فهرست مطالب zahra karimi moughari

The purpose of this article is to redefine the concept of institution and introduce  the idea of transition duration in the process of institutional changes. One of the key features of  the  transition duration is the uncertainty it brings,  leading to the unpredictability in individual's behavior for each other. The concept of uncertainty and its implications were first  introduced in economic literature by John Maynard Keynes, who attributed its origin  to the “animal spirit” of man. In order to understand the reasons for the existence of the transition duration in institutional changes and its impact on policy-making, it is crucial to rethink the concept of uncertainty. However, in this research, the source of uncertainty is seen as intentional actions of human. In the 20th century, by accepting the Causal Closure of Classical Physics (CCCP), social science has evaded to study and discuss the first-person intentional actions and their effects on social phenomena. Practically, studying the effects of first-person intentional actions on economic and social phenomena requires departing from the CCCP. On the other hand, in recent years, the quantum decision-making  theory has emerged, which suggests that individual's behavior follows the laws of quantum physics. If human behavior follows the basic laws of quantum physics, then by applying idealistic interpretations of quantum theory, one can  redefine the individual's decision-making system in such a way to include the role of intentional actions and  the influence of the experimental background in  decision-making system. Therefore, this study  is purely theoretical in nature. The main presuppositions on which the arguments are based are: 1) Man is a social but utilitarian being who uses cost-benefit analysis in decision- making . 2) The model of  a person's decisions and their cost-benefit analysis has a quantum nature and does not follow the rules of classical physics.Applying the idealist  interpretation of the quantum theory, the present study intends to introduce a novel conceptual framework titled "The Quantum Holistic Phenomenological Approach" to analyze the nature of institutions and institutional changes based on its relationship with the first-person intentional actions, which stem from a quantum cost-benefit model. Based on this, first, a quantum model of the person's decision-making process has been introduced, in which the person's cognition is represented as a  the quantum wave function, and their intention as the cause of collapse, and their experience as  a  process of wave function collapse. This definition highlights two important features: Firstly, the impact of the individual's intentional actions and the experimental context on an individual’s decision-making process are taken into account. Secondly, a person's decisions are optimal from his(her) own point of view at that moment. But because of the dependence of the decision-making process on the intention of the individual and the experimental background, his(her) behavior has inherent uncertainty and is unpredictable for others. According to the nature of individual decision-making in the quantum model, which is accompanied by inherent uncertainty, institutions are the result of the intentional actions of individuals  sharing information with each other based on a cost-benefit model in a given empirical context. This is done to reduce the uncertainty of individual decisions for Others  and enable social coexistence. Also due to the dependency of the institutions on their practical base of formation, imitating the Heisenberg uncertainty principle in the quantum realm, experiences are categorized into two groups consistent and inconsistent. The consistent experiences are those with no external effects, which do not change the people's mental states and their information-sharing approach with others. Acceptation of the path dependency on the institution and some of their stability in our proposed model is due to the absence of the external effects of the consistent experiences. The inconsistent experiences are those with external effects, yielding changes in the information-sharing schemes between people. New and innovative experiences are considered inconsistent experiences because there is no record of them in the mind to share with others. From the perspective of the our theoretical approach, the institutional changes are stemmed from the external effects of pervasive inconsistent experiences that change the pattern of sharing information between people and as a result lead to disruption of the former institutions.The most important findings and achievements of the introduced theoretical framework compared to the new institutionalism are; the assumption of bounded rationality is rejected so that the foundation of the ubiquitous character of uncertainty in the world is not the individual's imperfect perception of reality, but it is the other's failure, as the third person, to find out individual's optimal choices. Institutions are established according to the intended individual's calculation of the cost-benefit, who decides to share how much of the information in their mind with others and to reduce his/her individuality to lowering the intrinsic uncertainty of their optimal decisions for others, making social coexistence possible. The institutions' function depends on their practical base of formation and individual's intention, especially the political leaders. The reason of institutional changes is the external effects of pervasive inconsistent experiences. Due to the external effects of those experiences, the former institutions become soft and do not work properly. Formation of the new institutions following the novel situation requires that the transition duration passes by. Governments need to engage directly in the rent distribution to form and stabilize the new institutions to reduce the time needed for the transition duration.According to new institutionalists, the best  institutions for leaving societies out of the trap of underdevelopment are those that restrict  the intentional actions of political leaders in distributing rent. In fact this  argument  is based on the assumption that individuals have an imperfect understanding of external reality. In such a world, what can lead to the gradual correction of the error of people's choices in conditions of uncertainty is the learning caused by competition in conditions of scarcity. However, the proposed  " Quantum Holistic Phenomenological Approach"  in this study reject the assumption of  imperfect understanding of reality by individuals. Our theoretical approach suggests a new perspective on  institutional changes, which aligns with the findings of the last two decades of studies about rent distribution  on the development process of countries. In fact  due to the political, social and economic consequences of the transition duration,  intentional actions of political leaders in the distribution of  rent is inevitable. Unlike the new institutionalists, our proposed theoretical framework does not make a general judgment about the limits and boundaries of these intentional actions or the most efficient form of institutions.  The optimality of leaders' intentional actions in allocating resources depends on the political, social and economic conditions in which institutions are formed, as well as the ideology of political leaders and the structure of the natural endowments of that society. Therefore, the focus should be on discussing the quality of these intentional actions, rather than limiting them.

