جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "micmac" در نشریات گروه "علوم سیاسی"

This study was carried out with the aim of investigating and designing scenarios of the future state of political culture in Iran, with a future-oriented approach to the category of political culture, which is the strength and distinction of this work from previous works. Knowing the political culture as a way of drawing people's attitude towards the political system is important because, while creating the conditions for understanding the relationship between the various elements of human life, it is considered to be an indicator of the social and political changes governing the future of a political system as a result of intergenerational transformations.

we used quantitative and qualitative methods and the Petershwartz scenario method to answer the main question. in order to collect information, research literature and documents were reviewed in the form of a library method and a semi-structured interview with a panel of 25experts. the Delphi method was used, and to measure reliability, the structural analysis method based on the interrelationship matrix tables based on Micmac software was used. And to design the scenarios, we benefited from the Scenario Wizard software.

five key uncertainties related to the future state of political culture in Iran: myth-making, seeking justice, Ashura culture and Mahdism, linking religion and politics, and seeking independence, which are based on four cultural-political scenarios of religious democracy, religious exclusivity, and democratic participation. and subordinate-participatory political culture.

Among the 4 proposed scenarios, the scenario of subservient-participatory political culture has the highest probability of occurrence.

The geopolitical landscape of the Persian Gulf region has witnessed significant transformations in recent decades, marked by considerable tensions and conflicts among active political actors in the region, especially the neighboring countries of the Persian Gulf. Currently, amidst new developments, whispers about reducing tensions among regional countries, especially Iran and Saudi Arabia, are heard, which could potentially influence the geopolitical situation of the Persian Gulf region and improve future conditions in terms of economic, security, military, cultural, and environmental cooperation platforms. This research is premised on the notion that achieving peaceful convergence based on the mutual interests and needs of countries, such as economic, military, energy, and environmental needs, will create favorable conditions across various domains within the region. The aim of this research is to analyze the key factors and driving forces affecting the future status of the geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf region. The present study is based on an exploratory-applied research method, and the necessary data have been obtained through interviews with experts. The research findings indicate that the influential factors on the future status of the geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf region include, in order, factors such as extra-regional partners, the influence of major powers, establishing a common market, maritime cooperation, oil and gas trade, arms competitions, intra-regional conflicts, exchange rates, goods transit, and China's entry. Proper utilization of these key factors can lead to geopolitical convergence in the region.

Increasing transparency in government organizations and institutions' actions increases people's trust, and public participation, strengthens government institutions' legitimacy and acceptability, and aids in building social capital. The purpose of this research is to analyze the strategic drivers affecting the future of transparency in the Islamic Republic of Iran on the horizon of 1414. The current research is both descriptive and analytical, and its methodology is based on a hybrid approach of exploratory design (qualitative-quantitative). After conducting library and literature studies on the subject and interviewing experts, a list of effective factors for the future of transparency was obtained, and by Delphi method, these factors were reduced from 65 to 14. Utilizing the structural analysis method, the cross-effect matrix was designed, and by forming a panel of 20 experts and collecting their opinions about the influence of factors on each other, the data were entered into the matrix. Analyzing the data obtained from the matrix with MicMac software, the influence, impressionability, and effectiveness of each factor were evaluated. Based on the results of this research, five factors were identified: effective supervision of competent organizations; commitment and adherence of officials to religious and revolutionary principles; demands at the general level of society; support for media, a free press; and a free flow of information.

Cities have emerged as the center of change and where policies are implemented. In this regard the final document of the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development states with the title of the future we want; if cities are planned and developed as well, they can make it happen the Sustainable economic, social and environmental communities. This organization introduced a model In the name of the Prosperity city to realize the happiness of cities. This can draw the vision of comprehensive development for cities by analyzing the current situation and prioritizing planning interventions. In this research that has been done with the goal evaluation of Prosperity indicators in the neighborhoods of Saqez city; Effective indicators have been identified in the Prosperity of Saqqez neighborhoods Using MicMac software and then these key factors were graded using the copras model at the level of 22 neighborhoods of Saqez city and GIS is used for visual expression. In this study, 49 indicators have been used in five dimensions in order evaluation of Prosperity indicators. 14 key indicators are known using MiceMac software.‌ Research results show that according to the Prosperity indicators of 22 neighborhoods of Saqez city; neighborhoods 16, 19, 4, 11, 10 have little effect which are located in the southeast of the center and west of the city and neighborhoods 22, 21, 9, 2, 20.1 are in a better position to achieve prosperity which are located in the southeast, center and north of the city. Must be said spatial improvement and proper distribution of revenues, Greater cohesion and participation, the possibility of access to neighborhoods with low impact on parks and educational services and better distribution of indicators, especially indicators of productivity and quality of life are the most important proposals at the neighborhood level. 

