جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « scenario planning » در نشریات گروه « علوم سیاسی »

The significant effects of the corona infectious disease require fundamental changes in various fields such as the health tourism industry, which are more and more important in the post-corona era. Health tourism is one of the most important types of tourism in our country. Now, it should be checked what the status of this important industry will be in the post-corona era. Therefore, the main goal of the current research is to analyze the health tourism situation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the post-corona era, which takes a futuristic view. The method of the current research is mixed that investigates the issue using a sequential exploratory approach. In this research, two methods of "scope review and scenario planning" have been used, respectively. According to the findings of the first phase, 6 components and 55 main indicators were extracted from among 58 qualified researches, and 25 main indicators were considered as the drivers of this field in the review through the expert panel process. In the second phase, using the quantitative method of scenario planning, four main scenarios were compiled, which are in the form of the health tourism situation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the post-corona era. From the results of the current research, we can point out the role of each of the scenarios in different situations, which can create sustainable health tourism in the country in the best and most favorable possible state.

Russia's military conflict in Ukraine, which began in February 2022 has global dimensions and various effects on the politics, economy and security of the international system. In the meantime, the evaluation of possible scenarios has a special place from the perspective of future studies.The main question of this article:What scenarios can be imagined if Russia uses nuclear weapons? The hypothesis that is raised following the mentioned question is that the use of nuclear weapons by Russia will have major geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic effects for global security in the short and long term. The present article tries to present some possible scenarios in relation to the future of this war and its effects on the international system in the framework of scenario planning and using the descriptive-analytical method with emphasizing on component of nuclear weapons.For this purpose, offensive realism has been chosen as theoretical framework to better explain the behavior of the Russian government in Ukrainian war.The findings of the research show that Russia's use of nuclear weapons can, on the one hand, lead to a mutual reaction by the United States and NATO, and on the other hand, instead of helping to disarm nuclear weapons, lead to its spread

The Palestine issue has held a central position in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Since its inception, the Islamic Republic of Iran has pursued a policy of non-alignment and protection of Muslims, marked by the non-recognition of the Israeli regime and the protection of Palestinian rights. This article aimed to elucidate the foreign policy perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding the Palestine issue, with a primary focus on formulating possible, likely, and desirable scenarios for Iran’s future foreign policy on this matter.

As an exploratory endeavor, the present research employed a qualitative research method, which consisted of two stages: an initial exploratory study involving extensive reading and subsequent interviews. The research did not involve a statistical population; instead, a community of experts comprising 21 individuals was selected through the snowball sampling method.

The interviews were conducted until reaching the saturation stage. Then, nine themes were identified through thematic analysis. The identified themes encompassed the main statements derived from the interviews. They are as follows:Prioritizing the Palestine issue and emphasizing its significance in Iran’s constitution, as well as the necessity of supporting anti-Israeli resistance according to Imam Khomeini’s perspective, as national religious duties and fundamental pillars of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran;Supporting the resistance front, fostering unity, aligning goals among resistance groups against Israeli dominance, and establishing strong ties with countries that maintain anti-Israel policies;The lack of public incentive to support Palestine attributed to distrust in domestic policymakers, divisions among Muslims, and lack of consensus and a single voice on the part of the regional superpower concerning the Palestinian cause;Potential compromises involving recognition of the Palestinian government, alongside the importance of Islamic unity and awakening;Supporting Palestine as a national project, requiring a unified stance and support from all branches of government, including political, economic, social, military, and cultural sectors, as well as academic and research institutions;Supporting the resistance front and pursuing common goals against Israeli monopolization, while fostering strong relationships with the countries opposing Israel;Advocating for international laws pertaining to Palestine, planning and overseeing referendums, and championing the right to self-determination;Highlighting Israeli vulnerabilities, dismantling the perception of Israeli invincibility, exposing the true nature of Israel, and refusing to recognize it;Restoring the lost rights of Palestinians and reclaiming control over their territories;Achieving absolute dominance in the Middle East and gaining control over its financial and economic resources as Israel’s main objective, in addition to its strategic positioning.