The development of peri-urban areas, as one of the main concerns that includes various economic and social aspects, is one of the fields of attention of national governments and local governments. An arena that, with the expansion of global communications, has concentrated its field of action in unique narratives of cultural, social and geographical features. Attractive narratives that have taken responsibility for the development of diverse geographical locations and put the presentation of competitive advantage and identity components on the shoulders of local and regional micro-levels.

The research strategy used in this research is "grounded theory". Contextual theorizing uses a methodology that requires the simultaneous and chain-wise collection and analysis of data. In total, about 63 economic activists were interviewed in the mentioned areas, of which 58 interviews were conducted for appropriate research and reports. Finally, through the interviews conducted in this field, the narratives of the place's identity that are used in different economic sectors from production and trade to services for the development of businesses are received and With the proposed triple coding, an attempt is made to extract the mechanism from which economic actors try to benefit from the elements of place identity for the development of their economic income.

The answers obtained from this interview and coding process clearly explain that the components of place identity which are: "Language, food, sound and music, architecture and space-making, history, place, color and handicrafts" through the main category, "activism and advertising-media policies" by creating awareness and knowledge of products. [Place - Goods - Service] among the "audiences" or in a better word "customers" find improvement and economic prosperity. A strategy that, in a process model, leads to perception after creating awareness of the products in this stage and finally achieves a change in the behavior of the audience. Of course, the mentioned path is not simple and one-line, and two categories of "background conditions" and "intervening conditions" play a role step by step in this path in the direction of intensity and strength or creating obstacles:"Contextual conditions" are actually environmental platforms that provide the strength or weakness of this mechanism: "Demographic components" such as age and education, "family" as the main element transmitting historical and cultural heritage, "social capital" and the strength of the network of relationships based on it are among the contextual conditions. It is decided that the role-playing mechanism of place identity components in economic development must pass through this channel. "Intervening conditions" are types of external stimuli that can play a role in strengthening or weakening the mentioned mechanism. Intervening conditions in this mechanism can be divided into three parts: "immigration and cultural interactions", "urban-institutional policies", "taste-making cultural consumption".However, the main category that has been left out of the coding process in the mechanism of benefiting from the components of place identity in the direction of economic development is "activism and advertising-media policies". which plays a role in both individual and collective dimensions. A category whose role is more important than anything else in the semantic link with the commercial brand. A commercial brand means creating value through strengthening and representing the assets of a place in a coherent way, which is presented in an image and narrative of that place. A commercial brand is actually the sale of stories [narrative assets] that are made of material assets. The key insight in this view is that a place like a city can be considered as a product. Or, in a more pioneering stage, a city is a collection of various products that can be made into extensive exchanges by processing their raw material in the form of narrative products. And in this way, a city can take advantage of its talents and take the path of its development by relying on its capabilities.