Due to the existing competitive environment and the development of new technologies in the age of globalization, UN-Habitat has taken a new approach in the field of urban development; a holistic and integrated approach to promote welfare and play a public role. This new approach helps cities in better management of the future of the city in the economic, political, social and environmental fields. This approach is called urban prosperity. Prosperity means success, wealth, progress, health or felicity. Urban prosperity creates a sense of individual and public social and economic security for the present and future of cities and it is realized of other immaterial needs and desires and the indicators of urban prosperity are complex and it's a multifaceted issue and understanding these complexities, accessibility indicators, valuation and measurement are important. The spatial structure of a city consists of components and elements and is with each other in interaction and each of these components will be affected on the whole structure. These indicators of urban prosperity are expressed as an urban prosperity cycle; includes: productivity, infrastructure, quality of life, social dimensions and environmental sustainability. In recent decades, Iranian cities encountered with rapid and unstable development and this does not end with urban development and there is a lot of problem, these problems are significant in cities. In the meantime, a multifaceted look and tool must be considered to address urban issues and challenges to guide cities towards real development to achieve this, the CPI is effective. The Urban Prosperity Index was introduced through the UN-Habitat Program and in Iran in the year 2016, it coincided with the start of the city council elections; the approaches of each study must change in accordance with the characteristics of the defined society and be localized. Optimal results can be one of three modes; Intermediate, critical, desirable which is done according to the situation of cities in the future. Optimal condition is required to vision and planning.

The research method is descriptive-analytical by nature and is done with a functional purpose. In this research, first, it was dealt with a systematic and structural view Review of theoretical literature on urban prosperity then effective indicators and variables were extracted in urban flourishing in five dimensions (Productivity, infrastructure, quality of life, equality and social participation and environmental sustainability), it has been done based on theoretical foundations and using the Delphi method. In the second stage Indicators were analyzed In the MicMac software environment and was scored using the interaction technique (structural analysis method) finally, key factors were extracted in urban prosperity and in the next step leveling in the neighborhoods of Saqez city using the Copras Model. Finally, some suggestions were made.

In this research, 49 indicators of urban prosperity have been measured in 5 dimensions and in Mikomak environment the results indicate,14 key indicators are important; Including creative forces, specialization, life expectancy, unemployment, production, participation, existence of universities, educational services, mortality, industry, mobile services, transportation costs which are known as controlling and influential forces on the open system. The assessment shows this on how to distribute the key factors of urban prosperity in 22 neighborhoods of Saqez city with the Copras Modelm, There has been a huge difference in terms of indicators at the neighborhood level so that neighborhoods 16, 19, 4, 11, 10 were among the neighborhoods with low impact. These neighborhoods are unsuitable neighborhoods in terms of productivity index which are located in the southeast, west and center of the city in these neighborhoods, working conditions have been low due to the greater instability in the dimensions of employment and income, which will be much less depending on the amount of financial support and predict when to get a new job and so on has made more attention. Essential to the mentioned neighborhoods these neighborhoods are unsuitable in terms of infrastructure index and the importance of access is essential to parks and spaces and it can be said that these neighborhoods are in a lower degree in terms of social participation they are located in relation to other neighborhoods. It is necessary to pay attention to these sub-indicators in order to provide prosperity in the area of these neighborhoods, to identify the key issues and problems of these neighborhoods finally, take an appropriate intervention approach. These neighborhoods are at a low level with high population density and incompatible uses and educational services. In these neighborhoods, residents' access to educational centers has faced problems due to the small width of the passages and the instability of the cross section and permeability. The process of proper access to these centers should be on the agenda especially in neighborhoods 16 and 19 and with the support of the public and government sectors and it should be noted that The revitalization process should not lead to the loss of the identity of these neighborhoods. Intervention in these neighborhoods must be maintained structural values and physical properties as well as nature No building materials have been used in these neighborhoods Complies with standards and do not have the necessary retrofitting facilities. This is the instability of buildings and structures a great threat to the lives of the residents of these neighborhoods and increase mortality in the face of natural disasters and it changes the life expectancy of the residents and neighborhoods 22, 21, 9, 2, 20, 1 are in the first ranks in order to achieve the prosperity of Saqez neighborhoods.

