جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "تحلیل اثرات متقابل" در نشریات گروه "جغرافیا"

South Khorasan Province has gone through rapid industrialization and urbanization processes in the last decades and is under increasing pressure from various environmental challenges such as water scarcity and intensification of pollution and ecosystem degradation. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop scenarios for the future state of the environment of South Khorasan province using LIPSOR, the French school of scenario building, and by the application of simple interaction matrix models and morphological analysis to systematically help the environmental management orientations. For this purpose, key variables were first introduced as the main drivers or actors shaping the future. SMIC PROB-EXPERT software package was used to explain the initial scenarios of the future environmental situation of the province. Then a set of scenarios including the most probable scenarios were identified using MORPHOL software. Also, due to a large number of scenarios, the framework of general scenarios was used to describe different axes and conditions. The results of the study of the five main drivers in the SMIC model led to the extraction of 10 initial scenarios. Then, morphological analysis with the MORPHOL model with three political, institutional-executive, and cultural domains produced 3125 possible and probable scenarios, each of which shows the probability of D5/D6/D1/D33/D29 propulsion, respectively. Finally, the analysis of 50 possible scenarios showed that scenario 11111 is the most probable scenario (276.41%), and scenarios 11112, 11113, and 21111 are with probabilities of 184.28, 122.85, and 115.17, respectively, which are five of its constituent variables mainly indicating the probability of occurrence of low (1) to moderate (2 and 3) in the scenarios. In general, the future environmental situation of South Khorasan province is in the situation of the third quarter called lack of discretion in the environment. To change the future and move towards a better future, paying attention to each of the influential variables will be the way forward and can be directed towards a quarter of the framework with at least one flourishing axis.

The rapid changes of the second half of the twentieth century and the inefficiency of conventional planning methods led to the emergence and expansion of futurism, which in turn was used in the approach and methods used to identify and solve the problem. Regional foresight operates in a sub-national geographical area to make certain decisions to achieve the desired future, focusing on a specific territorial area. Accordingly, implementing this approach in the framework of the concept of regional development can significantly help update the country's development literature. The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors affecting regional development in Ghaen.

The present research is based on an exploratory-applied research method. The research process is such that the present research has collected the required data and information libraries in two ways. Articles, theses, dissertations, books, plans, and reports related to the topic have been collected and studied to review and identify the basics, concepts, and variables related to the topic. Also, using MICMAC method, key factors and drivers affecting the promotion of Ghaen city in regional development have been analyzed.

Based on the Delphi method, 37 variables were identified as factors affecting the regional development of Ghaen city and then analyzed using the interaction or structural effects analysis method by MICMAC software to extract the main factors affecting the future state of the environment. Based on the number of variables, the dimensions of the matrix are 37 x 37. By placing these factors in a matrix, the effect of each of these factors on each other was determined by weighting the factors (from zero to 3). All the factors involved in regional development are considered a system with intertwined elements and as a structure, and the relationships of these factors are measured to extract the most influential factors. The number of repetitions of the interaction of variables is considered twice, and the degree of matrix filling is 97.15% and shows the dispersion of variables affecting the future of Ghaen city. Out of 1330 relations that can be evaluated in this matrix, 39 were zero, 502 were number one, 744 were number two, and 84 were number three. Also, the matrix based on statistical indicators with two times of data rotation has 97% usefulness and optimization, indicating the questionnaire's high validity and answers. In the following, for a general analysis of the system environment and finally identifying the key effective factors. After identifying the variables, the first step is to form a matrix of pairwise comparisons extracted from Delphi meetings of managers (30 people in total) in which the impact of each variable on other variables is measured. Because the method of distribution and distribution of variables affecting the regional development of Ghaen city in the dispersion plane indicates the system's instability, three categories of variables (two-dimensional variables, regulatory variables, and independent variables) can be identified. Bidirectional variables: Bidirectional variables have a high impact and high affectivity, and any action on these variables will cause a reaction and change on other variables. The location of these variables in the impact plan is in the northeast. Bidirectional variables have a very high capacity to become key variables of the system. The following variables are known as two-dimensional variables according to their position in the impact-impact plan: employment structure, production technology, investment security, social participation, method and capacity of agricultural production, skilled manpower, the concentration of activities, Social development relations of the region, production of science, development of universities, GDP, relative economic growth, the pattern of interaction and cooperation with Afghanistan, the geopolitical position of the province, improvement of information technology infrastructure, coordination of organizations, ‌ production, and industrial prosperity, international Yazdan Bazaar, increasing investment in the province and the government's macro policies. Regulatory variables: Regulatory variables are located around the center of gravity of the chart or plan of influence - influence. These variables can be upgraded to effective variables or two-way variables. The following variables are known according to their location in the impact plan - the effectiveness of regulatory variables: improving the health network, social injustice in the distribution of municipal services, polluting industries, water resources, the transnational role of the province, improving the main road network, reducing ownership Government, the extent of devolution to the provincial and local levels, energy resources, the development of social networks, the construction of the provincial rail network and drought and natural hazards. Independent variables: Independent variables are located in the southwestern part of the impact-effectiveness plan. The following variables are called independent variables according to their location in the impact-impact plan: ethnicity, biodiversity, urban green space, entry and exit points of the city, hoarding, and stock exchange.

