جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « تغییر اقلیم » در نشریات گروه « علوم اجتماعی »

Given the close relationship between military affairs and climate change, military organizations need to consider the potential effects of climate change in their future planning and design. In this study, in order to investigate the effects of climate change on military activities in Isfahan province, we used the simulated output of the hadGEM2-ES paired model from the CMIP5 model series, based on RCP 8.5 (pessimistic) and RCP 4.5 (optimistic) radiation induction scenarios. Has been. Also using Misnard Bioclimatic Climate Index (ET) and also using GIS software in interpolation, generalization of point-to-area data and combination of maps, times and places suitable for military activity in terms of body physiology in Isfahan province during a 20-year statistical period (2019-1999) and for the next period (2040-2059). Data analysis showed that September is mostly in the province in optimal conditions for military activity, which in the basic period is more than two scenarios pessimistic and optimistic. Based on the results obtained in the summer, the highlands and in the spring, the lowlands of the province have been selected for optimal military affairs, and in the winter and autumn (November and December) cold conditions prevail, which according to the data obtained from the amount in the pessimistic scenario, the Misnard index tends to the lower edge of the cold class.

Media determine for public opinion or politicians that should think about what topics and the amount of importance of issues by using agenda-setting theory. There has been a lot of scientific researches on how to cover climate change news in different media in other countries, but in Iran as one of the top ten emitters of greenhouse gases that is also one of the world's most vulnerable countries to climate change due to its geographical location, such researches have rarely been done. This study is one of the first scientific researches that attempt to understand precisely how climate change news has highlighted in Iranian dailies.The theory of agenda-setting and quantitative content analysis has been used to achieve this goal, and fifteen well-known Iranian dailies reviewed from two weeks before to two weeks after holding the United Nations climate change conferences of Bonn 2017, Paris 2015, Copenhagen 2009 and Montreal 2005). Finally, have been gathered 3905 environmental articles that 388 articles were about climate change issues.The findings showed that the Iranian dailies had got a poor performance in highlighting climate change subjects. The news coverage of the conferences has decreased from Copenhagen to Bonn, indicating that as global warming and its consequences increased, the Iranian press's attention to the issue has diminished. As well as the political perspectives of dailies have been evaluated influential on how to highlight climate change news, and there were significant differences between them in the ways of covering climate change news too.

In recent years, climate change has had severe and far-reaching impacts on rural areas, especially on smallholder farmers, causing small farms to suffer more, produce less, and putting agriculture at risk. The fragility of smallholder livelihoods and well-being has complicated the response of smallholders to climate change. The aim of this study was to investigate smallholder farmers' perceptions of climate change and their lived experiences and semantic understanding of this phenomenon in smallholder farms in Hamadan province, as well as how they deal with it, using the phenomenological research method. For this purpose, a series of questions in the form of semi-structured and in-depth interview protocols were designed and 30 farmers were interviewed using Colaizzai method and Maximum Variation Sampling technique). Most farmers recognized climate change and associated it with numerous signs, such as decreasing rainfall, groundwater depletion, increasing heavy rainfall, rising temperatures, and shifting seasons, according to the data. The most important indicator of climate change, they say, is the occurrence of water shortages on farms. Farmers who participated in this study are reducing the quantity and quality of agricultural goods produced, increasing their use of chemicals to control pests or improve soil fertility, and increasing their expenses. Climate change has brought serious problems to agricultural management, with production being one of the most important negative impacts. The results of this study show that farmers have been both proactive and reactive in responding to the impacts of climate change, as well as non-responsive. The main responses of farmers to climate change included improving water management, diversifying livelihoods, changing cropping patterns, changing livestock and management practices, and expanding extension services and expert advice.

Road accidents are killing a large number of citizens every year and it is actually considered one of the serious issues of the country and Lorestan province. The main goal of this research is to analyze the vulnerability of the Khorram Abad-Boroujerd axis road transport network under climate change conditions.

The method used in the present study is double mass test, temporal-spatial analysis using Gis software and forecasting future conditions under the scenario and global climate model in a 30-year statistical period, which temporal and spatial analysis of data has been investigated by weighting method. In addition, linear regression has been used to investigate the relationship between accidents.

It showed that the most effective climatic indicators in this axis, which is the longest and most important axis of Lorestan province, are the maximum daily precipitation in the month and cold days. Also, the trend of indicators in the middle and end parts of this axis is decreasing and the amount of accidents shows the same trend. Unlike the beginning and end areas of the axis, two indicators affecting this axis in the middle areas show an increasing trend. The number of accidents during the statistical period affected by these two indicators is increasing.

The fit of the regression model for the studied axis is significant at the P 0.05 level and the most effective climatic indicators are the maximum one-day rainfall and cold days respectively. In the forecast estimates, the highest amount of accidents in the central parts of the axis is about 5-6% for two RCP scenarios of 4.5 and 8.5. The results of this research have been consistent with the research conducted under the headings related to climate and road accidents by Francois, Stoker et al. and Amlong and Wiener.

