جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "trend" در نشریات گروه "علوم سیاسی"

Hassan Rouhani's foreign policy has been studied and researched, mainly from a discursive viewpoint. The current research, contrary to this practice, has tried to evaluate the foreign policy of Hassan Rouhani's administration from a performative viewpoint and based on the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran (in a broad sense). According to the trend analysis, Rouhani's foreign policy can be divided into six periods, with focus on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA): 1) From the beginning of the administration to the JCPOA agreement; 2) from JCPOA agreement to Donald Trump election as the 45th President of the United States ; 3) From Trump election to US withdrawal from JCPOA; 4) from the withdrawal of the United States from JCPOA to the failure of INSTEX and negotiations with Europe; 5) From the failure of negotiations with Europe to the election of Joe Biden; 6) Biden's victory in 46th US election and the efforts to revive JCPOA. Accordingly, the main question of this article is: "To what extent does the foreign policy of Rouhani administration served the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran?" The findings show that "Rouhani's foreign policy – due to its one-dimensionality and overfocus on nuclear negotiations and the lack of a successful balancing effort (inadequate balancing) at the domestic and foreign levels after the US withdrawal from the JCPOA – failed to meet an acceptable level of national goals and interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The purpose of environmental monitoring of issues is to increase cognition, facilitate and expedite their review and analysis. Given the breadth of the threat, various schools and security theorists discuss threats from different angles. Lack of proper understanding of future threats will lead to a lack of common language and more errors in analysis for defense decision makers. The knowledge-based defense approach is a tool to ensure the security of the country, using all the capabilities of knowledge defense. Using the capabilities of knowledge-based defense, it is possible to identify the threat and the threatened, the authority to deal with the threat and how to repel it by policy-making, development of guidelines and strategies. Therefore, the present article tries to identify the impulses and global trends affecting future military threats by environmental monitoring, and to express the importance of each from the perspective of knowledge-based defense. The present research is of applied-developmental type and in terms of method, descriptive-analytical. The sample size of this study includes 77 experts using stratified random sampling method. In this research, library and field methods have been used to collect information and closed interview and questionnaire tools have been used. The results of this study show that by using the capabilities and capabilities of knowledge-based defense components, it is possible to identify more future threats and provide a better platform to facilitate and expedite the review and analysis of threats to the country's defense system.

Security is the first and most important human need in society and has a prominent place in the prosperity of a society. Therefore, achieving sustainable public security is always a very important necessity and requires the identification of relevant trends and scenarios. The purpose of this study is to identify the security trends and scenarios of Iranian society on the horizon of 1424. The present research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of data collection and analysis method. The statistical population of the study consists of 12 experts in police. Library studies and field methods were used to collect information. To analyze the data collected of Cross-impact analysis was used using MICMAC software application. According to the findings of this study, 42 trends were identified in six general categories of social, technological, economic, environmental, political and value trends. Then, According three key uncertainties, four scenarios were created with the titles of insecurity, sustainable security, semi-sustainable security, unstable security, which Sustainable security scenario, is a favorable scenario for the general security of Iranian society.

Economic, political and social development in any country significantly depends on human capital and the knowledge created by them. Therefore, the immigration of these professionals and experts undoubtedly decreases or stops the rate of speed of development. Hence, maintaining, keeping and helping develop the manpower of these experts is of vital importance. Furthermore, identifying the factors which influence the decisions of these experts and prodigies causing them to migrate would make policy makers more aware of the reasons behind loss of human capital. As a result, new policies can be put in place to stop or decrease the future loss of human capital. This paper aims to identify and prioritize influencing factors on the brain drain trend so that it may be used for future policy-making as we are now in the midst of a forth wave of this phenomenon, and to also provide strategic futuristic tools. This was achieved using the Delphi Method. The findings obtained by this paper show that, in order of greatest degree of influence to least degree of influence, educational factors, livelihood, social factors, political factors, and economical factors will be the most important elements affecting the brain drain trend in the following years. This paper also provides recommendations, which are based on research findings, for policymakers to take into account.

The structure is one of the most important dimensions of the administrative system in each country, which describes the configuration and context of how the work, relationships, authority and organizational responsibilities at the national level are accomplished. The structure of the administrative system is influenced by several factors, some of which, in the form of superstructures, lead to the formation of trends within this system. The quality of the alignnig these trends in the form of appropriate strategies is the main issue of this research. The purpose of the study was applied and data were collected by descriptive-survey method through survey and questionnaire. The study population consisted of 49 experts from the administrative system who completed the designed questionnaires. In the qualitative part of the research, eleven experts participated in the process of coding and prioritizing the trends. Prioritizing quadratic strategies is done through a quantitative strategic planning matrix and analyzing the impact of drivers on strategies. According to the results of the research, the priority is to adopt strategies that can be indexed by the administrative system, so that these indicators can analyze the ultra organization functions of the administrative system.

Development 1 as freedom 2 from the perspective of Amartyasen 3 and political development where the role of society and the duty of government in a two-way complementary process as the goal of development has been the focus of research. Amartiasen on the one hand, emphasises the role of parties and uncensored publications, and on the other hand, influenced by Aristotle, on the state for interaction as measures of political development. This bilateral view of active citizenship and criticism of neutral state has put the paper in community method. The main issue of the research is the study of the political development of the Hashemi government so far based on the sen,smeasures, and the reply to the question how did political development trend in Iran from the perspective of Amartyasen? The hypothesis presents that the measures of political development in Iran were not complementary and continuous, so that political development in the sense of extending the fundamental freedoms enjoyed by society was not fully realized. This research has analyzed the subject by historical method

The purpose of this paper is to determine the basic alternative scenarios of the banking system in dealing with the problems and challenges of banks and proposing policies for challenges. The future of the banking system was systematically examined using the Schwartz model in scenario-writing in a hybrid approach (combining library studies, experts’ interviews, panels and Delphi). As a result, two uncertainties were identified: 1. transaction costs and 2. Structural issues; so four scenarios identified: no-crisis and development, development alongside barriers, crisis, and postponement of the crisis. Reviewing four scenarios shows the banking system has structural problems, including non-compliance with financial standards and legal weaknesses, and subject to crisis regardless of sanctions. To solve the basic problems of Iran’s banking system, a conceptual model for reforming the banking system based on the general policies of the resistance economy and the general policies of the sixth national development program was designed.

Civilization making is regarded as the highest level of strategic planning and also the most concern of thought and one of the most relent questions in the path of realization is discovering the causes of emergence of deviation and confronting the damages of this progress. Evaluating the records indicate that the deviation factors should be searched in external and internal factors. On the one hand, we witness the dash approaches, conflict, and confrontation and alienate of behaviors and cultural approaches of rival civilization as the external factors. On the other hand, internal damages and weaknesses particularly in the two types of derived reaction of imitation or extremism in the civilization approaches should be taken into consideration. The article is based on the analysis of the trends in the project future, damages, and the trends of deviation of the new Islamic civilization. The study concluded that the west has heard the whispers of failure due to its one-dimensional civilization and that is the rationale to follow the secret of the path of an alternative civilization and its rival in the Islam World. They are struggling to develop conflict and secretion war in order to achieve the prevention functions of the renewal the open-mindedness for the Islamic World. On the other sides, being away from the cultural authority and setting up the globalized identity and concentrating on the ethic and secretin aubcultures along with reaction thoughts and influced by modernity, cultural and social liberalism, strategic confusion, and prevented looking at a future full of horizon and also made the realization process of a new Islamic civilization vulurnable.