Therefore, what can be important in the process of local economic development are the narratives that are presented about the identity of the desired place, because value emerges through narratives. Some narratives are more attractive and some have less motivating features. In this way, the object of exchange is "narrative" and the value of goods is measured by the narratives that support them. As a result, the task of value creation is the responsibility of the narration. The remarkable issue is that narratives are always evolving and unpredictable; As the images of the place, products or lifestyle change, the relationship of the product, place and narrative are also re-evaluated and reconstructed. As a result, what is important in the process of studying the role of place identities in local economic development is to pay attention to the mechanism that transforms place identities into a tool for the production of added value and finally economic development. Identities that, as a catalyst, cultural, geographical, historical, etc. characteristics of a place create value in the form of narratives for manufactured goods and services and they become a tool for economic development at the local level.

According to principles 29, 31, and 43 of the Constitution of Iran, one of the goals of the Islamic Republic is to deal with poverty and economic and social inequality in the country, and for this purpose, two strategies have been followed in parallel after the revolution. One of these strategies was the extension and side assistance of the government to fight against poverty and deprivation. In this context, the government implemented policies and plans in the form of economic and social development plans. Therefore, according to this necessity, the aim of the current research is to investigate the impact of economic growth on poverty: comparative studies of the first and third development plans. The results of the estimation of the research model based on the autoregression method with distributed lag indicate that economic growth (from 1978 to 2021) has a positive and significant effect on poverty in the long term, while economic growth (the first and third development plans) and oil rents have a negative and significant effect on poverty, and social security expenses have no effect on poverty in the long term. Therefore, it can be said that economic growth alone is not enough to deal with poverty, but along with the dynamic growth process, improved infrastructure for society (including the poor) and institutional reforms should be implemented in parallel.

Economic and political factors can reduce inequality or can gradually diminish households' consumption and increase inequality. Considering the significant difference in the political environment and economic policies in the First and Second plans, the income inequality was not the same in these two periods. This research compares the impact of economic and political factors on income inequality in the First and Second development plans using two quantitative and descriptive models. The quantitative model used the ARDL and time series data of 1984-2020. This model uses the variables such as government debt growth to banking sector, liquidity growth, short-term external debt growth, labor productivity, corruption index and the dummy variable for the first and second plans. In the qualitative model, the most important economic policies and political factors affecting income inequality, which directly or indirectly affect through different channels, are analyzed in two plans. The results of both qualitative and quantitative models show that the income inequality has a negative relationship with liquidity growth and labor productivity; meanwhile the income inequality has a positive ‎relationship with government debt growth to the the banking sector, liquidity growth with a lag, short-term external debt and corruption.

Institutional development of people, which is the subject of study in this research, as one of the main concerns that includes various economic, social and cultural dimensions, is one of the areas of attention of national governments and local governments. In this study, using the "grounded theory" strategy, about 63 economic activists were interviewed in the field under study, of which 58 interviews were suitable for conducting research and were reported. The answers obtained from this interview and coding process clearly explain that the components of place identity through the main category, namely "Grassroots' creativity and innovation" with the realization of satisfaction with the products [among the "audiences" or In other words, "customers" achieve the three main goals of financial productivity, social solidarity and cultural determination. A strategy that results in a process model [cognition-perception-behavior]. Of course, the mentioned path is not simple and one-line, and "background conditions" and "intervening conditions" play a role in this path step by step: "background conditions" are actually the environmental platforms that are the fields of power and or they provide the weakness of this mechanism, which include: "value components", "advertising strategies", "human capital", "institutional policies", "financial potentials". "Intervening conditions" are types of external stimuli that can play a role in strengthening or weakening the mentioned mechanism. Intervening conditions in this mechanism can be divided into three parts: "class representation", "localization", "quality", "taste-making cultural consumption".

