covid-19 pandemic
در نشریات گروه علوم انسانی-
فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی، پیاپی 148 (پاییز 1403)، صص 363 -385در دوران همه گیری کووید-19، در بسیاری از کشورها، بخش اشتغال بانوان اثر بیشتری نسبت به بخش اشتغال مردان پذیرفت. برخی از پژوهشگران این رخداد را به دلیل کاهش در بخش عرضه بانوان به دلیل تعطیلی مراکز نگهداری کودکان و غیرحضوری شدن مدارس می دانند و برخی این موضوع را به دلیل کاهش در بخش تقاضای نیروی کار بانوان به دلیل آسیب بخش خدمات می دانند. در این پژوهش با استفاده از ماتریس گذار نشان دادیم که خانوارهایی که بانوان در آن در دوره قبل از همه گیری شاغل بوده اند (گروه اول) کاهش جابجایی درآمدی بیشتری نسبت به خانوارهایی که فقط مردان در آن شاغل بوده اند (گروه دوم)، در دوره همه گیری داشته اند. سپس با استفاده از روش لاجیت رتبه بندی شده ناپیوستگی رگرسیون دریافتیم که در دوره همه گیری احتمال حضور گروه اول در پنجک های درآمدی پایین تر نسبت به گروه دوم بیشتر بوده است.کلید واژگان: تحرک درآمدی، اشتغال بانوان، جابجایی درآمدی، رکود بانوان، کووید-19The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as a profound global crisis with extensive impacts on social and economic structures worldwide. This study examines the shifts in income mobility within Iranian households, focusing particularly on those with employed women prior to the onset of the pandemic. Utilizing household income and expenditure data from 2017 to 2019, this research employs advanced econometric models such as the regression discontinuity design and transition matrix analysis to explore the economic repercussions of the pandemic. The findings reveal a significant disparity in income mobility between households with employed women and those with only employed men. Households with employed women experienced greater financial instability and a higher likelihood of descending into lower income brackets compared to their male counterparts. The pandemic disproportionately affected sectors with high female employment rates, such as the service industry, exacerbating the economic vulnerability of these households. In-depth analysis indicates that the closure of schools and childcare facilities, coupled with the downturn in service sector demand, are pivotal factors that intensified the economic decline for women in the workforce. These sectors traditionally employ a higher percentage of women, and the sudden reduction in demand has led to a notable increase in female unemployment rates, further impacting household income stability. In conclusion, The insights provided in this study not only contribute to a deeper understanding of the pandemic's impacts but also inform future policy-making aimed at fostering economic resilience and equality.Keywords: Covid-19 Pandemic, Economic Analysis, Income Mobility, Women's Employment
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شرکت هایی که در وضعیت درماندگی مالی قرار دارند، به دنبال راه هایی برای کاهش خروج وجه نقد ناشی از مالیات هستند. صرفه جویی مالیاتی یک منبع تامین مالی داخلی است که با تشدید محدودیت های مالی در طول دوره شیوع کووید19 اهمیت آن برای شرکت ها دوچندان می شود؛ ازاین رو، این شرکت ها با احتمال بیشتری درگیر اجتناب مالیاتی می شوند. هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی تاثیر درماندگی مالی بر اجتناب مالیاتی و چگونگی این تاثیر در دوره شیوع کووید19 است. داده های پژوهش شامل 162 شرکت پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران طی دوره 1396 تا 1401است. به منظور برازش مدل های رگرسیونی پژوهش از روش حداقل مربعات تعمیم یافته استفاده شده است. یافته ها حاکی از آن است که درماندگی مالی بر اجتناب مالیاتی تاثیر مثبت و معناداری دارد؛ بنابراین، در کل دوره پژوهش، شرکت هایی که درماندگی مالی بیشتر داشته اند، بیشتر درگیر اجتناب مالیاتی بوده اند؛ به علاوه، شیوع کووید19 در رابطه بین درماندگی مالی و اجتناب مالیاتی اثر تعدیلی معناداری ندارد. پژوهش حاضر ضمن توسعه ادبیات موجود درباره تاثیر درماندگی مالی بر اجتناب مالیاتی، به درک اثر بحران های مالی در نتیجه شیوع کووید19 بر این رابطه کمک می کند. برخلاف انتظارات حاصل از فرضیه ها، یافته ها حاکی از تاثیرنداشتن معنادار کووید19 بر رابطه بین درماندگی مالی و اجتناب مالیاتی است؛ ازاین رو، انجام سایر پژوهش ها در این حوزه با در نظر گرفتن اثر فاکتورهای خاص دوران شیوع کووید19 ازجمله اعطای بخشودگی مالیاتی می تواند به توسعهادبیات کمک کند.کلید واژگان: درماندگی مالی، اجتناب مالیاتی، کووید 19، بخشودگی مالیاتیFinancially distressed firms are actively seeking ways to minimize tax-related cash outflows. During the COVID-19 pandemic, as financial constraints intensified, tax savings emerged as a vital source of internal financing for these firms. As a result, financially distressed firms are more likely to adopt tax avoidance strategies. This study aimed to investigate the impact of financial distress on tax avoidance and how this relationship manifested during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research sample consisted of 162 firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) from 2017 to 2022. The findings revealed that financial distress had a positive and significant effect on tax avoidance, indicating that firms experiencing greater financial distress were more likely to engage in tax avoidance throughout the study period. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic did not significantly moderate the relationship between financial distress and tax avoidance. While this study contributed to the existing literature on the effects of financial distress on tax avoidance, it also enhanced our understanding of how financial crises, particularly those resulting from COVID-19, influenced this relationship. Moreover, contrary to the initial research hypotheses, the findings suggested that COVID-19 did not significantly impact the relationship between financial distress and tax avoidance.
Keywords: Financial Distress, Tax Avoidance, COVID-19 Pandemic, Tax Discount.
JEL Classification: H26, G32, M41, M48
IntroductionIn times of financial distress, firms often deplete a significant portion of their cash reserves, exacerbating their financial challenges. This state of distress drives companies to seek ways to reduce tax-related cash outflows, increasing the likelihood that financially distressed firms will engage in tax avoidance (Brondolo, 2009). Several studies (e.g., Edwards et al., 2016; Richardson et al., 2015; Mokhtari, 2019; Hajiha et al., 2017) provide evidence supporting a positive relationship between financial distress and tax avoidance. The COVID-19 pandemic has introduced unprecedented economic challenges and uncertainties for firms worldwide. In response to these uncertainties, managers are compelled to develop various strategies, with tax avoidance emerging as a preferred method for generating internal cash flows. This study aimed to examine the impact of financial distress on tax avoidance and investigate the moderating effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the relationship between financial distress and tax avoidance. Our research contributed significantly to the existing literature. First, our findings enhanced the body of research on tax avoidance among financially distressed firms (e.g., Edwards et al., 2016; Dang & Tran, 2021; Sadjiarto et al., 2020; Putri & Chariri, 2017; Nugroho et al., 2020; Mokhtari, 2019; Qavi Panjeh & Gharib, 2018; Hajiha et al., 2017). Second, by considering both macroeconomic and firm-level factors that influenced corporate tax strategies, this study deepened our understanding of how firms utilized tax avoidance as a strategy during periods of uncertainty. This study examined the following hypotheses:H1: Financial distress is associated with tax avoidance.
H2: The COVID-19 pandemic moderates the relationship between financial distress and tax avoidance.
Materials &MethodsData were collected from 162 firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) between 2015 and 2022, resulting in a total of 972 firm-year observations. The sample excluded firms from the insurance, financial, and banking sectors. Tax avoidance was measured as the difference between a firm's cash taxes paid adjusted for any tax refunds receivable and the product of its pretax book income and the statutory tax rate. This measure was then scaled by the book value of the firm's assets. A firm was considered to engage in tax avoidance when its cash taxes paid were less than its pretax income multiplied by the statutory tax rate. Since part of the tax paid in the current period might pertain to taxes determined in prior periods, the tax expense reported in the income statement was used in place of cash taxes paid for this analysis. Financial distress was assessed using the Altman Z Score. The COVID-19 pandemic served as the moderating variable represented as a dummy variable with a value of 1 for the COVID-19 period and zero otherwise. The years 2019 and 2020 were designated as the COVID-19 outbreak period. To test the research hypotheses, regression models were estimated using the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimator.
