the importance and role of financial and economic stability in increasing the country's economic growth, as well as the importance of road transportation in the country's economy, in this study, the analysis of short-term and long-term causality relationships between the financial and economic stability index and the economic growth of the investigated road transport sector is included. For this purpose, first, the combined financial and economic stability indices were calculated, and then the short-term and long-term causal relationships between the financial and economic stability index and the economic growth of the road transport sector were analyzed. The results indicate a long-term and short-term relationship between the growth of the combined indicators of financial and economic stability and the value-added growth of the road transport sector, the growth of the amount of goods carried and the growth of the amount of passengers carried in the road transport sector. The effect of combined indicators of financial and economic stability on the added value of the road transport sector, the growth of goods transportation and the growth of passenger transportation has been positive. There is a one-way causal relationship from the combined indicators of financial and economic stability to the added value of the road transport sector, the increase in the amount of goods transported and the growth in the amount of passenger transportation.

One of the most important goals of every country is to establish financial and economic stability. If there is financial and economic stability, economic growth and investment and other goals will be achieved at the macro level and provide the basis for development. Considering the importance of this issue and since the combined index of financial and economic stability can play an important role in the economic growth and development of the country, especially in the rail transport sector, in this study the role of the combined index of financial and economic stability in the rail transport sector of the country has been examined. For this purpose, in this study, the combined indicators of financial and economic stability are first calculated, and then the effects of the combined indicators of financial and economic stability on the rail transport sector are investigated by using the self-regression econometric model with a wide interval to estimate the model and interpret the results. The results show that both in the short term and in the long term, the combined index of financial and economic stability has a positive effect on the added value of the rail transport sector. Also, according to the error correction coefficient, it can be stated that the speed of adjustment towards the equilibrium and long-term value is suitable, so that in each period about 0.46 of the imbalance error is adjusted and the short-term value tends towards its equilibrium and long-term value exponentially. Finally, the results show that the coefficients of the variables are stable during the investigated period.

Applying a favorable tax system has important conditions such as justice and efficiency, therefore, consumption tax and income tax will comply with the principles of benefit and ability to pay. In this regard, value added tax is known as the most important innovation of the 20th century in terms of tax collection on consumption. Since increasing government revenue is one of the important goals of imposing this type of tax, the government has tried to determine the rate of this type of tax effectively and efficiently. Disproportionate increase in value added tax rates can have negative social effects on inflation, economic growth, income distribution, and general well-being in society. It may also have disruptive effects on other variables and sectors of Iran's economy. To manage the rate increase, one approach is to simulate and examine its consequences and effects on macroeconomic variables in the form of a multi-regional calculable general equilibrium model (MRCGE). Three different scenarios were applied and examined to simulate the shock effects of the increase in the value-added tax rate (12% , 15% , and 20 %) on four macro variables of Iran's economy: inflation, gross domestic product, consumption, and investment.  The simulations were conducted at the country level using a multi-regional calculable general balance model, known as the ORANI-G Iran model, using the 2016 input-output table and regional accounts of the country. The results indicate that the effect of increasing the tax rate on value-added will increase inflation and investment and decrease GDP and consumption.

Extended Abstract
This study investigates the impact of the capital market using multivariate GARCH models and the Markowitz algorithm to optimize the stock portfolio. The statistical population of this research includes stock exchange companies that were admitted to the stock exchange before 1395 and were active until the end of 1399 and had the following characteristics: The financial year of the companies should have ended on March 20th and the companies' shares should have been traded on the stock exchange during each year of the research period and the end-of-period price was available. In addition, the financial information of the companies must also be available. Considering the above characteristics, 4 top industries, including the automotive and parts manufacturing industry, the selected electrical machinery industry, the metal mining and oil products industry, were selected as the screening population in our portfolio based on a combination of stock liquidity, stock trading volume in the trading hall, stock trading frequency in the trading hall, and the company's impact on the market. The sample size is 800 and is daily during the period from 1395 to 1399.

The results of this study show that the optimal weights are more allocated to stocks with less volatility in the stock return trend of that industry. In fact, lower weights are allocated to industries with more volatile returns among the four industries, namely the automotive and parts manufacturing and oil products industries. Conversely, the largest optimal average share of the portfolio among the four industries is for the non-metallic minerals industry with the least return volatility.

