جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "cross impact analysis" در نشریات گروه "جغرافیا"

Neighborhood Planning It includes all the dimensions and characteristics of urban life that can be achieve the highest goal of the urban plan which is called spatial justice, by evaluating its driving factors and provides a suitable platform for sustainable urban development.the neighborhood, as one of the organs of the city system, is the basis of many urban policies and methods in the development of the world's urban sustainability landscape. The neighborhood approach has been proposed as a solution to deal with the physical disintegration of cities and the decline in social quality of contemporary urban environments, which have been formed in uniform contexts devoid of identity and spatial distinctions. According to this, the main goal of this research is to identify and driving the key factors of neighborhood planning with a future research approach in Ardabil city.

The method of research of this study in terms of purpose is applied and in terms of nature and method is descriptive-analytical. the statistical population of the research includes researchers in the field of neighborhood planning in Ardabil city. the sample size was 30 people that obtained by the snowball sampling(with theoretical saturation) and analyzed the data of this research with Micmac software. The working method is such that first the important variables in the desired domain are identified, then they are entered in a matrix such as the impact analysis matrix, and the degree of connection between these variables in the related domain is recognized by experts. The variables in the rows affect the variables in the columns; In this way, row variables are influential and column variables are influential. The correlation of variables is measured with numbers between zero and three. Such that, based on the opinions of the group of experts, they are valued in the form of numbers (zero means no), (1 means weak effect), (2 means medium effect) and (3 means high effect).It should be noted that the questions of the questionnaire were first approved by the experts and then measured in the experimental environment, and the results of the Cronbach's alpha test for the researchermade questionnaire were equal to 0.894, which indicates the high reliability of this tool research.

Ardabil city, which is the capital of Ardabil province, is located between Talash and Sablan mountains. According to the 2013 census, the population of Ardabil city was equal to 485,153 people, while in 2015, its population increased to 564,474 people. according to the latest division, it includes 5 regions and 51 neighborhoods. Ardabil city like the other city of iran country confront with excessive development; It has aggravated social, economic and environmental issues in the city. the result of these conditions has been the disruption of social and biological balance and stability, and spatial inequalities, especially in neighborhoods, and the lack of necessary capacities for harmonic development has to led the instability of neighborhoods. In the meantime, the differences and imbalances in the different textures of Ardabil city surface in the four forms of old texture (traditional and worn out) and marginal (informal settlement and transformed rural) and middle texture and new texture (planned) are related to this imbalance and instability in the urban scale is fueled. In order to achieve this goal at the level of Ardabil city, it is necessary to identify the key factors and driving forces of neighborhood planning in Ardabil city. the findings show that the distribution of the variables in the influence-affectability axis shows the stability or instability of the neighborhood planning system in Ardabil city. the variables of laws and instructions, strategic vision, administrative system, delegation of responsibility and legality, have the highest rankings of influence and variables of social trust, participation of residents, collective agreement, security and delegation of responsibility, have the highest rankings of overall influence. In totally, among the 23 variables which examined, 12 variables of those like rules and guidelines, administrative system, strategic insight, responsibility-responsibility, upstream plans, legality, justice-oriented, transparency, collaborative platform, delegation of responsibility, effectiveness and accountability have been selected as driving factors of neighborhood planning in Ardabil city.

Based on the result that we should considered the key role of the mentioned factors in this research of any neighborhood planning in Ardabil city. These variables have high influencing power and low dependence in improving neighborhood planning and they should be considered the first priority in planning a neighborhood in Ardabil city. Interaction between the government (regulating laws and balancing the relations of civil institutions), civil society (facilitating interactions between society and politics) and the private sector (creating income and jobs), redefining and resetting the power structure (political, economic and social) in organizations local, planning budget provision and budget distribution based on the principles of social capital, having a strategic and long-term vision of city managers for the future of the city and citizens, etc. are among the suggestions for better advancement of neighborhood planning with an emphasis on the future approach of research

The rapid changes of the second half of the twentieth century and the inefficiency of conventional planning methods led to the emergence and expansion of futurism, which in turn was used in the approach and methods used to identify and solve the problem. Regional foresight operates in a sub-national geographical area to make certain decisions to achieve the desired future, focusing on a specific territorial area. Accordingly, implementing this approach in the framework of the concept of regional development can significantly help update the country's development literature. The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors affecting regional development in Ghaen.

