جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « تاثیر نامتقارن » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

Considering the significant increase in the public debt burden in Iran over the past years and considering the dependence of the government's budget on revenues from oil sales, this study investigated the short-term and long-term asymmetric effects of oil rent on public debt in Iran during the years 1996-2021. For this purpose, the augmented bounds cointegration test and Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) estimator have been used. The results show that the short-term and long-term effect of the increase in the share of oil rent from GDP on the share of public debt from GDP )public debt burden index) is negative and significant and this effect is positive and significant for the decrease impulses; In such a way that the size of effects of increasing impulses is smaller than the effects of decreasing impulses (confirmation of asymmetric effects). The results of the asymmetric Granger causality test also show the existence of a causal relationship from the increasing impulses of the public debt burden to the increasing impulses of the share of oil rent from GDP, which confirms that high levels of public debt in the country lead to the faster extraction and sale of oil resources. According to other results, economic growth has a negative and significant effect, the share of consumption expenditure in GDP has a positive and significant effect, and inflation has an insignificant effect on the public debt burden in Iran. Based on this, regulating and limiting the level of public borrowing during periods of booming oil revenues, transferring natural resource revenues through the financial system to the real sector, and adopting anti-corruption policies to prevent the deviation and waste of oil revenues in order to have a greater effect of oil rent on public debts and on the other hand, the control of public debts and the correct management of the ratio of debt to GDP in order to reduce the speed of extraction and sale of oil resources are the most important policy recommendations of this research.

This paper investigates the effect of positive and negative shocks from the shadow economy and financial development on energy consumption during the period of 1974–2014 in the short and long term using the non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag. The ratio of liquidity to GDP has been used as an indicator of financial development, and the volume of the shadow economy calculated by Piraee and Rajaee (2015) has also been used, using a multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) model. The results show that the effect of positive and negative shadows of the shadow economy and financial development on energy consumption in the long and short term is asymmetric, and this asymmetry is that in the short and long term, a negative shadow economy shock has a greater effect than a positive shock. In the long term, the positive shock of the financial development has a greater effect on energy consumption than its negative shock. The negative shock of the shadow economy with an interruption leads to an increase of 0.04 in energy consumption, but its positive shock reduces energy consumption by only 0.02. Also, the relationship between positive and negative shocks of financial development on energy consumption is direct. Therefore, in order to control energy consumption, investing in improving financial development through improved technology will lead to reducing environmental pollution and saving energy consumption.

This paper uses the non-linear auto-regressive distributed lags (NARDL) model to examine the short- and long -run effects of the negative and positive shocks of the shadow economy on financial development in Iran over the period 1974 - 2015. For this purpose, the ratio of liquidity to gross domestic product is used as an indicator of financial development. The shadow economy includes all market-based production activities that are deliberately hidden from government officials due to the escape or avoidance of payments, such as taxes and social security contributions. In this study, the MIMIC (multiple indicators and multiple causes) calculations by Piraee and Rajaee (2015) are used for estimating the shadow economy. The results show that the effects of positive and negative shocks of shadow economy on financial development are asymmetric in the short- and long-run. This asymmetry means that in the short- and long-run, the negative shock to shadow economy is more effective than its positive shock. Therefore, in order to maintain the current level of financial development, the government can monitor size of shadow economy through strict control of illegal activities in the short-run, identify the illegal activities, and reduce them in the long run‎.