Although climate change affects all human societies, villagers are the most affected by, especially in developing countries. International organizations and scientific associations have given much attention and emphasis to community-based adaptation strategies. However, adaptation of villagers to climate change in Iran has been insufficiently studied in previous studies. This study aims to investigate villagers’ understanding of climate change in Meshkinshahr County, Ardabil Province, identify their adaptation strategies, and develop measures to improve their adaptive capacity. We used a quantitative approach and grounded theory method for data collection and analysis. The required data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 55 employees in the economic sectors (farmers, ranchers, gardeners) and coded and analyzed using ATLAS.ti software. The respondents believe that the increase in the frequency of droughts and wind, the number of hot days and the decrease in rainfall are related to climate change and have negatively affected their livelihoods in various ways. These include the reduction in the quality and grade of agricultural products, the decline in the water table, the degradation and destruction of pastures, the reduction in rural water resources, the reduction in livestock products, and the lack and high cost of agricultural inputs. In addition, villagers have developed various strategies to address these impacts, including rain-fed agriculture, water harvesting, drip irrigation, goat rearing, water consumption management, digging illegal wells, and migration to cities, to name a few. In addition, interventions such as education, developing insurance, providing financing and credit, developing modern irrigation systems, and marketing agricultural and livestock products were identified as measures to improve their adaptive capacity.

Most policy-relevant work on climate change in the social sciences either analyzes costs and benefits of particular policy options against important but often narrow sets of objectives or attempts to explain past successes or failures. We argue that an “applied forward reasoning” approach is better suited for social scientists seeking to address climate change, which we characterize as a “super wicked” problem comprising four key features: time is running out; those who cause the problem also seek to provide a solution; the central authority needed to address it is weak or non-existent; and, partly as a result, policy responses discount the future irrationally. These four features combine to create a policy-making “tragedy” where traditional analytical techniques are ill equipped to identify solutions, even when it is well recognized that actions must take place soon to avoid catastrophic future impacts. To overcome this tragedy, greater attention must be given to the generation of path-dependent policy interventions that can “constrain our future collective selves.

The subject of this study concerns Urmia Lake which is one of the most valuable water habitats in Iran and investigation of crisis in the drop n of water level, significant decrease in the lake’s surface area and increase in its salinity.. In order to have better understanding of the processes that affect the lake's water level fluctuations and assess the contributions of every responsible parameter, System water consumption was designed. System water consumption was designed in The Lake Basin in the Vensim and the effects of each variable on the water level of the lake were evaluated using a set of different scenarios The findings suggest that in comparison to other variables, the operation of dams (26%) as well as an increase of water requirement (16%) by variables have played a role in reducing the input to the lake. Climate variables had an effect of 16% within the time span of 1999-2014. Although Hydrograph indicates the aquifer deterioration in some of them, the entrance to the lake water budget is negligible

Escalation of climate changes in the world will lead to serious effects on urban environments and causes irreversible damage. The 10-year forecast of changes in climatic parameters in Tehran metropolis, which is always facing increasing environmental problems, indicates that the rate of precipitation and temperature until 2021 will increase more sharply compared to previous periods. These changes can lead to serious effects on and risks for the urban environment. Identifying the current and future effects of these changes on the urban environment can contribute to the planning for decreasing these risks and benefiting from the opportunities. In previous studies, the most important potential risks of changes in climatic parameters in Tehran are identified and, in this study, 11 potential risks of changes in temperature and precipitation in Tehran are chosen and then, by employing Fuzzy-Analytic Hierarchy Process (F-AHP), are weighted, ranked, and prioritized. Following that, some strategies are provided for preventing and decreasing the risks of and adapting with the changes in climatic parameters in order to be employed in 5-year planning of Tehran city. These strategies are developed using SWOT and Internal & External (IE) Matrix and consequently, in order to quantify the strategies, the Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) is employed. The results of this study indicate that the most optimal strategies are the defensive strategies.

The Islamic Republic of Iran, due to the utilization of hydrocarbon resources and positioned in the desert belt of the Earth, is one of the most important countries influenced and affected by climate change. Based on voluntary commitment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the country committed to reducing greenhouse emissions from 4 up to 12 % of its Business as Usual (BAU) at 2030 and, as well, take important steps in increasing its adaptation level. Identifying the national level of Structure, Weakness, Opportunity, Threats (SWOT) and also challenges and capabilities of the country to achieve an efficient strategic plan on climate change is the subject of the current article. In the current paper, in addition to identifying our national challenges resulted by the national development programs and strategies, describing the National Strategic Programs on Climate Change based on the expert consultation has been conducted. This program is based on four components of emission reduction, water resources management, food security and agriculture, and natural resources and biodiversity (biological resources) to examine the challenges, strengths, and weaknesses, and through a conceptual structure find its way out at two levels of macro and executive policies.