جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "ایران" در نشریات گروه "جغرافیا"

Water is a strategic and scarce resource that has become increasingly limited in recent years due to a variety of national and transnational factors, significantly impacting security, stability, development, and prosperity in various countries. The profound influence of water on these domains has positioned it at the forefront of the foreign policy and hydropolitical relations of numerous nations, including those in South West Asia. In recent years, despite the prominence of the water crisis and its implications for the relations between Iran and Iraq within scholarly, political, and media discussions, the complexities of this issue remain poorly understood, leading to disparate interpretations. The current research, which is exploratory in nature, utilized library methods for data collection with the aim of achieving a qualitative understanding of the multifaceted hydropolitical relations between Iran and Iraq. This study not only seeks to identify the content and methodological characteristics of existing literature but also aims to uncover research gaps in this field employing a qualitative meta-analysis approach. Through this method, the research examined 34 studies published between 2014 and 2023, including domestic scientific articles, theses, and contributions to reputable international journals. The findings indicate that a comprehensive analysis of the various dimensions of hydropolitical relations between Iran and Iraq has yet to be undertaken. In this context, the absence of accurate and reliable data, alongside the inadequacy of theoretical and cognitive frameworks, represents significant deficiencies in the existing research on the bilateral relations of these two countries.

The contemporary global landscape is characterized by heightened geopolitical competition, in which energy resources have evolved from being mere support for nations to becoming pivotal elements in the contest for power. This context has transformed corridors into significant arenas for competition, as each country endeavors to establish its position within the intricate network created by these emerging corridors. In this regard, the prevailing global geopolitical trend has intensified the competition over maritime chokepoints and secured access to cross-border markets.This research serves as a theoretical foundation, employing a descriptive-analytical methodology that incorporates a comparative approach, utilizing library and internet resources for data collection. Within the chronopolitical framework of Iran-Iraq relations, each actor strives to delineate its role in international corridors while pursuing various objectives. For instance, Iraq is actively engaged in the "FAW Corridor" initiative, whereas Iran seeks to expand economic cooperation and secure a place in the burgeoning alliances of the East. While it is challenging to make definitive predictions regarding the future of relations between the two countries from a chronopolitical perspective, emerging signs suggest a trend toward diminished cooperation and increased competition, influenced by a multitude of variables. A key indicator of this potential competition is the rivalry over transit routes (corridors).

Defining effective mechanisms, this research seeks to design a model for establishing integrated regional governance in Iran, realizing "convergent interaction" with a flexible structure with macro and micro players, resource mobilization for redistribution, development, and improvement of resource allocation in an integrated manner. The main research question addressed in this research is: "What mechanisms can be formulated for the establishment of integrated regional governance in Iran? "This research was conducted using the grounded theory method. The statistical population included experts and managers of macro-level and micro-level ministries selected through the snowball sampling technique. Based on the theoretical summary and the results of the opinion of the expert panel, to design a model for the establishment of integrated regional governance in Iran, it is necessary to define mechanisms. First, the conditions that led to this were formulated with propositions such as decentralization in the planning system and political-administrative decentralization which directly affect the main category of "spatial management." The next layer involves the governing platform  with the definition of institutional-legal, economic, and environmental mechanisms. The next level is the intervening conditions by defining the mechanisms of reforming the educational system and reforming the culture. Finally, all these levels related to the actions and interactions by defining the mechanisms of reforming the management structure with an integration approach, can create structures to realize the model of the establishment of integrated governance in Iran. Therefore, integrated regional governance in Iran will be made by multi-level governance systems with complex configurations of connecting structures and mechanisms at different levels.

Spatial diversity and temporal variability of natural phenomena make their study time-consuming and difficult. On the other hand, there are mutual relationship between the phenomena and aspects and the position of their performance, that have spatial and temporal homogeneity. Based on these criteria, space (time) can be divided into independent units (Kavyani and Alijani, 2001: 344). therefore, classification is the systematic grouping of phenomena or events that have common characteristics or relationships within groups (Heydari, 1999: 8). Climatic phenomena are one of the important and most variety things in the nature of the world. There is no environmental-climatic phenomenon that is not caused by a specific pattern of air pressure distribution (Alijani, 2006: 201). Air pressure is an element that can be used to determine the characteristics of climatic elements, including temperature, precipitation, etc... Therefore, pressure systems are the main and independent factors that control characteristics of humidity, temperature and pressure with their temporal and spatial changes. Most of these pressure systems have a medium or synoptic scale (Boucher, 2006: 5). Therefore, in this study, sea level pressure was chosen as the climate index. Heavy rainfalls are one of the climate phenomena that can have many effects on the environment. This kind of rainfalls are most important natural reason of floods that cause irreparable damage to the natural environment and human societies. Therefore, the study of heavy rainfalls, especially in pervasive areas, is essential to understand the behavior of this type of rains. Identifying the behavior of this type of precipitation is an important step in water resources management. According to the amount of available data and for the ease of knowing the behavior of heavy rainfalls, we will need to use classification. Because despite the variety of patterns leading to heavy rainfall, there are similarities in these patterns.