In conclusion, the following strategies are recommended for Iran’s foreign policy on Palestine. First, the regional crisis indicates that the Middle East experiences the highest political and security unrest compared to other regions. This is primarily due to the conflicting security policies pursued by actors with different identities. The United States has focused its national security strategies on the Middle East. Iran should aim to create a regional and Islamic identity among the actors in order to foster constructive interaction. Each country in the Middle East has its own identity incentive to play its political role. Therefore, any regional innovations by Iran in addressing the Palestinian conflict and promoting Middle East peace should take into account making an identity model. The emergence of Islamic groups has transformed the nature of conflicts in the region, highlighting the influence of identity and ideological trends. These factors have also imposed limitations on the United States and Israel.Second, the redress of Palestinian rights is the main issue in the Middle East. Iran should play a role in establishing a strong, integrated government in Palestine as a first step towards finding an Islamic identity and reducing ongoing bloodshed in theregion. Other countries must recognize the Palestinian government. Third, the increasing conflicts in Palestine keep the peace proposal to come into effect and help stablish two governments in this region. Iran’s foreign policy goal on Palestine should be to support the idea of establishing a unified Palestinian government based on the majority demands. Organized support for Palestinian fighters is necessary under these circumstances. However, if Palestinian groups reject Iran’s policy, a new wave of anti-violence policies will emerge in the region. Therefore, revolutionary movements in Palestine should be recognized internationally, especially by the Islamic world. This recognition will help protect the revolutionary identity and resistance in Palestine by preventing Israel from repressing them.  Finally, Iran’s foreign policy towards Palestine relies on the support of its own people. It is crucial for Iran to maintain and protect this public support at any cost. While the current support is largely based on religious beliefs, the government should also clarify other aspects of its policy to the people. Addressing any questions or concerns that arise will help reinforce Iran’s policy on supporting the Palestinian cause. Therefore, Iran’s foreign policy on Palestine should be backed by comprehensive national support, and any compromise in this regard is tantamount to compromising Iran’s Islamic and revolutionary identity.

The United States has made many efforts to establish peace between the Arabs and the Zionist regime over many years. In recent years, the United States has created major challenges for the region by transferring the Zionist regime from the European area of its army to the area of CENTCOM command. Therefore, the current research aims to predict the political-security consequences of the presence of the Zionist regime in the command area of CENTCOM against Iran, drawing the scenarios resulting from this issue until 2028. The current research is applied in terms of purpose. In terms of nature and method, it is an exploratory description based on the GBN (Global Business Network) scenario writing method. The statistical population includes 35 professors of armed forces universities, commanders, and managers in strategic jobs. Identification of key factors and driving forces has been done using library studies, brainstorming methods (expert panel), and scoring key factors and driving forces was carried out using expert opinions. To draw the scenarios, the scenario analysis method based on seven steps of scenario writing with the approach of critical uncertainties was used, and with the opinion of experts and quantitative analysis, four possible, believable, and likely scenarios were finally created with the titles of "Establishment of a Convergent Regional Security-Political System" ( Miraculous Believable), "Regional Political-Stable Regional Security Agreement" (Optimistic Believable), "Regional Political-Security Stable Conflict" (Possibly Pessimistic) and "Regional Political-Security Nato" (Possibly Catastrophic)..

Artificial intelligence as an evolving technology, great economic and social benefits have been drawn for the future. This technology can be created in the way of life, work, learning, discovery and revolution. This research has been conducted with future research and the aim of drawing scenarios for the future of Iran's labor market with the emergence of artificial intelligence the horizon of 2032. The current research is applied in terms of its purpose and in terms of its nature and method, it is an exploratory description based on a qualitative approach in order to conceptualize and provide analysis. The methods of gathering information and the method of analysis and analysis included the examination of scientific and specialized libraries, brainstorming, news panels, and the use of future research methods such as the future cycle, stakeholder analysis, and the global business network scenario model. Using the combination of these methods, 9 actors, 52 drivers and four uncertainties were identified, and as a result of the interaction of uncertainties, 16 uncertain states were created, which were finally drawn with the approval of experts, 5 plausible scenarios. These five scenarios, which were named "smart service", "monopoly", "sarafa world", "destructive competition" and "markets", can be used to help policy making in the field of market and work in this field.

