جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « جنوب غرب آسیا » در نشریات گروه « جغرافیا »

Globalization and entering the age of information and communication have caused geographic spaces to be mixed and the spatial links to be expanded to a significant extent. This increase has boosted significantly the communication functions of borders. However, with the spread of the corona virus, extensive changes were made, the links between geographical spaces were transformed, and the communication function of borders was greatly affected. Accordingly, in the current research, which was carried out using a descriptive and analytical method, an attempt was made to see what effects the spread of the corona virus had on the communication function of borders in Southwest Asia. The results showed that the spread of the corona virus has had a wide impact on the acquired functions of borders in such a way that it has greatly affected the communication function of borders in Southwest Asia and reduced the links between spaces to a great extent that in some cases it has been replaced by a barrier function. On the other hand, the nation-building, legitimizing and even economic functions of borders have been highlighted after the spread of the Covid-19. Although the virus disease was controlled and subsided to some extent, it seems that human societies will face many such diseases and problems in the future, which is necessary to pay attention to its impact. The results of this study can provide the basis for countries’ preparation and reduce the insecurities and challenges caused by such problems to a significant extent.

To support the proper management of ecosystems, vulnerability analysis of ecosystems is very important. Vulnerability analysis of ecosystems provides information about weaknesses and capacity of the studied ecosystem for recovery after damage. Considering the degradation status of Miangaran wetland, vulnerability evaluation of this wetland is one of the most important management methods in the region. For this purpose, in this study, after identifying and evaluating the threatening factors of Miangaran wetland, these factors were scored using evaluation matrices. Then, the interaction between these values ​​and threatening factors was examined and the vulnerability of wetland values ​​was obtained by multiplying the scores of all studied factors. Finally, management solutions were presented to deal with the most important threatening factors. According to the results, the most vulnerability is to the hydrological and ecological values ​​of the wetland. The highest effects of threats on the ecological value are also on the birds of Miangaran wetland. The results of the evaluation of Miangaran Wetland show that this wetland has a high potential for ecosystem functions of the wetland. These functions have been neglected in the planning and managing of wetlands at the local, regional and national levels. As a result, ecosystem-based management is suggested as the best management approach. The management in these areas should take action to prevent the vulnerability of Miangaran wetland. Also, the vulnerability evaluation method used in this study can provide a good understanding of the relationship between wetland functions and the resulting services for the management of the ecosystem of Miangaran Wetland.

The temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in Iran is affected by the distribution of global and regional atmospheric circulation systems which the slightest change in its pattern leads to severe climatic anomalies. Therefore, it is important to know more precisely the mechanism and operation of effective atmospheric circulation patterns in the occurrence of precipitation, especially action centers. Arabian anticyclone is one of the components of atmospheric circulation affecting Iran's winter precipitation. The anticyclone that is located on the Arabian Sea, transfer humidity to sublatitudes over the Middle East and Iran by clockwise motion. Hence, the spatial behavior of the mentioned atmospheric conditions has been studied in the form of the frequency of its centers spatial distribution with light, medium and heavy precipitation in Iran in the cold period (October to March).

For this study, re-analyzed precipitation data of the ERA Interim of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with 1o*1o spatial resolution and atmospheric data of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) with spatial resolution of 2.5o*2.5° were used. So, in the first step to achieve the research aim, rainy days for the statistical period of 1981-2010 were extracted in three categories; light (1-10 mm), medium (10-30 mm) and heavy (More than 30 mm). Base on the average spatial location of the Arabian anticyclone, for proper division of the range to identify and analyze the temporal and spatial behavior of this anticyclone, the area was considered from 30 to 80 degrees East longitude and 0 to 30 degrees North latitude. The geographical location of anticyclone center was extracted by defining the maximum criterion of geopotential height in all rainy days within its activity range. 20 sub-areas were defined to better represent the position of the anticyclone. Finally, the frequency and dispersion of the geographical location of the Arabian anticyclone at the desired level is plotted and displayed based on the number of closed centers in each sub-areas. Also, for those sub-areas which had more number of anticyclone centers, the daily average geopotential height and daily average precipitation maps were drawn and analyzed.