The result of the research showed that Productivity and quality of life indicators have higher scores and infrastructure, social, and sustainability indicators have the lowest scores among the indicators of urban prosperity which can be a great guide for urban management.

The aim of this study was to investigate and design scenarios for resolving the identity challenge in the Islamic Republic of Iran. This study employed a futuristic approach to the category of identity. It counts as the strength and novelty of this study that distinguishes it from the previous ones in the literature. It is widely thought that in a world fraught with of uncertainties, having access to the panel and the possibility of achieving a clear vision of national and social identity as well as resolving the identity challenge can strengthen national cohesion and pave the way for development. Thus stated, the present research puts forth a question as what scenarios are liable to determine resolutionary approaches to break away from identity challenge in Iran 1410? In doing so, we used quantitative and qualitative methods along with Peter Schwartz's scripting method. Besides, insofar as data collection is concerned, we reviewed the research literature and documents in the form of library method and recruited the "Delphi-fuzzy method". What is more, we used structural analysis method grounded on interaction matrix tables which is based on "MicMac" software. For designing scenario, we employed  "Scenario Wizard" software.Our findings indicate that there are 5 key uncertainties related to the identity Challenge in Iran, including "media development", "pluralism-tolerance", "educational system evolution", "political culture" and "development and efficiency". Accordingly, there are three proposed scenarios such as "exclusivism", "breaking away from the identity Challenge", and the scenario of "the continuation of the current situation with the highest degree of probability."

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the South Caucasus became a battleground between regional powers and superpowers due to its rich energy resources, transit geopolitics, proximity to the Caspian Sea, and economic opportunities.  This strategic importance for Iran was greater than the fact that the region affects Iran's regional security and provides many economic opportunities for the country that can help lift economic sanctions. Foreign relations between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan are more critical between these countries. Research on the relationship between countries suffers from methodological gaps and shortcomings. Thus, this study attempts to cover these weaknesses and develop and validate a model of relationships between the countries.

 To achieve the objectives of the research, the following research questions have been developed: What are the main factors and variables of the structure of foreign relations between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan? What is the interaction and behavior of these variables in the system of bilateral relations and what is their nature?

According to the research questions and objectives, the following hypotheses are proposed:The developed model of Iran-Azerbaijan relations is a valid model that corresponds to environmental realities.The validated model shows an acceptable fit index in SPSS. The extracted variables can predict the future of foreign relations between the countries.

This study uses a multi-method, multi-step design that combines structural equation modeling (content analysis, exploratory factor analysis, and confirmatory factor analysis) in SPSS and interaction analysis in Mic Mac. In the first phase, a content analysis was carried out in which literature review, documentary research and semi-structured interviews with experts resulted in the extraction of 33 variables. Then confirmatory factor analysis was conducted and based on Eigen Value and Factor loading, 20 variables under five different factors were extracted and confirmed. In the second phase, a crossed impact analysis was done with experts in MicMac software according to which the behavior and nature of variables were identified and reported.    The theoretical framework: The theoretical framework that guided the entire study from data collection to data analysis was the regional integrated security theory proposed and modified by Buzan and Waver (2003) Which is in stark contrast to traditional approaches in security studies and foreign relations because it has shifted attention from the global focus to the regional level. It has four main dimensions and covers the issues of border, polarity, anarchist structure, and social construction.

The data showed that the valid model of foreign relations between countries has five major dimensions that include economy, survival and stability, hegemony, legal and political, and socio-cultural dimensions with twenty different variables at least. Cross-impact analysis where the identified variables are divided into impact variables (critical and environmental variables), two-dimensional variables (risk and target variables), dependent variables, and independent variables (exceptional and secondary-leverage variables).    

It was concluded that structural equation modeling could provide a robust and validated model of foreign relationships between Iran and Azerbaijan and explain these relations' direction and intensity in different dimensions.  It was also concluded that the constructed model shows indicators of a good fit with the geopolitical realities of the South Caucasus. These findings obtained in the interaction analysis can be used as a valid input for scenario development and forecasting of foreign relations between countries.

Main question: taking into account the dependency of I.R.Iran to export of crowd oil and other petrochemical products, Iranian economics is highly sensitive toward foreign exchange market and it's turbulances.
The aim of this research is to identify elements that affect foreign exchange market and it's turbulence, and so, helps the policymakers in their decision making at national level.
Research

after a thorough literature review and conducting interviews with experts, we used thematic analysis to identify main effective elements in turbulence of foreign exchange market. Then we proceeded to use cross impacts between identified elements, by help of MICMAC software solution.