In this research, heavy and pervasive rainfall in Iran has been studied by using the third version of Esfazari database. For this purpose, the values of the 90th, 95th and 99th percentiles of precipitation on rainy days were calculated for all cells of the map. This means that for each cell a specific threshold was obtained. Then, data above the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles were identified respectively as heavy, very heavy, and extremely heavy rain days. To determine the threshold for the definition of " pervasive rainfall " in this research, at first, anomaly of heavy rainfall area was calculated, and then the days with a positive anomaly was selected. Then the 75th percentile of the area of the selected days were obtained. The 75th percentile value obtained for the mentioned days is equal to 16% of the country's area and it was determined as the threshold of pervasive area. Result shows that 160 days with pervasive heavy rainfall (with precipitation equal or more than 90th percentile) occurred during the study period. Rainfall data of 160 days classified by using Binary cluster analysis. For this purpose, the Euclidean distance method and "Ward" linkage method were used. After identifying the number of heavy rainfall patterns, Indicator Days for each pattern identified by using correlation method (Lund) and the average area method. After identifying the Indicator days by both methods, by using sea level maps and the upper atmosphere levels and checking moisture convergence flux maps, Omega and statistical methods, the Indicator days obtained through both methods are compared.

As mentioned above, 160 days with pervasive heavy rainfall were identified and then classified by using binary cluster analysis method. Result show that the 160 studied days are placed in 10 groups (patterns). After determining the number of patterns, the indicator days for each pattern were identified by using correlation method and the average area method. Then, the indicator (obtained from both methods) days were compared by using sea level pressure maps and upper atmosphere levels and checking moisture convergence flux maps, Omega and statistical methods. Result show that average area method can choose indicator days better than correlation method. In the other hand indicator days chosen by correlation method most of the patterns are attributed to the Red sea low pressure and the role of other factors is small or ignored. For example, in this method, the role of the Indian Ocean in providing moisture for the heavy rains in the east and southeast of the country has been very small. But on the indicator days selected by the area average method, the pressure centers are arranged in such a way that a relative balance has been established in the role of factors that cause heavy rainfall.

The results of this research show that 160 days with heavy rainfall (with precipitation equal or more than 90th percentile) and in the area of more than 16% of the country (pervasive) occurred during the study period. The classification shows that 8 synoptic patterns cause heavy rainfalls. Also, Result show that average area method can choose indicator days better than correlation method.

It is essential to disclose or evaluate the impacts of global warming and climate change on temperature in order to account for the climate variations in each given area, such as Iran. This research aimed to assess the effectiveness of the MPI-ESM-LR model, a part of the CMIP5 model series, in evaluating the seasonal anomaly of Iran's temperature. It addressed the lack of comprehensive studies on modeling and forecasting the effects of global warming on temperature events in Iran. This study focused on different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to provide a comprehensive analysis. It examined two time periods, including the historical eras (1980–2005) and the future (2021–2100). The analysis was done based on the CORDEX-WAS dynamical downscaling approach at the station size. The present study aimed to provide solutions to the following two questions: Is the described model, which utilizes the CORDEX dynamical downscaling approach, capable of accurately forecasting seasonal temperature fluctuations in Iran with little error? Will there be a rise in air temperature conditions on a seasonal scale in the future?

Eight models, namely CanESM2, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, GFDL-ESM2M, ICHEC-EC-EARTH, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC-ESM, MPI-ESM-LR, and NorESM1-M, were examined to determine the optimum model for forecasting Iran's seasonal temperature. The verification findings of the preceding models indicate that the MPI-ESM-LR model exhibits the least bias, making it the most accurate model for forecasting Iran's seasonal temperature in future periods. To verify the accuracy of the air temperature data obtained from the MPI-ESM-LR model, a total of 49 synoptic stations were chosen across the country. This selection was made based on the historical data provided by the CORDEX project, covering the statistical period from 1980 to 2005. This study examined the effectiveness of the MPI-ESM-LR model, a collection of CMIP5 models, in assessing seasonal air temperature in Iran. It focused on three scenarios: RCP 2.6 (optimistic), RCP 4.5 (moderate), and RCP 8.5 (pessimistic). The research analyzed the seasonal temperature anomaly in Iran for three time periods: the near future (2021-2050), the middle future (2051-2075), and the distant future (2076-2100). The time frame spanning from 1980 to 2005 was designated as the historical period for comparing the data collected from synoptic stations with the simulations generated by CMIP5 models. The validity of observational and modeled data from 1980 to 2005 has been assessed using statistical measures such as the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Pearson correlation coefficient (r). The non-parametric sense approach was employed to calculate the slope of the data trend in the time series. The present study utilized CORDEX-WAS dataset with a spatial resolution of 0.44 arc degrees. The dynamical downscaling was performed using the RCA4 model for regional climate modeling (RCM) and the r1i1p1 ensemble.