Rainy days 1-10 mm From 2023 days with precipitation of 1-10 mm, 1622 days (80.2%), Arabian anticyclone has had an independent closed center at the level of 850 hPa. Among these, the highest frequency of anticyclone centers has been observed on the southeast of Arabian Peninsula, the Arabian Sea, the Indian subcontinent and the eastern coasts of the Arabian Sea in the range of 40 to 80 degrees east and 10 to 30 degrees north, respectively. The highest frequency of centers (sub-ranges of expansion) (spatial distribution of precipitation in Iran) in the range of 8 with 675 (southeast of the Arabian Peninsula) (western half, northeastern, eastern and region in central Iran), 9 with 213 (northern part of the Arabian Sea) (all of Iran but concentrated in the western half to the south and northeast), 10 with 197 (Indian subcontinent and the eastern coasts of the Arabian Sea) (almost all of Iran), 3 with 172 (southern Iran and Persian Gulf) (western Iran) and 4 with 99 (Pakistan and southeast) (almost all of Iran and concentrated in the west) have been observed.Rainy days 10-30 mmFrom 167 days of 10-30 mm of precipitation, 67.3% (104 days) of the independent closed center of Arabian anticyclone was observed. In other cases, the extension of a trough from the Siberian and Tibetan anticyclones on the study area and its integration with the Arabian anticyclone has been observed. The frequency of anticyclone centers in this part has been on the southeast of the Arabian Peninsula and the northern part of the Arabian Sea and in the range of 50 to 75 degrees east and 17 to 27 degrees north. The highest frequency of centers (sub-ranges of expansion) (spatial distribution of precipitation in Iran) in the range of 8 with 35 (southeast of the Arabian Peninsula) (west half to south of Iran but concentrated in the west, southwest and Zagros mountains), 9 with 25 (northern part of the Arabian Sea) (almost all of Iran but concentrated in the southwest), 10 with 17 (Indian subcontinent and the eastern coasts of the Arabian Sea) (all of Iran but concentrated in the west, southwest and south) have seen, respectively.Rainy days more than 30 mm Throughout the statistical period, 55 days were accompanied by heavy precipitation, of which 23 days (less than 50%) the Arabian anticyclone had a closed center. 32 days were observed on the study area along with Tibetan and Siberian anticyclones trough. The frequency and spatial distribution of anticyclone centers has been scattered. It covers 50 to 74 degrees east longitude. Its maximum concentration was in the two southeastern regions of the Arabian Peninsula and the Arabian Sea. The highest frequency of centers (sub-ranges of expansion) (spatial distribution of precipitation in Iran) in the range of 8 with 8 (southeast of the Arabian Peninsula and Oman Sea) (western half of Iran but focus on the southwest), 9 with 7 (Arabian Sea) (northwest to south of Iran but concentrated in the west), 10 with 17 (Indian subcontinent and eastern coasts of the Arabian Sea) (all of Iran but concentrated in the west, southwest and south) center is observed, respectively.

The results showed that on light, medium and heavy rainy days 80.2, 67.3 and 41.8%, respectively, the Arabian anticyclone has an independent closed center and on other days, it is combined with a trough of Siberian and Tibetan anticyclones at the level of 850 hPa. There is a high correlation between the location of position centers at level 850 hPa on the sea, and the distribution and amount of precipitation in Iran. As with the occurrence of precipitation in Iran, the frequency of anticyclone centers is concentrated on the southeastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula and the Arabian Sea. But the maximum precipitation (heavy precipitation) in Iran is when anticyclone is located in the Arabian Sea. In general, moving east towards anticyclone and settling on the Arabian and Oman Seas, according to the prevailing atmospheric circulation mechanism, is the most suitable model for transferring moisture to the incoming precipitation systems to Iran. It can be said that the position of this anticyclone and its displacement, especially to the east and northeast, is directly related to the amount and position of the maximum precipitation zone in Iran.

The concept of power and its wielding resources and tools have always evolved and changed throughout history. Any scientific or technological advancement, whether in the first military equipment or mass destruction weapons, or in the economic or political power resources, has in some way caused a change in the behavior of the actors and in many cases displaced the centers of power and their owners. Southwest Asia has been in a state of tension and instability since the end of World War I due to the unbalanced distribution of power resources and the competitive behavior of actors. In this paper, by examining new changes in the concept and power resources, their results on the distribution of power and balance of power in Southwest Asia are examined and analyzed. The study shows that, especially in the 21st century, with the collapse of the traditional balance of power in the region and the loss of power in Iraq, Syria and even Libya, and the entry of new and inexperienced actors such as Qatar and the UAE into the regional has intensified chaos and laid the foundation for widespread instability

