جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "تقاضای نیروی کار" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

Currency shocks affect macroeconomic variables and affect different economic markets. The exchange rate is one of the influential and important variables in economic systems, and in countries like Iran, where the major part of the government's income is formed from foreign currency income from oil exports, it is much more important. Exchange rate as an important key variable including the effects of developments and relations outside the economy on the domestic economic variables of interest and its effect on these variables is of special importance. On the other hand, employment is an effective factor in economic growth, income distribution and maintaining human dignity, and unemployment is the root of many anomalies and economic, social and political consequences. Currency impulses affect the demand of the entire economy through imports, exports, and demand for money, as well as the supply of the entire economy through the cost of imported intermediate goods. Therefore, the changes of this variable easily affect the economic structure of the countries, new theoretical discussions followed by experimental studies have shown that exchange rate impulses have different effects on macroeconomic variables in different economies. In such a way that the manner and size of this effect on the variables are different and depends on the initial conditions of each economy. The demographic structure of Asian countries and the abundant supply of labor on one hand and the lack of appropriate facilities and as a result insufficient demand on the other hand have made unemployment the most important socio-economic problem of these countries. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of currency shocks on macroeconomic variables and labor demand in Iran using a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model. In this study, currency shocks, real GDP, employment, interest rates, oil-free GDP, oil revenues, inflation, consumption and government consumption are considered as currency shocks as the source of fluctuations in the research model. The model is also simulated and solved using seasonal data and Bayesian estimator. The results of the model solving show that the model used to simulate the Iranian economy is very appropriate. The model is also simulated and solved using seasonal data and Bayesian estimator. The results of the model solving show that the model used to simulate the Iranian economy is very appropriate. The results of solving the model indicate that the model used to simulate Iran's economy is very suitable. The results obtained from the shock response functions caused by the currency impulse show that the production increases in response to the currency impulse in the short term due to the increase in exports and investment. In the following, due to the dynamics of the variables affecting production, the production decreased and returned to its stable level in the fifth period. The behavior of interest rate variables and public sector consumption with currency impulse is exactly the same as the behavior of production. The biggest declines are related to real GDP and interest rates. An increase in the exchange rate and a decrease in the interest rate will increase liquidity and increase the consumption of domestic consumer demand, which will cause the general price level to increase again. With the increase in consumption, inflation will start to increase, the changes in the domestic interest rate due to the currency impulse will also increase at first, then decrease and then increase again, so that in the long term its effect will tend to zero and it will reach its stable equilibrium state. Changing the exchange rate from different directions leaves opposite effects on production, and the result of these effects indicates the net effect of changing the exchange rate on production and employment. As the model outputs show. The results show that currency shocks reduce the medium-term real GDP, oil-free GDP, interest rates, government consumption and inflation and consumption. The results also show that severe currency shocks and rising exchange rates in the short run have reduced employment and labor demand. The effect of the change in the real exchange rate on production is revealed from two paths: one is the path of the amount of use of the existing production capacity and the other is the path of the amount of investment and creation of new production capacities. Also, due to the fact that the currency impulse leads to a decrease in the GDP over time and on the other hand causes an increase in the inflation rate and liquidity, it is recommended to use monetary tools as much as possible to avoid the extreme impact of the impulse. currency effects on the economy. On the other hand, the lower dependence of national income on oil can make the effect of exchange rate changes weaker. The results show that currency shocks reduce the medium-term real GDP, oil-free GDP, interest rates, government consumption and inflation and consumption. The results also show that severe currency shocks and rising exchange rates in the short run have reduced employment and labor demand.

Iran's economy will become bigger in the coming years and the GDP will increase every year. Therefore, the economy will need more labor force, which is provided through population growth. Now this question is raised, will population growth be enough for Iran's future economic growth?During the last 50 years, the situation of Iran's labor market has been such that the supply has increased over the demand, so unemployment has been one of the chronic problems of Iran. For example, the active population in 2021 was about 25.8 million people, of which 2.3 million were unemployed and 23.5 million were employed, that is, the unemployment rate was 9.2% (Statistical Center of Iran, Results of the 2021 Labor Force Survey Plan), but the population outlook in Iran shows major changes in the coming years. This research shows that in the future, the labor market of Iran will not experience unemployment, rather the possibility of labor force shortage will not be surprising. In this article, the supply of and demand for labor in Iran are estimated until 2050, then the gap between the two is predicted.