The findings indicated that the MPI-ESM-LR model, when implemented with the CORDEX dynamical downscaling approach, demonstrates a high level of accuracy in forecasting seasonal temperature extremes in Iran. This is evident from its average correlation coefficient of 0.99, average RMSE index of 0.55° c, and MBE of -0.3° c. The majority of stations have mean square error values that are below 1 ° c. The greatest bias was found in Bandar Lengeh, with a deviation of 1.6° c, while the smallest bias was found in Sanandaj, with a deviation of 0.06° c. The average error deviation index reveals that Khorram Abad had the highest positive skewness, measuring 0.81° c, whereas Dushan Tappeh displayed the highest negative skewness, measuring -1.8°c. Throughout the year, the lowest rise in air temperature under the 2.6 RCP scenario in the distant future is 7.1°, 21.5°, 25.7°, and 10.8° c. The highest temperature increase in the pessimistic scenario is 8.5 RCP in the distant future. The expected temperatures for winter, spring, summer, and autumn are 10.5°, 25.7°, 30.3°, and 14.9° c, respectively. During the historical period, the mean air temperature in winter, spring, summer, and autumn was 6.3°, 20.3°, 24.8°, and 9.9° c, respectively. In RCP 2.6, the spring, summer, and autumn seasons exhibit a declining trend in temperature. Specifically, the temperature decreases by -0.037°, -0.075°, and -0.037 ° c every decade, respectively. However, in other times and scenarios, the model and station data from the historical period consistently demonstrate a rising temperature trend throughout all seasons. During the winter season, the highest deviation from the average temperature occurs in the Zagros, Sablan, and Sahand Mountains in the western and northwestern regions of the country. Conversely, the lowest deviation from the average temperature is observed in the low-altitude parts of the desert plain and the eastern slopes of Shirkouh. During the spring season, the northwest and Zagros mountains have the most deviation from the average maximum temperature, while the coastal parts of the Caspian and the eastern part of the country see the lowest deviation from the average minimum temperature. During the summer season, the northwest and western regions of the country have had the highest temperature anomalies in most times and scenarios. Conversely, the southeast regions of Jask and Chabahar have shown the lowest temperature anomalies. During the autumn season, the eastern half of the country, particularly the southeastern region and the Lut plain, experience the most deviation in temperature. The lowest temperature anomaly occurs mostly in the elevated regions of Talesh and Sabalan and sometimes on the western slopes of the Zagros Mountains.

Regarding the projected increase in air temperature in the upcoming decades and the concern of water stress, it is recommended to carefully strategize future water management, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas. This planning should take into account population growth as well as the development of industrial and agricultural sectors. Additionally, the impact of climate change on water demand and water resources must be taken into consideration.

The purpose of this research is to analyze the beginning, end and length of the snow season in Iran. For this purpose, daily data from the MODIS, spanning from 20/03/2000 to 19/03/2020, was obtained from the NASA website at a spatial resolution of 500 meters. First, temporal and spatial filters were applied to eliminate the impact of cloudiness on the data. Furthermore, the first day when a cell was reported to have snow cover (based on the elapsed days since the start of Mehr) was determined for every water year. This process was conducted separately for each water year, ultimately yielding a matrix of dimensions 20 × 7541502, where each row represented the first day that the MODIS detected snow on a given cell, and each column represented a spatial cell. Similarly, the same procedure was employed to calculate the end and length of snow season. The findings indicate that, in general, the beginning of snow season is shifting towards the winter season in the western parts of the country. Conversely, in the northwestern regions, including the northern slopes of Alborz and certain areas of the southern Zagros, the beginning of snow season is transitioning towards the autumn season. Moreover, in many highland areas in the west and northwest, as well as on the Alborz mountain range, the end of the snow season is progressively occurring towards late winter and spring.

The investigation and evaluation of development plans is a common scientific method through which one can understand the aims, approaches, and underlying concepts of these plans. Considering the significant role of such plans in the growth and development processes of countries, particularly in promoting the sustainability and prosperity of nomadic communities, this study aims to investigate the regulations and laws governing these plans concerning the empowerment of Iran's nomadic community from the period of the Islamic Revolution to the present. The method employed in this paper is based on documentary approaches that examine government policies in development plans related to the empowerment of nomadic communities. This investigation utilizes two planning approaches: technology-based rational planning and a communicative and participatory approach. The results indicate a lack of coordination between policy and implementation, a predominance of up-down and non-participatory approaches in the development plans, and the inefficiency of empowerment methods as the primary findings of this paper. The study recommends a reevaluation of government policies outlined in the nomadic development plans. This should involve the selection of more suitable social and economic policies, the adoption of effective empowerment methods, and the enforcement of existing laws within these plans.

Spatial inequalities in developing countries such as Iran are more visible due to various factors, so many Scientists (Dadashpour & Shojaei, 2022-Mosayebzadeh et al, 2021- Fotres & Fatemi Zardan, 2020- Dadashpour & Alvandipour, 2018- GhaderHajat & Hafeznia, 2018) consider the most important feature of Iran's space organization to be spatial injustice, which is the manifestation of the country's center-periphery structure at micro-local and macro-national scales. In Iran, inequality and lack of balance in the optimal distribution of facilities as a result of unprincipled past policies in industrial-service locations, growth poles, and the trend of centralization in dominant regional cities, the spatial imbalance between national, regional, district, and local levels is one of the important issues, which has emerged under the influence of mechanisms governing economic, social and political structures, this anomaly and imbalance have increased with the increase of the government's role in the economy due to the nature of its concentration and departmentalism, and more planning has been provided to the government (Faraji et al, 2019). Finally, today, the issue of inequality in many countries is mentioned as a fundamental challenge in the path of development, So it is considered one of the main obstacles in the process of national development and disruption of regional balance, Therefore, the first step in development planning is to identify the position of each region in terms of development and inequalities (Amanpour and Mohammadi, 2021); Therefore, the main goal of this research is the spatial analysis of regional inequalities in Iran during the years 2011, 2016, and 2021.

