جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « بخش نفت » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

The oil sector, as the most important economic sector of the country, has played a significant role in the economic growth and development of the country and, therefore, has always been given special attention by managers and decision makers. Investing in this sector makes its capacity and potentials real and causes its effects on other economic sectors of the country. In a general division, the factors affecting investment can be divided into real and monetary categories. In this study, the effect of exchange rate and oil price shocks as monetary shocks and GDP shocks and value added of the oil sector as real shocks on investment in the oil sector has been investigated. To do this, the Bayesian self-regression approach (BVAR) and the data of 1357-99 years have been used. The results of the instantaneous reaction function show that the shocks of GDP, value added and oil prices have a positive effect on investment in the oil sector, among which, the shock of GDP has the greatest effect. Also, the exchange rate shock initially has a contractionary effect on investment in this sector, and after two periods, the amount of investment increases.

Examining the dynamics of oil commodity prices at different times is of particular importance, as fluctuations in commodity prices can be a serious problem for policymakers. Monetary policy shocks are among the factors that can affect the price of petroleum products. Therefore, identifying as accurately as possible the factors affecting price changes can be of great help to policymakers. Due to this, the purpose of the present study is to investigate the effect of monetary policy shocks on price dynamics of selected petroleum products group in Iran using Bayesian Var model in the period of 2008-1 to 2017-4. Selected petroleum products include bitumen, slack wax oil and sulfur. The results showed that in the long run, liquidity, the price of slack wax oil and the price of sulfur had the greatest impact on the price of bitumen, slack wax oil and sulfur, respectively. Interest rates have been studied the least impact on commodities.

The sustainability of economic growth, the development of the industrial sector, the service sector, the agricultural sector and the oil sector are at the forefront of economic discussions in developing countries. Because economic growth and development is the product of interactions between different economic sectors. The importance of identifying the large economic sector of each country and determining the share of each sector in the future improvement and performance of each economy and country is one of the most important issues studied by economic planners of each country. So that the effect of decisions and policies of each economic sector can have different economic and social effects on the economy of each country. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to determine the dominant sector among the sectors of agriculture, industry, services and oil in the Iranian economy. Also, the effect of each of these economic sectors on economic growth has been studied and analyzed.

In order to determine the dominant sector in the Iranian economy among the economic sectors (agriculture, industry, services and oil), the Herfindahl method has been used. In order to investigate the effect of each economic sector on economic growth, the distributed intermittent auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method has been used. The data of the present study from 1978 to 2017 were extracted from the site of the Central Bank of Iran and then examined. Considering that the results of this research can be used in the decision-making process of economic planners, it is applied in terms of the purpose of this research.

The results of Herfindal index show that the service sector is the dominant sector in the Iranian economy in terms of size, which means that the service sector has the largest share in terms of size in terms of GDP. Also, after the services sector, in terms of share, the oil sector, industry sector and agricultural sector have formed other sectors of the Iranian economy, respectively. While the results of the estimate show that there is a positive and significant relationship between value added of services, industry, agriculture and oil with economic growth in the short and long term. On the other hand, the findings of the model with auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) show that the effect of oil in the short term and services in the long run on Iran's economic growth was greater than other sectors, so that even in the short and long term, respectively The second place in terms of impact after the services and oil sector is on economic growth. Examination of the error correction factor also shows that in each period, 69% of the imbalance in different economic sectors moves towards the long-term value.

According to the results of the study, the oil sector can be mentioned as an important part of economic growth. While the agricultural sector has played a very weak role on economic growth during the period under review. So that the agricultural sector, both in terms of size and impact, has the lowest amount of the country's economy.