In a general view, Media Literacy refers to the abilities necessary to exploit the beneficial capacities of the media and create security against the unwanted consequences of the media. The purpose of the present research is to identify the most important strategies for institutionalizing the future of media literacy in the country and to create a clear understanding for the policy makers of the media field to prepare in advance and help make the most rational decisions in this field. The research method is scenario planning and theoretical framework is James Potter's theory. The findings of the research indicate the highlighting of factors such as "the attachment of Media Literacy to laws and policies", "the coordination of Media Literacy education with scientific institutions", "the use of Media Literacy experts in government policy making", "the operational view of managers towards Media Literacy as one of the skills vital of life", "accreditation of radio and television to the audience" and as a result of identifying two critical uncertainties of "audience-centeredness" and "elitism" and shaping the logic of scenarios that research strategies will be formed from the interaction of these two factors.

The environment of most industries has become more uncertain and the growing uncertainty has led human resource planning to new approaches, including foresight. Iran's banking industry also needs to foresee its human resources development based on scenarios in order to face alternative futures and build a favorable future. Therefore, the current research was carried out with the aim of drawing scenarios for the development of human resources in the banking industry of Iran with the approach of mutual effect analysis, which in terms of practical purpose, in terms of mixed nature, and in terms of the implementation path, includes survey steps, mutual influence analysis matrix and scenario development method. The statistical sample of the current research includes experts who are academically or experimentally specialized in at least one of the three fields of foresight, human resource development, or banking, and have relative familiarity with the other two fields. Identification of experts was done with the help of "snowball technique" and continued until the data reached theoretical saturation. The Delphi method was used to identify the drivers of human resources development in the banking industry based on the opinions of experts. Based on the compatibility analysis of different states of key factors in the Scenario Wizard software, the feasibility of four scenarios with strong internal consistency was shown, and these scenarios were named and described. At the end of the research, suggestions were presented to the managers and trustees of the Iranian banking industry.

America in the Post-Corona Order; continued contrast of hegemony survival and Delegitimation ChinaAbstractMany years have passed since the popularization of the term post-American order, an order that most researchers think is centered on China. In the meantime, the emergence of the Corona epidemic and its transformation into a global crisis, and more importantly, the lack of leadership, as well as the failure of the United States in this pandemic, caused some to call it the cause of the decline of the hegemony of the United States. this study focused on the Post-Corona international system of  in the dimension of hegemony and anti-hegemony [America and China], is trying to answer the question based on scenario writing and Delphi technique; Will Corona lead to the fall of Washington's hegemony and replace it with Beijing or not? Studies show that the fall of American hegemony is naive for several reasons. Because America's lead over China will remain. But China with modeling its image as a savior. In the Corona era, due to the success in curbing it and also creating a line of global friendships with most countries by taking advantage of Mask's diplomacy, it has entered the stage of delegitimization of the US-led order. Now it has to be seen if the leaders of Beijing, considering this increase in their influence, will have the desire and will to finish this stage and enter the final stage of the power cycle or not? Something that is currently, if not impossible, but it will definitely be complicated and challenging.

The COVID-19 virus-related catastrophes are on the rise around the world, and the threat and rising global economic costs that accompany them have made the disease a catastrophe and severely affected the vulnerable population. . Threats to urban life are doubly important today. while explaining the future status of the livability research in the metropolis of Tehran, in order to determine the possible future situations, the key factors and the relationships between them were analyzed and ranked. Based on this, the present research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology, using the Delphi technique and consulting 30 experts, . By determining the key factors and input parameters, a total of 51 key drivers for Word were prepared in Micmac software. Of the 2,550 values calculated in the initial cross-matrix, 826 were highly impacted, 1,058 were moderately impacted, 666 were low-impact, and 51 were highly rated. Assessing the impact and effectiveness of key factors shows that among the six main factors, urban environment (S) and urban housing services and infrastructure (S), the most influential dimensions on the development of the metropolis of Tehran. Also, the 14 key and important drivers of air pollution variables (U1), the presence of vermin (U3), the life of public spaces (U6), the exchange of views of city managers in decisions related to issues and crises (M4), the necessary knowledge Citizens have been most important to participate in decision-making and decision-making in times of crisis (M5) as two-dimensional and influential variables.