FindingsTable 1 presents the results of the GLS regression analysis regarding the impact of financial distress on tax avoidance, as well as the moderating effect of COVID-19 on this relationship. Column 1 shows the effect of financial distress on tax avoidance. The findings indicated that the coefficient for financial distress was positive and statistically significant, suggesting that financial distress was associated with increased tax avoidance. Furthermore, the results revealed that the coefficient for the interaction term (COVID*FD) was not statistically significant, indicating that the COVID-19 variable did not have a significant effect on the relationship between financial distress and tax avoidance. Consequently, the model estimation results did not support our second hypothesis.
Discussion &ConclusionTax avoidance is a strategy used to minimize tax liabilities. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence suggest that financially distressed firms have a stronger incentive to engage in tax avoidance as tax savings can provide an alternative source of financing. Furthermore, during crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the significance of tax savings increases for firms facing heightened financial challenges. This study investigated the moderating effect of COVID-19 on the relationship between financial distress and tax avoidance. The findings indicated that financial distress positively affected tax avoidance, supporting the notion that financially distressed firms are more likely to adopt tax avoidance strategies. These results are consistent with previous theoretical frameworks and empirical studies, including Edwards et al. (2016), Dang and Tran (2021), Mills and Newberry (2005), Sadjiarto et al. (2020), Putri and Chariri (2017), Nugroho et al. (2020), Richardson et al. (2015), Hasan et al. (2017), Akamah et al. (2021), Dyreng and Markle (2016), Hajiha et al. (2017), and Mokhtari (2019). Moreover, while several studies indicated that firms adopt aggressive tax strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of uncertainty (Lee et al., 2021; Guenther et al., 2019; Huang et al., 2017), this study found that the COVID-19 outbreak did not significantly moderate the relationship between financial distress and tax avoidance. The contributions of this study enrich the growing body of literature on corporate tax strategies during times of crisis. The findings have important implications for both corporate managers and investors. For corporate managers, the results underscore the importance of tax avoidance strategies. When considering tax avoidance, managers should weigh the benefits, such as reduced tax liabilities and increased cash flow, against potential costs, including audit expenses, penalties, and reputational damage that may arise.Keywords: Financial Distress, Tax Avoidance, COVID-19 Pandemic, Tax Discount -
هدف
در سال های اخیر، ویروس کووید-19 پیامدهای چشمگیر و قابل توجهی را بر حوزه های مختلف از جمله بازارهای سرمایه و اقتصاد جهانی وارد کرده است. هدف این پژوهش بررسی تاثیر کیفیت حسابرسی بر رابطه بین مدیریت سود با عملکرد مالی شرکت ها طی دوران همه گیری کووید-19 است.
روش شناسیبه منظور آزمون فرضیه های پژوهش، تعداد 106 شرکت از جامعه شرکت های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران برای دوره زمانی 1390 تا 1400 غربال شدند و طبق مدل های رگرسیون چندگانه و با استفاده از داده های ترکیبی مبتنی بر مشاهده های سال-شرکت آزمون شدند.
یافته هایافته ها نشان دادند همه گیری کووید-19 بر عملکرد مالی شرکت ها، مدیریت سود مبتنی بر اقلام حسابداری تعهدی و اعتبار حسابرس تاثیرگذار است، اما بر مدیریت سود مبتنی بر فعالیت های واقعی و چرخش حسابرس اثر معنادار نداشته است. همچنین مدیریت سود رابطه معناداری با عملکرد مالی شرکت ها دارد. اعتبار حسابرس بر رابطه بین مدیریت سود مبتنی بر اقلام حسابداری تعهدی و عملکرد مالی شرکت ها تاثیر ندارد، اما بر رابطه بین مدیریت سود مبتنی بر فعالیت های واقعی و عملکرد مالی شرکت ها تاثیر منفی و معناداری دارد. چرخش حسابرس بر رابطه بین مدیریت سود مبتنی بر اقلام حسابداری تعهدی و عملکرد مالی شرکت ها تاثیر مثبت و معناداری دارد، اما بر رابطه بین مدیریت سود مبتنی بر فعالیت های واقعی و عملکرد مالی شرکت ها تاثیری دیده نشد.
دانش افزایی:
این پژوهش شکاف موجود درخصوص تاثیر بحران های مالی که مورد اخیر آن همه گیری کووید-19 بود، بر عملکرد مالی شرکت ها و کیفیت حسابرسی در این دوران را تا حدامکان پوشش می دهد. همچنین انگیزه های مدیران جهت دستکاری سود و ارائه تصویری مطلوبی از خود به سرمایه گذاران را با بررسی ارتباط انواع مدیریت سود با عملکرد مالی بررسی می نماید.
کلید واژگان: عملکرد مالی، کیفیت حسابرسی، مدیریت سود، همه گیری کووید-19.PurposeIn recent years, the COVID-19 virus has brought significant consequences to various fields, including capital markets and the global economy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of audit quality on the relationship between earnings management and financial performance of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the COVID-19 pandemic.
MethodologyTo test the hypotheses of the research, a sample consisting of 106 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange was collected for the period 2011 to 2021, and the results were analyzed based on the multiple regression model and using panel data.
FindingsThe findings showed that the COVID-19 pandemic has an impact on the financial performance of companies, accrual earnings management and auditor reputation, but it has not had a significant effect on real earnings management and auditor tenure. Earnings management also has a significant relationship with the financial performance of companies. Auditor reputation does not affect the relationship between accrual earnings management and financial performance of companies, but it has a negative and significant effect on the relationship between accrual earnings management and financial performance of companies. Auditor tenure has a positive and significant effect on the relationship between accrual earnings management and financial performance of companies, but it does not affect the relationship between real earnings management and financial performance of companies.
OriginalityThis research covers the existing gap regarding the impact of financial crises, the last of which was the COVID-19 pandemic, on the financial performance of companies and the audit quality in this era as much as possible. It also investigates the motivations of earnings management. Managers tend to present a favorable image of themselves to investors therefore this research examines the relationship between earnings management and financial performance during the pandemic.
Keywords: Audit Quality, COVID-19 Pandemic, Earnings Management, Financial Performance -
روابط نظامیان/غیرنظامیان همواره کانون توجه مطالعات علم سیاست بوده و در این میان مداخله نظامیان در مدیریت بحران های ناشی از بلایای طبیعی به عنوان حوزه ای متفاوت از مداخلات متعارف اما نامطلوب در امور غیرنظامی قلمداد شده است. بحران پاندمی کرونا اگرچه از نظر گستردگی -جهانی- و ماهیت -بیماری ویروسی- با سایر بلایای طبیعی متعارف متفاوت بوده است اما به عنوان پدیده ای که روند معمول زندگی را به نحوی فراتر از ظرفیت های متعارف سازمان سیاسی در تمشیت امر عمومی متاثر نموده است ذیل بلایای طبیعی قابل دسته بندی است و در عمل نیز نیروهای نظامی در اغلب کشورهای جهان در کنار سازمان سیاسی در مدیریت این بحران جهانی مشارکت نموده اند. ناتو نیز در بحران پاندمی کووید-19 نقش آفرینی مهمی داشت. چگونگی مداخله ناتو در بحران کرونا پرسشی محوری است که در این متن به آن پاسخ داده خواهد شد. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می-دهد ناتو نه به عنوان یک بازیگر اصلی که در قالب بازیگری تسهیل گر تلاش کرده تا پاندمی کووید-19 از مرحله یک بیماری مسری به مرحله بحران امنیتی وارد نشود. این موضوع خط قرمز ناتو در مسائل رخ داده در کشورهای عضو بوده که عملکرد نیروهای نظامی و وزارت دفاع کشورهای مذکور را تحت الشعاع قرار داده است. مشخصا این سازمان نظامی امنیتی در طول دوره بهار 2020 الی بهار 2022 تلاش خود را روی کنترل بیماری و اجرای کارآمد سیاست قرنطینه و فاصله گذاری اجتماعی از طریق استفاده از عملیات اجرایی، برپایی کمپ و بکارگیری لجستیک، پخش تجهیزات و سازمان دهی نیروها برای برقراری وضعیت حکومت نظامی معطوف کرده است.