The present research is based on an exploratory-applied research method. The research process is such that the present research has collected the required data and information libraries in two ways. Articles, theses, dissertations, books, plans, and reports related to the topic have been collected and studied to review and identify the basics, concepts, and variables related to the topic. Also, using MICMAC method, key factors and drivers affecting the promotion of Ghaen city in regional development have been analyzed.

Based on the Delphi method, 37 variables were identified as factors affecting the regional development of Ghaen city and then analyzed using the interaction or structural effects analysis method by MICMAC software to extract the main factors affecting the future state of the environment. Based on the number of variables, the dimensions of the matrix are 37 x 37. By placing these factors in a matrix, the effect of each of these factors on each other was determined by weighting the factors (from zero to 3). All the factors involved in regional development are considered a system with intertwined elements and as a structure, and the relationships of these factors are measured to extract the most influential factors. The number of repetitions of the interaction of variables is considered twice, and the degree of matrix filling is 97.15% and shows the dispersion of variables affecting the future of Ghaen city. Out of 1330 relations that can be evaluated in this matrix, 39 were zero, 502 were number one, 744 were number two, and 84 were number three. Also, the matrix based on statistical indicators with two times of data rotation has 97% usefulness and optimization, indicating the questionnaire's high validity and answers. In the following, for a general analysis of the system environment and finally identifying the key effective factors. After identifying the variables, the first step is to form a matrix of pairwise comparisons extracted from Delphi meetings of managers (30 people in total) in which the impact of each variable on other variables is measured. Because the method of distribution and distribution of variables affecting the regional development of Ghaen city in the dispersion plane indicates the system's instability, three categories of variables (two-dimensional variables, regulatory variables, and independent variables) can be identified. Bidirectional variables: Bidirectional variables have a high impact and high affectivity, and any action on these variables will cause a reaction and change on other variables. The location of these variables in the impact plan is in the northeast. Bidirectional variables have a very high capacity to become key variables of the system. The following variables are known as two-dimensional variables according to their position in the impact-impact plan: employment structure, production technology, investment security, social participation, method and capacity of agricultural production, skilled manpower, the concentration of activities, Social development relations of the region, production of science, development of universities, GDP, relative economic growth, the pattern of interaction and cooperation with Afghanistan, the geopolitical position of the province, improvement of information technology infrastructure, coordination of organizations, ‌ production, and industrial prosperity, international Yazdan Bazaar, increasing investment in the province and the government's macro policies. Regulatory variables: Regulatory variables are located around the center of gravity of the chart or plan of influence - influence. These variables can be upgraded to effective variables or two-way variables. The following variables are known according to their location in the impact plan - the effectiveness of regulatory variables: improving the health network, social injustice in the distribution of municipal services, polluting industries, water resources, the transnational role of the province, improving the main road network, reducing ownership Government, the extent of devolution to the provincial and local levels, energy resources, the development of social networks, the construction of the provincial rail network and drought and natural hazards. Independent variables: Independent variables are located in the southwestern part of the impact-effectiveness plan. The following variables are called independent variables according to their location in the impact-impact plan: ethnicity, biodiversity, urban green space, entry and exit points of the city, hoarding, and stock exchange.

The results showed that the factors affecting regional development include relative growth, GDP, prosperity, investment, and policies, respectively, and indicate the influence of Ghaen regional development that has directly and indirectly affected. Therefore, by considering these key factors, regional development can be achieved in the city of Ghaen.