“The East Asian Development Experience: The Miracle, The Crisis and The Future” is written by Ha Joon Chang and is translated into Persian by Leila Sadat Fatemi Nasab. The book explains the causes of successful development in East Asian countries. These countries which were poor and backward after the Second World War, during a few decades, became newly industrializing countries. There are different views about the causes of the development of East Asian countries. Some experts believe that the major cause is their acceptance of market mechanisms and export orientation. While others emphasize the governments' role in supporting infant industries and encouraging the private sector exports. Chang shows that free-market mechanism was not the cause of their success. Conversely, governments' conditional supporting measures alongside effective supervision on the private sector economic performance, and emphasis on exports had a major impact in the development of the East Asian countries. “The East Asian Development Experience: The Miracle, The Crisis and The Future” is a very useful book for Iranian researchers and policymakers in the current situation. Fatemi Nasab's translation of the book is very good but there are a few problems in translating special words that seem to be related to the lack of deep knowledge in economics.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) released an important report entitled “Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality: A Global Perspective” (Dabla Noris et.al. 2015). Publication of this paper by IMF, that has been the advocate of market mechanism and the minimal state for the last 3 decades, created wide spread reactions among policy makers, experts and economists all around the world. This paper is discussed in Iranian press as well. The paper studies on the impact of income inequality on earning new income and assets as well as better education and health. Due to empirical evidence, the paper concludes, inequality can’t stimulate economic growth. Therefore authors recommend policies to reduce income inequality.

Trust is one of the most significant factors of social capital theory that indicates the importance of social relationships. While the existing literature in Iran is predominantly based the society-centered approach, the institution-centered approach has received a little attention. The present study contributes to filling this gap in the existing literature. Methodologically, the research findings presented and discussed in this paper are based on a questionnaire-based survey, which includes 384 individuals aged 5- 65 years old in Shiraz. The data have been analyzed with IBM SPSS. Cronbach's alpha of the indicators is above 0.7. According to the research findings, an individual’s attitude toward the quality and performance of governmental institutions explains 54% of trust variable changes. Furthermore, the findings confirm that social trust is positively impacted by such determinants as the security feeling, institutional trust, attitude toward truth-telling, attitude toward promise-keeping and attitude toward fairness. However, the findings of this study do not support a significant impact of attitude toward solidarity variable on social trust.

Orthodox microeconomics decision-making models are based on optimization but in the real world, most of decisions are institutionally and based on habits, rules and predetermined solutions. In this paper we have combined some concepts from cognitive-behavioral economics and new institutional economics to characterize institutional decision-making. Evidences from cognitive and behavioral economics show that the mental costs of direct optimization, even in simplest forms, are high and agents tend to make decisions institutionally to reduce this mental costs. Coase and Williamson argue that "non-zero transaction costs" can result “hierarchy” replaced instead of “market” and similarly we argue that "non-zero decision making costs" can result “institutional decision making” replaced instead of “direct optimization”. Religious behavior is a kind of institutional behavior (following religious rules and habits) and considering this view that institutional decision making and direct optimization both are important and both have distinctive roles in decision making process can influence microfoundations of Islamic economics.

Neoclassical economics is considered to be the mainstream of educational and research programs in economics, and other approaches are largely on the brink of these programs. The main discussion and discussion of this article is whether the combination of Islamic economics should also be the same, that is, whether the emphasis of Islamic economics should be on the combination of Islamic teachings with neoclassical literature. In institutional literature, with emphasis on neo-classical optimization constraints, "institutional decisions" and "transaction costs" are important. The main characteristic of religious behavior "institutional act" within the framework of the rules and structures of religious and "reducing transaction costs" have the core functionality of jurisprudence and Islamic ethics is, from this perspective, similarity and congruence form of literature institutional and teachings Aslamyta largely self-evident It will look. The purpose of this article is to deepen and redefine the meaning of this concept in a new way. In this context, and analytical and descriptive approach to comparative literature, the neoclassical and institutional areas of microeconomic we will and will try to emphasize the importance and role of "decision-making institutions", and the importance of reducing "transaction costs" in the economy, explain the proper analysis for It is arguable that economists, compared to neoclassical literature, have much more operational and uniformity in the construction of the combined economic component of Islam. Accordingly, it is necessary to pay special attention to econometric literature in the curriculum of Islamic economics and economics, along with econometric-pedagogical education.

