جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « system dynamics » در نشریات گروه « علوم سیاسی »

Measuring the performance of the Center for Strategic Defense Research is more difficult than the private sector due to ambiguity in the objectives, the nature of the duties and the diversity of its employees. The purpose of this paper is to design a model for performance management of Center for Strategic Defense Research using a competitive approach and dynamical modeling of systems. The type of research is the exploratory purpose and the survey research method, which has been gathered by 18 management experts using required data. The research findings showed that there is no best criterion for assessing the performance of research and research centers, and the embotic model that represents the key factors of effectiveness octal measures are introduced to manage the performance of these centers. In this research, using a dynamic system approach, a dynamic model of performance management of research centers was presented. Then, with the aid of Vensim software, we examined the effects of different components of this model on each other in 6 different scenarios to determine which variables have the most impact on the performance management system. The results showed that if the research centers cut the planning policy, the share of internal processes (IP) and the open system (OS) up to 50%, the share of the HR (HR) model and teamwork also doubled and improved.

Measuring the impact of various factors on pension systems is not easily possible due to the multiplicity of influential variables and their change in long-term horizons. The purpose of this article is to provide a model by which the impact of early retirement laws on the pension fund can be predicted.

This study, using system dynamics and considering feedback loops, leads to understanding nonlinear behavior and recognizing the laws governing the phenomenon of early retirement, and designs and implements a model for analyzing the impact of the above pensions in the Social Security Organization. It seems to have the characteristics of the real world to a large extent.

The ratio of early retirees to ordinary retirees in 2051 will increase significantly compared to 2016.Increasing early retirement will also lead to a reduction in Insured and increase in retirees and survivors; So that an increase of one percent can reduce the organization's annual revenue by an average of 16,000 billion rials over the next 35 years.

The Approval of some laws, regardless of the consequences, can jeopardize the stability of the fund and the economic and social security in the long time. The model presented in this study shows that by maintaining the current situation, the demand for early retirement has an upward trend and will put a heavy financial burden on the organization. This issue requires the amendment of the above laws and the introduction of more restrictions on the use of early retirement.

Climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide, has dangerous consequences, the most important of which is global warming. The European Union, as a leader in reducing carbon emissions, has taken a number of key steps and set various policies and guidelines. Analyzing the actions and policies adopted by this union could help determine the correct strategy for environmental protection in our country.

This study presents a simulation model to analyze the effectiveness of EU policies to achieve related aims by 2030 to reduce carbon emissions, using a system dynamic approach to reduce carbon emissions.

The results show that the adoption of a policy alone cannot have the desired effect in reducing emissions. The results also indicate that the EU ETS emission management system alone has the lowest performance in reducing carbon emissions.

The scenario showing the adoption of the EU's three climate policies showed the best impact on reducing emissions by 2030. Among the moderating feedback loops on reducing carbon emissions, and in line with the EU's climate policy, action on energy efficiency and the EU ETS emission management system should be given more attention.

The oil industry is the most important source of government revenue and acts a commanding power in the economy, and due to the strategic importance, high volume of transactions in the industry, the concentration of revenue flows in one point, the complexity and natural monopolies in the industry, it is quite vulnerable against corruption. This research is aimed modeling and simulating the strategic problem of corruption in the oil industry to develop policies for controlling corruption in a twenty year horizon. To this end, using the system dynamics approach, the complexity variables of the corruption problem as to the oil industry system were identified in the form of feedback loops in accordance with Parsons' theory of systems. After initial simulation of the model, considering the existing situation, the development of anti-corruption strategies and policies in the oil industry has been addressed. Three strategies, including reducing the opportunities for corruption in the oil industry, reducing the demand for corruption in the oil industry, and increasing the capacity to fight corruption, as well as combined policies, were investigated. The results of the policy implementation for each strategy were analyzed, and a combination of three strategies was presented as the best anti-corruption policy in the oil industry of Iran.

Today, business face with new risks due to imbalances and changes in the market. After a while, in competencies in effectively managing the risks will result in negative impressions on the business. In these cases, Organizations have to apply new methods to solve risks in working atmospheres. One of the most efficient solutions to this, is knowledge management including risk management in different business processes. Accordingly, this research seeks to study on the possibilities of benefiting knowledge management along with electronic banking risk management having a system dynamics approache. This study also tries to present an applied model given birth through integrating knowledge and risk in order to reduce risks in electronic banking. Moving toward this goal, after a review on literature and related documents, first the key variables in knowledge management were recognized and on their bases the model dynamics hypotheseis was presented. Subsequently, the cause and effect diagram and also stock and flow diagram were illustrated and equation of model variables were derived. In the end, Following the process of testing and simulating dynamics model, also benefiting Vensim software, different scenarios were proposed to crat an applied version of the model. The results of selected scenarios showed an improvement in variables linked to the risk management process while benefiting knowledge management.

Sanctions have been imposed on the country with the aim of limiting Iran's oil revenues and, consequently, directly affecting economic growth. Due to the importance of the impact of sanctions on Iran's economic growth, predicting the effects of this important on the country's GDP, which is considered a fundamental factor in economic growth, is very important and has formed the main goal of the present study. In order to achieve the main goal of the research, a model has been developed to predict the impact of sanctions on the country's GDP with using system dynamics approach. In this regard, it should be noted that in the presented model is considered the relationship between data related to exports and imports, the supply of crude oil and its derivatives, as well as the country's GDP. It should be noted that selected period in the present study included a time period of 30 years, which began in 1996 and will continue until 2027. Modeling has been carried out with using the Vensim DSS software, and the results of the study suggest that if the government can in any way in the time period (2020-2027) reduce the intensity of sanctions about 20% or increase oil supply about 30%, respectively, GDP will grow about 8.71% and 18.46%.

Science and technology parks play an important role in knowledge-based economic network through human resources management (HRM) and in cooperation with various regional institutions. Therefore, developing and analyzing a model for human resource management at science and technology parks is essential due to the importance and the interactive nature of the matter. More importantly, a study of the current HRM models at science and technology parks showed that they operate mostly on the one of the levels and elements within the value network of science and technology parks. Accordingly, this study attempts to elaborate on the interactive model based on the holistic nature of the system dynamics approach and its focus on the interaction among the various components of a system. The proposed model was developed and tested following 15 sessions of group model building with the stakeholders, and different scenarios were identified and simulated. The simulation results showed that focusing simultaneously on motivation and human resource quality of staff, gradual withdrawal of support and also developing communications within park's tenants, especially those used for technology transfer, market development and intellectual and human resource exchange are highly effective on productivity of the model.

Most of revolution theories have tried to provide general framework for the revolution analysis while each revolution has got its unique attribute. As well as these theories have been developed mainly based on Cartesian- Newtonian thinking which is useful for simple problems but the revolution is a result of complex social system. Iran’s 1979 revolution is the one of most important revolutions in the world which has challenged the reductionism approaches. With this assumption، this paper tries to re-answer the question “why the Iran’s 1979 revolution has happened?” based on holistic (system) approach and system dynamics methodology. identification of problem’s structure is essential to explain and analyze the revolution. System dynamics methodology introduces proper tools for this purpose. According to system approach، social system problems such as revolution come from conflicting and incompatible relationships between system components. In this paper social system has been identified base on interactions between three sub-systems: economic، politic، and culture. So Iran’s 1979 revolution has been studied from three perspectives. Causal loop diagrams as suitable operational tools were used for modeling the integrations between these perspectives. A dynamic hypothesis as a theory of Iran’s 1979 revolution based on previous theories was recognized by these diagrams.