جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « demographic transition » در نشریات گروه « علوم اجتماعی »

The quality of governance can influence population dynamics. Using a theoretical framework comprised of demographic transition theory, modernization theory, and institutional theory, this study examined the effect of the quality of governance on transition of the total fertility rate from high to under the replacement level. 

The effect of the global governance indicators on the total fertility rate of 57 countries during 2002 to 2020 was examined applying the event history analysis on the World Bank data. 

The results revealed that more than 40% of countries reached the under-replacement fertility rate. Although all six indicators of the quality of governance had a positive and significant effect on achieving the replace-level fertility, after adjusting various aspects of governance and demographic, economic and geographic factors under study, only two dimensions of expressing opinion and accountability and political stability maintained their initial effect. 

Improving the quality of governance in the two aforementioned dimensions can lead to a decrease in fertility independently of other factors. Considering the decline of both indicators during the period under study, it is of particular importance to take the necessary measures to improve them. 

Due to the importance of demographic changes in Iran in the last four decades, the central theme of this article is the problem of family structure change using a review of vital events of birth, marriage, and divorce in the archives of the Civil Registration Organization. Theories of demographic transition, rational choice, and globalization have been used to analyze changes in family structure. Documentary method and secondary analysis have examined the statistics of births, marriages, divorces, the average age of mothers, changes in mothers' age groups, comparison of women's marriages and fertility by age group, changes in the ratio of 100 marriages to divorces. The results of studies showed that: Statistics of essential events from 1355 to 1395 in the provinces of Greater Khorasan, in addition to the impact of implemented policies, indicate a change in family attitudes and practices and, consequently, reduced fertility, reduced desire to start a family and marriage and There has been considerable growth in divorce. The average age of mothers has increased in all three provinces. The highest number of births in the mentioned provinces is mothers aged 25-25 and the lowest number of children to mothers over 49 years old. The result of comparing births in 1397 with 1389 based on the age group of mothers showed that the first rank of childbearing from mothers aged 20-24 to 25 to 29 years and the second rank of births from mothers aged 25-25 years has changed to 30-30 years, which indicates an increase in maternal age. It has in the mentioned provinces. Women under the age of 15 to 24 living in rural areas are more likely to have children than urban women in the same age group. According to the second population transition theory, the higher the development in a society, the higher the fertility rate, the lower the marriage rate, and the higher the divorce rate. On the other hand, the intensification of borderless social relations in the form of extensive communication networks and parents' rational evaluation of the economic, social, and cultural benefits of having a child, has changed attitudes and values in the family and provided the basis for changing family structure. 

Social capital has positive and negative consequences as social relations, trust and norms. The quantity and quality of relationships in a society play a central role in the type and consequence of social capital. The social capital in Iran more intra-group. Does such social capital play a role in reproducing social inequality? The research method was qualitative and data gathering was done through in-depth interviews with 12 people in the second half of 2017 in Sanandaj. The analysis of the findings has resulted in the extraction of a paradigm model with three main categories: social relations context, intergroup capital (core category) and social inequality. The results showed that many relatives, traditional family relationships and the rituals associated with it were causal conditions that led to intra-group social capital. Using Strategies such as ethnocentrism, nepotism and relationships rather than rules by actors with the underlying economic, political and cultural society and confounding factors such as bureaucracy and lack of supervision led to consequences such as favoritism, nepotism and variation in the distribution of resources All of which points to the reproduction of social inequality in society. It is therefore necessary to consider intra- group social capital in the analysis of social inequality as well as in the distribution of public resources.

Demographic transition with orientation towards "below replacement level fertility" has become the dominant feature of Iran's population. It seems that the economic, social and cultural conditions and also the attitude of people have a dominant role in this process. This transition started earlier in Guilan province and studies show that this province has the lowest fertility in the country. So the purpose of this paper is to describe and explain the sharp decline of fertility in the city of Rasht using the theoretical framework of the individualization of Giddens and Beck and Beck-Gernsheim and also the second demographic transition theory . The study was a survey which was conducted using a questionnaire technique and multi-stage cluster sampling method on a sample of 400 individuals. The results showed that the indicators of individualization are effective in reducing fertility. Multiple regression analysis showed that variables such as female education, the initial acquaintance of couples, mate selection pattern and employment of women have a crucial role in explaining the dependent variable. These findings illustrate that the changes in social attitudes and values and the spread of individualistic values in various aspects have played a significant role in reducing the number of children in the family.