The current type of research is applied and its research method is descriptive-analytical. The collection of data in this research is in the form of a library. The statistical population of this research is 31 provinces of the country based on the last administrative and political divisions of 2021. To evaluate the state of development, 47 indicators have been used in 3 main economic-infrastructural, educational-cultural, and health-treatment dimensions. The analysis of research data has been carried out quantitatively using GIS, EXCEL, and SPSS software. In this research, to rank the provinces from the VIKOR multi-indicator decision-making model, To weight the indices using the Shannon entropy method, For data clustering using the K-Means-Cluster method, To evaluate the changes of inter-provincial inequalities using the CV statistical method, To interpolate the development of the country using the Kriging method, To evaluate the spatial correlation and the type of clustering of the development of the provinces using the Spatial Autocorrelation method (Moran's I) and Geographically weighted regression method has been used to find the relationship between development as a dependent variable and population and area as an independent variable.

The results of this research show that in 2011 due to the strong concentration of administrative, political, economic, and industrial activities in Tehran, there was a sharp divergence between Tehran province and other provinces. The growth pole theory has entered the second stage and the degree of divergence has decreased and the degree of convergence between provinces has increased. According to the results of Moran's correlation, the clustering of the country is still multipolar and there is still regional inequality in the country, so the country's border and port provinces are in a worse situation than other provinces, despite their development potentials and capacities as border corridors. The geographic weighted regression model also shows that the influence of independent variables (area and population) is greater in the northwest of the country than in the southeast of the country, This issue is estimated at 76% in 2011, 35% in 2016 and 43% in 2021.

In general, the most important cause of Iran's regional inequality should be sought in the structure of the planning system and the pattern of regional spatial development of Iran. The formation of the planning system in Iran is based on neoclassical economic theories, the growth pole and the intense concentration of activities in the center of Iran, and this issue is very influential in creating regional inequalities, and on the one hand, due to top-down planning and lack of attention to environmental potential in the country's provinces, Actually, spatial injustice is spreading in the country and this issue can act as a dangerous factor in the direction of sustainable development of the country.

 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported that climate change results in anomalies, fluctuations or trends in climatic elements, such as precipitation and temperature. In this study, we aim to investigate the decadal changes in the probability of different durations of precipitation in Iran over the past four decades (1977-2016). To achieve this goal, we used the third version of the Asfazari database. We defined a rainy day as a day when the precipitation is more than the average precipitation in a given place. The Markov chain method was employed to estimate the probability of precipitation duration from 1971 through 2016.

We adopted the daily data of 2188 stations under the supervision of Iran’s Meteorological Organization for the period 1971 through 2016. Accordingly, we estimated the probability of precipitation duration for 1-7 days for the entire period. We investigated the decadal changes in the probability of precipitation duration for the four study decades and compared them to the whole period under investigation. To understand the spatial features of these changes, we estimated the relationship between changes in the probability of precipitation duration for 1-7 days and spatial factors using multivariate regression models.

Our findings revealed that as the duration of rainy days increased, the area affected by precipitation decreased. Therefore, the spatial distribution of the probability of precipitation duration for more than 7 days indicated the smallest area that received precipitation. The probability duration of precipitation lasting 4 days or more throughout Iran was very small, which can be attributed to the effects of local features on precipitation formation. The probability of 1-day precipitation for most regions of Iran was higher than other durations; however, there was only a probability of 1-day precipitation in half of Iran. The highest probability of precipitation duration occurred in the Caspian region, the only region that experienced all durations of precipitation, indicating the presence of various precipitation mechanisms in this area. The greatest probability of decadal changes was observed in the 1-7 day duration in the northern part of Iran, including the northwest to the east of the Caspian Sea and in the south of Alborz Mountain range. Additionally, the most changes in the probability durations of 1-7 days of precipitation in the south have been seen in Sistan and Baluchistan. The lowest probability of decadal changes was shown in large areas of the regions from the east, southeast, and southwest. Therefore, the changes in precipitation durations in the southern half of the regions were generally low; however, in the northern half, the changes were relatively significant.In general, during the four study decades, the relationship between changes in the probability of 1-7 day precipitation durations and spatial factors, particularly latitude, was positive. Thus, decreasing latitudes resulted in an increasing probability of 1-7 day precipitation.