Conceptual models are representations of a system that easily show us the abstract concepts of the relationships between objects in the system. In fact, no matter how systematic and meaningful the drawing of models in the field of science, can improve the understanding of issues and topics. Meanwhile, the region of Southwest Asia is of special geopolitical importance due to its privileged geographical facilities and locations, as well as its rich resources. But the developments in this region have caused the involvement of various actors. These actors, with different and even contradictory goals, ideologies, and behaviors, have caused the crisis in the region to continue. In other words, no matter how much the geographical source of power is geopolitically appropriate if there is a basis for more attractiveness to log in and the role of actors too large and large. If you are currently presenting a new tariff on geopolitics and dividing geopolitical actors into three groups: main and focal actors, semi-peripheral actors, and peripheral actors, in the next step you have tried to systematically present the geopolitical relations of Southwest Asia by presenting a conceptual model. Because accurate knowledge of the geopolitical relations between these actors allows geopoliticians to formulate the best strategy for the volatile region of Southwest Asia.

The factors shaping the Iraqi political , in order of priority, are internal, regional, and transnational. Given that the first and the most important level shaping the political and social life of each country is the internal level, and if we accept that the internal component of the crisis is beginning and continued, then the regional and trans-regional components must have a role Aggravating and accelerating the crisis and its continuity. Based on this, the purpose of this study was to explain the geopolitical aspects of religious crises in Southwest Asia (case study of Iraq). To this end, to respond to the research hypotheses, an analytical-descriptive research method was used, using field research and documentation, and interviewing and the questionnaire was used by professors and senior geopolitical experts specializing in the field of research. For analyzing the data obtained in this research, a descriptive study was conducted to show the information in frequency tables and percentages and charts, and from a single sample T for rejection or confirmation Research hypotheses were used. The results of the data analysis showed that: Geopolitics Religious crises are effective in empowering political and religious groups in Iraq. The vacuum of US power in Iraq has led to geopolitical crises by the regional powers in that country.Religious crises in Iraq have led to the collapse of political power at the national and regional levels.Religious crises from the geopolitical dimension have led to the emergence of widespread insecurity at the national and transnational level.

Shi'ism is one of the main religions of Islam, less events can be studied in Southwest Asia, which is not related to Shiites. Shiites are the agents and agents of events, and sometimes the subject of political-social events . In spite of religious and cultural similarities and common interests, the sects in the present age suffer from components that, as a problem, intensify the process of non-convergence in Shi'a societies and prevent cohesion. Considering the importance of the subject, the author in this paper uses the analytical method, the use of library studies and field studies Assuming: "The political, security, and cultural-social components of the region can affect the Shi'a's lack of convergence," the paper seeks to analyze the factors affecting the Shi'a's lack of convergence in the South West Asia region. Field research findings indicate that the adoption of Shi'a-based policy by regional powers, Salafism and sectarianism, regional power actions and policies, economic and social inequalities, geographical dispersion, territorial disputes, religious and ideological conflicts, And the support of the extreme Shiite movement from divisive actions is one of the most important factors in Shi'a disintegration in the Southwest Asia region.

Southwest Asia countries engage in many political, cultural, religious, economic and ideological challenges; these countries lack a comprehensive regional structure and, hence, are unable to take a step to resolve the created conflicts and challenges. Functions of a comprehensive regional structure aimed at resolving the conflicts and challenges in Southwest Asia is the main problem of this research. the required research data were collected using both the library and field methods. Descriptive-analytical and one sample t-test approaches were used for the library and field methods respectively. Based on the population of the research, the findings of the research indicate that factors such as the confrontation of the countries with natural hazards like ultrafine dust and environmental pollution, the formation of regional organizations such as the Islamic Conference, etc, the access of the most countries of the region to international waters, joint cooperation of Iran, Iraq and Turkey to counter the Kurdistan region's separatist actions, visa waiver and tariff cuts are the most important bases for achieving integration in Southwest Asia.