Planning as a regulatory process between public and private goals, as a result of the actions of individuals and groups deviates from its regulatory path and acts in a specific direction. This competition, influenced by power, has its own manifestation in the urban environment. The urban revolution and the consideration of the city as a spatial object, according to Lefebvre, put this socio-economic entity on a path that was increasingly attacked by capitalism, and the reproduction of artificial spaces for the accumulation of capital intensified. This reproduction is done in a set of rules and regulations and management policies that should, in fact, allocate space for public use, While the objective function of this city management organization has collapsed in favor of capital. This point has its own conditions in cities with rentier system. This is because in rentier systems, decentralization policies and, consequently, the strengthening of local institutions and urban management, in the absence of democratic conditions, have created a suitable environment for creating various types of rents and sometimes corruption. When urban space is considered as a commodity for possession, in this process urban management has its own impact. Sometimes as a law enforcement officer and sometimes as a competitor with private capital over urban space. All of this can be described as rent-seeking, in which individuals and groups try to divert resources to their advantage. All of these influences and everything that happens in the urban space are based on factors and contexts that seem to be rooted in the rentier political economy that governs the city system. Therefore, the present study tries to identify and explain the effective factors and contexts.

The present study can be considered as applied in terms of purpose, although it has also been developed and theoretically explained. Also, the approach is descriptive-analytical, which based on the data obtained from documentary studies, as well as conducting interviews and using a questionnaire, has analyzed the context of rent in Tabriz Municipality. For conducting interviews, open-ended questions have been designed and presented to a number of managers and experts in the field of urban management in the metropolis of Tabriz. The results, after theoretical saturation and combination with the results of documentary studies, are extracted in the form of propositions and form the basis of a questionnaire that is left to the judgment of elites and experts to determine the importance and degree of effectiveness of each criterion in the occurrence of rent and rent-seeking phenomenon. For this purpose, the Mick Mac questionnaire was used. This method is based on the analysis of interaction / structural effects.

The requirement for analyzing variables using Mick Mac software is to determine their interactions in the form of an effect matrix that acts as software input. To do this, a 39 * 39 matrix was set and the relationships between the variables in terms of effectiveness were determined based on the opinions of selected experts in a purposeful sampling way. The number of repetitions considered in the software is twice and the degree of filling is 68.63%. This indicates that they have affected each other in more than 68% of cases. Out of 1269 relationships that can be evaluated in the matrix, 580 cases were unrelated (number zero), 379 cases were weak relationship (number one), 585 cases were moderate relationship (number two) and 305 cases were strong relationship (number three). The pattern of distribution of research variables indicates that the system is unstable. The distribution model shows that macroeconomic factors of political economy generally have high impact and low impressible, and in contrast, the factors that are most impressible are the result of decisions and macro-political and economic environment. Such a situation indicates the power of external and extra-organizational factors to determine the status of the system. impressible factors or results are also factors that are affected by the macro-political environment and political economy and operate mostly at the organizational and local level, in other words, they are the output of the performance of macro-decisions and events. In the structural / interaction analysis matrix, the sum of the row numbers for each variable indicates the effect of the variable and the sum of the columns of each variable indicates its Impressive. According to the matrix results, the variables related to the "political economy factor" have the most impact on the system (the occurrence of the rent phenomenon) and the variables related to the "psychological factor" have the least impact. Also in terms of impressiveness, the variables related to "organizational factor" have the most impressiveness and the variables related to "legal factor" have the least. Based on the results of direct and indirect effects, the variable of power centers has the highest score. Also, all the identified key variables from rank one to 16 are repeated in direct and indirect impact, and the differences are only in their rank.

The present study seeks to identify and explain the factors affecting the formation of the phenomenon of rent and rent-seeking in the urban management organization. For this purpose, while conducting interviews with experts and managers related to urban management, first, 39 variables under 7 factors of political, political, economic, legal, organizational, socio-cultural and psychological economics were extracted. In the next step, using a questionnaire, the effectiveness of these variables was determined using the interaction / structural impact analysis method. In the next step, Mick Mac software was used to identify how the variables affect each other and identify key factors. The results of the software output can be summarized as follows; - Based on the pattern of distribution of variables, the system has an unstable state and the types of variables - influential, impressive, independent, regulatory and two-dimensional - can be identified in it. - The most effective is related to the variables of "political economy" and the least effective is related to the variables of "psychological". - In terms of impressiveness, the most impressiveness is related to "organizational" factor variables and the lowest impressiveness is related to "legal" factor variables. The key variables resulting from direct and indirect effects are identified as 16 variables, all of which are fixed and the differences are only related to their rank. These variables include; Centers of power, oil economy, lack of transparency, Clientelism policy, centralism, establishment of rentier state, weakness of popular institutions, government tenure, political influence, electoral assistance, desirability of rent-seeking among social groups, golden signatures, lobbying, the prevailing spirit of rent-seeking, the rule of the technocratic tradition among managers and the legal cases underlying rent. - Variables related to political economy are generally variables that have macro dimensions and in most cases are beyond the control of the local level of urban management. Local level variables are generally related to organizational factors that are generally the result of the performance of macro factors such as political economy. On the other hand, the variables related to political economy can be described as contextual variables that use their micro-organizational variables as tools to make their impact operational.