Many of higher education institutions, given concerns about the cost and value of higher education, are trying to plan for a emergent future and to survive the severe pressures of public oversight, low budgets, and competition for students and resources. The changing conditions in the mechanisms of providing higher education services, innovations in the financing of the university system, climate change, future cultural-territorial issues, the student population and the future workforce highlight the need for adopting a future-oriented and interdisciplinary approach to the dimensions of governance in the higher education sector. In this study, by examining future texts, higher education research and future studies models that have an interdisciplinary nature, a qualitative framework is presented by combining processes and concepts with the help of expert methods. The main purpose is to implement a higher education foresight canvas in the field of higher education and governance advices in relation to the future. Foresight canvas leads to extracting alternative futures of higher education, analysing emergent forward environment and also designing roadmap for governing of this field.

This study was conducted to identify future scenarios in the field of media literacy and to explore alternative futures in Iran.

Scenario planning or scenario designing with exploratory approach has been the research method. It is conducted in several steps from identifying factors affecting the future of media literacy to discovering future uncertainties, creating scenario logic, describing scenario narratives, strategic identification and analysis of opportunities and threats relating to each scenario and ultimately identifying strategies for the future in relation to each scenario.

In this study, with the experts opinion analysis, 30 factors affecting the future were identified and analyzed perceptually/cognitively.

The results of the study indicate the importance of factors such as "the need to attach media literacy to executive and educational laws and policies", "coordination of media literacy educators with scientific institutions and associations", "cooperation of media literacy professionals in government policy", "managers of different levels consider media literacy as one of the vital skills of life, "radio and television accreditation to the audience" and thus identification of two critical uncertainties as "audience-orientation" and "Elitism" that form the scenarios for the future of media literacy in Iran.

Studying and recognizing past trends; Present Processes and explaining events and paths in the Future is the basis for decision-making in International Politics and Foreign relations in order to adopt appropriate Strategies. The Middle East has long been Considered a geo-strategic region for major powers such as the United States from the point of view geo-political theory, Geopolitical Imagination of Super Powers of Sensitive Global regions can affect their activity in the international system. In its Foreign policy the United States has always Considered the Middle East as a Strategic area that has Capacity to pursue its trans – regional interest and exerted influence in the region at Various times and With a Variety of Policies. The Main question of this article is how to predict the US Middle East Foreign policy under Biden era the Based on different Scenarios and Futures models? This is a Research Using a Future Study Framework based on Extend Present and with the Script Writing method they Study see to Explain and delineate the Four Future of Biden – era US Middle East foreign policy. The present paper hypothesizes that, based on Future Study Four Probable Scenarios can be considered for the Future of Biden’s Middle East Policy.

Considering the importance of Geopolitics Yemen and bob al-mandeb strategic strait in global trade and energy security and the Saudi Arabia, under the pretext of returning the Yemeni runaway president, created a coalition of reactionary governments in the region and with the support of Western countries launched a comprehensive military invasion against the revolutionary government and the oppressed people of Yemen and besieged it. In this way, Yemen's political transformations became a security issue on the regional level that is accompanied by complexity and uncertainty.

The study employs developmental and applied method with respect to research's objective and utilizes case-based approach and was based on both quantitative and qualitative research techniques due to the mixed nature of research. Required data, according to G.B.N scenario-planning approach, were gathered in three ways: exploratory studies, library note-taking and interview with 20 experts in Yemen's subject and then the views of 37 officials involved in Yemen's political-security transformations with a full-scale approach using questionnaire. Data analysis was done using statistical analysis. Cross Impact Analysis by mick mac software and mean scores of experts extracted by Friedman test with SPSS software.

Based on the results of the research, According to experts, out of 34 factors, 19 factors are the most important key factors the key on Yemen political-security transformations, two critical uncertainties determined and four scenarios for Yemen’s political-security transformations as well as its indicators have been compiled.

One of the most important duties of governments in the world is planning for the development of public sports. Public sports are closely related to physical and mental health of the community. Developing plans for public sports is influenced by macro-processes, actions, events and various elements that are often uncertain and cannot be accurately predicted. Therefore, decision-makers need to know the possible opportunities of the future. The current study aims to spot the opportunities standing in front of Iranian public sports. 