Nowadays, Southwest Asia is inflamed by terrorist attacks and rioting groups mainly in Iraq and Syria, invasion of Saudi Arabia to Yemen and its interferences in Bahrain, political agitations in north Iraq, increased tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and presence of Iranian military and counselors in Iraq and Syria. In such conditions, the aims of some Arabian states including the Saudi Arabia are to prevent geopolitical influence of Iran in the region and augment their military and economic power. Following the aims, the countries attempt to utilize these circumstances for their interests and against Iran through forming military-Arabian coalescence.
In May, 2017, with an increase in the interest of the Arabian states around the Persian Gulf to form the new military-Arabian coalescence, as it was called Arabian NATO by some journalists, the USA seriously supported the coalescence. This was cleared by the travel of American president, Donald Trump, to Riyadh.
Constitution of such coherent coalescence in the past was not successful due to geographical dispersion of the Islamic states, differences in the views of the states about the political and international approach of Iran, and difference in identity of the nations. Although these attempts in the past were failed, this time the Arabian states particularly Saudi Arabia supported by the trans-regional states like USA are serious to form the coalescence.
The purpose of this research is to address the event by exploring the geopolitical reasons of the interest, neo-realism approach, and using cross-effects analysis technique and also to understand the impacts of the event on national security of Iran. This is an applied research by an integrated-analytical method. In the research, the data have been gathered by library sources and internet. We have used cross-effects analysis technique as a method in future research strategies. We have also applied Delphi method using questionnaires to obtain the components affecting the event. In this study, we have investigated the reasons and favorable conditions for constitution of the Arabic military coalescence in southwest Asia by a neo-realistic approach in geopolitics. The possible impacts of the coalescence on the national security of Iran have also been accessed. In other sciences such as international relations the neo-realistic approach is used to understand the interests of the countries to form such coalescences, fear from one or more rival countries, and the issues about balances of powers, balances of threats, and balances of interests. Among the issues, the theory of hegemony is outlined. This mentions the influence of the dominant power on united and convergent international structures.
After we received the views of experts about potential influences of the factors affecting the formation of the coalescence in southwest Asia, the views have been analyzed. The results of the model have revealed the factors encouraging the Arabian states to form the anti-Iran coalescence. These factors are including the influence of trans-regional powers, particularly United States, geographical characteristics of the Persian Gulf region, environmental issues and limitations, huge volume of oil and gas resources of the region, higher population of Iran relative to the Arabian states. There are some factors that can threaten the security of Iran. Trans-regional powers, particularly the USA, play important role in configuration of the coalescence. The economic rivalry and occupation of economic markets of the southwest Asia and the resources of oil and gas of Persian Gulf is very important for the Arabian countries. On the other hand, the main goal of the Arabian states in formation of the coalescence is to decrease the security and geopolitical influence of Iran in the region. Therefore, this can be concluded that the coalescence can affect the national security of Iran in military and economic areas in the present and the future. As security means lack of threat in the existing values, these factors and goals of the states are direct threats for the issues.
The increased military power of Iran, increased internal security and the higher geopolitical influence of Iran after Islamic Revolution are concerns for rivals of Iran in the geopolitical region of Persian Gulf. Thus, the states decided to take common policies in order to prevent the increase in the power of Iran in the region and guarantee the survival of their government. The changes can be explained by the theory of hegemony as the Arabian states obey the dominant powers including USA.
Unlike the views of the researchers and authorities of Iran, the results of this research have indicated that the variables such as religion, language, and invasion to Iran embassy in Saudi Arabia were nor effective in the interests of the Arabian states. The states are not interested in decrease in their economic relations with Iran.
It can be suggested that before the military-Arabian coalescence is formed, in such critical conditions, Iran government should make great attempts to mitigate the Iranophobia in this region and to make the countries aware of the extensive security damage to entire the region and the maximum interests the coalescence can bring for the USA. Based on the findings of this research, economic and military security of Iran is threatened by formation of the coalition. Thus, it is necessary for the diplomacy of Iran to make further efforts to mitigate the Iran-phobia in the region. In other words, as the formation of the Arabian military coalition can endanger the security and economic conditions of Iran, the government of Iran has to prevent the formation of the coalition and weaken its development. So, Iranian government has to make the world aware of its peaceful purposes and reduce the Iranophobia among the countries of the region. Additionally, Iran has to make the neighboring states aware of the great damages this coalition may have for all the states of the region and the highest benefits of that for the Americans.

