جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « probable scenarios » در نشریات گروه « علوم سیاسی »

Effective supply chain plays a significant role in the production and distribution of petroleum and petrochemical products in the country. This study seeks to identify key factors and plausible scenarios for the future supply chain of the oil industry.

This research is applied from the point of view of orientation and it is positivist from philosophical point of view and it is a multiple research.For this purpose, the key factors affecting the future of the oil supply chain were identified by reviewing the literature and interviewing the experts and then using these binomial tests were screened. Two GBN and Dematel techniques were used to select the final key forces. The probable scenario was chosen with one of the decision making techniques.

Using GBN and DEMATEL techniques, two key forces of external sanctions and macroeconomic policies related to strengthening were selected for mapping the scenarios. Based on these two key forces, the four scenarios of closed supply chain, fragile supply chain, robust supply chain and dynamic supply chain were developed. Each of these scenarios represents a situation for the future of oil supply chain. According to the criteria of conformity with internal trends, conformity with international trends, probability based on reality, and consistency with current data, closed supply chain scenario was selected as the most probable scenario.

Dynamic supply chain shows the best situation in terms of reducing external sanctions and appropriate reinforcement policies and on the other hand, the closed supply chain describes an isolated and vulnerable system to threats.

In this study, the researcher is looking for future studies of Iran and Saudi Arabia’s foreign relations based on transitions of Arab world. In order to have a correct and scientific research, first, this question arises that what is the most important future for Iran and Saudi Arabia’s foreign relations based on the geopolitical transitions of Arab world. In the path of finding the answer, five more sub-questions are raised. This research is designed as an applied research in which the researcher uses an analytical – explanatory methodology (the snowball method). In this method, 25 members of faculty and elite with specific characteristics were selected and were asked through questionnaire. The components, indicators and items were carefully assessed by these experts. After confirmation of the reliability and validity, the Friedman Test was used to analyze the results. The most important results from the items and indicators analysis show that: three potential, probable and desirable futures are predicted for Iran and Saudi Arabia’s foreign relations following transitions of Arab world (Yemen, Syria, Iraq, etc.). And the most influential factors in future studies of Iran and Saudi Arabia’s foreign relations are defensive, cultural, and political, social and economic factors (in order of importance). The researcher also concludes that no bright future lies ahead of Iran and Saudi Arabia relations and it can be explicitly stated that these relations will be even darker in future. The strategic considerations on relations with Saudi Arabia should be taken by outlining goals ...

In this article-that is derived from a PhD thesis-the researcher is looking for raising probable scenarios based on Arabic zone evolutions. In order to fulfill this study correctly, first this question appears “What are the most important probable scenarios in foreign relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia based on Geopolitical evolutions of Arabic zone”? The research type is practical and the method is descriptiveanalytical (using the snow ball method). In this method 25 professors and elites with special traits were chosen and asked through a questionnaire, that through these experts, components, index and items were analyzed and finally the questionnaire was sent to them. After confirmation of reliability and validity of the questionnaire, the Friedman test used for analyzing the results. The most important factors according to Friedman test, in future studies of 5 components of foreign relations of Iran and Saudi Arabia were: Islamic Ideology of the Revolution (exclusively related to influence of the Revolution), Situation, Ideology (quarrels such as perception of Islam, etc.), structural quarrels, Military skills. The most remarkable and effective component in formulation of probable scenarios in foreign relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in order of importance are: Defensive, Cultural, Political, Social and Economic that the probable scenarios are based on this basis. Also the researcher comes to this conclusion that the most important effective and regional evolutions in relations between the two countries are: evolutions of Yemen, evolutions of Iraq, evolutions of Syria, evolutions of Bahrain, evolutions of Lebanon and Palestine etc. So it is recommended that strategic considerations regarding the relations with Saudi Arabia should be taken by drawing stage goals and step-by-step movements.