Two waves of modernization, including white revolution (especially land reform and health programs) in 1960s and birth control programs in 1990s have been influencing demographic aspects of family institution in Kurdistan. This study tries to describe these impacts from a different point of view. Based on qualitative methodology and adopting depth interview, observation and thematic analysis techniques the processes and outcomes of implementation of these programs have come to be found. The results show that white revolution provided a context to transform extended family to core family and to experience the reduction of mortality. Birth control programs encountered Kurdish family to unpreceded low childbearing, small size of family and unintended fertility. Consequently, the major parts of current situation of family’s demographic structure refer to modernization elements, and undoubtedly continuation of this process brings new features of family changes to this society. The point is that the modernization has changed the life cycle of family in Kurdistan.

In recent years, due to the significant demographic changes and increasing young population in the country, including Kurdistan, there was too much demand for the labor, and it causes unemployed persons. In this study, the unemployment rate in Kurdistan province has been studied with emphasis on the youth. The main question was the trend of unemployment rate of the young population? Secondary analysis of census data related to employment and activities of the province in 1996-2006 was the method of research, and the unemployment rates were analyzed using Excel software. The results showed that the unemployment index increased from 9% in 1996 to 20.2% in 2006. The unemployment rate in all age groups in both urban and rural areas, (men and women) experienced ascending trend, more than doubled(the unemployment rate among women was remarkable), the youth unemployment rate increased from 16.5 to 37.6 percent. The findings showed the rate of unemployment among the educated was high in both periods, but the index 2006, 2.6 times have been more than and reached from 7 to 18.2 percent at that time. It seems this situation is due of increasing of young people in the province, and the lack of productive infrastructure. At last, with attention to the favorable geographical and strategic position of the region, solutions for policymaking have been offered in the paper.

Ibn Khaldun has played a major role in the shaping of pre-modern population theories. He has proposed some important issues and perspectives on the interaction of population dynamics and development. Thus, this paper attempts to explore Ibn Khaldun’s demographic perspectives and identify his approach to population and development interrelationship. The results indicate that Ibn Khaldun has introduced the dimensions and components of population growth in the context of demographic transition, and also he has discussed on the dynamic interaction of population and development. According to Ibn Khaldun, positive or negative impact of population growth on development and welfare depends on population structure and its quality on the one hand, and infrastructure conditions of society on the other hand. Therefore, Ibn Khaldun’s theory of development is based on his demographic theory. In addition, Ibn Khaldun has applied a multidimensional approach to analyze the relations between population and development. He has explained the mechanism of this relationship and its results in the connection with an array of environmental factors.

Gender inequality stems from social factors in each society. In theories of gender inequality, it has been assumed that family role in reproduction of gender inequality is of crucial importance (Bourdieu 2001, Chaftez 1999, dyson 2001). Demographic transition is one of the factors in the structure of family changes in recent century. Demographic transition is applied to changes from high levels of mortality and fertility to low levels (Lucas & meyer 2002). Demographic transition has some stages. In each stage, the population has special structure according to demographic characteristics such as decreasing family size, decreasing kinship relations, increasing women education, the more participation of women in work force and their higher independence. The education and employment of women leads to changes in power structure and marriage patterns. So, the institution of family differs in various countries according to different stages of demographic transition. This article is about the role of demographic transition in change in attitude towards gender inequality. Research sample includes 50 countries that are listed in World Value Survey for the year 2005. The demographic data has been prepared from population bureau of United Nations and gender inequality data has been used from World Value Survey, using cluster analysis for examining the above countries in terms of demographic transition. Research theoretical model is tested according to structural equation modeling and Amos software. Discussion of Results & The results of the study show that attitudes towards gender inequality are different in countries according to different stages of demographic transition. In Some counties such as Mali, India, Iraq, and Zambia, which are in primary stages of the first demographic transition, there is less negative attitude towards gender inequality. But countries which are in the second stage of their demographic transition, such as Sweden, Finland, France, United State, England, Russia and France, there is more negative attitude towards gender inequality. Countries such as Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia, which recently moved from the first stage of demographic transition to the next, are somehow between the two mentioned groups.The coefficient correlation between demographic transition index and attitude towards gender inequality is 0.58. Also, R Square is 0.34. It means that 34 percent of variance of attitude towards gender inequality is explained by demographic transition. The above relationship is not witnessed for countries such as Iran, Malaysia and Egypt. For these countries have gone through different stages of demographic transition, and they have less negative attitude towards gender inequality. Therefore, it can be said that changes of family structure by demographic transition differ according to social and cultural structure.In the present study, the demographic transition index is supposed to be an objective structure, leading to changes in gender inequality. These changes can be studied at two levels. At family level, family structure basically changes in the process of demographic transition. And these changes affect, in one way or another, child and gender sociability. At society level, demographic transition provides an opportunity for women to make themselves powerful and to try to earn different capitals, whereby decreasing the gender inequality gap. In conclusion, it can be said that the role of demographic variables should be considered in explaining changes of attitudes towards gender inequality.