کلید واژگان: ناتو، مداخله سیاستی، پاندمی کووید-19، نیروهای مسلح، تصمیم گیری بحرانMilitary/civilian relations have always been the focus of political science studies, and, military intervention in crisis caused by natural disasters has been considered as a different field from conventional but undesirable interventions in civilian affairs. Although the corona pandemic crisis has been different from other conventional natural disasters but affects the normal process of life beyond normal capacities of administrations then can be categorized as natural disasters and in practice military forces in most countries have participated in the management of this global crisis along with the political organization. NATO also played an important role in the Covid-19 pandemic crisis. How NATO intervenes in the Corona crisis is a central question that will be answered in this text. The results of this research show that NATO, not as a main actor, but in the form of a facilitator, has tried to prevent the Covid-19 pandemic from entering the stage of a contagious disease into a security crisis. This issue has been the red line of NATO in the issues that happened in the member countries, which has overshadowed the performance of the military forces and the Ministry of Defense of the mentioned countries. Obviously, during the period of spring 2020 to spring 2022, this military security organization will focus its efforts on disease control and the efficient implementation of the quarantine and social distancing policy through the use of executive operations, setting up camps and using logistics, distributing equipment and organizing forces to establish a state of martial law
Keywords: NATO, Political Intervention, Covid-19 Pandemic, Armed Forces, Crisis Decision Making -
Given that shocks such as the COVID-19 Pandemic are likely to occur in the future, it is important to understand how they affect macroeconomic variables. In addition to health shock, global oil prices and demand slumped and oil-exporting countries have faced substantial oil shock and budget deficits from the COVID-19 outbreak. Considering the dynamic and stochastic nature of the COVID-19 outbreak, this study mainly aims to evaluate the macroeconomic effects of the current COVID-19 shock through the lens of the micro-founded New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NK-DSGE) model. Our model has been simulated for Iran’s economy, as a major oil exporter and the worst damaged by COVID-19 among oil exporting countries. Since the macroeconomic consequences of pandemics are highly dependent on the length and severity of shock persistency, three scenarios (optimistic, base, and pessimistic) have been considered and compared. The results are considered in four directions: first, the COVID-19 outbreak strongly influenced consumption, labor productivity, production (goods and services), government oil and tax revenues, and caused stagflation. Second, household response to COVID-19 shock is highly affected by shock persistence. Third, the policy response to a budget deficit during COVID-19 is a great concern in oil-exporting developing countries. The policy response could potentially be financed from oil-based sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) in oil-exporting countries. The IRFs analysis of the SWF-funded policy response indicated limited detrimental outcomes in the services and production sector. Fourth, results from implementing a counterfactual tax scenario demonstrated that increasing the government tax base could significantly reduce government budget vulnerabilities during pandemics in oil-exporting developing countries.Keywords: Budget Vulnerability, Covid-19 Pandemic, DSGE Analysis, Macroeconomic, Persistence Of Shock
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مقدمه و اهداف
عدم اطمینان در تامین مواد غذایی در کشور، توجه به زنجیره تامین مواد غذایی نیمه آماده را افزایش داده است. زنجیره تامین مواد غذایی همانند بسیاری از بخش های اقتصادی کشور، از همه گیری کرونا مصون نمانده است. تامین مواد غذایی، با توجه به رفتاری که دولت و مشتریان در این شرایط بروز می دهند، می تواند بر عدم اطمینان زنجیره تامین بیفزاید و لزوم شبیه سازی رفتار بازیگران زنجیره تامین در این شرایط را بیشتر کند. از این رو، هدف این پژوهش، شبیه سازی عامل بنیان برای تبیین روابط بازیگران زنجیره تامین غذای آماده و نیمه آماده برای واردات مواد اولیه و صادرات محصولات نهایی در دوران همه گیری کرونا است.
روش هااین پژوهش از نظر هدف، کاربردی بوده و از نظر نحوه گردآوری داده ها، با توجه به استفاده از روش شبیه سازی عامل بنیان از نوع تحلیلی-توصیفی می باشد. مورد مطالعه این پژوهش برای شبیه سازی شرایط همه گیری کرونا در زنجیره تامین، یکی از شرکت های موادغذایی آماده و نیمه آماده در استان تهران (با ظرفیت تولید 216 هزار تن در ماه) در نظر گرفته شده است. جهت شناسایی عوامل، متغیرها و پارامترهای مدل عامل بنیان، از روش تحلیل مضمون با بررسی پیشنه پژوهش و انجام مصاحبه با 20 نفر از خبرگان فعال در صنعت مواد غذایی آماده و نیمه آماده و خبرگان زنجیره تامین شرکت آماده لذیذ استفاده شده است.
یافته هابر اساس یافته های به دست آمده، سه عامل «دولت» (شامل: گمرک، سازمان ملی استاندارد، سازمان حمایت از مصرف کنندگان، بانک صنعت و معدن، اتاق بازرگانی- صنایع-معادن و کشاورزی ایران و سازمان غذا و دارو)، «شرکت های زنجیره تامین» (شامل: تامین داخلی، تامین کننده خارجی، تولیدکننده، و پخش کننده) و «مشتری نهایی» (شامل مشتریان داخلی و مشتریان خارجی) مهم ترین عوامل زنجیره تامین مواد غذایی هستند که در بحث صادارات نقش آفرینی می کنند. بر اساس مصاحبه ها، مهم ترین عدم اطمینان شناسایی شده، مداخله و عدم مداخله دولت در امر صادرات و واردات هستند.بر این اساس، دو سناریوی «دخالت دولت در صادارات و واردات» و «عدم دخالت حمایتی دولت» در شرایط همه گیری، مطرح و توسعه داده شد و روابط و ویژگی آن ها و در نهایت، رفتار و تصمیم های بازیگران زنجیره تامین (عوامل) با روش عامل بنیان شبیه سازی شد. به عنوان یکی از گام های شبیه سازی از روش دیمتل فازی به منزله روشی مکمل برای شناسایی مهم ترین روابط اصلی بین بازیگران زنجیره تامین مواد غذایی آماده و نیمه آماده استفاده شد. پارامترهای شبیه سازی در این پژوهش شامل: تعرفه های واردات مواد اولیه (برحسب درصد)، تعرفه های صادرات محصولات (درصد)، حجم کل تقاضای داخلی ماهانه (هزار تن)، حجم کل تقاضای خارجی ماهانه (هزار تن)، حجم کل تقاضا ماهانه (هزارتن) و حداکثر ظرفیت تولید (هزار تن) در نظر گرفته شد.همچنین متغیرهای مورد استفاده در شبیه سازی این پژوهش شامل: درصد تغییرات قیمت تمام شده نسبت به قیمت پایه، درصد تکمیل سفارشات مشتریان داخلی، درصد تکمیل سفارشات مشتریان خارجی، کل سفارشات تکمیل شده (حجم فروش کل)، میزان سود دریافتی از بازار داخلی، میزان سود دریافتی از بازار خارجی و درصد سود کل به دست آمد. در این بخش، شبیه سازی بر اساس دوسناریوی عدم مداخله حمایتی و مداخله حمایتی دولت در واردات مواد اولیه و صادارت محصولات نهایی، با تاکید بر دو متغیر اصلی «سودآوری» و «درصد تحقق سفارشات» که برآیند همه متغیرهای مدل هستند، شبیه سازی شدند.
نتیجه گیریبر اساس نتایج پژوهش، در سناریوی مداخله حمایتی دولت، درصد سودآوری 6% و تحقق سفارشات کل 14% افزایش برآورد شد. با توجه به دوشاخص تعریف شده برای مقایسه سناریوها، سناریو دوم شرایط مطلوب تری را برای حمایت از تولید داخلی، افزایش سطح اشتغال و امنیت مواد غذایی در بازار داخلی و خارجی ایجاد می نماید.
کلید واژگان: شبیه سازی عامل بنیان، همه گیری کرونا، دیمتل فازی، مواد غذایی نیمه آماده، زنجیره تامینIntroductionUncertainty in food supply in the country has heightened the focus on the supply chain of semi-prepared foods. Like many economic sectors, the food supply chain has not been immune to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Food supply, influenced by the behaviors of governments and customers during such crises, can exacerbate uncertainties in the supply chain, underlining the need for simulating the behavior of supply chain actors. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to develop an agent-based simulation to analyze the relationships between actors in the supply chain of ready and semi-prepared foods concerning raw material imports and final product exports during the COVID-19 pandemic.