The results of this study also show that industry stock return shocks have reciprocal effects on each other. For example, a positive shock to the stock return of the non-metallic minerals industry leads to a negative shock to the stock return of the automotive and parts manufacturing industry. In addition, the results of this study show that the CCC and DCC models have different results in estimating the optimal weights of the industries and risk-free assets that make up the investment portfolio. So that, the DCC model, compared to the CCC model, allocates less weight to the stocks of the automotive and parts manufacturing and oil products industries and, conversely, allocates more weight to the stocks of the non-metallic minerals industry. Finally, the results of this study show that the portfolio formed using the Markowitz optimization algorithms can track the risk-averse individual's utility to maximize profit. And Based on the results of this study, it is suggested that investors pay attention to the volatility of the stock return of that industry when selecting stocks for investment and allocate a greater share to stocks of industries with less return volatility.

It is also suggested that DCC models be used alongside CCC models to estimate the optimal weights of the investment portfolio. In addition, it is suggested that Markowitz optimization algorithms be used to form an investment portfolio that matches the risk-averse individual's utility. Now, let’s address the limitations of this study, that one of the limitations of this study is the use of daily stock return data. It is suggested that in future research, data with higher frequency such as hourly or minute data be used. Another limitation of this study is the non-consideration of other factors affecting stock returns, such as macroeconomic factors. It is suggested that in future research, these factors should also be considered.

The results of this study have important implications for investors and portfolio managers. The use of multivariate GARCH models and the Markowitz algorithm can help to optimize stock portfolios and improve risk-adjusted returns. Investors should consider the volatility of stock returns and the correlation between industries when making investment decisions. DCC models can be used to estimate optimal portfolio weights, and Markowitz optimization algorithms can be used to form portfolios that match the risk-averse individual's utility. Future research should focus on using higher frequency data and considering other factors affecting stock returns.

The present paper explains the dynamics of substitution tensions between fossil energy carriers for gas consumption in the transportation sector of Iran in the horizon of 2025 using seasonal space model and Kalman filter approach for the years 2006-2019 in the form of quarterly data. Based on the results; Price elasticity and revenue elasticity of gasoline and gas oil are -0.20, -0.15, 0.27 and 0.41, respectively. Income elasticity of products indicates that gasoline and gas oil are normal commodities. Also, the price elasticity of both products is less than one. Among the important factors in the low price elasticity of gasoline and gas oil with gas consumption in the transportation sector of Iran can be; Searched for supply and demand. On the supply side, we can mention the small number of stations compared to cars and the compressed gas distribution capacity of each province in relation to the population. This difference is so great that it has created a difference of 500% between the best and the worst province. On the demand side, we can mention the extra costs of repairing and maintaining gas-powered vehicles compared to gasoline-powered vehicles, less power, reducing trunk space, and so on.

The effect of abundance of natural resources on economic performance has been one of the most important topics in recent decades in the country. This issue has always been a source of controversy among experts and economic experts. The noteworthy point is that paying attention to the importance of the role of institutions in economic performance both in general and in detail is agreed by most economic thinkers today. In this study, we seek to investigate the impact of the abundance of natural resources and institutional quality on economic growth in recession and prosperity regimes. For this purpose, the effect of study variables during the period of 1994 to 2020 is investigated by using the rotation model and Markov switching regime change. According to the estimation results of the model, the amount of exposure of the economy in the current research is 10 periods of recession compared to 16 periods of prosperity in the model. Also, according to the estimation results, in the second regime, i.e. the boom period, with the increase in the growth rate of oil revenues and institutional quality, it has led to an increase in the economic growth rate, and in the first regime, i.e. the recession period, it has led to a decrease in the economic growth rate.

Credit risk is the probability of default of the borrower or the counterparty of the bank in fulfilling its obligations, according to the agreed terms. In other words, uncertainty about receiving future investment income is called risk, which is of great importance in banks. The purpose of this article was to estimate the credit risk of Mellat Bank's legal customers. In this study, the statistical information of 7330 real customers was used. In this regard, the results of neural network model and support vector machine model have been compared. The obtained results have shown that the components considered in this study based on personality, financial and economic characteristics had significant effects on the probability of customer default and credit risk calculation. Also, the results of this study showed that the application of control policies at the beginning of the repayment period suggests facilities that have the highest probability of default with long life and high repayment. Comparing the results obtained from the prediction accuracy of different models, it was observed that the explanatory power of the support vector machine model and the use of the survival probability function was higher than that of the simple neural network model for the studied groups of real customers.