The results showed that the factors affecting regional development include relative growth, GDP, prosperity, investment, and policies, respectively, and indicate the influence of Ghaen regional development that has directly and indirectly affected. Therefore, by considering these key factors, regional development can be achieved in the city of Ghaen.

Planning as a regulatory process between public and private goals, as a result of the actions of individuals and groups deviates from its regulatory path and acts in a specific direction. This competition, influenced by power, has its own manifestation in the urban environment. The urban revolution and the consideration of the city as a spatial object, according to Lefebvre, put this socio-economic entity on a path that was increasingly attacked by capitalism, and the reproduction of artificial spaces for the accumulation of capital intensified. This reproduction is done in a set of rules and regulations and management policies that should, in fact, allocate space for public use, While the objective function of this city management organization has collapsed in favor of capital. This point has its own conditions in cities with rentier system. This is because in rentier systems, decentralization policies and, consequently, the strengthening of local institutions and urban management, in the absence of democratic conditions, have created a suitable environment for creating various types of rents and sometimes corruption. When urban space is considered as a commodity for possession, in this process urban management has its own impact. Sometimes as a law enforcement officer and sometimes as a competitor with private capital over urban space. All of this can be described as rent-seeking, in which individuals and groups try to divert resources to their advantage. All of these influences and everything that happens in the urban space are based on factors and contexts that seem to be rooted in the rentier political economy that governs the city system. Therefore, the present study tries to identify and explain the effective factors and contexts.

The present study can be considered as applied in terms of purpose, although it has also been developed and theoretically explained. Also, the approach is descriptive-analytical, which based on the data obtained from documentary studies, as well as conducting interviews and using a questionnaire, has analyzed the context of rent in Tabriz Municipality. For conducting interviews, open-ended questions have been designed and presented to a number of managers and experts in the field of urban management in the metropolis of Tabriz. The results, after theoretical saturation and combination with the results of documentary studies, are extracted in the form of propositions and form the basis of a questionnaire that is left to the judgment of elites and experts to determine the importance and degree of effectiveness of each criterion in the occurrence of rent and rent-seeking phenomenon. For this purpose, the Mick Mac questionnaire was used. This method is based on the analysis of interaction / structural effects.

The requirement for analyzing variables using Mick Mac software is to determine their interactions in the form of an effect matrix that acts as software input. To do this, a 39 * 39 matrix was set and the relationships between the variables in terms of effectiveness were determined based on the opinions of selected experts in a purposeful sampling way. The number of repetitions considered in the software is twice and the degree of filling is 68.63%. This indicates that they have affected each other in more than 68% of cases. Out of 1269 relationships that can be evaluated in the matrix, 580 cases were unrelated (number zero), 379 cases were weak relationship (number one), 585 cases were moderate relationship (number two) and 305 cases were strong relationship (number three). The pattern of distribution of research variables indicates that the system is unstable. The distribution model shows that macroeconomic factors of political economy generally have high impact and low impressible, and in contrast, the factors that are most impressible are the result of decisions and macro-political and economic environment. Such a situation indicates the power of external and extra-organizational factors to determine the status of the system. impressible factors or results are also factors that are affected by the macro-political environment and political economy and operate mostly at the organizational and local level, in other words, they are the output of the performance of macro-decisions and events. In the structural / interaction analysis matrix, the sum of the row numbers for each variable indicates the effect of the variable and the sum of the columns of each variable indicates its Impressive. According to the matrix results, the variables related to the "political economy factor" have the most impact on the system (the occurrence of the rent phenomenon) and the variables related to the "psychological factor" have the least impact. Also in terms of impressiveness, the variables related to "organizational factor" have the most impressiveness and the variables related to "legal factor" have the least. Based on the results of direct and indirect effects, the variable of power centers has the highest score. Also, all the identified key variables from rank one to 16 are repeated in direct and indirect impact, and the differences are only in their rank.