MethodsThis study is applied in its aim and descriptive-analytical in terms of data collection, utilizing agent-based simulation techniques. The case study for simulating pandemic conditions in the supply chain is one of the ready and semi-prepared food companies in Tehran Province with a production capacity of 216,000 tons per month. To identify factors, variables, and parameters for the agent-based model, the research employed thematic analysis, reviewing prior studies, and conducting interviews with 20 industry experts from the ready and semi-prepared food sector and supply chain experts from Amadeh-Laziz Company.
Results and DiscussionThe findings identified three main actors in the food supply chain that play a role in exports: “Government” (e.g., customs, national standards organization, consumer protection organizations, industry and mining banks, Iran Chamber of Commerce-Industries-Mines and Agriculture, and the Food and Drug Administration), “Supply Chain Companies” (e.g., domestic suppliers, foreign suppliers, manufacturers, and distributors), and “Final Customers” (e.g., domestic and foreign customers). The key uncertainty identified in interviews was governmental intervention or non-intervention in exports and imports.Accordingly, two scenarios were developed: “Governmental intervention in exports and imports”, and “Lack of governmental support in exports and imports during the pandemic”. These scenarios were analyzed using agent-based simulation to examine the relationships, characteristics, and decision-making behaviors of supply chain actors. Additionally, fuzzy DEMATEL was used as a complementary method to identify the most significant relationships among actors in the ready and semi-prepared food supply chain. Simulation parameters included: Import tariffs on raw materials (%), Export tariffs on final products (%), Total monthly domestic demand (in thousand tons), Total monthly foreign demand (in thousand tons), Total monthly demand (in thousand tons), Maximum production capacity (in thousand tons).Simulation variables included: Percentage change in total costs compared to the base price, Percentage of completed domestic customer orders, Percentage of completed foreign customer orders, Total completed orders (total sales volume), Profits from the domestic market, Profits from the foreign market, Percentage of overall profitability. The simulation was performed under the two scenarios of governmental non-intervention and governmental intervention in importing raw materials and exporting final products, with emphasis on two main variables: profitability and order fulfillment rate, which encapsulate the model’s overall outcomes.
ConclusionsThe results indicate that under the governmental intervention scenario, profitability increased by 6%, and total order fulfillment improved by 14%. Based on the defined criteria for scenario comparison, the second scenario (governmental support) provides more favorable conditions for supporting domestic production, enhancing employment levels, and ensuring food security in both domestic and international markets.
Keywords: Agent-Based Simulation, COVID-19 Pandemic, Fuzzy Dematel, Semi-Prepared Food, Supply Chain -
This article deals with the sociological study of the impact of the Corona epidemic on the quality of life of young women in Tehran. The Covid-19 virus pandemic has had many economic and social consequences. The purpose of the current research is to study the impact of the Corona crisis on the quality of life of women. The theoretical literature of quality of life, social support, gender inequality and role system became the basis of the research hypotheses. Research hypotheses were tested using standard questionnaires of quality of life, Enrich marital satisfaction, Phillips social support and researcher-made questionnaires about the importance of role and compliance with physical/social distance. Research data were collected by survey method and through an electronic questionnaire in a random way and a sample of 397 young married women from Tehran, and were analyzed with spss and Amos software. The findings of the research indicate that the effect of Corona on the quality of life of women is not the same and factors such as benefiting from the social support network, satisfaction with married life, and presence in virtual social networks allow the women of the research sample to, despite the high cost and The pressure of role in facing the corona crisis, to maintain their quality of life.
Keywords: Quality Of Life, Covid-19 Pandemic, Social Support, Marital Satisfaction, Young Women -
تحلیل فضایی بیماری کووید 19 بر اساس شاخص های جمعیتی و جغرافیایی در مناطق خشک، نمونه موردی کلانشهر قمهدف
هدف این پژوهش تحلیل فضایی ویروس کووید 19 بر اساس شاخص های جمعیتی و جغرافیایی در مناطق خشک (در کلانشهر قم) است.
روش و داده:
داده های این پژوهش از طریق داده های در دسترس دانشگاه علوم پزشکی قم طی سال های 1398 الی 1400 به دست آمده است. این اطلاعات بر اساس موقعیت مکانی هر فرد در محیط نرم افزار GIS قرار گرفته و از روش های شاخص نزدیک ترین همسایه (NNI) و آزمون موران جهانی و آماره عمومی G جهت اندازه گیری آماره های خودهمبستگی فضایی استفاده شد.
یافته هانتایج این پژوهش نشان داد که شیوع و همه گیری کووید 19 در برخی از محلات مناطق خشک (شهر قم) نسبت به دیگر محلات شرایط حادتری دارند.
نتیجه گیریبر مبنای یافته های تحقیق می توان عنوان کرد که الگوی پخش این بیماری در محلات شهر قم به صورت خوشه ای و از نوع خوشه ای با شدت بالا است. این رابطه در محلات باجک یک، خاکفرج، نیروگاه و شهرپردیسان قوی تر و با بیشترین فراوانی و در محلات شهرک حوزوی و دانشگاهی و شهرک فاطمیه به عنوان محلات آبی با کمترین فراوانی از نظر شاخص های جمعیتی و جغرافیایی گزارش شده است.
نوآوری، کاربردنتایجاز مهم ترین جنبه های نوآورانه و کاربردی تحقیق می توان به کاربرد GIS در توزیع و انتشار کووید 19 در محلات مختلف شهری مناطق خشک اشاره کرد. در واقع از جمله کاربردهای این پژوهش می توان به شاخت از رفتارشناسی و عملکرد فضازمانی ویروس های مشابه با نوع ویروس کووید 19 اشاره کرد که چارچوب فکری منسجم در کنترل و پیشگیری از همه گیری آن ارائه می دهد.
کلید واژگان: تحلیل فضایی، پاندمی کووید 19، محلات شهری قم، مناطق خشک، سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیاییAimThe aim of this research is to analyze the COVID-19 virus spatially based on demographic and geographic indicators in dry areas (in Qom metropolis).
Material & MethodThe data for this research was obtained through the available data from Qom University of Medical Sciences during the years 2018-1400. This information is based on the location of each person in the GIS software environment, and the methods of nearest neighbor index (NNI), global Moran's test, and general G statistic were used to measure spatial autocorrelation statistics.
FindingsThis research showed that the spread and pandemic of COVID-19 in some dry areas (Shahreqom) have more acute conditions than other localities.
ConclusionBased on the research findings, it can be said that the distribution pattern of this disease in the neighborhoods of Qom city is clustered and cluster type with high intensity. This relationship is stronger and with the highest frequency in the localities of Bajak Ik, Khakfaraj, Nirogah, and Shahrpardisan and in the localities of Hozovi and University and Fatemieh towns, which are the watery localities with the lowest frequency in terms of demographic and geographical indicators.
Innovation:
Among the most important innovative and practical aspects of research, we can mention the use of GIS in the distribution and spread of COVID-19 in different urban areas of dry regions. In fact, among the applications of this research, it is possible to mention the field of behavior and spatiotemporal function of viruses similar to the type of COVID-19 virus, which provides a coherent intellectual framework for controlling and preventing its epidemic.