One of the new concepts to deal with the current challenges of cities in the field of urban planning is the development of smart cities. In this regard, the aim of the present study is to Urmia smart city planning with emphasis on the scenario writing approach. The research method is based on a future-research approach and techniques such as Delphi method, Cross Impact Analysis, Mick Mac software and Scenario Wizard software have been used to analyze the findings. The results show that 12 key factors play a key role in smartening the city of Urmia, for which 36 possible future situations were considered. Then, based on the opinions of experts and based on software analysis of the Wizard scenario, 7 strong scenarios were extracted. The results show that; 22.61% of these scenarios are favorable and 19.04% of the 7 scenarios show critical states. The probability of realization the static conditions is about 58.33%, which shows that in smartening the city of Urmia, the probability of static conditions is more than the two desired and critical states. Considering the current situation in Urmia, the continuation of the current situation (static conditions) is in fact a kind of crisis in the smartening of this city. Finally, based on the conditions of the scenarios and the situation of the key factors in the scenario panel, the solutions for smartening the city of Urmia were presented.

With the new developments in Iran, big cities quickly took over the growth and development factors and created a form of unbalanced system in the country's urban network. Meanwhile, strengthening middle-class cities at various levels of physical, economic and social was proposed as one of the most effective strategies to balance the distribution of population and economic activities in the regions. In this regard, the aim of this study is to identify the influential forces and ultimately the key factors affecting the growth and development of the central city of Khoy. In order to do this, Delphi technique was used for identifying the effective factors on the future condition of the system the result of which showed 30 initial effective factors on the future condition of the system were identified. In the next step, for extracting the key factors effective on the future procedure of the system, Cross Impact Analysis method was used by software Micmac. The results of the study show that the studied system is and unstable one and in the table of variables spread; five classes of factors (effective, Twosided, independent, influential and regulatory) can be identified. Finally, out of the 30 factors, 11 are the key factors for the main actors and affect the future status of the system. These factors actually play role as main players in the development of Khoy city. Given these factors in urban planning and policy making, one can witness a positive and tangible trend in the development of Khoy city at the provincial level. Nowadays, the world is at the bridge of significant developments and changes for which no match can be found in the history of mankind. It is a thorough revolution which has dominated all the fields and aspects of human life and will make a great gap between past and the future. There is no doubt that the world in the future will be the ground for developments and inconstancies and only those will be able to cope with different events who deal with changes in an active and preemptive way and even are the reason and agents of desirable changes. Here, the science of future studies, with an intelligent management of the future, has the ability to manage in a dynamic, inconstant, and unexpected environment and can pave the way for creating and architecting a desirable future by using modern managerial principles. It can be said that future-studies deals with change management.  This major, with its prospective, traditional planning, based on forecasting, challenges trends and designs beneficial guidelines and policies for mid-term and long-term periods in order to achieve a desirable future by using its comprehensive and systematic approach. Regional development through the growth of functional diversity of habitat and establish a strong relationship between them starts. Same basis of relationships and functional roles of settlements, settlement hierarchy is required in order to get the right pattern. With regard to the actual and potential role of central cities in regional development and it also accounts for a major share of its urban settlements, urban development, such as one of the ways to achieve a balanced network, more attention has been on the settlement.

  this study is applied-developmental and in terms of nature, it is descriptive-analytical.In order to do this, Delphi technique was used for identifying the effective factors on the future condition of the system the result of which showed 30 initial effective factors on the future condition of the system were identified. In the next step, for extracting the key factors effective on the future procedure of the system, Cross Impact Analysis method was used by software Micmac. The methods used in this study include: Delphi technique (for identifying effective factors on the future of the system), Cross Impact Analysis method (for identifying the effective key factors on the future condition of the system). The statistic society in this study was the experts and specialists of urban field and also the location of the study is  khoy city.