The share of taxes to total public revenues differs among countries, and the main factors that have been discussed as the cause of the difference in the tax structure are the level of development of countries that are typically represented by gross domestic product per capita, productive expertise, or the structure of the economy; external factors such as the level of foreign direct investment and trade. The amount of public debt and public policies, including exchange rates, inflation and fiscal policies, government efficiency and organizational factors, such as political stability, accountability and transparency, civil and political rights, education levels, general expenses for education, etc, are also determinants of tax revenue. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of development indicators on the tax revenues of Iran during the period of 1979-2017 based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) method. Based on the results of this study, the increase of per capita GDP in the country has a positive effect on the ratio of direct taxes to GDP, but has a negative and significant effect on the ratio of indirect tax to GDP. Also, the impact of the human development index on the ratio of direct taxes and indirect taxes to GDP is positive and significantand the effect of the index of inequality of income distribution, that is the Gini coefficient, on the ratio of direct taxes and indirect taxes to GDP, was negative and significant. Finally, the effect of the combined development index on the ratio of direct taxes to GDP as well as the ratio of indirect tax to GDP has been positive and significant. Also, the country's oil revenues have a negative and significant effect on the ratio of direct taxes and indirect taxes to GDP.

One of the most effective ways of realizing social equity is to provide equal opportunities for individuals to access education and to achieve educational equity. An important aspect of educational equity appears in the labor market and by the end of the education.  The processes of finding a job in the labor market and wage determination guide the efforts of individuals for gaining effective education. If the labor market does not send appropriate signals to the education system, the allocation of resources in the education system would not be correct. In this paper, the relationship between educational inequality and employment rates in Iranian provinces is examined by using Generalized Momentum Method (GMM) for a panel data of 28 provinces during 1380 - 1392. The employment rates and Gini coefficients of education are calculated from the income-expenditure data, published by the Statistical Centre of Iran. The results of this study show that average educational Gini coefficient, educational inequality, in deprived provinces is higher than rich provinces; and there is a negative and significant relationship between employment rate and educational inequality. In all provinces the employment rates has increased while the Gini coefficients has decreased.

Alignment of industrial development and differences in the regional development has increased the importance of investigation of spatial aspects and of the main drivers in regional development that it is a factor in the spread of inequalities in the regions of each country. This study aimed to assess factors affecting regional development using spatial econometric model and it analyze the regional development problem in the provinces of Iran. For this purpose, the two-sided neighborhood matrix and spatial error model are used for 30 provinces during 1392. The results indicated a significant influence of political factors on increase or decrease the level of regional development disparities between provinces, particularly fiscal policy. Industrial investment as one of the important variables in the development and structural transition has a significant positive influence on regional development and because of the impact that rising income levels, backward and forward linkages and value chain can be a factor convergence is affecting regional development.

This paper considers the causes of the differences in economic growth by the interactive effect of institutional quality and the development of the banking sector. For this purpose, 24 upper middle-income countries were selected and their financial development and institutional quality for the period 1996 to 2015 were derived. The weighted average of three financial development indexes was calculated by the principal component analysis method. Then, GMM-Sys estimator, in the form of conditional convergence model, was used to calculate the interactive effect of institutional quality and financial development on economic growth. The results show that financial development has a negative effect on economic growth in selected countries, but the interactive effect of institutional quality and financial development decreases this negative effect; as institutional quality along with its positive effect on economic growth, reduces the negative impact of the banking sector development. Also, in oil exporting countries, the institutional quality has lower effect on economic growth; and financial development has more unfavorable impact on economic growth. Finally, to make a positive impact of financial development on economic growth, an effectiveness threshold of institutional quality is calculated.