The present study seeks to identify and explain the factors affecting the formation of the phenomenon of rent and rent-seeking in the urban management organization. For this purpose, while conducting interviews with experts and managers related to urban management, first, 39 variables under 7 factors of political, political, economic, legal, organizational, socio-cultural and psychological economics were extracted. In the next step, using a questionnaire, the effectiveness of these variables was determined using the interaction / structural impact analysis method. In the next step, Mick Mac software was used to identify how the variables affect each other and identify key factors. The results of the software output can be summarized as follows; - Based on the pattern of distribution of variables, the system has an unstable state and the types of variables - influential, impressive, independent, regulatory and two-dimensional - can be identified in it. - The most effective is related to the variables of "political economy" and the least effective is related to the variables of "psychological". - In terms of impressiveness, the most impressiveness is related to "organizational" factor variables and the lowest impressiveness is related to "legal" factor variables. The key variables resulting from direct and indirect effects are identified as 16 variables, all of which are fixed and the differences are only related to their rank. These variables include; Centers of power, oil economy, lack of transparency, Clientelism policy, centralism, establishment of rentier state, weakness of popular institutions, government tenure, political influence, electoral assistance, desirability of rent-seeking among social groups, golden signatures, lobbying, the prevailing spirit of rent-seeking, the rule of the technocratic tradition among managers and the legal cases underlying rent. - Variables related to political economy are generally variables that have macro dimensions and in most cases are beyond the control of the local level of urban management. Local level variables are generally related to organizational factors that are generally the result of the performance of macro factors such as political economy. On the other hand, the variables related to political economy can be described as contextual variables that use their micro-organizational variables as tools to make their impact operational.

Border cities because of their specific location and margins they are exposed to all kinds of stress and current and future dependent shocks economic, social, environmental, security and political challenges. One of the most important strategies in the world to respond to these challenges is the strategy of increasing the resilience of societies. Resilience approach by improving the level of adaptation and thus reducing the level of vulnerability in border cities reduces threats from natural hazards and human crises and improving sustainable management of these areas. In this study, the Effective drivers on the resilience of Abadan border city have been identified and analyzed. To identify the effective drivers in this research, first review the existing studies based on the literature (Books, Articles, Documents, Plans) a list of effective drivers in urban resilience was extracted. In the second step, in order to understand the external forces (key drivers) using interviews and open questionnaires (Delphi technique) Academic experts and city managers were asked to introduce Key drivers of resilience in the border cities of Abadan In five studies including sections of (Economic, Social, Environmental, Institutional - Organizational and Physical - Infrastructure). After obtaining key resilience drivers, the Cross Impact Analysis (Structural) Method and Mic Mac software it was used to investigate the level and how effectiveness of drivers and Identification of Effective drivers on the Resilience of Abadan City.

The rapid growth of the tourism industry due to the accelerated growth of revenue in this field in recent decades, and the constant change and uncertainty of high impact events in this sector, on the other hand, the necessity of using new methods of future research and Long and long-term planning has made it more visible. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to formulate future tourism scenarios and test the viability of sustainable social tourism strategies.

In the present study, a combination of Delphi methods, PEST environmental scanning and interaction effects was used. Key parameters of sustainable social tourism were integrated and identified by key expert uncertainties using Interaction Analysis Questionnaire. Then, using the key uncertainties of the three scenarios, namely golden (optimistic), predictable (appropriate) and recessionary (pessimistic) future.

Unique historical background and attractions, specialized management, system planning and foreign policy and international relations of the most influential parameters and the world city of Zilo, competitive services and amenities, quality of land and air network network and promotion Technology in tourism has been identified as one of the most influential parameters, secondary lever exchange rate variations, market control of water and customs, and independent variable rituals. Capacity building for tourism in the age of communication and social cohesion is also considered as regulatory variables in sustainable social tourism.

The results obtained from the analysis and evaluation of sustainable social tourism strategies indicate that some strategies are useful and robust in only one or two scenarios and weak in others. Therefore, it is necessary to consider multifaceted strategies that can respond to situations in different situations