According to estimates, more than 5/1 billion Muslims live around the world. Of this population, 45 percent are living in six Muslim countries: Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran, Turkey and Egypt. Until now, many factors such as levels of development and geographical regions have been considered a basis for the analysis of demographic trends. But it has been less attention to religion as a determinant of age structure changes. The story of demographic transition and its dimensions is essentially based on the pattern of Western Christian societies. Currently, many development experts believe that the development linear models are not efficient enough; hence there should be more attention to the social, cultural similarities and differences between countries and communities. In this paper, according to this assumption that Muslim countries will experience a certain pattern of demographic transition, the age transition will be discussed. In this paper, similarities and differentials of trends and patterns of fertility, mortality and especially age structure are studied in six Muslim countries.

Fertility transition has been a central theme of demographic research in the second half of twenty century. In spite of extensive research on the levels، trends، and determinants of fertility in different regions of the world، few studies undertake to examine the onset and the pace of fertility decline it''s variation and change among developing countries. This paper examines the interrelationships between the pace of change in the socio-economic development indicators and the rapidity of fertility transition in developing world. Time-series data on the socio-economic and demographic indicators taking out from the World Bank reports، has been used for the present analysis. Cross-country data for 90 developing countries analyzed here using Excel and SPSS software programs. Statistical analysis including bivariate and multivariate techniques employed to investigate relationships. A negative and relatively weak relationships found between the onset of fertility transition and the pace of fertility decline. In other word، the later date a country enter to the fertility transition، the slower will be it''s fertility decline. There are also a high correlation between the levels of economic development (not the pace of development) at the time of entry to the fertility transition stage and pace of annual fertility decline. Empirical analysis of data from the developing countries experience does not in support of prevailing hypothesized relations between fertility and development which argues that the association between fertility and development has been changing over time and the later time a country enter to the fertility transition، it experienced the more rapid fertility decline. In contrast، a negative and relatively weak relation appears between the onset of fertility transition and the pace of fertility decline after controlling for the effects of various socio-economic variables in multivariate models. This implies that those countries which were undergone their fertility transition later (and the most of them are sub-Saharan African countries)، have experience slower fertility decline. Another important result of the study provide empirical supports for the hypothesis that those countries which enter the fertility transition at the very low level of socio-economic development experienced a relatively slower pace of fertility transition. In contrast، the most rapid fertility decline has been occurred in those countries which enter their transition stage at the relatively high level of socio-economic development. When the pace of fertility decline is examined in connection with the pace of changes in the development indicators، a significant relationships could be find only for those socio-economic variables that reflect human capital. Our results show that there is a positive and significant association between the pace of fertility decline and the rate at which such indicators as child mortality، life expectancy at birth، and the proportion of illiterate population shift over time. On the contrary، there are not significant relationships between the rate of increase in urban population and the economic growth with the pace of fertility decline. This can be an important result especially for effective policymaking concerning the population growth in developing countries

In Iran, population policy and planning have debated more about the dynamic of population growth and much less attention to the age structure of the population, its changes and consequences. Iran’s Fertility has declined significantly in during the past two decades. Consequently, the age structure of population is under transition. Changing age structure is offering a window of opportunity that is referred to as the demographic window. In during time of demographic window, that is temporal time, the working-age population bulges and the age dependency ratios declines. Demographic window offers a unique and golden opportunity for economic development, but exploit this opportunity is needed appropriate policies. This paper focuses on age structure transitions, demographic window and its economic outcomes. The paper begins with briefly overview of the demographic transition, then the recent and projected changes in Iran’s population age structure will be reviewed. After that, the paper examines demographic window and its linkages with the economic growth. Finally, it discusses policy implications to realize and exploit demographic window.