Keywords: Spatial Analysis, Covid 19 Pandemic, Dry Areas, Urban Areas Of Qom, Geographic Information System -
بیماری های واگیردار تغییرات رفتاری و اجتماعی را در عرصه های مختلف به وجود می آورند، گردشگری و خط مقدم ارائه کنندگان خدمات آن یعنی راهنمایان گردشگری نیز از این قاعده مستثنا نیستند. پاندمی کرونا در جهان طیف وسیعی از فعالان صنعت گردشگری و مشاغل وابسته به آن را مخصوصا قشر راهنمایان گردشگری را تحت تاثیر قرار داده است. استان اردبیل تا قبل از پاندمی کرونا، استانی فعال در زمینه طبیعت گردی و گردشگری فرهنگی و شهری بوده و راهنمایان طبیعت و فرهنگی شهری فعالی داشته، لذا این پژوهش به دنبال بررسی آثار پاندمی کرونا بر جنبه های مختلف زندگی راهنمایان گردشگری شهری می باشد. پژوهش حاضر از نوع پژوهش های کیفی در قالب پدیدار شناختی می باشد. بدین منظور برای جمع آوری داده ها با روش نمونه گیری گلوله برفی 16 نفر از راهنمایان استان اردبیل موردبررسی قرار گرفتند. و تجارب زیسته راهنمایان با استفاده از مصاحبه های نیمه ساختاریافته به دست آمد و به شیوه هفت مرحله ای کلایزی مورد تجزیه وتحلیل قرار گرفت. بر اساس تجزیه وتحلیل انجام شده، ابعاد مثبت و منفی زندگی در این دوره ثبت و 10 دسته معانی اصلی برای تجربه زیسته این قشر در دوران شیوع کرونا شناسایی شد که به طور خلاصه عبارت اند از: تغییرات در سبک زندگی، چالش ها و فرصت های اقتصادی، دگردیسی الگوی اشتغال، تغییرات در نوع نگرش، عامل تبلیغات، رعایت مسائل بهداشتی، تغییر اشکال روابط اجتماعی، مسائل روحی و روانی، رکود در فعالیت ها و موانع سازمانی. همچنین هر کدام از معانی اصلی دارای معانی فرعی و زیرشاخه های ویژه خود می باشند.
کلید واژگان: همه گیری کوید-19، تجارب زیسته، راهنمایان گردشگریInfectious diseases cause behavioral and social changes. tourism industry and tourist guides are also changing like other sectors.Before the covid, Ardabil province was an active province in the field of nature and culture tourism, and nature guides and cultural guides of both groups were active in this province. So this study aims to examine the impacts of COVID-19 on different aspects of urban tourist guides' lives. this research was conducted as qualitative research in a phenomenological format. 16 tourist guides of Ardabil were investigated by snowball sampling method to collect data. the data was obtained using semi-structured interviews and analyzed in a seven-step Colaizzi method.based on the analysis the positive and negative dimensions of life were recorded in this period and 10 categories of meanings were identified for the lived experience of the tourist guides of Ardabil province during the outbreak of COVID-19, which are: changes in lifestyle, economic challenges and opportunities, transformation of employment pattern, changing in attitudes, advertising, compliance with health issues, changing forms of social relations, mental and psychological issues, stagnation in activities and organizational obstacles.
Keywords: Covid-19 Pandemic, Lived Experiences, Urban Tourism, Ardabil Province -
در پاسخ به همه گیری کووید-19، دولت ها در سراسر دنیا به دنبال ارائه راهکاری در راستای مدیریت بحران برای کاهش انتشار آلاینده ها ناشی از منابع ترافیکی بودند. ازاین رو، تصمیم بر آن شد که تغییرات آلاینده های هوا و حجم ترافیک به عنوان یکی از زیرمجموعه های شاخص زیست محیطی توسعه پایدار شهری در زمان همه گیری کووید -19 و مقایسه آن با دوره قبل از همه گیری در بازه زمانی 01/11/1396 تا 29/12/1400 موردبررسی قرار گیرد. هدف از این پژوهش، مقایسه غلظت آلاینده ها در دوره همه گیری با دوره قبل از آن و همچنین ارائه الگو برای پیش بینی شاخص کیفیت هوا در کلان شهرهای ایران است. ابتدا داده های جمع آوری شده آلاینده ها از کلان شهرهای ایران پردازش و پاکسازی شدند. بعد از انتخاب ویژگی ها با الگوریتم بهینه سازی ازدحام ذرات، روش های یادگیری ماشین اعمال شد. نتایج نشان می دهد الگوی افزایشی و یا کاهشی یکسانی در غلظت آلاینده ها در دوران کووید-19 نسبت به قبل از آن، در تمامی کلان شهرها دیده نمی شود و تاثیر محدودیت ها بر روی غلظت آلاینده ها در شهرهای مختلف، متفاوت است؛ بنابراین لازم است جهت مدیریت این بحران و همچنین بحران آلودگی هوا که می تواند در انتشار بیماری نقش چشمگیری داشته باشد، برای هر موقعیت شهری، الگوی محدودیت های ترافیکی مختص آن موقعیت تهیه گردد. همچنین نتایج بیانگر این است شاخص کیفیت هوا در اکثر کلان شهرهای ایران نه تنها کاهش نداشته، بلکه افزایش یافته است؛ بنابراین می بایست تدابیر دقیقی برای مدیریت هرگونه بحران مشابه در آینده در جهت کاهش غلظت آلاینده ها و بهبود شاخص کیفیت هوا با توجه به موقعیت مکانی و جغرافیایی هر شهر در نظر گرفته شود.کلید واژگان: شاخص کیفیت هوا (AQI)، انتشارهای ترافیکی، همه گیری کووید-19، مدل های یادگیری ماشین، آلودگی هوای شهری، ارزیابی اثرات زیست محیطیIn response to the Covid-19 pandemic, governments worldwide implemented crisis management strategies to reduce emissions from traffic sources. This study examines changes in air pollutant concentrations and traffic volume considered subsets of the environmental index of sustainable urban development—during the Covid-19 epidemic, comparing them with the pre-epidemic period from January 21, 2018, to March 20, 2022. The primary objective of this research is to compare pollutant concentrations during the epidemic with those of the pre-pandemic period and to develop a model for predicting the Air Quality Index (AQI) in Iran's metropolitan cities.First, collected pollutant data from Iran’s metropolises were processed and cleaned. Following feature selection using the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, machine learning methods were applied to analyze the data. The results reveal that no consistent pattern of increase or decrease in pollutant concentrations was observed across all metropolitan cities during the Covid-19 pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period. The effects of restrictions on pollutant concentrations varied significantly across different cities.To manage both the pandemic crisis and the associated air pollution crisis, which may exacerbate the spread of disease, it is essential to design traffic restriction models tailored to the specific conditions of each urban location. Additionally, the findings indicate that the Air Quality Index in most of Iran’s major cities did not decrease during the pandemic; in fact, it increased. Therefore, targeted and precise measures must be adopted to manage similar crises in the future. Such measures should aim to reduce pollutant concentrations and improve the air quality index, taking into account the geographical characteristics of each city.Keywords: Air Quality Index(AQI), Traffic Emission, Covid-19 Pandemic, Machine Learning Models, Urban Air Pollution, Environmental Impact Assessment
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Television series serve as tools for propaganda and influence, allowing political figures to manipulate public opinion and control how they are perceived. One notable example of this phenomenon can be seen in the representation of Boris Johnson in the TV series ‘This England’. The representation of Johnson in the midst of scandals like Party Gate and the mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic tainted his public image as a reliable leader and a dependable Prime Minister. The resulting backlash against him was so severe that he was called to testify in the official COVID-19 inquiry (2023) following his compelled resignation. The filming of the 'This England' during his time in office and its airing just 22 days after his departure, appeared as an effort to repair his damaged image. Utilizing qualitative content analysis and drawing on Stuart Hall's theory of representation, this paper explores the nuanced depiction of Johnson's leadership and contributes to our understanding of how television series can shape political narratives. The significance of this study resides in its contribution to our comprehension of the multifaceted ways in which television series can shape public perception of political leadership and contribute to broader societal and political discourse.Keywords: Boris Johnson, Britain, Covid-19 Pandemic, Representation, This England
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Academic decline has always been a primary concern for researchers in the field of education. Recently, the COVID-19 pandemic has shed new light on this phenomenon. This study aims to identify factors affecting academic decline during the COVID-19 pandemic and develop a model to predict academic decline during virtual education. The present research employed a mixed qualitative-quantitative methodology. The study population included all mothers, students, and teachers of middle and high school levels in the city of Sabzevar in 2021. A sample of 30 individuals was selected through purposive sampling due to data saturation, considering inclusion and exclusion criteria, and interviewed. Following the identification and validation of qualitative categories and factors, a questionnaire was designed and administered to 384 participants (mothers, students, and teachers of middle and high school levels). The unlimited population responded to the researcher-made 49-item questionnaire on the challenges of virtual education impacting academic decline during the COVID-19 pandemic. To test the research hypotheses, descriptive statistics and structural equation modeling (SEM) using SPSS 20 and PLS Smart software were utilized. The findings indicated that, following qualitative interviews, six main grounded theory categories emerged, encompassing 12 fundamental factors. These included two causal factors (lack of motivation and academic isolation), one central factor (academic decline), three contextual factors (quantity and quality of electronic devices, internet quality, and software and hardware deficiencies), three intervening factors (role pressure on parents, web usage culture, and learning environment), and two strategies (ineffective teaching and inappropriate assessment) and one outcome (reduced learning). Ultimately, the structural equation modeling validated the conceptual model designed based on grounded theory. The results indicated that 12 fundamental factors influenced academic decline during virtual education amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to the development of a significant predictive model for academic decline in virtual education.