Investment spillover effects include regional growth factors around the developed centers, which this study aimed investigate effects of industrial investment spillover in provinces of Iran and the quantifying of these effects. Accordingly, it uses the spatial econometrics to explore the indirect effects or industrial investment spillover. The results indicate that provinces with a higher gravity index, which are respectively Tehran, Isfahan, Khorasan Razavi, Khuzestan and Fars with a coefficient of 0.152, 0.090, 0.085, 0.083 and 0.077 respectively, have more industrial investment spillover than other provinces. In contrast, provinces with more great geographical distance from developed provinces such as Ardabil, Sistan and Baluchestan, northern Khorasan and Ilam, respectively with coefficients of 0.029, 0.031, 0.037 and 0.038, have less benefit of industrial investment spillover Compared to other regions. Also, industrial investment spillover effects for different regions, very different from each other. As for some provinces, the indirect effects are much less than direct effects and for some provinces, the indirect effects are close to direct effects. This can be due to geographical location, politics, government regulation and exposure to developed provinces.

In the decent work literature abolishing child labor is one of the main elements of rights at work. According to the convention 138 of the International Labor Organization any form of work that harms physical mental or moral wellbeing of the child or threatens the child’s morality is considered child labor and must not be done by any children less than 18 years of age. However in many developing countries due to extreme poverty and unfavorable labor market conditions a considerable number of households are obligated to be content with their children’s participation in the labor market. In this paper the effects of the household’s characteristics on the probability and the amount of child labor is studied. In order to do so the characteristics of the child mother head of the household and the household are considered as the explaining variables. The model applied in this study is an IV-TOBIT regression model. The child’s participation in income yielding activities for the household results in an endogeneity bias in the TOBIT model. Therefore the head of the household’s net income is used as an Instrumental Variable. The data in this study are extracted from the Households’ Income–Expenditure Survey of the year 2013. The group under study are the children between 6 and 18 years of age. Near 25 thousand children were studied. According to the results being male has a significant positive effect on the increase in the hours of work done by a child and its probability. Furthermore the head’s activity status and employment status and higher education levels of the mother decrease child labor.

In this paper we first intend to examine the probability of falling into the realm of child labor by using conditional probability theorem. Furthermore, we will compare the extent of each factor’s effect on boys and girls using a TOBIT regression model. Finally we will analyze aspects of Iran’s labor market to assess the future ahead of the children who work at present. As the results will show, the probability of not attending school conditional on being male is 0.081, whereas the same probability conditional on being female is 0.12. More probability scores are estimated in the paper. Moreover, the results from the TOBIT regression shows that in general boys are more affected than the girls by the same factors. Also, based on the macro statistics published by Iran’s Statistical Center, the graduation of numerous people from graduate schools combined with the low and slow rate of economic growth makes it quite difficult to find a decent work in the country. As a result, the skilled labor force will be content with accepting low wage jobs which are more suitable for the unskilled workers. Therefore, those who left school earlier in their lives will face several problems in the future.

Regional inequality is a multidimensional phenomenon and includes different areas of economic, social and cultural. Therefore for any country is necessary to introduce a multidimensional composite index for the measurement of regional inequality. This study aimed to determine the level of regional inequality of Iranian provinces and to identify the main determinants of the inequality, to introduce a combined index for regional inequality measurement. To this end, this study has selected 25 indicators in 5 different dimensions (economic, knowledge and human capital, infrastructure, social-cultural and environmental) and it has collected data relating to the years 2001 and 2013. Also, by applying innovation, it has used two-step principal component analysis. The results show that regional disparities are declining in period under review. In this period, Provinces of Tehran, Yazd and Semnan have had the highest development level, respectively, and Sistan-Baluchistan province also has been fixed at the end place. The results showthat in provinces with higher development level. Economic and human capital indicators were main causes of inequalities in the regional development. Also high population density has forced the government to invest more in infrastructures, health and education in more developed provinces. On the other hand,having knowledge and investment spillovers is an effective factor in development of Tehran’s neighboring provinces.