Capital adequacy ratio is one of the most important indicators in analyzing the situation of banks in order to manage banks against risks such as bankruptcy and their inability to meet obligations. This controls the risk management of banks. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of banking variables on the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) in private banks in Iran during the period 2011-2018 and in Malaysia quarterly during the period 2012:01-2019:04 by Threshold Auto regression Method. The results showed that the CAR in the low regime with four lags had a negative effect and in the high regime had a direct effect on the CAR of Iranian banks. But it did not have a significant impact on the Malaysian banking system. The share of bank deposits in Iran in both regimes has a negative effect on the CAR. But it had a direct effect on the Malaysian banking system in the high regime. The size of the bank in the low regime had a direct effect on the CAR of private Iranian banks. But in Malaysia, in both regimes, it had a direct impact on the capital adequacy ratio. The share of credits in both regimes had a direct impact on the CAR in Iran. But in the Malaysian banking system in both regimes had a negative impact on the CAR. Liquidity in the low regime has a negative effect on the CAR in private Iranian banks. But in the high regime did not have a significant effect. While in the high regime, liquidity has a direct and significant effect on the CAR in the banking system of Malaysia. Returns of assets in the low regime do not have a significant effect on the CAR of Iranian banks. But returns of assets in the low regime have a direct and significant effect and in the high regime have a negative effect on the CAR in the Malaysian banking system. Financial leverage in the low regime does not have a significant effect on the CAR of Iranian banks, but in the Malaysian banking system in the low regime has a negative effect and in the high regime has a direct effect.

The transportation sector is one of the basic sectors of any economy and investing in this sector increases the mobility of labor and capital and leaves positive side effects on other sectors of the economy. Due to the importance of the issue, in this research, investment in the transportation sector in conditions of production uncertainty has been examined. For this purpose, EGARCH model has been used to calculate production uncertainty and to estimate the main model, the autoregression model with distributed intervals has been used and with the help of EVIEWS10 software, the model has been estimated and the results have been interpreted.The results show that there is a conditional variance heterogeneity in production and this means the existence of production uncertainty. Also, the results of model estimation show that both in the short run and in the long run, with the added value of the transportation sector, the investments made in the transportation sector will increase. Investment in the transportation sector also decreases as production uncertainty increases in both the short and long term. Also, both in the short run and in the long run, exchange rates, inflation rates and interest rates have a negative impact on investment in the transport sector. Also, according to the error correction factor in the ECM model, it can be stated that the adjustment speed towards the equilibrium and long-term value is appropriate, so that in each period about 0.778 the imbalance error is adjusted and the short-term value towards its equilibrium and long-term value exponentially He wants to. The model is also examined in the continuation of diagnostic tests.

The aim of this study is to identify and evaluate the factors that influence credit risk employing a multinomial logistic regression approach. For this purpose, in the first phase, indicators that affect credit risk assessment of natural customers were identified using documentation and library method. Then, the final data on the indicators were collected, including 7330 files of natural customers of Mellat Bank, and multinomial logistic regression was employed in studying the indicators of credit risk assessment of the bank’s natural customers in the four classes of timely receipt, overdue, deferred, and non-performing loans. The results of the estimated model show that the indicators of gender, loan value, age, installment interval, previous loan, occupation, loan repayment term, number of installments, quantity of each installment, loan extension, type of collateral, average balance, facility interest rate, type of facility, and education level have a significant impact on the credit risk of real customers.

The present paper explains the dynamics of substitution tensions between fossil energy carriers in Iran: Policy guidelines for gas consumption in the industrial sector on the horizon 2025 using the space model and Kalman filter approach for the years 2006-2019 in the form of quarterly data. Based on the model estimation results; Price and revenue elasticity of kerosene, gasoline, gas oil, furnace oil and liquefied petroleum gas -0.14, -0.07, -0.46, -0.10 and -0.24 and 0.48, / 06 0, 0.17, 0.48 and 0.01. Because the price elasticity of all four products is less than one, increasing the prices increases manufacturers' costs, and increasing costs slow down the pace of gas replacement. There is a direct relationship between sales tariffs and natural gas demand, which means that with a one percent increase in sales tariffs and liberalization of kerosene, gasoline, gas oil, fuel oil and liquefied petroleum gas prices; Gas demand respectively; 0.46, 0.34, 0.004, 0.17 and 0.11 will increase. As a result, natural gas is a stretchable commodity in the long run. Also, the highest price elasticity and substitution elasticity among petroleum products with natural gas up to the horizon of 1404, respectively; related to gas oil, furnace oil, kerosene, gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas. In other words, as a result of the implementation of the above policies, the share of crude oil in the initial energy supply has decreased from 89.5 to 42.5 percent. Furthermore, the share of natural gas has increased from 8.5 to 63.5 percent. As a result, the country is currently far from the goals set out in the document.