Keywords: Academic Decline, Virtual Education, COVID-19 Pandemic -
هدف
هدف این پژوهش، آسیب شناسی چالش های سرمایه فکری در نظام بهداشت و درمان و آموزش پزشکی دانشگاه علوم پزشکی خراسان شمالی در دوران همه گیری کووید-19 بود.
روش شناسی:
این پژوهش با استفاده از روش های ترکیبی (کیفی و کمی) انجام شد. در بخش کیفی، مصاحبه هایی با 17 نفر از صاحب نظران حوزه بهداشت و آموزش پزشکی با استفاده از روش نمونه گیری هدفمند انجام شد. در بخش کمی، 278 نفر از روسا، معاونان و کارشناسان نظام بهداشت و آموزش پزشکی از طریق نمونه گیری تصادفی طبقه ای انتخاب و پرسشنامه ای برای آنان توزیع گردید. برای تحلیل داده های کیفی از نرم افزار MAXQDA و برای آزمون روایی و پایایی در بخش کمی از نرم افزارهای SPSS22 و PLS3 استفاده شد.
یافته هانتایج پژوهش سه تم اصلی شامل ضعف ساختاری، چالش های نیروی انسانی و مشکلات ارتباطی را به عنوان عوامل کلیدی آسیب های سرمایه فکری شناسایی کرد. این عوامل تاثیر قابل توجهی بر وضعیت موجود و مطلوب نظام بهداشت و درمان در دوران همه گیری داشتند. تاثیر این مسائل بر نگهداشت سرمایه فکری از حد آستانه 1.96 فراتر رفت که نشان دهنده نقش حیاتی آن ها در کارایی سازمان ها در دوران بحران است.
نتیجه گیرییافته های این پژوهش نشان داد که سرمایه فکری، به ویژه در زمینه نیروی انسانی، فرآیندهای ساختاری و ارتباطات، نقش مهمی در مدیریت موفق نظام های بهداشتی و آموزشی در دوران بحران دارد. با بهبود زیرساخت ها، توسعه منابع انسانی و ارتقاء استراتژی های ارتباطی، می توان کارایی این نظام ها را در بحران های آتی بهبود بخشید.
کلید واژگان: سرمایه فکری، نظام بهداشت و درمان، آموزش پزشکی، همه گیری کووید-19ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to analyze and diagnose intellectual capital challenges within the healthcare and medical education system of North Khorasan University of Medical Sciences during the COVID-19 pandemic.
MethodologyThis research was conducted using a mixed-methods approach, including both qualitative and quantitative analyses. The qualitative section involved interviews with 17 experts in the healthcare and medical education system, selected through purposive sampling. For the quantitative part, 278 presidents, deputies, and experts from the healthcare and medical education sectors were surveyed using stratified random sampling. Data collection involved field methods (interviews, questionnaires) and library research. MAXQDA software was used for qualitative data analysis, while SPSS22 and PLS3 were used for quantitative testing of components' validity and reliability.
FindingsThe study identified three main themes related to intellectual capital issues: structural weaknesses, human resource challenges, and communication problems. These factors were found to have a significant impact on the current and desired state of the healthcare and medical education systems during the pandemic. The analysis showed that the influence of these issues on intellectual capital retention exceeded the threshold of 1.96, indicating their critical role in affecting organizational efficiency and effectiveness during the COVID-19 crisis.
ConclusionThe findings highlight that intellectual capital, particularly in terms of human resources, structural processes, and communication, plays a crucial role in the successful management of healthcare and educational systems during a crisis. Addressing these challenges through improved infrastructure, human resource development, and enhanced communication strategies can significantly improve organizational performance during future crises.
Keywords: Intellectual Capital, Healthcare System, Medical Education, Covid-19 Pandemic -
در سال های اخیر پاندمی کووید-19 به عنوان یک بحران جهانی آسیب هایی را به اقتصاد کشور ها وارد کرده است. در ادبیات اقتصادی توجه ویژه ایی به شاخص ترکیبی تاب آوری اقتصادی در برابر شوک های خارجی در راستای کمی کردن این مفهوم صورت گرفته است. هدف از این پژوهش، بررسی تاثیر پاندمی کووید-19 بر تاب آوری اقتصادی کشورها با سطوح درآمد ی بالا، متوسط و پایین است. این مطالعه برای 150 کشور و با استفاده از مدلPSTR ، در بازه زمانی 2021-2020 صورت گرفته است. برای انجام این پژوهش، شاخص تاب آوری اقتصادی با استفاده از روش بریگوگلیو محاسبه شده است. نتایج پژوهش حاضر حاکی از آن است که پاندمی کووید-19 اثر منفی و معنی دار بر تاب آوری اقتصادی کشورها دارد. نتایج آزمون خطی بودن، وجود رابطه غیر خطی بین متغیرها را تایید می کند. با در نظر گرفتن یک تابع انتقال و یک پارامتر آستانه ای، می توان یک مدل دو رژیمی برای توضیح رابطه غیرخطی بین متغیرهای الگو در سه گروه کشورهای با درآمد بالا، متوسط و پایین بهینه سازی کرد. پارامتر شیب (سرعت انتقال) برای سه گروه کشور به ترتیب برابر 57/4 ، 00/5 و 12/8 است. نتایج برآورد مدل حاکی از آن است در هر دو رژیم خطی و غیرخطی، متغیر کووید-19 تاثیر منفی بر تاب آوری اقتصادی گروه کشورهای با درآمد بالا، متوسط و پایین داشته است. بدین معنی که افزایش در پاندمی کووید-19 منجر به کاهش میزان تاب آوری اقتصادی این گروه کشورها شده است.
کلید واژگان: تاب آوری اقتصادی، پاندمی کووید-19، الگوی رگرسیون انتقال ملایم پانلیPurposeIn recent years, the COVID-19 pandemic has imposed considerable harm on economies globally. This situation has prompted researchers to thoroughly examine the issue from different perspectives and view bolstering the resilience of countries as the most effective strategy to address the vulnerabilities. Such efforts can mitigate the harmful effects and negative outcomes of the disease. The susceptibility of economic systems to the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic varies, with some being significantly more vulnerable to its effects. In this context, the greater a country's ability to mobilize its resources against such risks, the more resilient it becomes. Hence, economic resilience is regarded as a comprehensive approach to enhancing the existing capacities and reducing economic vulnerability in the face of various crises and environmental threats. Moreover, economic resilience is shaped by the implementation of economic policies and has an accumulative nature. Individuals and different schools of thought have focused on the concept of resilience within the economic realm, structuring their studies accordingly. Economic resilience emerges as a pervasive criterion in the literature on economic stabilization.In the economic discourse, particular emphasis is placed on assessing the composite index of economic resilience against external shocks, aiming to quantify this notion. This study sets out to investigate how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the economic resilience of countries across high, medium and low levels of income. Addressing 150 nations, this research employs the PSTR model over the timeframe spanning 2020 to 2021. The Economic Resilience Index is computed utilizing the Bruegel method for this inquiry.
MethodologyThe PSTAR (Panel Smooth Transition Autoregressive) model is a powerful tool utilized to analyze nonlinearities and regime shifts in panel data. It extends traditional autoregressive models by allowing for smooth transitions between different states or regimes, thereby capturing complex dynamics in economic time series data.The PSTAR model assumes that the relationship between variables evolves smoothly over time and across different regimes. It is particularly useful in capturing threshold effects, where the impacts of one or more variables on the dependent variable change abruptly beyond a certain threshold level. This is achieved through the specification of transition functions, which determine how the model transitions occur between different regimes based on the values of certain threshold variables. The PSTAR model estimation involves several steps, including the specification of transition functions, estimation of model parameters using maximum likelihood or other suitable methods, and diagnostic checks to assess the model's goodness-of-fit and validity of assumptions. Additionally, we conduct robustness checks and sensitivity analyses to ensure the reliability of our findings.