As the first step, daily maps of synoptic system order of the region during July and August, the hottest months of the year, were investigated. The data belong to a statistical period (1993- 2014) extracted from the study center of NCEP/NCAR. Applying factor analysis test and clustering on web data, four synoptic patterns were recognized and the representative days of the patters were investigated. The aforesaid patterns present a similar patterns of the thermal equator and pressure systems in the region. The research results indicate that the Thermal equator is located in the south of Sahara in this time of year and it continues along the east, arid and low regions of the Arabia Peninsula, and the south of the Persian Gulf, Khuzestan plain, and Mesopotamia. Moreover, Gang low spread on the southwest of Asia also follows this pattern, as three main cores of low pressures are made on the low regions of Khuzestan plain and Mesopotamia, the south of the Persian Gulf, the north of the Arabia Peninsula and the center of Pakistan. This thermal belt on the lowlands of Mesopotamia (located in West Plateau of Iran) has the most intense and extending transverse and to be included from the northern half of the Iraq to southern part of Saudi Arabia. The thermal equator extends in the study area from the level 1000 to 850 hPa in accordance with the development of low Gang Tongue.

Precipitation is climatic elements that have temporal - spatial distribution. In this research used database of Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) with a resolution 0.5×0.5 degree for 50 year was constituted with dimensions of 12800*600. the time period which on the columns and pixels located on the rows. The results shown that, increasing trend in spring and fall but in summer and winter precipitation trend has been decreased. Precipitation gravity is located in the northern parts of the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea, Southeast Asia, southern coast of the Caspian and Central Zagros Mountains. Most of middle east not trend(%95) and only in parts of Kazakhstan, Afghanistan and Pakistan and geographic areas in lower-latitude had positive trend and most of the area is gradient 0- 0.5.

South West Asia in recent years has seen extensive development in various fields. These developments in a range of political, security, geopolitics, the social problems of the region in different aspects of world's attention. In the meantime one of the most important events in the region of anomalous environmental phenomena are dust Over the past few years, people living in countries such as Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been affected. Among the features of this natural phenomenon and it is the nature of the crossborder nature of geopolitics has this feature. Therefore any action in this regard is subject .to multilateral cooperation between the countries have been involved But another problem is that the countries involved in this issue politically, which is influenced by the ideological conflicts, Sometimes tense relations are. This paper seeks
to examine this issue, which is a natural phenomenon of dust as the geopolitical implications for relations between countries in the region will leave And the problems caused by this leads to the formation of some form of cooperation among the countries
of the region will not like Or that it is cold in the shadow of political relations between the countries were discussed and the problems of people And their quality of life will
continue to be.

Intrduction : Southeast Asia deserves more sustained attention from American policymakers than it has received in the recent past, according to the independent Task Force report. It argues that Southeast Asia has a long history of important security and economic ties with the United States and is of strategic interest. Yet the United States has benignly neglected the area and its needs and growth potential for almost two decades. With the economic crisis in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in the late 1990s, the reestablishment of U.S. diplomatic ties with Vietnam, and the recent ethnic strife and devolution in Indonesia, the region and its member nations are back on the international skyline. The shortsightedness of recent U.S. policy toward the region, the report states, is troublesome because of the region’s importance to U.S. national interests: with a population of 525 million and an annual gross national product of $700 billion, Southeast Asia has become America’s fifth-largest trading partner; it is home to several emerging democracies. Today, the region is more volatile than at any time since the Vietnam War. In several nations, especially Indonesia and the Philippines, the aftershocks from the economic crisis and rising political turmoil continue to make for fractious polities, fragile economies, and a loss of investor confidence. The report recommends that the United States maintain regional security by preserving a credible military presence and a viable regional training and support structure. That, according to the Task Force, will help prevent both intraregional conflict and domination by outside powers. The report also devotes particular attention to U.S. relations with Indonesia. The Task Force says that helping to foster economic and political reform in Indonesia—now in the “throes of social, political, and economic instability”—would have important implications in the region and the world. Indonesia, the Task Force notes, is the world’s fourth most populous nation and the fulcrum of Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and has the world’s largest Muslim community. It is also a major oil exporter and the only Asian member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
The research is basic in terms of its goal, and casual and descriptive- analytic in terms of method and nature. Data gathering procedure is based on library findings.
Result and The United States strategic blunders in South West Asia at the turn of the 21st Century have not led to any strategic gains to reinforce the United States image and standing in South West Asia. The United States can be said to have lost heavily in strategic terms when viewed against the fact that its military distractions in Afghanistan and Iraq led it to be militarily oblivious to the security of the Asia Pacific and East Asia in particular. The strategic vacuum caused by US inattentiveness led China to exploit this vacuum by an unrestrained and fast-track military rise for over a decade. The recent United States strategic pivot to Asia Pacific is a belated effort to reverse the above trend and win back South East Asian nations unnerved by China’s aggression in the South China Sea and East China Sea areas. On balance it can be stated that the United States strategic blunders in South West Asia have cost it heavily not only in South West Asia but also in Asia Pacific. In strategic terms it will take years for the United States to regain its strategic balance. How should the next U.S. president exercise strategic leadership in East Asia?
First, with good reason for fundamental optimism – because there remains very significant regional demand for U.S. leadership in East Asia.
Second, with empathy for allies and supporter states. It is crucial for the next U.S. president to recognize that, unlike the United States, East Asian states have to live permanently in China’s shadow. Very few regional leaders will choose – or be able to stick with – policies that actively antagonize China. This is because their relationships with China stretch beyond maritime disputes to encompass economic and security interdependence. In this context, U.S. strategic leadership means enabling these states to keep supporting U.S. leadership without forcing them to make zero-sum choices vis-à-vis China.
Third, with resolve towards China. This resolve can cut two ways. The new president can choose to play hardball, upholding U.S. interests and principles clearly and firmly and responding in kind to Chinese assertiveness. This may work: Chinese leaders may continue to be deterred by the specter of a potential military conflict with the U.S. that they might not be able to win. But I would recommend applying resolve in a different way: Persuade China to become the world’s most important supporter of a regional and global order that the U.S. wants to uphold. This is a more difficult enterprise because it will involve a change of mindset in Washington, from the current take-it-or-leave-it attitude towards some negotiation with China about reforms it wants to see and the role it wants to play in the international order.
The U.S new administration will try to consider initiating a workable framework for cooperation with China in key regional maritime issues, such as navigational safety, zones. It seems to me that the only viable short- to medium-term means of managing the South China Sea disputes is the tried and tested one of China and the other rival claimants agreeing to put aside the territorial disputes, possibly in favor of selected projects of joint resources protection, exploration and development. While these agreements will not directly involve the U.S., which is a non-claimant, Washington can lead in creating more propitious “weather conditions” for such an outcome, by shifting the current dynamic away from the deadlock over international arbitration and freedom of navigation.