The purpose of this study is to calculate tax evasion based on the income of legal entities and to examine its stability, which has been done by estimating the Tanzi monetary demand function during 1370-1397. The demand function included the ratio of currency holdings to supply of money  as a dependent variable and the tax variables of legal entities, the ratio of wages and salaries to national income, real national per capita income, real interest rates paid on saving deposits and real oil revenues as independent variables. Then, the results used to estimate linear and nonlinear effect on tax evasion on the basis of income of legal entities by threshold regression during the period of study. The findings indicate a nonlinear model with significant coefficients, that the results are more satisfactory than the linear model and also  confirm the existence of a nonlinear relationship and fiscal instability in the income base of legal entities. The transition speed between the two regimes is equal to 3.20 according to the estimated transition parameter (git).That is the equations show that tax evasion changes will be strongly influenced by the  past tax evasion and will affect the behavior of this variable.

The purpose of this study is to validate customers and the impact of its components on non-current receivables of Bank Mellat. For this purpose, in the first stage, first, by using the documentary and library method, 15 indicators affecting the validation of customers in three sections: individual, financial and social identified, and then the final data related to the indicators, including the files of 7330 real customers of Bank Mellat, were collected during 2013-2019. To study the credit rating indicators of customers and the impact of its components on non-current receivables of Bank Mellat, multiple logistic regression was used in four categories of timely receipt, past due, delinquent and doubtful receivables. The results showed that in general, individual, social, and economic conditions affecting the credit of real customers have a significant effect on reducing the non-current receivables of Bank Mellat. Using the results of research model estimation can help bank managers and monetary and banking policymakers to make the right decision regarding customers' credit ratings and reduce banks' non-current receivables.

The tourism sector is considered by policy makers because of its positive external implications for other sectors of the economy such as services and industry, and its positive effects on employment and economic growth. The revenue generation of the country's tourism industry, in addition to being a function of economic variables including exchange rate and per capita income of the country, depends on the services of the transport and hotel sectors, the state of political and economic stability of the country and the presence of historical and natural attractions of the country.The present paper examines the factors affecting the tourism sector of selected developing countries with emphasis on transport infrastructure in the tourism development sector for the period 2000-2015. The results of the research indicate that the development of transportation in the air and rail sectors has had a positive and significant impact on the tourists entering the countries. Also, the tourism registered in the UNESCO Organization, the political stability of the host countries, per capita gross domestic product and the exchange rate have had a positive impact on the arrival of tourists.

This research investigates stock market liquidity, ownership, and choices of capital structure using the Panel VAR model for 50 companies listed in the stock exchange over 2013-2019. According to the results of Panel VAR estimates, a one standard deviation shock to ownership structure caused the capital structure to increase in terms of companies’ debts, and this effect continued by increasing debts. Also, after some periods, the impact of the shock to corporate ownership structure on capital structure in terms of debts achieved its highest point and was followed by a decreasing trend..Analysis of variance showed that 0.03% of the impacts were caused by shocks in ownership structure, 0.5% was related to liquidity shocks, 0.09% was related to shocks in the corporate size, 0.005% was related to shocks in sale growth rate, 0.02% was related to shocks in fair value of assets, 0.08% was related to shocks in profitability, 0.51% was due to shocks in the consumer price index, and 3.93% was related to shocks in exchange rate volatility. Among the variables considered, exchange rate volatility, inflation, liquidity, and ownership structure, respectively, had the most impact on the capital structure for companies listed in the stock exchange over annual periods.

One of the most important issues in recent decades in the country is to study the impact of oil revenues on the performance of the country's economy. Some believe in the existence of oil revenues in the success of economic performance, while others believe in the backwardness of the country despite the role of oil revenues. But the agreed point is the importance of the role of institutions in the economic performance of the country.. The present study uses the method of estimating parameters with variable coefficients and Kalman filter approach to investigate the role of institutional quality on the relationship between abundance of oil revenues and economic growth in Iran for the years 1994 to 2018. According to the results; Due to the inadequate economic structure of the country, the abundance of natural resources has not been used efficiently and the abundance of resources has caused certain deviations in the economy and as a result has slowed down the growth of the economy through various channels.