The most likely changes in precipitation duration were related to the western and eastern coast of the Caspian Sea and the northwestern region of Iran, as well as southern Alborz, where the probability of changes decreased. The least amount of possible changes was related to the south of Iran, where only two provinces, Sistan and Baluchistan, and Hormozgan, experienced the greatest change in the probability of one to seven days of precipitation. Thus, the possible changes in the spatial continuation of precipitation in the southern half of the country were primarily low. However, in the northern half, the possible changes in the duration of precipitation were more significant. changes in the duration of precipitation, along with changes in the intensity and frequency of precipitation, can have significant consequences in extreme events such as droughts and floods. Accurately depicting changes in precipitation duration can be helpful in addressing problems concerning precipitation.

Urban landscape as one of the most important urban issues should always preserve its visual and aesthetic aspect. One of the most important issues that attracted the attention of urban designers is the objective of the city's objective aspect and visual disturbance. On the other hand, the geography of cities is full of high monuments and principles and criteria that have to be considered in urban planning. Therefore, the present study examines the aesthetics of aesthetics in terms of urban landscape and its impact on high - rise buildings. meanwhile, the call for highrise building measures from theorists, architecture experts and as well as residents and have been applied in order to analyze the data and data, qualitative and quantitative methods for analyzing data and data analysis, using spss statistical analysis to analyze qualitative data. The findings of this study show that in urban planning and urban planning in the geographical area of cities, it has to be applied to the design and construction of the high - rise buildings so as to help the media and the desired urban landscape. In this regard, it is recommended that the principles and rules of building a high - rise building are recommended by urban management and the ministry of planning and urbanization tailored to the features of each city. Finally, the priorities of aesthetics of urban landscape in urban geography have been mentioned.

The relations between China and Iran as two ancient and influential civilizations in the region are very old and important. After the Mongol attacks and the formation of the Mongol Empire, Iran and China became a part of their territory and with the establishment of the Mongol Ilkhani dynasties in Iran, and Yuan in China, extensive political, commercial and cultural relations between them began, among which the cultural relations of the government are much wider and more impressive. The expansion of cultural relations between Iran and China under the shadow of the support and open policies of the rulers, rulers and encouragement of the ministers on the one hand, the movement of people, the migration of industrialists, artists and the presence of Muslims in the territory of the Mongols on the other hand, had an impact in the Ilkhanid era. had These effects are very important in the decorative arts and its developments. This article is based on the historical research method which is based on two descriptive and analytical characteristics and by relying on library sources and also by posing this question; How did the cultural relations between Iran and China take shape during the Ilkhanate era? What changes were made in the role of the decorative arts of the Ilkhanate era? To examine the evolution of the decorative arts of the Ilkhanate era with the influence of the cultural relations between Iran and China in the form of artistic roles and styles.

In order to achieve the goal and correctly formulate the current and future conditions of Southwest Asia, written university texts including books, articles, internet, etc. will be used. The findings of recent studies show the gradual decline of the economic position of the United States and the European Union and the emergence of new economic powers in the world, especially China and Russia, in the 21st century. Because the supply of its transmission energy guarantees the position of the hegemon on the world stage. Controlling the energy resources of the Greater Near East is considered one of the basic strategies of the United States to ensure the flow of energy to the West, curbing China as the most important energy consumer in the world, and curbing Russia with its presence in Central Asia and the Caucasus. In such a situation, the adoption of active and intelligent diplomacy in the field of energy by Iran will be very decisive and have numerous geopolitical and geo-economic effects at the regional and global levels. Therefore, national interests require that by maintaining the principles of honor, wisdom and expediency, Iran plays an effective and active role in the field of regional and global cooperation in terms of increasing production and trade.

Energy, as one of the most important factors of production and also as one of the most essential final products, has significant economic effects. Iran, with its huge energy potential, is the second largest producer of energy in the world, while Iran has faced many economic problems, especially in recent decades. Ilam province, which has the highest fossil energy reserves in the country, is always considered as a deprived province with no human development. In this regard, one of the ways out of Ilam province from economic crises and lack of development is the management and use of fossil fuels in the cities of the province. In this regard, the present study uses descriptive-analytical and applied methods to analyze the effectiveness of using fossil energy in the development of cities in Ilam province using the topsis model, to evaluate the effects of using fossil energy in the development of cities in Ilam province. The results showed that in this field Malekshahi city with 16.17%, Dehloran city with 12.74%, Sirvan city with 11.03% and Ilam and Ivan cities with 10.80% each are among the cities and the results of SWOT table showed that the strategy The position of fossil energy in the development of Ilam cities is in a slightly competitive situation.

It is predicted that the impact of climate change on agriculture will be more severe in the coming years due to changes in the intensity, magnitude and distribution of rainfall, soil water content, atmospheric water vapor, higher temperatures and, as a result, more evaporation and transpiration. This will have significant implications for irrigation needs, especially in semi-arid regions, known as hotbeds of climate change. Grape production requires a large amount of water, which can be problematic in semi-arid Mediterranean regions, where climate change projections predict a decrease in water availability associated with decreased rainfall and increased temperature (Pizaro et al., 2022: 1).

