فهرست مطالب tayebeh shojaee

Climate change and global warming will endanger the production of agricultural products and food security in the world . The horticulture sector and fruit trees are affected by the climate because of the long distance to the production. Any changes in temperature patterns will change the length of the growth season, change the phonological and physiological stages. Air temperature is often considered as the main factor affecting the phonological phases of fruit trees in temperate climates. The increase in the Earth's surface temperature due to greenhouse gas emissions has created a phenomenon called climate change. The perceived effects of climate change on the daily lives of communities around the world have raised the public's attention to climate change. The transformation of the climate and its consequences from different aspects on the planet are not covered by anyone. Today, the challenge of climate change and its effects is the most important challenge facing the country. Fruit trees are subjected to climate change as one of the main sources of agricultural economics and employment in the country. Considering the importance of grape product in the country's economy, it is important to study the effects of climate change on this tree in the country. Therefore, the present study aimed at revealing the effects of climate change on the time of phonological stages of Grape tree in Iran based on the output of new CMIP5 models and representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP).

The realm of this research is the cultivation of grape tree in Iran. The major areas of grape tree cultivation in Iran are located in the northern, western, and eastern regions of high and cold. In the present study, two types of data were used to analyze the purpose and content of the research using statistical-analytical method. The data of the baseline or past period has been extracted from IRIMO by the actual statistics of 55 meteorological stations in vineyard cultivation areas. This observation data includes the statistical period (1985-2005). Future data as simulated data is based on the output of CMIP5 models. This data has been processed in two routings RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 from 2020 to 2090. In the upcoming period, the models (BCC-CSM1.1, MRI.CGCM3, GFDL-CM3, MIROC-ESM and (GISS-E2-R from the CMIP5 models of the MarksimGCM database were used in the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios). The results showed that the MRI.CGCM3 model has a higher ability and ability to simulate the future than other models.

The results showed that the MRI.CGCM3 model, considering the higher weight, than the other general circulation models proposed, has a higher ability to simulate temperature and precipitation behavior in the future period than the base period. The model has the minimum, maximum and precipitation temperature for weight, respectively, 0.40, 0.39 and 0.29, respectively. Therefore, from the model data, the in-built comparison model of the CMIP5 models, based on RCP radiative forcing scenarios, was used to assess and detect the effects of climate change in the upcoming period. The results showed that the air temperature in the pessimistic and middle run pattern of RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, respectively, would increase compared to the baseline period. This increase in the pessimism pattern was higher than the midterm pattern. The changes in the far future period (2056-2090) will be greater than the upcoming mid-term (2020-2055). The magnitude of these changes in the RCP8.5 induction trajectory in the period (2020-2055) and (2056-2090) at the selected station level was 1.6 and 2.4 degrees Celsius, respectively, and in the RCP4.5 induction line , Is 1.2 and 2.3 degrees Celsius, respectively, relative to the base period.

Output of the overall model of the MRI.CGCM3 model in illustrating the climate change of the upcoming period has less simulation abilities and errors than the observation period or the baseline period. The results showed that in the most pessimistic case in the middle and distant future, 1.6 and 4.2 degrees Celsius, the minimum temperature would increase compared to the baseline period. The results showed that the most changes occur during the occurrence of phonological stages in cold regions and high latitudes of vineyard cultivations. Due to the increase in the temperature of the air in the future period, the date of occurrence of the phonological stages of the grapevine will also change. Due to the increase in the air temperature of the future period, the threshold of biota will occur ahead, and as a result, the vinegrowing period will begin earlier than the previous period. So, in a pessimistic evolutionary pattern, the threshold of biota timing will be ahead in the middle of the future, 8 to 16 days, and the flowering time will be 7 days to 16 days. Therefore, one of the major effects of climate change on fruit trees will evolve in the form of a change in the time of occurrence of the phonological stages. In the future period, the deviation from the optimal temperature conditions of the phonological stages of the grapevine will be increased. In the futures period, the amount of deviations and temperature anomalies will increase significantly from the optimum temperature range over the base period. Cold regions and high latitudes. The regions of northwest and northeast will have the highest deviation from optimal temperature conditions. The range of areas with high temperature deviation was observed at the phonological stage of germination and flowering. The flowering stage shows the highest deviation from optimal temperature conditions. From the south to the north of the grapevine area, the amount of deviation from optimal temperature conditions will be increased.Changes and displacement of the threshold times of the grapevine biomass increase the risk of possible dangers of frost and late frost in most vineyard cultivation areas, especially the northern half. Selection of species and varieties resistant to and adapted to the climatic conditions of each region is important. In the future period, the range of cultivars of the grapevine will decrease. In the future, the final area of the grapevine area will be limited to 12.64824123 hectares. In fact, due to the rising air temperature in the future, areas susceptible to Ango cultivation in the southern, central, and eastern regions of the grapevine area will lose their climate capability.

In order to choose the best forms for each region and invest, the climatic conditions should be considered. Among the climatic elements, thermal indexes are effective factors in the production cycle, and the quality and quantity of grapes. Given the lack of water resources and the threat of climate change, there is a need for potentiometry and clustering of different regions.

According to the content and purpose of statistics and information, the hourly and daily climatic data of 200 climate stations were used. In order to compute the required chilling, the CH model was prepared and implemented. According to daily and monthly statistics, climate parameters were refined and investigated. We used a weighting method based on hierarchical approach for accurate decision making and identifying the relative importance of climatic criteria for grape cultivation. For the following climatic criteria, the information layer was arranged through a database of 200 meteorological stations of the Iranian Meteorological Organization. For the following geographic criteria, layers were used in the country. In order to determine the suitable areas for planting grapevine, using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in the Epert choice11 software environment, the criteria and sub criteria were weighted. Then, using the Geographical Information System, the layers were overlapped based on their weight and the final land suitability map for planting grapevine in Iran was obtained based on climatic conditions.

