جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "uncertainties" در نشریات گروه "علوم سیاسی"

Artificial intelligence as an evolving technology, great economic and social benefits have been drawn for the future. This technology can be created in the way of life, work, learning, discovery and revolution. This research has been conducted with future research and the aim of drawing scenarios for the future of Iran's labor market with the emergence of artificial intelligence the horizon of 2032. The current research is applied in terms of its purpose and in terms of its nature and method, it is an exploratory description based on a qualitative approach in order to conceptualize and provide analysis. The methods of gathering information and the method of analysis and analysis included the examination of scientific and specialized libraries, brainstorming, news panels, and the use of future research methods such as the future cycle, stakeholder analysis, and the global business network scenario model. Using the combination of these methods, 9 actors, 52 drivers and four uncertainties were identified, and as a result of the interaction of uncertainties, 16 uncertain states were created, which were finally drawn with the approval of experts, 5 plausible scenarios. These five scenarios, which were named "smart service", "monopoly", "sarafa world", "destructive competition" and "markets", can be used to help policy making in the field of market and work in this field.

The environment of most industries has become more uncertain and the growing uncertainty has led human resource planning to new approaches, including foresight. Iran's banking industry also needs to foresee its human resources development based on scenarios in order to face alternative futures and build a favorable future. Therefore, the current research was carried out with the aim of drawing scenarios for the development of human resources in the banking industry of Iran with the approach of mutual effect analysis, which in terms of practical purpose, in terms of mixed nature, and in terms of the implementation path, includes survey steps, mutual influence analysis matrix and scenario development method. The statistical sample of the current research includes experts who are academically or experimentally specialized in at least one of the three fields of foresight, human resource development, or banking, and have relative familiarity with the other two fields. Identification of experts was done with the help of "snowball technique" and continued until the data reached theoretical saturation. The Delphi method was used to identify the drivers of human resources development in the banking industry based on the opinions of experts. Based on the compatibility analysis of different states of key factors in the Scenario Wizard software, the feasibility of four scenarios with strong internal consistency was shown, and these scenarios were named and described. At the end of the research, suggestions were presented to the managers and trustees of the Iranian banking industry.

The aim of this paper is to emphasize the importance of the foresight as a new paradigm in urban planning. In order to highlight this goal, in addition to pointing out theoretical perspectives and paradigmatic developments, Tehran's foresight activity findings also confirm the importance of foresight.

In order to identify the major impacts and essential drivers, methodologically, an environmental scanning model based on specialized panels (with a presence of 210 participants), internal foresight experiences, and a comprehensive understanding of national trends were used. In the next step, using the Delphi method and cross-effects analysis, key factors were identified.

The social and widespread presence of women, aging and increasing life expectancy, smart life and management, diversity in life styles and climate instability will be the definitive trends of Tehran over the next 15 years. However, along with the great macroeconomic trends, the three influential factors affecting the future of Tehran, which will result in five possible scenarios, are: the status of international relations of Iran with other countries; the status of political stability and relations between key domestic actors; the development situation in different regions of the country.

Combination of different modes of driving forces, different scenarios and images of Tehran possible future are extracted. Using the foresight findings, in addition to adopting a large-scale strategy, short-term plans and plans tailored to the macro strategy can be designed and implemented with greater readiness.

Islamic awakening is a process, not an emerging phenomenon, obviously indicators of Islamic awakening in Tunisia such as Islamism, popularity and ... can be seen. The purpose of this article is to outline what strategic recommendations can be put forward for the continuation of the Islamic awakening in Tunisia and, accordingly, tried to use the deep interviewing tool and its thematic analysis and scenario writing to be answered. Hence, using the Islamic Awakening literature based on the viewpoints of the Supreme Leader and using the views of elites and experts and who are aware of the political developments in Tunisia, identify the capacities, proponents and actors for the continuation of Islamic awakening, and by forming specialized panels have been awarded to them. Two key uncertainties of the people's tendency toward Islam and the support of the West and allies from the Salafist-Takfiri groups were extracted, and three scenarios: Islamic Renaissance, defeat, and progressive growth for the future conditions of the Islamic awakening in Tunisia, a combination of The scenarios were desirable and undesirable. Using the strategic recommendations provided to achieve the desired outlook and avoid the adverse outlook in the scenarios, 17 strategic recommendations were presented with a focus on structure and politics, culture, diplomacy and media, economics, politics, security and science-education.