Findings and DiscussionThis study reveals a significant negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic resilience of countries across different income levels. Employing a two-regime model, the analysis demonstrates a nonlinear correlation among the variables, suggesting varied adjustment speeds among economic regimes. Specifically, countries with high incomes experience a moderate pace of adjustment, those with moderate incomes adjust slowly, and low-income countries adjust rapidly. This suggests that economic changes in response to the pandemic occur at different speeds across income groups.The COVID-19 pandemic has induced structural and performance alterations in economies worldwide, including increased unemployment, reduced growth, and shifts in consumption and investment patterns. These changes, coupled with challenges such as quarantine restrictions and decreased incomes, have led to considerable adjustments in economic dynamics, varying in speed from one state to another.Overall, economic changes during the pandemic are of significant diversity across countries, affecting consumption and production behaviors, policy frameworks, and international relations. Threshold values, representing critical points of pandemic severity, determine whether economic variables behave linearly or nonlinearly. When the pandemic's impact surpasses these thresholds, economic variables begin shifting to nonlinear regimes.Estimations from the smooth panel regression approach indicate a notable negative effect of the pandemic on economic vulnerability, affecting countries with high, medium, and low incomes alike. Per capita GDP, remittances, and foreign direct investment emerge as key influencers of economic resilience. While per capita GDP decreases during the pandemic for high and medium-income countries, it increases in the second threshold regime and boosts economic resilience. Remittances positively impact economic resilience in high-income countries but negatively affect medium and low-income ones initially, transitioning to positive effects after crossing the threshold. Foreign direct investment initially reduces economic resilience across all income levels but becomes positive and significant in high-income countries after crossing the threshold.In summary, the study underscores the complex interplay between the COVID-19 pandemic and economic resilience, emphasizing the need for tailored policy responses to mitigate its adverse effects across different income groups.Conclusions and Policy Implications: Although the public health system is evolving, the world remains susceptible to shocks caused by contagious diseases that present fundamental challenges to economies. The vulnerability resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic has spurred countries to allocate more funds to ensure economic security and global health. Nations across the globe are working to reduce the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis through well-balanced policies, seeking to mitigate risks to the society as much as possible. To tackle the COVID-19 crisis, extensive actions are being taken, including sharing knowledge and experiences regarding strategies, policies and improvement plans, examining common responses, and coordinating actions to enhance resilience and effective recovery preparedness. Strengthening communication among policymakers, development planners, and relevant stakeholders, establishing strong multilateral institutions with political support for global health shock coordination, creating fast financial procurement mechanisms for essential goods, increasing investment in disease surveillance at global and regional levels, developing regional production capacities for vaccines, tests and medicines, sharing medical technology and knowledge, and transferring medical technologies are the measures being taken. Additionally, strategic approaches to national improvement, including economic and financial measures, effective financial procurement design, and financial resource mobilization efforts to mitigate the effects of COVID-19, are being pursued. These measures aim to enhance the resilience and sustainability of public health systems and foster systematic research and development for the preparation of effective and safe vaccines against any virus. Therefore, based on the findings of this research and similar studies, policymakers need to focus on strengthening the economic resilience of countries, in addition to implementing other policies aimed at reducing the spread of and preventing the COVID-19 disease. These actions may include policies to strengthen healthcare infrastructure, develop economic and social crisis response plans, and encourage the development of human resources needed to combat the disease and its economic impacts.
Keywords: Economic Resilience, Covid-19 Pandemic, Panel Smooth Transition Regression -
پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی نقش واسطه ای فرسودگی والدینی در رابطه بین پریشانی روانی و بدرفتاری با فرزندان در پاندمی کووید-19 انجام شد. جامعه آماری پژوهش مشتمل بر کلیه مادران دانش آموزان دوره متوسطه شهر اردکان در سال تحصیلی 1401-1400 بود. 248 نفر با روش دردسترس انتخاب و به پرسشنامه های استاندارد کودک آزاری (CAQ) حسینخانی و همکاران، (1392)، پریشانی روانی (DTQ) کسلر و همکاران (2002) و فرسودگی والدینی (PBQ) بریاندا و همکاران (2018) پاسخ دادند. برای تحلیل داده ها از مدلسازی معادلات ساختاری استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد بین پریشانی روانی و فرسودگی والدینی با بدرفتاری با فرزندان رابطه مثبت معنی داری وجود دارد (05/0>P). همچنین نتایج نشان داد فرسودگی والدینی بر بدرفتاری با فرزندان و پریشانی روانی بر فرسودگی والدینی اثر مستقیم و معنی داری دارد (05/0>P). همچنین پریشانی روانشناختی از طریق فرسودگی والدینی اثر غیر مستقیم معنی داری بر بدرفتاری با فرزندان داشت (05/0>P). بنابراین مدل پژوهش از برازش مطلوبی برخوردار بوده و پریشانی روانشناختی به واسطه فرسودگی والدینی با بدرفتاری با فرزندان در پاندمی کووید-19ارتباط دارد و می توان از این یافته ها در برنامه های آموزشی و مداخلات مرتبط با خانواده ها در شرایط همه گیری استفاده نمود.
کلید واژگان: پریشانی روانی، فرسودگی والدینی، بدرفتاری با فرزندان، پاندمی کووید-19The present study was conducted to investigate the mediating role of parental burnout in the relationship between mental distress and child abuse in the covid-19 pandemic. The statistical population of the research included all mothers of secondary school students in Ardakan city in the academic year 1400-1401. 248 people were selected with convenience sampling and answered the standard child abuse questionnaires (CAQ) Hosseinkhani et al., (2012), psychological distress (DTQ) Kessler et al. Structural equation modeling was used for data analysis. The results showed that there is a significant positive relationship between mental distress and parental burnout with child abuse (P<0.05). Also, the results showed that parental burnout has a direct and significant effect on child abuse and mental distress on parental burnout (P<0.05). Also, psychological distress through parental burnout had an important indirect impact on child abuse (P<0.05). Therefore, the research model has a good fit, and psychological distress due to parental burnout is related to misbehaving children during the COVID-19 pandemic, and these findings can be used in educational programs and interventions related to families in epidemic conditions.
Keywords: Psychological Distress, Parental Burnout, Child Abuse, Covid-19 Pandemic -
Investigating English Language Teaching Policies for Online Courses at an Iranian Language InstituteOne of the first steps toward improving online English language courses should be exploring and understanding the educational policies that shape them. Accordingly, the present study examined 191 educational guidelines and plans that were issued during the COVID-19 pandemic in a well-known Iranian language institute, in order to identify the main concerns of the institute policymakers, as well as the shortcomings of the online language classes. This was done through applying qualitative content analysis to these documents. The emerging themes revealed that the focus of the institute policymakers was mainly on supporting teachers’ and learners’ technological literacy. On the other hand, some of the guidelines which were issued in response to the teachers’ questions and requests indirectly revealed their concerns, thus highlighting the shortcomings. These revealed that online teacher training can be more efficient by supporting online teachers beyond mere technology literacy support, and with more emphasis on effective technological pedagogical knowledge. Moreover, online teachers could play an influential role in the decision-making, development, and teaching of online courses. Recognizing their key role, providing them with more support as well as more freedom, dignity and respect, can lead to an improvement in teacher soft skills, such as patience and empathy with students in times of crisis. Furthermore, promoting the motivation, job satisfaction, and overall well-being of teachers is expected to similarly promote student engagement and improve their performance.Keywords: Educational Policies, Online Teaching, English As A Foreign Language, COVID-19 Pandemic
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این مطالعه به بررسی زیست پذیری شهری به عنوان رویکردی چندبعدی برای مقابله با بیماری های همه گیر آتی در فضاهای شهری، در پاسخ به آسیب پذیری شهرها و زندگی شهری در دوران همه گیری کووید-19، پرداخته است. بر همین مبنا، مطالعه حاضر با ماهیتی کاربردی، از الگوی تحقیق توصیفی - تحلیلی پیروی می کند؛ ابزار گردآوری اطلاعات به دو صورت اسنادی - پیمایشی (پرسشنامه) است؛ جامعه آماری این مطالعه، شهروندان محله های سبز دشت و کوی گلستان است که حجم نمونه هرکدام از آن محله ها، 200 نفر برآورد شده است. شاخص های زیست پذیری شهری با استفاده از پرسشنامه ارزیابی شدند. نتایج آزمون های T مستقل و واریانس دو عاملی نشان می دهد که در دوران همه گیری کووید-19، ابعاد «مسکن»، «حمل ونقل»، «اقتصادی»، «زیست محیطی»، و «فراغت» در سبز دشت و ابعاد «زیست محیطی»، «اقتصادی»، و «فراغت» در کوی گلستان بازخوردهای مطلوبی نداشته اند. به طورکلی، وضعیت شاخص های زیست پذیری شهری در هر دو محله پایین تر از میانگین آماری ارزیابی شده، بااین حال، زیست پذیری در سبز دشت به مراتب مطلوب تر از کوی گلستان است. این نتایج بر اهمیت تقویت رویکرد زیست پذیری شهری در مواجهه با پاندمی های آینده تاکید می کند.