In the basic period, the status of effective climatic parameters was first investigated. Then, the time of occurrence of the phenological stages of the grapevine at the regional level was determined based on the data of the observation period. For future period data, the downscalled data of MarksimGCM database was used. The ordinal kriging method was used for spatial distributions. RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios were used as pessimistic scenario and moderate scenario. In order to identify the phenological stages of grapevines, studies and field visits were conducted on grapevines. To control the phenological stages of grapes, the BBCH scale was used at Golmkan Agricultural Meteorological Station located in Khorasan Razavi Province in Northeast Iran during a complete growth period from the beginning of germination to the end of the stagnation period. In fact, the codes of phenological stages were observed and recorded in the field. In addition to field observations, climate data from the Golmakan agricultural meteorological station was also used. Golmkan agroclimate station is located near Golmkan village and on the side of Mashhad-Chenaran road with an altitude of 1176 meters above sea level. This station mainly measures the effect of weather parameters on wheat and grape crops.

The results showed that the grape tree in the initial stage of growth has a lower water requirement than other stages of growth. In the initial stage, the amount of water required varies from 207 mm in high and cool areas to 303 mm in low altitude and hotter areas. The results showed that in the coming decades, the amount of water needed will gradually increase compared to the base period. Based on the RCP8.5 scenario, in the period (2020-2055) and (2056-2090), the water demand will increase by 2.6 and 12 mm, respectively, compared to the base period. The amount of increase in water requirement in low altitude areas will be higher than in high and cool and cold areas. According to the RCP4.5 scenario, the amount of water needed in the period (2020-2055) and (2056-2090) will increase by 4 and 8 mm, respectively, compared to the base period. The amount of changes in water demand will be less than in the pessimistic scenario. The results of the spatial distribution of water requirement in the middle stage of grape growth in the base period showed that altitude conditions play a major role in the spatial distribution of water requirement in the middle stage of growth. The lowest amount of water requirement is observed in high areas. In the basic period, the amount of water needed in grape growing areas varies from 586 mm to 859 mm. The middle stage of grape growth, because it corresponds to the hot months of the year, has the highest amount of water needed in the growing season of grapes.The results of the changes in the water requirement of the middle stage of grape growth in the coming decades compared to the base period under the RCP8.5 scenario show that in the period (2020-2055) and (2056-2090), on the water requirement of the middle stage of growth Grapes will increase 25 and 50 mm respectively, in its cultivation areas in Iran. In the far future period, the amount of water needed is higher than in the middle future. The highest amount of water requirement will be observed in low altitude stationsThe results showed that in the period (2020-2055), the water requirement will change from 611 mm in high and cool areas to 884 mm in low and hotter areas. In the period (2056-2090), the water requirement will increase from 636 mm to 909 mm according to the altitude conditions.The results of changes in the water requirement of the middle stage of growth based on the RCP4.5 scenario for future periods showed that in the period (2020-2055) and (2056-2090) the amount of water requirement will be increased by 10 and 20 mm, respectively. The increase in water demand in this scenario will be less than the pessimistic scenario. The highest amount of water requirement will occur in low altitude areas.The results showed that in the period (2020-2055), the water requirement will increase and change from 596 mm in high and cool areas and up to 869 mm in low altitude areas. In the period (2056-2090), the amount of water required for the middle stage of growth will change increase from 606 to 879 mm according to the altitude conditions. The results of the spatial distribution of the water requirement of the final stage of grape showed that in the basic period, the amount of water requirement varies from 358 to 410 mm from high to low altitude areas. This stage has less water requirement than the middle stage of growth. The lowest water requirement is observed in the high and cool areas of the northeast, north and northwest, and the high Zagros region. The areas of the plains and the marginal slopes of the mountainous areas have a higher water requirement.

The results show that in the RCP8.5 pattern, in the coming decades (2020-2055) and (2056-2090), 31 and 98 mm will be added to the reference evapotranspiration rate, respectively. The results of simulated data processing showed that under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios in the future periods, the amount of water requirement will increase compared to the base period for the growing stages of grapes in the growing areas of Iran. So that in the initial stage of growth under the mentioned scenarios in the periods (2020-2055) and (2056-2090) the amount of water requirement will increase by 6.2, 12, 4 and 8 mm, respectively. The water requirement of the middle stage of growth in the future period will increase compared to the base period. Considering the timing of this stage of grape growth with the warm days of the year, the amount of water requirement is higher than other stages of grape growth. The lowest and the highest amount of water requirement will occur in the low and high altitude areas, respectively. The highest amount of water requirement in the stages of grape growth in the coming decades will occur in the low altitude areas on the edge of the high areas in the grape growing areas. The lowest water requirement in the future will occur in the high and cold regions of the northwest, the high Zagros and the Alborz regions and the high regions in the east and southeast.