This research is qualitative and applied. The statistical population included elites on sports management, sociology of sports and sports law as well as technology, politics, culture and futures studies.A snowball sampling methods was applied to the research sample and 25 persons were selected purposefully. However, using Schwartz’s model, main drivers and components of the structure were obtained. Next, the wizard-scenario software was employed for structural analysis and examining relationships between uncertainties. Then, spaces of the scenario were extracted.

A number of four probabilistic scenarios were developed compliant with the future of public sports, namely, the happiness ecosystem(the most optimal possible scenario), health scanners (development of public sports in the middle class), stagnators (no change in circumstances) and downsizers (the most unfavorable possible scenario).

When each scenario narrated and the findings summarized in expert panels, strategic recommendations(flexible and practical in all 4 scenarios) were provided regarding the future of Iranian public sports for relevant managers and policy makers.

The emergence of water crisis and the spread of uncertainties in the context of sustainability and the future of water supply makes managers to make critical decisions about water resources management, taking into account the various processes and factors affecting it, in particular the consequences of climate change, population growth, political decisions, and so on.Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate systematically the factors affecting water resources in dimensions of resources together with consumption and define alternative futures in this context based on the considered factors.

Scenario development is one of the suggested tools that can be effective in assessing the future consequences of making decisions and implementing various strategic policies in water resourcemanagement field. This framework has been studied at regional level for Tabriz water resources. According to the nature of the research, structural analysis, scenario writing and Delphi methods have been used.

According to the results, 15 key factors are involved in the availability of water resources in Tabriz. Investigating the possible states in each factor eventually led to 47 possible situations. By thoroughly evaluating possible situations, 7585 possible scenarios, 9 plausible scenarios and 4 scenarios with high probability of future condition of water resources in Tabriz were identified.

According to the current situation, it was observed that there has been a considerable gap to the achievement of the fundamental goals of development and the desirable scenarios. Therefore, strategies and measures for achieving the most desirable future were introduced.

In recent years, the growth of technology has had a profound impact on human resources, and given the rapid changes in technology in the public sector, it is believed that technology will affect the nature of human resource processing in the future .The purpose of this study is to identify the most important consequences of technological change in the future of Iranian government jobs and possible scenarios in this direction.

The present research is applied-developmental in terms of purpose, descriptive-analytical in nature and mixed-based methodology (qualitative and quantitative). The method used in this research is based on scenario processing using Mick Mac software to identify key drivers.

After recognizing the factors shaping the future, macro trends and strategic drivers in the public sector, four scenarios were obtained under the titles of inexhaustible consumerism; value-creating government; the unsolved riddle and overnight.

It can be concluded that only in one scenario is it possible to achieve a favorable future with the growth of technology and its optimal use, reduction of government employment permanently and agility of the government. In fact, identifying the drivers, planners and macro-policymakers make us wonder which scenario we are moving towards, and if we want to move towards the desired scenario, the value-creating government scenario, which indicators should we turn into the desired one.

In this Study, the Integrated Approach of Scenario Planning and Institutioal Analysis and Development Analysis was employed to analysis the Human Made Climate Change on Sustainable Development in Iran. Thise paper is using the approach of Future Studies and the introduction of driver forces through the Delphi method in the form of scenarios to identify futures of sustainable development on the 12 –year horizen in Iran. In the first section, using the Causal Layered Analysis, the currenet state of the effects of Human Made Climate Change on different dimentions of Sustainable Development was investigated and then in the scenario planning section, different scenario was identified. The results of this study show that despite  the institutional structure supporting to distribute rent, the asymmetry  of information and power among various actors, intensification of path dependency, lack of active civil society, Lack of accountability and Transparency and isolation of the foreign relation, moving  torwards Sustainable Development will not provided. Conversely, with increased transparency, control over the distribution of benefit will leave out of reach of influential groups. In this regards, new supportive institutions are being developed to strengthen such a structure and with decreasing path dependency, economic sustainability will increase. Furthermore, environmental considerations not only do not bind but also are considered as a vital pillar.