کلید واژگان: بافت فرسوده شهری، زیست پذیری شهری، شهرنشینی پساکرونا، کیفیت زندگی، همه گیری کووید-19This study examines urban livability as a multidimensional framework for addressing future pandemics in urban settings, in response to the vulnerabilities exposed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research employs an applied, descriptive-analytical model, utilizing both documentary and survey methods (questionnaires) for data collection. The statistical population consists of residents from the Sabzdasht and Koy-e Golestan neighborhoods, with a sample size of 200 individuals from each area. Urban livability indicators were evaluated through a structured questionnaire. Analysis using independent T-tests and two-way ANOVA reveals that during the COVID-19 pandemic, the dimensions of “housing”, “transportation”, “economic”, “environmental”, and “leisure” in Sabzehdasht, and “environmental”, “economic”, and “leisure” in Koy-e Golestan, did not receive favorable assessments. Overall, urban livability indicators in both neighborhoods were below the statistical average, although livability in Sabzeh Dasht was significantly higher than in Koyi Golestan. These results highlight the need to enhance urban livability to better prepare for future pandemics.
Keywords: Urban Livability, Livable Neighborhoods, Post-COVID Cities, Quality Of Life, COVID-19 Pandemic -
International Journal of Business and Development Studies, Volume:15 Issue: 2, Autumn 2023, PP 177 -212The impact of health infrastructure on economic growth in the framework of endogenous growth models has been studied in a few research pieces; however, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on economic growth in the endogenous growth models has not yet been studied. The present article expands the existing pieces of literature in several ways. First, investigating the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on economic growth in a steady-state situation. Second, identifying the threshold level of health infrastructure impact on long-term economic growth by considering the Covid-19 pandemic. Third, modeling of population dynamics and the Covid-19 pandemic. Fourth, modeling the level of following the protocols and public awareness of the Covid-19 pandemic and examining their impact on long-term economic growth. The developed model was calibrated using the information of a transition country, Iran. Results show If the health infrastructure is higher than the threshold level of 0.87, the output level will have an upward trend in the presence of the Covid-19 pandemic. Otherwise, the output trend will be downward. The increasing output could lead to the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic even in the long run in the Iranian economy. At a certain level of income, with the improvement of the health infrastructure, the level of Covid-19 pandemic release will decrease.Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic, Health Infrastructure, Economic Growth, Endogenous Growth Model
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زمینه و هدف
هدف مطالعه کنونی بررسی نقش سلامت معنوی - دینی در کاهش استرس و افزایش سلامت معنوی و روانی در زنان ایران در دوران پاندمی کرونا می باشد.
روش و موادروش تحقیق توصیفی و نمونه شامل 384 زن ایرانی بود. شرکت کنندگان پس از ارائه رضایت خود، پرسشنامه های تحقیق را در فرم گوگل تکمیل کردند که شامل پرسشنامه سلامت مذهبی جورج، مقیاس افسردگی، استرس و اضطراب(DASS-21) و پرسشنامه سلامت عمومی GHQ-28 بوده است.
یافته هانتایج پژوهش با نرم افزار AMOS24 مورد تحلیل قرار گرفته است و نشان می دهد بین میزان سلامت معنوی - دینی و باورهای مذهبی و استرس در زنان در دوران پاندمی کرونا ارتباط دارد. به این علت که سطح معناداری پایین تر از (P<0.05) بود تایید شد و استفاده از باورهای معنوی - دینی توانست 40.3% از استرس در زنان را تبیین و پیش بینی نماید. همچنین بین استفاده از ابزار سلامت معنوی - دینی و باورهای مذهبی و سلامت روانی عمومی زنان به علت سطح معناداری (P<0.05) تایید شد. استفاده از باورهای دینی نیز 35.5% از واریانس متغیر سلامت عمومی زنان را در دوران پاندمی کرونا تبیین و پیش بینی کرد.
نتیجه گیریپاندمی کرونا جان میلیون ها نفر را در سراسر جهان تهدید می کند، باورهای دینی تاثیر معناداری بر کاهش استرس و اضطراب و افزایش سلامت روانی - عمومی در زنان ایران داشته است. نتایج مطالعه مسئولیتی سنگین بر دوش متخصصان این رشته به خصوص در کشور مسلمان ایران می گذارد که با ارتقاء جنبه های معنوی - دینی و تغییر سبک زندگی زنان گامی بلند در حیطه سلامت زنان بردارند.
کلید واژگان: سلامت معنوی- دینی، استرس، سلامت عمومی - روانی، زنان، ایران، پاندمی کروناBackground and ObjectiveThe aim of the current study is to examine the role of spiritual-religious health in reducing stress and enhancing spiritual and psychological health among Iranian women during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods and Materials:
This descriptive research included a sample of 384 Iranian women. After providing their consent, participants completed the research questionnaires on Google Forms, which included George's Religious Health Questionnaire, the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale (DASS-21), and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28).
FindingsThe research results, analyzed using AMOS24 software, indicate a relationship between the level of spiritual-religious health and religious beliefs and stress in women during the COVID-19 pandemic. This was confirmed due to the significance level being less than (P<0.05), and the use of spiritual-religious beliefs could explain and predict 40.3% of the stress in women. Additionally, the use of spiritual-religious health tools and religious beliefs and general psychological health in women was confirmed due to the significance level (P<0.05). The use of religious beliefs also explained and predicted 35.5% of the variance in women's general health during the COVID-19 pandemic.
ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic threatens the lives of millions of people worldwide. Religious beliefs have had a significant impact on reducing stress and anxiety and increasing general psychological health in Iranian women. The study results place a heavy responsibility on specialists in this field, especially in the Muslim country of Iran, to promote spiritual-religious aspects and change the lifestyle of women to make significant strides in women's health.
Keywords: Spiritual-Religious Health, Stress, General-Psychological Health, Women, Iran, COVID-19 Pandemic -
International Journal of Information Science and Management, Volume:22 Issue: 3, Summer 2024, PP 233 -245Following the increase of false news about the COVID-19 disease and the psychological and social effects that have resulted, detecting fake news during the COVID-19 pandemic is one of the critical things that can be effective in this field. Therefore, the current study investigated the relationship and role of media literacy in predicting students' ability to detect fake news during the COVID-19 pandemic. This research was applied using a descriptive survey method. The statistical population of this research consists of all the students of Razi University; 371 students were selected as the sample population by stratified random sampling. A standard media literacy questionnaire with 20 questions was used to collect data and a researcher-made questionnaire on the ability to detect fake news in the COVID-19 pandemic based on the eight components of the IFLA notification in 34 questions. The results showed that the level of media literacy and the ability to detect fake news during the COVID-19 pandemic is average. Media literacy, with a correlation coefficient of 0.56, has a positive and significant relationship with the ability to detect fake news during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, with a path coefficient of 0.64, the predictive power detects fake news in the COVID-19 pandemic more than students. Training and measures should be taken to improve students' media literacy skills and increase their ability to deal with fake news.Keywords: Fake News, Covid-19 Pandemic, Media Literacy, Student, Razi University
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