Lending is a principal business activity for most commercial banks. The loan portfolio is typically the largest asset and the predominant source of revenue. As a result, it is one of the greatest sources of risk to a bank’s safety and soundness.
Credit risk is the risk of loss due to a debtor's non-payment of a loan or other line of credit (either the principal or interest (coupon) or both). Defaulting occurs when a debtor has not fulfilled his or her legal obligations according to the debt contract, or has violated a loan covenant (condition) of the debt contract, which might occur with all debt obligations including bonds, mortgages, loans, and promissory notes. Since financial innovation and derivatives grow rapidly in competitive financial industry, credit risk measurement and management become essentially important.
Credit risk is the primary financial risk in the banking system and exists in virtually all income-producing activities. How a bank selects and manages its credit risk is critically important to its performance over time; indeed, capital depletion through loan losses has been the proximate cause of most institution failures. Identifying and rating credit risk is the essential first step in managing it effectively.
Well-managed credit risk rating systems promote bank safety and soundness by facilitating informed decision making. Rating systems measure credit risk and differentiate individual credits and groups of credits by the risk they pose. This allows bank management and examiners to monitor changes and trends in risk levels. The process also allows bank management to manage risk to optimize returns.
The consistent use of analytic credit risk has many advantages. It improves an institution’s risk assessment time, speed, accuracy, consistency, bad debt reduction and prioritization of collections. Using analytic credit scoring, an institution can review its entire receivable portfolios in the same time as it would take to review just one account by traditional methods. Analytic credit risk assures accuracy since the review process is mostly free of human error. It offers consistency, by using the same set of rules and weighted variables over the entire portfolio. Scoring permits regular reviews of the entire account base, thereby, quickly and efficiently identifying accounts that require immediate attention, and isolating customers who warrant human intervention. The net effect is a substantial reduction in risk assessment time and a more systematic approach to collection.This paper examines the factors affecting the credit risk of real customers of Tejarat bank of Neka.The data that is used in this paper was extracted from 2545 loan files of real customers of Tejarat Bank of Neka who had got credit facilities during the years 1381 to 1390, and logistic regression was used to evaluate the data.
In this study, first we introduced the factors affecting credit risk of real customers of Tejarat bank and then defined the risk and presented the methods that can measure the risk. Then we extracted the data and used the Eviews software to estimate our model and finally analyzed the results.
The statistical techniques used in this research are a logit method to estimate the probability functions. Logit model is one of the easiest statistical modelsthat is based on the analysis logit model (logistic), the financial ratios and other quantitative and qualitative variables for predicting the risk of non-repayment of loans are used. In this model, the probability of failure is showed in normal distribution: This function is ideal for all levels of Z values between zero and one.
Variables include the dependent variable (including 2 cases: will the real customers pay or not pay their loan) and independent variables (including 6 variables that have an impact on the repayment).One of these independent variables is the period of repayment of loans or facilities and another one is the amount of loans that customers have got and also the rate of interest of loans and also collateral types that is got for thoes loans and two final variabels are mandatory or non-mandatory loans variable and loan types variable.We can see all these results in table below:
The result of this study shows that loans repayment period, interest rates of loans, and collateral types have significant effect on the probability of default; but mandatory or non-mandatory loans and loan amount do not have significant effect on the probability of default. Despite the significance of the coefficients, according to the sign of the coefficients, as expected, we found that the probability of default is reduced by increasing the loan repayment period and with a decrease in interest rates getting banking deposits as collateral for loans have the greatest negative impact on loan default regarding the loan types, Gharz-ol- Hasaneh and Mosharekat loans have the highest and lowest impacts on default possibility.

The subject of this paper is measuring institutional quality and evaluatingits relationship with per capita economic growth in 20 MENA countries. For estimating growth models, panel data method was used during (2002-2010). For measuring institutional quality at first six indices of good governance have been used in six growth models. The results have shown that only regulatory quality have positive and significant relation with economic growth. Whereas the coefficients of other institutional variables including control of corruption and political stability are negative and the others including rule of law, governance effectiveness and voice and accountability are positive but insignificant. Then another model was estimated by using good governance index which was derived from combining six upper indices by using principle component analysis (PCA). The results showed positive relationship but significant at the 0.10 percent level. In the final analysis a new institutional index is derived by combining three institutional variables which had positive coefficient into the one composite index by using PCA. New index has bigger positive coefficient and significant at the 0.01 percent level rather than its sub measures (regulatory quality, voice and accountability, rule of law) and alsothan good governance index.