Relationship pattern has a complex, combinational and also intelligible nature in the current geopolitical structure of the world. Civilizations’ relations together and Civilization interactions include: engagement, competition and conflict in a range of geopolitical treatment pattern. Some of spatial values which originated challenges among region country have Civilization nature. Iranian’s Civilization have located near various Civilizations’ which this vicinity leads forming a pattern of relations which contain friendly to inimically relations in a wide range during thousands of years. This Civilization has formed during history and has cached politicians’ opinion in the political process. Regional claiming actors try to extend their penetrations by magnifying their Civilization elements
Theoretical Framework: Geopolitical relations are these which are based on combination of elements such as politics, power and geography between countries, stats and political actors.
Geopolitical relations between regional and trans-regional can be seen in the following forms: Interaction relation. Consist of different and interactional relations between actors based on common goals and interests.
Domination relation. Caused by inequality of power between actors of stronger actors impose their own wills on weaker actors.
Influence relation. Influence is a kind of reflexive of domination and result of inequality of power.
Competitive relation. This relation forms based on relative equality of power of actors.
Confrontational relation. This relation forms frequently based on equality of power between actors when Conflicting interests between actors have special importance so that competition between them goes out of standard limit and leads to conflict.
This article tries to analyses human structures and cultural realms in West Asia and political relation of this regions whit Iran’s Civilization structure, using an analytical-discerbtive method and reeling on library recourses.
Findings and Research result show that Iran’s Civilization has a special today which contains geostrategic situation and its enormous recourses; but we should note is that this Civilization has encountered many challenges and these challenges predispose its debilitation. All Civilization loops around Iran have special strategic depth and Iran is only country where has relied itself without any support in this full competition world. Sami Civilization in the south support Persian Gulf Cooperation Council and Arab union, Torani Civilization headed by Turkey, supports by Europe union and the United States and also Slavic Civilization based on Russia’s efficient power is in a better situation than Iran.