This research aims to study the relationship between value-added of the construction sector and the Iranian economy using Iranian National Accounts data for period 1959-2014. The gross domestic product of Iran is broken down into three segments: construction, oil, and the rest, and the cyclical components of each of these variables are extracted. Applying different statistical techniques (correlation, least square regression, and vector autoregressive analysis) along with defining and extracting prolonged relative low-activity periods –times consistent of at least two consecutive periods of negative growth rates of the cyclical component– we have found that: 1) fluctuations of oil sector leads those of the construction and the rest (oil and construction excluded) sectors. 2) prolonged relative low-activity periods in the construction sector often begin concurrent or after the whole economy, and often ends one year later than the whole economy. 3) a shock to the rest sector has a significant impact on the construction sector. 4) the fluctuations in the construction sector do not have a significant effect on the rest sector. All in all, the results provide no evidence that the construction sector leads or drives the Iranian economy.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of Iran's oil revenues on macroeconomic variables in the form of DSGE model during the period of 1995-2015 in the context of open economy based on the real business cycle pattern, in line with the conditions of the Iranian economy including households, enterprises, government and The monetary authority is the oil sector with an emphasis on the National Development Fund.The results of simulation of the model variables indicate that, due to the positive impetus of oil revenues, production, consumption, investment, government spending under both scenarios increases, but the increase in the direct tax distribution scenario is higher than the base scenario. Also, the greater the share of government-owned oil revenues (50 and 75percent) in households from the current budget, the increase will also be higher in the resources of the National Development Fund. Consequently, the contribution of the Facility to the Private Sector (F) increases. According to the modeling of this study, the increased private sector investment (I_t^pa) also increases, as a result of non-oil production in the country. Therefore, based on the results obtained, the direct tax-deductible distribution policy is recommended as a supplement to the National Development Fund.

Today, the National Development Fund due to the important role that play in dealing with oil revenue shocks, they are considered by the oil countries as an effective mechanism for managing oil revenues. Therefore, a new Keynesians DSGE model with respect to price stickiness and major sectors as households, firms, governments, central banks and oil, the National Development Fund, Designed and calibrated for Iran's economy. The study of the first and second order moments of simulated variables confirms the relative success of the model in simulating the space of the Iranian economy. However, due to the combination of the state budget, the increase in the current and operational budget is far more than the development budget. The inefficiency of government investment has also made the government's budget more ineffective in the model. Also, the manufacturing sector of the non-oil sector of the Iranian economy has been rising (relatively small) because of National Development Fund share of Concessional facilities provided to the private sector. Other results indicate that increasing the share of the National Development Fund from oil revenues will increase private sector investment and consequently the production of non-oil sector in the country. The necessary condition for realizing the results of this policy is the increase in the capacity of non-oil revenues of the government.

This paper investigates whether the oil sector may have the potential for job creation in Iranian economy. Using the input-output technique as well as indices of forward and backward linkage in employment, the paper calculates job creation in oil sector compared to that of other economic sectors. This leads to an evaluation of oil sector as an intermediate among other sectors. As to the forward employment coefficient, the results reveal that sectors such as "crude oil and natural gas", "petroleum products" and "materials and chemical products" – the latter being one of the important sectors dependent to oil industry – all have lowest ranking among all sectors. Also, as to the backward employment coefficient, some sectors such as "crude oil and natural gas" as well as "petroleum products" ranked lowest. One concludes that investment in these sectors cannot provide the suitable path to development of employment in the country. This is explainable, mostly due to sell of crude oil (as opposed to processed products) as well as lack of development in forward sectors such as gasoline, gas oil and petrochemical Industries; altogether causing the absence of strong relations between oil and other economic activities in Iran.

This paper examines the relationship between productivity growth and oil growth during the period of 1981-2007. It first، reviews the theoretical and empirical a literature and measures productivity growth in Iranian oil sector. The paper also examines the causal link between productivity growth and oil growth in Iran using unit root and co- integration techniques within a bi-Variate Vector Auto – Regressive (bVAR) and Vector Error Correction (VEC) framework. The results revealed a positive relationship between productivity growth and oil growth in Iran. The causation is directed from productivity growth toward oil growth.