 This study, by using Cross Impact Analysis Approach  studies discusses the effective Components Affecting the Development of Medium-Sized City khoy. The goal of this study is to identify the key factors effective on the future condition of Components Affecting the Development of Medium-Sized City khoy. In order to do this, Delphi technique was used for identifying the effective factors on the future condition of the system the result of which showed 30 initial effective factors on the future condition of the system were identified. In the next step, for extracting the key factors effective on the future procedure of the system, Cross Impact Analysis method was used by software Micmac. The results of the study show that the studied system is and unstable one and in the table of variables spread; five classes of factors (effective, Twosided, independent, influential and regulatory) can be identified. Finally, . The structural analysis method was used with the help of MicMac software to extract key factors, where 11 factors were selected as key factors. These factors actually play role as main players in the development of Khoy city. Given these factors in urban planning and policy making, one can witness a positive and tangible trend in the development of Khoy city at the provincial level.

 Studying the future and planning for it is an inseparable part of the process of planning. In most cases, studying future, with emphasis on predicting and analyzing methods, has made innumerable problems in conducting different programs. These problems often arise from inattention to political, social, economic, and cultural effects and also an indifference to the novel or developing technologies in human’s life, or they could be because of neglecting the leading forces and key factors affecting the facilitation of the resolution of future problems. Nowadays, the world is at the bridge of significant developments and changes for which no match can be found in the history of mankind. It is a thorough revolution which has dominated all the fields and aspects of human life and will make a great gap between past and the future. There is no doubt that the world in the future will be the ground for developments and inconstancies and only those will be able to cope with different events who deal with changes in an active and preemptive way and even are the reason and agents of desirable changes. Here, the science of future studies, with an intelligent management of the future, has the ability to manage in a dynamic, inconstant, and unexpected environment and can pave the way for creating and architecting a desirable future by using modern managerial principles. It can be said that future-studies deals with change management.  This major, with its prospective, traditional planning, based on forecasting, challenges trends and designs beneficial guidelines and policies for mid-term and long-term periods in order to achieve a desirable future by using its comprehensive and systematic approach.An important feature of developing countries is the strong concentration of resources and populations in large cities and the spatial and geographical imbalances at the territorial level. In discussing decentralization of these cities, one of the basic issues is the need to look at the middle sections of the hierarchy of settlements, which in the meantime, Meanwhile, strengthening middle-class cities at various levels of physical, economic and social was proposed as one of the most effective strategies to balance the distribution of population and economic activities in the regions  With the growth and development of these cities, one can see a form of balanced urban system.

The intelligent managers of this era of constant changes and instability try to know opportunities, challenges, and variables effective on the system under their management so as to increase the possibility of their success. The managers of Yazd province – as one of the developed provinces of Iran – always try to step in the direction of sustainable growth and development by means of strategic planning, knowledge about the capacities of this province, and the management of the possible future challenges. The study at hand was carried out to attain this objective and to get a clearer image of the future of this province in order to identify the variables that are affective on the future of Yazd province. Moreover, conducting structural analysis through MICMAC method, it was tried to investigate the mutual effects of these variables on each other and identify the key drivers of what might form the future of this province. The important variables effective on the system were identified using library research, virtual space monitoring, surveying citizens, and future-related workshops. Variables were prioritized using importance and lack of certainty criteria. Then, the most important ones were fed into the direct effects matrix, and after completion with Delphi method, they were fed into MICMAC software. The outcome of the software was compared with the results of Dimtel method, and finally, the variables of the performance of organizations, balanced development, performance of land use plan, various types of tourism, and attention to water and environment were identified as the most effective variables in the formation of the future of the province.