Social cohesion represents the interaction and linkage of the society، is a most important reason of different institutional performance to achieve economic development. The purpose of this paper is to estimate social cohesion and the relation of social cohesion with economic development for 85 selected developed and developing countries in 2010. In this research the social cohesion index have calculated based on “fuzzy” logic and “social capital” and “equality of opportunity” components using MATLAB. As factors affecting social cohesion cannot be easily quantified، Fuzzy logic is a way to work with imprecise variables. The result of this research shows positive and significant correlation between social cohesion and economic development components.

Real exchange rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variables which affects various economic sectors. As the effect of real exchange rate variation is not equal in different sectors and due to importance of industrial development in economic development of country، this paper have investigated the effect of real exchange rate changes on 8 manufacturing subsectors over the period 1353-1390. The structural time series approach has been used in this paper. The results show that exchange rate devaluation has different long run effects on subsectors of manufactories. So that، those manufactories which had dependence on import of inputs and foreign capital goods benefited and those manufactories with lower dependence on foreign inputs destroyed.

Capital accumulation is one of the first requirements of development. Capital accumulation methods play a crucial role in the governance and institutional structures. Globalization has a positive impact on the world production and employment. A large part of this effect can be seem in developing country، especially in textile، clothing and leather industries، whereas in many industrialized countries that were concentrated on high value added goods and services، production of such labour intensive activities is declined and a large amount of related jobs has been destroyed. However، all developing countries are not able to have an active presence in highly competitive global markets. During the past three decades، Turkey has increased her share in the world textile and clothing production and exports، while Iran has lost a large part of its production and employment in these sectors. This paper investigates the causes of great changes of competitiveness of textile industries in Turkey and Iran by an institutional approach; as competitive capability in textile industry has been affected by chain of structural causes during the time and passed trajectory of industrial development in these countries created different institutional capacity. Since mid 1970s، these countries implemented two different strategies that the outcome is observable in the textile industries'' performance. Dependence on oil revenues and distribution of oil rent prevented Iran from formation of competitive industries، whereas efforts for increased presence in international markets، particularly in textile and clothing، led Turkey to boost exports.

Given the importance of role of women in today’s world, improvement of their employment and guiding them through labor market will provide an opportunity for society to benefit from this great potential work force. Thus identification of factors that make the conditions of cooperation of women in economic and social areas has main priority. Present study investigates the impact of some variables including Percentage of girls enrolled in primary, secondary and higher education, share of value-added of industry in GDP (development process indicator), square of the value added of industry (development index), marriage to divorce ratio (socio – cultural index), government share of GDP (size of government index) on women employment in 1968 to 2011. This research uses artificial neural network to analyze data. Findings indicate that in this time period increase in development of the country and proliferation of women education are the most influential factors among women as work force.

In 2005 Afghanistan has been the origin country of the largest refugees, by about a quarter of the global refugee population, who were mainly living in Pakistan and Iran. Almost all Afghan labourers are working illegally in Iran and have not work permission. They are unskilled and cheap workers, accepting any low payed job they are offered. Afghan refugees increased the supply of labour force in Iran for more than 2 decades. So wage increase for low skill workers has been very slow, specially in construction work, where Afghan workers have a large share. The results of our research show that Afghan workers have been attracted to the prosperous provinces where the unskilled workers where most wanted. As the workers can move easily in the country, the presence of Afghan workers in Tehran, Isfahan and Khorasan, has not caused higher unemployment rate neither in cities nor in villages of these provinces, however unemployment rate in the country has been raised. If Afghan immigrants leave Iran, unemployment rate will be lower and the wage rate for unskilled workers will rise considerably.