In this paper, the authors have studied the large-scale atmospheric circulation over southwest Asia during a boreal summer. First, substantial characteristics and nature of the large-scale atmospheric circulation are investigated. Then, temporal variability of the circulation was examined during a 61-years period (1948-2008). The findings indicate that the onset of the Asian monsoon is associated with the formation of a permanent westward flow in the upper troposphere. The corresponding maximum convergence and subsidence locations of the flow are the energy sinks over the southwest Asia and east of the Mediterranean Sea, respectively. Maintenance of the large-scale atmospheric subsidence creates a transverse meridional gradient in the temperature field; therefore, the meridional large-scale circulation is changed and this in return creates a transverse Hadley circulation which forms over southwest Asia. Investigating nature of the summertime anticyclones over southwest Asia reveals that the anticyclones are dominant in all tropospheric levels. They are originally formed either as a result of the descending air which is basically originated from the monsoon region, or by accumulated heat of the surface of high plateaus in the mid-troposphere due to intensive vertical advection of heat over southwest Asia, or a combination of both. The result also reveals that among the physical, dynamical, and Jet indices, the physical index more favorably shows characteristics of the summertime circulation. Based on the physical index, it’s found that the averaged summer season timing starts on June 7 and ends on September 28 over southwest Asia. Investigations on the temporal variability of the atmospheric circulation, indicates a considerable decreasing of summer length in the recent decades. On this basis, although the starting time of the summer shows very small changes in its long-term trend, the trend line shows an eight to nine days decreasing in the season’s length during the study period. The result revealed that the decreasing of summer length from 117 days to 109 days over southwest Asia is mainly due to the early ending of summertime in recent decades. It is also found that both the southwest Asia and the Asian monsoon regions have experienced similar decreasing trend in their summer large-scale circulation strength during the study period. Examining the synoptic scale atmospheric components showed a considerable strengthening of the Arabian high and low and the Shomal wind over the Arabian Peninsula. On the other hand, the Turkmenistan anticyclone, the Pakistan low and the Sistan wind in the east and northeast of Iran plateau experienced a slight weakening in their activity. Also, Examination of the horizontal divergence field shows an increasing trend in the intensity of anticyclonic circulation on Iran and on the Zagros convergence zone in recent years. The NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis dataset (Kalnayet al. 1996) in a 61-years period (1948-2008) were used to study the summer atmospheric circulation. In this research, variables of the Geopotential Height (gpm), Temperature, and Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR), zonal and meridonal wind components the dataset were used to calculate horizontal divergence field, divergent wind, relative vorticity and diabatic heating. We first examined the sinks and sources of energy in regional scale. Then, zonal and meridional large-scale circulations as well as their vertical structure were analyzed for April-October months in the period over southwest Asia to derive prevailing circulation patterns. Three regional indices including physical index, Jet Index, and dynamical index were designated to determine the starting/ending time and the length of summer seasons as well as to study the intensity of the atmospheric circulation over southwest Asia. The indices provided the possibility of assessing different aspects of the summer circulation. We also used the gpm, relative vorticity, horizontal divergent fields and diabatic heating charts to investigate structure of anticyclones on Iran and Arab countries in midtroposphere and the Turkmenistan anticyclone, the Pakistan low and the Zagros convergence zone in lower troposphere. Finally, the temporal variations of the summer circulation components were studied using the most suitable variable for each component. The results show that the monsoon circulation is the main factor controlling the large-scale summer circulation over southwest Asia. However, the surface heat forcing has the main role in the formation and maintenance of atmospheric circulation in the lower and middle troposphere. Investigation of the synoptic scale circulations, show that the Zagros chain is effective on formation of anticyclones over Iran. In fact, the vertical advection of heat induced by the elevated heat source in western Iran has a key role on the formation of a thermally-driven anticyclonic circulation in mid-troposphere. On the other hand, formation of the Turkmenistan anticyclone and the Arabian anticyclone has different mechanisms. Formation of the Turkmenistan anticyclone in the lower troposphere is mainly due to the convergence and subsidence of the air with monsoon origin in southwest Asia at the levels below 600 hPa. While the Arabian anticyclone is strengthened by the descending air originated from the monsoon system as well as thermal forcing from surface and vertical advection of heat from the high lands in the western Arabian Peninsula. Application of circulation indices in this research led to recognition of the main characteristics of summertime atmospheric circulations including the starting/ending time, length, and intensity of the boreal summer over the southwest Asia. Examination of the temporal variability of the summertime atmospheric circulation over southwest Asia, show that the summer duration has been reduced considerably in recent years. Early ending of the summer can be physically related to the early ending of the transverse gradient in meridional temperature field during the recent 2-3 decades in the study region. The documents also indicated that shortening of the summer and weakening of the atmospheric circulation over southwest Asia has a relationship with shortening of the monsoon season and also weakening of the monsoon circulation over south and Southeast Asia. However, the correlation between the monsoon circulation and large-scale atmospheric circulation over southwest Asia shows a decreasing trend. The latter can be an indicator of increasing regional-scale factors role on the southwest Asian climate. The overall result of this study indicates that from 1980 onward, the inter-annual variation in the intensity of the activity of atmospheric circulation components has been considerably decreased compared to the time before 1980.