Border cities because of their specific location and margins they are exposed to all kinds of stress and current and future dependent shocks economic, social, environmental, security and political challenges. One of the most important strategies in the world to respond to these challenges is the strategy of increasing the resilience of societies. Resilience approach by improving the level of adaptation and thus reducing the level of vulnerability in border cities reduces threats from natural hazards and human crises and improving sustainable management of these areas. In this study, the Effective drivers on the resilience of Abadan border city have been identified and analyzed. To identify the effective drivers in this research, first review the existing studies based on the literature (Books, Articles, Documents, Plans) a list of effective drivers in urban resilience was extracted. In the second step, in order to understand the external forces (key drivers) using interviews and open questionnaires (Delphi technique) Academic experts and city managers were asked to introduce Key drivers of resilience in the border cities of Abadan In five studies including sections of (Economic, Social, Environmental, Institutional - Organizational and Physical - Infrastructure). After obtaining key resilience drivers, the Cross Impact Analysis (Structural) Method and Mic Mac software it was used to investigate the level and how effectiveness of drivers and Identification of Effective drivers on the Resilience of Abadan City.

A large part of the housing future of vulnerable segments is affected by large factors that can not be controlled by municipalities or other decision-making bodies in the housing sector. Therefore, it is imperative that institutions involved in providing housing for low-income groups, instead of trying to anticipate and control the future, prepare themselves for the future of economic, social, political, technological and other developments that are the first step in this direction. Developing future housing scenarios for vulnerable populations.

In this research, using this method, we try to draw a reasonable and believable future (scenarios) for low-income housing, helping planners find the best solutions to solve this problem. After reviewing the theoretical foundations, a series of influential impacts on the future of the Tehran metropolitan area were identified and examined based on the cross-impact analysis method.

According to the results of cross-impact analyzes of four drivers, the status of land policy, urban poverty, per capita income and population growth were among the key drivers. In the meantime, the growth rate of per capita income is reflected in the fact that it directly affects urban poverty and somehow represents it, and is expressed in terms of urban poverty.

Accordingly, the framework of the scenarios is 3 uncertainties: 1. The urban poverty status of the Tehran metropolis. 2. The population growth rate of the Tehran metropolis. 2. Attitudes of the land. Forms the land management style. Based on 3 proponents and 8 possible scenarios, the third scenario and the eighth scenario, due to the contradiction between the simultaneous occurrence of decentralization from Tehran and the increase in the population growth rate, were internalized and eliminated. Also, the fifth and seventh scenarios, due to the contradiction between continuity of concentration in Tehran and the decline in population growth rate, were internal incompatibility and were removed from the list of scenarios. Thus, 4 scenarios remained, and scenario scenarios were presented for each of the scenarios.

Problem Statement: 

The city is a complex system of social and economic interactions between a multitude of human and non-human factors that require new approaches to planning and managing it. Futures studies and foresight are new discourses with an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary nature which are among collaborative approaches and can create new perspectives on urban management in combination with conventional urban planning.

The main objective of this study was to provide alternative images of the future of Isfahan city in the framework of scenario method.

The present study was an applied research that, by using cross-impact analysis approach, provides scenarios of future of Isfahan. Participants in this study were 21 experts in urban planning and foresight.

By using the library studies and referring to the upstream documents of Isfahan, 22 primary factors influencing the future of Isfahan were identified. From these 22 factors, by using the Mick-Mac software, 7 factors were selected as key factors. These seven factors were summarized in the format of three driving forces as the bases for developing scenarios facing the municipality of Isfahan: technology, urban economics, and the environment. These scenarios were named: «Garden with Wi-Fi», «Isfahan 13 to B13» and «Now we are all fine but don't believe it». The first scenario illustrates the optimistic and utopian scenario, the second scenario the cynical and destructive one, and the third scenario depicts the continuation of the current status.

Innovation: 

Application of Scenario Planning and Participatory Approach as a new approach in Isfahan urban management.