In the development process, economic activities are associated with positive and negative environmental effects in countries. What is observed physically and in the present is the production of the product and the resulting growth in economic activities. While by assessing the environmental activities of economic activities and recognizing its direct and indirect negative effects on society now and in the future, the net effects of economic activities can be identified.

The industrial sector is fundamental to economic growth. The industrial sector's share of total economic activity equals 16 percent. Sometimes its activities are accompanied by the destruction of the environment. This article examines the factors affecting CO2 emissions with an emphasis on the industrial sector by using the ARDL and FMOLS methods for the years 94-1360.

The results of this study confirm EKC Technology. In other words, by increasing the value added of industry, the emission increases but its slope decreases (inverse u shape). With increasing fossil fuel consumption and globalization, emissions will increase.Discussion and

Compare the results of the short-run and long-run model showing the sensitivity of Co2 emissions to fossil fuel consumption and the long run globalization index is larger than the short run.

The purpose of this essay is to scrutinize the effects of the announcements of OPEC (including increasing, decreasing and not changing the supplies) on the fluctuations of oil price in crude oil markets. For this purpose, this research has applied the conditional variance inconsistency and affected the variance control to consider the effects of these announcements on the fluctuations of crude oil from 1987 to 2019 based on the outcomes obtained from the analysis of events. applied the conditional variance inconsistency and affected the variance control to consider the effects of these announcements on the fluctuations of Brent and WTI crude oil from 1987 to 2019 based on the outcomes obtained from the analysis of events. The findings reveal that these announcements differently affect the WTI Brent and the fluctuations of oil market. These types of announcements differently influence the fluctuations of the crude oil market. Indeed, this effectivity is reduced by time dragging. According to the results, it is suggested that members cooperated together in planning and executing decisions in an organized pattern in order to highly affect the crude oil market.

Recovering part of waste to cycle of production which is known as recycling is one of the most important parts of waste optimal management in the world. In this process part of urban solid waste is being sorted and then will be changed in to other industries raw material in certain industrial department. Tehran with its high number of population daily production of nearly 7500 tone of household waste is in need of the developed urban waste recycling system. Due to Iran’s industrial framework and technology potential, a large part of this waste can be recycled. This thesis studies the establishment of an integrated recycling complex and its economic justification in Aradkoh (Kahrizak’s landfill). Based on this research, recycling and establishment of such compounds can be a profitable and justified investment. This thesis has also tried to convey the eco friendly massage of establishment of those compounds considering the landfill consequences of Tehran’s waste disposal system.

The purpose of this study is to examine the business cycles, stocks and oil prices, and the synchronization between them. In this research, the regime of business cycles, oil prices and stock indexes in the form of two regimes of recession and boom were identified for the period 1372 to 1395(as seasonally adjusted). The results indicate that in the real sector of the economy, the length of a period of the boom is more than a recession, and the likelihood of a boom is equal to 0.92 percent and more than a regime change or the stagnation of the recession. The period of rising of the stock index is more than the period of its recession. But the period of rising in oil prices is less than the period of its recession. The results of the coincidence of variables indicate that oil price is the leading in three seasons and coincident to GDP. Also, the stock index is leading in three seasons with GDP but in the opposite direction. The policy recommendation of this paper is that policymakers, having regard to the extent to which the real sector of the economy is closely aligned with the stock index and the price of oil, and being leading of the stock index and the price of oil in the real sector of the economy, by adopting appropriate policies, they can reduce the negative effects of fluctuations in the stock market and oil and add its positive effects.

One of the most important subjects in the field of industry and education is identification and isolation of the return of investment in research and development and its impact on economic growth. Since the cost of this type of investment is usually high, policymakers want to make sure that it is the real return and how it can be measured. In this study, the main goal is to investigate the effects of indirect R & D on economic growth in countries. To this end, we use regression quintiles model. Results show there is significant and positive relationship between spending on R & D and innovation as well as inventions and costs of training with GDP in high income and upper middle income countries. Also in high income countries, the higher the level of income of a country, human capital, human resource training, and the amount of inventions, play a greater role in explaining their output growth compared to labor and physical capital. While in upper middle income countries, physical capital still plays a major role in GDP growth.