Pairwise comparison of criteria and sub-criteria based on hierarchical analysis showed that the criterion of climatic conditions with a weight of 0.63 was considered as the most important criterion in determining suitable areas for grapevine cultivation. Pairwise comparison of the climatic conditions criterion indicated that the sub-criteria of 451 were the highest among the sub-criteria in the grape trees. Temperature sub-criteria exhibited the greatest weight during the slump and growth period. Paired comparison and spatial distribution of the climate-chilling showed that a large part of the country does not supply winter creeps or cold storage for grapevine trees. The southern half of Iran is entirely unsuitable due to the existence of mild winters for commercial cultivation of creeping trees such as grapes. Paired comparison and spatial distribution under the climatic criterion of the slump period demonstrated that largest spatial distribution is allocated to the middle class in the margin of highlands and high latitudes regions. Paired comparison and spatial distributions under the scale of the growth period illustrated that the spatial pattern in this sub-criteria is highly dependent on the altitude and latitude. From the north to the south and from the west to the east, the suitability for growing grapevine decreases. Paired comparison and spatial distributions under the climatic criteria of absolute minimum temperature revealed that in terms of absolute minimum temperature, there is a limitation on grapevine for some regions of Iran. These areas are mainly mountainous belts of the Zagros mountain, the northwest cold region and northeastern Iran. Paired comparison and spatial distribution under the climate criteria of maximum air temperature showed that temperatures above the threshold of 40 degrees Celsius adversely influence the quality and yield of grapevine. In fact, in terms of absolute maximum temperatures, more than half of the country's surface area is unsuitable. Paired comparison and spatial distributions under the geographic scale elevation above sea level showed that suitable altitude areas are limited to the high and mountainous regions of the northwestern, northern, and northeastern Iran. Paired comparison and spatial distributions under the relative climate of relative humidity indicated that due to the relative humidity of the grape vine compared to many fruit trees, the relative humidity in Iran is high for the grapevine tree. Paired comparison and spatial distributions under the climatic criteria of sunshine hours illustrated that the distribution of sunshine hours affects the latitude factor causing an increase in sunshine hours from north to south. A wide range of  growing fruit trees in terms of sunshine days can be found in Iran. Therefore, most regions in the country provide unlimited solar radiation for grapevine growth. Paired comparison and spatial distributions under the geographic scale elevation above sea level showed that altitude plays an important role for locating vineyards. Suitable high-altitude areas are limited to the high and mountainous regions of the northwestern, northern, and northeastern Iran. Paired comparison and spatial distribution below the gradient geographic scale showed that planting fruit trees, especially grapes, is more cost-effective in steep slopes. Considering the high adaptability and physiological conditions of the grapevine, almost all regions of Iran, except very high and mountainous regions, are suitable for planting grapes. Suitable vineyard cultivars are adapted to the slopes of mountainous and relatively high mountainous regions in the mid-west, northwest, northeast, and scattered areas of the center, east and south east of the country. The range of cultivating grapevine trees is 42% of the country's surface area.   

The results revealed that the climate criterion has a pivotal role for determining land suitability for grapevine trees. The suitable vineyard cultivars are located in the mountainous and relatively hilly mountains in the northwest, northwest, northeast, and dispersed areas of the center, east and south east of Iran. These findings are important for land use planning and spatial planning with emphasis on climatic and geographic capabilities for efficient use of natural resources.

The present study aims to investigate the structure and trend of climate parameters affecting grape growth in Khorasan Razavi (north eastern Iran) in the period of 1991-2015 in 8 weather stations. Effective climate elements such as temperature, precipitation, the number of hot days, the number of frost days, sunshine hours and parameters such as maximum temperature, annualaverageannual average of temperature and precipitation, the growing season and phenological stages were calculated, and their effects on the quality of grapes were assessed. In general, Thethe results indicatedd that in general, the warming in the growing season with a significant increase in great accumulation indices, particularly the increase in the maximum temperature, mean temperature, the number of days with maximum temperature bigger than 90th percentile, and the number of days with the maximum temperature greater than 30 °C. Precipitation during the growth period particularly in the germination and blooming for all stations is reduced. This issue indicates potential soil moisture stress during this vital growth stage. Analyzing the crop evapotranspiration (ETC) indicated that because of warming, demands for water in the region have increased from 10% to 20% percent. These observations along with the continuation of global warming indicate that grape growth with favorable quality is impossible without adopting adaptations to the future climate changes.

Preterm delivery is a complicated situation that its risk factors are different based on different seasons. One of the environmental factors which may be effective on the occurrence of preterm delivery is season. This study was conducted with aim to investigate seasonal pattern of preterm deliveries in Mashhad using ARIMA time series models. The Preterm delivery related data were collected during 2003 to 2013 from Women's Health Research Center and regarding the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and also the absence of trends in data, it was tried to assign goodness of fit to time series models. After selecting the models, the significance of parameters was investigated with the estimation of criterion error and t-values and then, the goodness of fit such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Ryan Joyner test were used for validation of the models. In addition, using the seasonal index (SI), the seasonal pattern of prevalence of preterm delivery was extracted. The results of this study indicated that ARMIMA model (1,1,1)×(0,0,1) was fitted as the best one for investigation of seasonal pattern of the prevalence of preterm delivery. In addition, among 4743, the age groups of 23-30 years had the highest rate of preterm delivery. The frequency of seasonal occurrence indicates that winter in December had the highest percentage of occurrence of preterm deliveries, and the lowest rate was related to spring. In general, preterm deliveries vary with seasonal changes, and environmental factors are significantly effective on the occurrence of this disease.