One of the most important issues of sustainable urban development is the study and forecast of land use change patterns that are directly related to climate pollution, soil erosion and demographic and economic changes. The city of tomorrow is the result of today's decisions. Therefore, it cannot be prepared for future issues and future challenges, notably in the field of land use in metropolises, irrespective of future and futures studies. Therefore, this research with the approach of future study sought to investigate and identify the factors affecting land use change in Tabriz metropolitan area from 2018 (1397 AH) to 2028 (1407AH). The research method was an exploratory analytical type. The required information was collected from a survey of documents and a researcher-made questionnaire. To analyze the results, Cross Impact Analysis technique has been used in MicMac software. The results indicated that urban development, economic dependence, dominant economic role of the city, urban development plans, housing market development, manufacturing relations, capital accumulation, urban change, economic reconstruction, land prices, and migration respectively had the most effect on land use changes in Tabriz metropolitan area.

Aiming at identifying the key factors which may affect the future status of Tehran Province spatial planning, this study was conducted with a future studies approach. This study is an applied study in terms of targeting strategy and its methodology is of descriptive-analytical and regarding the future studies methods it is an explanatory one. Following the Delphi method, the theoretical and practical data have been collected using documentary and survey research techniques, respectively. To carry out this study, a total of 20 urban experts who were professional in regional, spatial planning areas were chosen based on purposive sampling method. MIC MAC was used to analyze the gained information from Delphi methods and to carry out the cross-impact analysis. The results of this study indicated that the dispersion of key and effective variables of the future status of Tehran Province spatial planning has an unstable system. The study also showed that out of 64 examined factors in this study, 22 key factors may affect the future status of Tehran Province spatial planning. A great deal of such key factors has been concentrated in the effective and double variables group.

the purpose of this study, identifying and analyzing the key factors affecting the planning of a creative city with emphasis on Urmia city. Applied research type and in terms of nature, based on new methods, futures studies are analytic and exploratory. The statistical population of this study is 30 professors and experts in the field of urban planning. Data gathering method to explore the components of the creative city (the 10 main criteria are: scale, creative industries, creative class, creativity infrastructure, efficiency and effectiveness, vitality, communication technology, social diversity, social capital, quality of life with 16 sub-criteria and 106 indicators which has been selected based on a thorough review of external and internal resources) in both forms of documentation (secondary data) and survey (initial data) and the tools used in the survey method were questionnaires and interviews. To analyze the data, a combination of expert panel methods, cross-Impact analysis and Mick Mac software have been used. The results of the research and the distribution and dispensation of variables on the dispersion page indicate the system's instability. Based on the results of McMean software, 15 factors, given the fact that they had the most direct and indirect effects, they were selected as key factors. Of the 15 selected key factors, six factors are related to the creative class and three factors related to creativity infrastructure, which has the greatest impact on Urumia's pursuit of creative city realization.

The present study uses a cross-impact analysis technique, one of the most common and accepted predictive methods, by using the Mick-Mac software to analyze the urban prosperity components of the metropolitan metropolis of Tabriz. For this purpose, firstly , all the factors involved in urban development and prosperity were analyzed and using the Delphi method, 78 components in five areas (productivity, infrastructure, quality of life, Equity and inclusion, and environmental sustainability) were extracted as urban prosperity indicators. Cross-impact/ structural analysis was used to analyze the data using MICMAC software application. The results of the research indicate Tabriz metropolis is a system instability that most variables are scattered around the diagonal axis, and on the Scattered page, the five categories of factors (Effective factor, Two-sided factor, Regulation factor, Effectiveness factor, Independent factor) are identifiable. Finally, of the 78 factors mentioned after checking the amount and the degree of effectiveness the of factors in connection to each other and on the future status of the prosperity metropolis of Tabriz with direct and indirect methods, of the following 15 key factors (Unemployment rate, Literacy rate, Durable housing, Public transport capacity, Poverty, Gini coefficient, Women's Employment, cultural centers, Maternal mortality, air pollution, Infant mortality, Marginalization Youth employment, Public Schools, Industry) that having the greatest role in the future status of prosperity metropolis of Tabriz were selected .