Afghanistan has many commonalities with Iran in various fields. But despite these commonalities, there are various challenges and obstacles in the path of convergence of these two countries. In the early years of the Pahlavi regime, the governments of Iran and Afghanistan postponed their fundamental differences to another time due to their efforts to stabilize their position, and for this purpose they signed the Saad Abad Treaty (Non-Aggression Pact). But the relations between the two countries did not last because Türkiye was too close to Iran. During the second Pahlavi period in the economic field, the relations between the two countries grew significantly, but the relations between the two countries faced a new challenge with the dispute over the rights of Abe Hirmand. After the victory of the Islamic revolution in Iran, there were ups and downs in the relations between the two countries. In the early years of the revolution and also during the period of the emergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the relations between the two countries were cut off. After the formation of the elected government in Afghanistan, the Islamic Republic of Iran, while supporting the government of this country, played an important role in the reconstruction of Afghanistan. However, despite the deep social relations between the two countries, efficient economic diplomacy has not dominated the relations between the two countries in any of the periods after and before the revolution. It seems that the lack of unity of opinion and coordination of the country's officials

Ukraine is Russia's strategic depth in Eastern Europe. The Ukraine crisis is the result of Russia's attitude towards Ukraine. The war between Russia and Ukraine is a war between powerful members of the international system and a power conflict between Russia, the United States, the European Union, NATO, and it has shown a new polarization in the international system. As a regional power and a strategic ally of Russia, Iran has been affected by the war between the West and Russia. This article, with the aim of clarifying the hidden and enigmatic dimension of the effect of this crisis, seeks to answer the question that; What are the consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on the international system in the horizon of 2030? Also, what consequences does it have on the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran? The current research was carried out using descriptive and analytical method and using documentary and library sources. The research findings show that; The war between Russia and Ukraine has affected the political, economic, and military aspects of the international system. It has also affected Iran's political and economic interests as Russia's ally in the region and has caused a change in Iran's foreign policy and a shift towards the East, a halt in nuclear negotiations, and the formation of economic cooperation between Russia and Iran. It has also caused Iran to worry about NATO's presence in the Caucasus, affecting Israel-Russia relations and Iran's interests in Syria, as well as energy security.

 Today, tourist destinations need to make tourists more loyal to these destinations in order to market their attractions, services, and products better. In addition to creating a competitive advantage, marketing costs for loyal tourists are much lower than marketing to attract new tourists. The current research was conducted to analyze the behavior of loyalty to the destination and the factors affecting it using the Bayesian network, which is a graph-type network based on the Bayesian theory.

 The current research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of method. The target population of the research was foreign tourists who traveled to Iran in the fall of 2022. A total of 384 questionnaires were distributed, out of which 376 correct questionnaires were collected and analyzed.

 The results of the analysis using the Bayesian method have shown that tourist satisfaction is 19%, the feeling of security from traveling to the destination is 11%, the mental image of the destination is 8%, the perceived quality is 7%, the perceived value, the sense of belonging to the destination is 6% each, and familiarity with the tourist destination is 7%. These factors contribute to the improvement of loyalty to the destination.

 By creating different scenarios, the tourism industry stakeholders can analyze loyalty behavior and the factors affecting it and use the results to create more loyalty and marketing based on making tourists loyal.Innovation: Although many studies have been done in tourism to identify the factors affecting loyalty to the tourist destination, not many studies have been conducted in the field of predicting the level of loyalty of tourists to the destination, as well as the predictive analysis of the most and the least influencing factors on Loyalty has not been done.

Administrative divisions refer to the territorial organization of the country space in a hierarchical manner, which is formed by dividing the land into smaller units along with layers of local government. Since the present situation of administrative divisions in Iran is facing challenges that pose obstacles to the realization of sustainable development and security, and considering the emphasis of the second, fourth, and fifth development plans on reforming the administrative division system, it is necessary to properly identify the weaknesses of this law and make necessary efforts to fix them and turn them into opportunities. To this aim, it can be helpful to review the laws of other countries regarding territorial organization. The present article provides a comparative study of the administrative divisions’ laws of Iran and Indonesia and seeks an answer to the following question: according to the laws of the two countries, based on which indicators and through which processes are the political units established, and how are the responsibilities and authorities distributed among the levels of local government?

The present study is an applied research. A descriptive-analytic method and a qualitative approach were used to compare the administrative divisions’ laws of the two countries. The research data are composed of the legal documents of two countries regarding the system of administrative divisions. The data is collected through library method.