A tropical cyclone (TC) is a low-pressure system that forms on the warm waters of the tropical and subtropical oceans. Intensive tropical cyclones are called “Hurricanes” and are hazardous for marine transportation, ports and even to aircrafts and so on. Pressure at the center of these systems reduces to 1005 hPa and lesser. Wind velocities of hurricanes may exceed 33 m/sec. In general, there is a theory that says a tropical cyclone (TC) occurs in two stages:• Stage 1: TC occurs when the mesoscale convective complexes (MCC) produce a mesoscale vortex.• Stage 2: TC occurs when a second blow up of convection at the mesoscale vortex initiates the intensification process of lowering central pressure and increasing swirling winds. The Main regions for TC (and hurricane) generation are the Gulf of Guinea toward the Carrabin Sea, eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean in Philippines and yellow Sea and south of Indian peninsula in Maldives isles toward west. Most of the TCs in Indian Ocean move toward west and northwest. In rare conditions the country of Oman, southeast of Iran and south of Pakistan are affected by a TC (hurricanes) impacts. Return period for this movement of the TCs (and hurricanes) towards the north is very long. The Gonu and Phet TCs were two extraordinary tropical storms that reached to the north coasts of the Indian Ocean. It is suggested that Global Warming might be a main cause for the next unexpected behaviors of TCs In this study, data and climatic information of NOAA/ESRL were used to provide Maps of the Sea surface temperature (SST) changes and its anomalies, pressure changes in the 3 levels of 850,500 and 250Hpa to study horizontal wind speed within the lower, middle and upper troposphere and investigate causes of the PHET TC occurrence. Then, to determine motions of the Phet in its life, two main parameters namely changes of Omega and geo-potential height in lower and middle troposphere were evaluated on the basis of Attraction and Buoyancy rules. To determine changes due to storm movement in affected areas by the Phet, we selected parameters of Temperature and accumulated rainfall and analyzed rainfall from satellite images field measured by the TRMM and temperature anomaly field from synoptic charts of 850 and 500 hPa levels (difference from longtime average). Results of this study show that increase of north Indian ocean SST up to 32Co associated with SST of the Bay of Bengal and Regressive movement of STHP from the Indian peninsula, Pakistan, the Persian Gulf due to onset of the monsoonal southwesterly flows from equator are the basic factors for onset and development of the TCs and hurricanes such as the Gonu or the Phet. Also inspections of storm tracks show that they follow the rule of “Attraction and Buoyancy. According to the rule the Phet from the beginning stage until 4th June moved toward the Oman coasts due to far effects of the Balkan surface low. But northward expansion of the STHP in that region (moving to the south coasts of Iran) by reinforcing closed cells of the monsoon on Pakistan from 4 June onwards, the storm’s path was deviated toward southeastern coasts of Iran and then toward south parts of Pakistan. Geopotential heights variations analysis in 850 and 500 hPa levels on 1 to 6 June, better show the STHP effects on passage tracks and intensity of storm. Polar satellite images show the most severe storm and rainfall (600 mm) in west of the Indian ocean on 2 and 3 of June. Generally, movements of rainfall cells of the mentioned storms have a close relation with the 500 hPa motion field of weather patterns. Forecasting of movement tracks for tropical cyclones is very important in weather forecasting. Predictions of tropical cyclone tracks in north of the Indian Ocean may be based on the rule of “Attraction and Buoyancy”, therefore it can determine movement tracks of storms in this region. The rule is based on relation and reaction among changes of the pressure and omega parameters in low, middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. Timely predictions can reduce damages due to these risks. Damages caused by tropical cyclones because of their heavy rainfall and severe winds, have placed the climate system in the class of horrible natural hazards. For Example PHET cyclone damages in Oman were more than 600m dollars. Also 10 thousand people in Pakistan have been moved and 16 killed. On the southeastern coast of Iran, on the fourth and fifth days of its formation, particularly in the Chabahar Port, the Sea wave height raised to 13m and dust storms with visibility reduced to less than500m. Over the recent decades, frequency of the tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean has shown a significant increasing trend. Based on this trend, in future occurrence of such storms in the northern coastlines of the Golf of Oman will be more possible