In the Iranian division system, the quantitative indicator of "population" is dominant in developing and promoting the levels of administrative divisions. Other indicators mentioned in the law (position, homogeneity, sphere of influence, etc.) have not been defined, and no standard criterion has been presented for their measurement. In the Indonesian legal system, two categories of basic and administrative requirements (indicators) have been specified for the establishment of preliminary regions which, after passing the preliminary period, change to a new political region according to the approval of the law. The basic requirements (territorial and regional capacity) are the indicators that a geographical area must possess to promote the level in the division system. The important point is that these indicators have been defined, and their measurement criteria have been specified. Placing these indicators together, a diverse and multi-dimensional set of features is created that a geographical region must possess to be promoted in the division system. The outcome of these features is that a new administrative unit is developed when it has the necessary capabilities for self-reliance. Administrative requirements are, in fact, the prerequisite for starting the process of considering the creation of a political unit in the Indonesian government and parliaments. It shows that one of the indicators required for establishing newadministrative units is a serious request on the part of the people, which is approved by the local parliament, the mayor/regent, the provincial parliament, and the governor.The law of Iran has deferred any abstraction, annexation, conversion, creation, and integration, as well as determining and changing the center and the name of the units of administrative divisions, except for the province, to the proposal of the Ministry of Interior and the approval of the Cabinet of Ministers. The process of establishing political units in Iran is a top-down process. The law does not specify anything about the different stages of this process. In Indonesia, however, provinces and cities/regencies are established by passing laws. Also, any changes in the borders of the regions are regulated by law. Nevertheless, the change in the name of the region, the naming and renaming of a part of the land, the transfer of the capital, and the renaming of the capital are determined by government regulations. The characteristic feature of the Indonesian legal system in this regard is that prior to passing any law about establishing a political unit, a preliminary area must first be created for a trial period (three years) according to government regulation. During this preliminary period, the prerequisites for establishing a new province and regency/city should be provided (e.g., infrastructures, human resources, etc.). During this three-year preliminary period, the government evaluates the status of the preliminary region, and if approved, the new political unit is established according to the law by presenting a bill to the parliament. The law describes the process of creating a new preliminary region at the level of the province, the central government, and the parliaments step by step until the law is approved for establishing a new province or regency/municipality.Iranian Law of Administrative Divisions adopts a place-oriented approach to political divisions. In other words, the law focuses on the way the land is divided without providing a description of how to manage the division levels. The mentioned law lacks provisions regarding the separation of national affairs from local ones, the responsibilities and authorities of divisional levels, coordination and communication with the central government, etc. In contrast, the Indonesian law of regional government has a space-oriented approach. In this law, regions are viewed as a geographical space with all its contents and relationships. The discussion of establishing new administrative units constitutes only one chapter of the law, and the rest of the law is a detailed description of how national affairs are separated from regional and local ones, the responsibilities and authorities of the central and regional levels, and other issues related to the management of political units, including regional finance, structure and organization, and performance monitoring.

The Indonesian law of regional government has some features that have negative consequences for this country; for instance, the bottom-up process of establishing political units has led to the uncontrolled proliferation of political units, resulting in spatial fragmentation, which has negative developmental consequences, and its pure imitation is not recommended. However, reviewing this law reveals that in order to reform the administrative divisions system of Iran through the approaches taken by laws of the fourth (Article (73)), fifth (Article (186)), and seventh (Article (105)) five-year development plans of the Islamic Republic of Iran, it is necessary to amend the Iranian Law of Administrative Divisions so that first, the levels of administrative divisions, including the position of the city in the division system, indicators for establishing political units, and the process of creating political units are revised. Second, it should clearly divide the responsibilities and authorities between the central government and the local government levels, including municipalities. As a result, such a law must necessarily include how to choose/ appoint heads and managers of local governments, responsibilities and authorities of all levels of government, structure, and organization of local governments, how to finance the tasks delegated to local governments, how the central government supervises local governments, etc. Definitely, drafting a comprehensive bill on administrative divisions through such an approach, representing decentralized governance from an administrative and financial point of view, requires revising and merging the laws on definitions and regulations of administrative divisions, the municipal law, the law of city and village Islamic councils, and other relevant laws as of a comprehensive law. Such a law will provide a comprehensive and transparent picture of regional and local governance and, in fact, the way the provinces and their subordinate levels are governed.

Cities are complex and highly interdependent systems that are vulnerable to various risks. Considering the growth of cities and their expansion, the approach of urban resilience is one of the most vital solutions to resolve this vulnerability. This study has been done to investigate urban resilience studies against climate change in Iran using the meta-analysis method. The research method is descriptive-analytical, and its nature is applied-developmental.The statistical population of the research consists of authoritative and approved quarterly journals of the Ministry of Science, internal conferences, and theses from universities. The findings show that since 2013, there has been an increased focus on the issue of urban resilience against climate change, with researchers and geographers paying extra special attention to this topic. The studies reveal that the ecological and environmental dimensions And the identification and discussion of resilience dimensions and indicators are evident in most studies.Case studies in the research have generally focused on large cities in Iran. Due to the impacts of climate change, cities need to be resilient against these challenges, and this research highlights the importance of investigating this issue. The results indicate that cities have visible weaknesses in terms of resilience, particularly in the social and physical dimensions. These weaknesses are more pronounced in larger cities experiencing population growth.This research also shows that many gaps have been identified in this field, and researchers should pay attention to these in their future studies.

Climate change is one of the major challenges of this century. To eliminate these challenges on an international scale, serious and effective changes should be made in the current governance approach related to climate change. The aim of the current research is to investigate the state of threats and environmental challenges caused by the governance of climate change in transnational and international scales. The research method in this study is based on qualitative analysis with reference to influential quantities in the international field and based on several basic steps. At first, a general analysis of the provisions of climate change conventions was done to establish a strong link between international and domestic law. In the next step, an approach to overcome the previous challenges was presented and finally, the role of international laws and dispute resolution mechanisms in the governance of climate change was examined. Using SPSS software and PCA method and scree diagram drawing, for identified 4 important and effective factors in climate governance. The findings of this research showed that the absence or weakness of proper and single mechanisms that can resolve the differences between the member countries in the field of governance has the highest percentage (34%) in explaining the variance of the factors. National laws and regulations also have the lowest variance explanation percentage (16%) among the factors.