To predict the labor supply, first, the population by age has been estimated using the cohort method until 2050. Then we consider two scenarios for the labor force participation rate. First, it is assumed that the labor force participation rate will be constant until the year 2050. Second, it is assumed that the participation rate will increase along the trend of "average years of education of women". With the availability of the participation rate and the working age population (15-64), the active population has been estimated until 2050.The demand for labor is estimated according to the production elasticity of employment. With the assumption of this elasticity and the assumption of economic growth at least level for Iran's economy, labor demand is predicted. The average production elasticity of employment in Iran is about 0.7, which means that with economic growth of 1%, the demand for labor increases by 0.7%. Assuming that this elasticity is constant until 2050 and considering the scenario for economic growth (minimum economic growth), the labor demand is estimated for the next 30 years.

 A realistic scenario that predicts the labor force participation rate in line with the trend of "average years of education for women", the active population is predicted to be 30.35 million in 2050. On the other hand, by using the output elasticity of employment and two scenarios for Iran's economic growth, the demand for the labor force has been predicted until 2050. Assuming an average economic growth, 2.6% per year and an output elasticity, 0.7, the demand for labor in 2050 is predicted to be around 40.26 million people. With a realistic scenario, the results show that there is unemployment in Iran until 2030, although the trend is decreasing. In 2030, unemployment will reach zero, which means labor supply and demand will be equal. From 2030 onwards, the excess demand for the labor force begins with an increasing trend, so that in 2050 the excess demand for the labor force reaches about 10 million people.

In this research, labor supply and demand have been predicted using very conservative and reasonable assumptions. The results show that with a minimum economic growth rate (1% per year) and the maximum increase in the labor force participation rate up to 50% in 2050, there will still be a lack of labor demand. There are three ways to reduce excess demand. The first is to increase productivity. Through improving technology and human capital through education, health, skills, etc., labor productivity can be increased. With the improvement of technology and the use of advanced machines, the use of robots, the mechanization of various economic sectors, and the use of artificial intelligence (IA), the majority of excess demand can be provided.  The second is to use of foreign labor. Many countries use the supply excess of foreign labor from countries that face supply excess to offset their excess demand. The third way is to increase the labor force participation rate of women in Iran.It should be noted that the assumption of other conditions is always met in any forecasting. Among these conditions are sanctions, oil exports, technology, environmental changes, and so forth. For example, if the sanctions are lifted, Iran's economic growth can up to 7 percent annually. Higher economic growth leads to higher demand for labor, and excess demand occurs sooner. Therefore, changing any of the unexpected factors in the future can increase or decrease the forecast of supply and demand.

The subsidy is one of the vital policy tools adopted by the government. As one of the energy exporting countries, Iran carried out fundamental reforms and revised the provision of subsidies for essential goods, especially energy carriers, in 2010. Energy is one of the most important production inputs. Therefore, the price correction of energy carriers has a high sensitivity in the country's economy, especially in the industry sector. Since the highest output value of the industrial sector in Iran is related to large industrial workplaces, the effect of the increase in the price of energy carriers on the production function and labor and capital demand functions of the six industries with the highest output value and the highest value of fuel consumption during 1997-2019 was examined using the autoregressive distributed lag model in this study. Also, targeting energy subsidies has led to increased production in the industry of chemicals and chemical products in the long term. Therefore, the production of the chemicals industry and chemical products showed a more significant reaction to the increase in the price of energy carriers than the other industries examined above. As a result, policymakers should pay more attention to these industries than other industries.

The purpose of this article is to investigate the role of the structure of industries in their labour demand. The main questions raised in this article are what factors affect the level of employment and employment of labour in Iran's industrial sector and what is the role of structural characteristics in industrial labour demand? This issue was investigated using the econometric model of panel data using the data of 23 two-digit ISIC codes of industrial enterprises for the years 2011 to 2018. The findings of this article showed that the real wage did not have a significant effect on labour demand in Iranian industries. Also, the real interest rate of bank loans to the industrial sector is not significant as an indicator of the cost of capital at the probability level of 5% or 10%. Among the variables representing structural characteristics in industries, the ratio of added value to the number of enterprises, which is an indicator of the average scale of production in the industry per enterprise, has had a positive but small effect on the labour demand of industries. This shows that the industries that have a larger scale do not have a lot of job creation potential and this situation is also true for the ratio of investment per worker. The message of this article is that if the government's goal is to increase employment in the industrial sector, paying attention to small and medium enterprises compared to the policy of increasing the size of enterprises will probably have a greater effect on labour demand and industrial employment growth. Also, just creating economic growth or achieving industrial growth in Iran's economy cannot be expected to increase industrial employment.

An Empirical Test about Role of Information and Communication Technology: A case study of Iran industrial establishments 10 employees and more Alireza Amini , Maryam Malakan and Zahra Alizadeh In this study, the role of information and communication technology (ICT) has been tested on industrial employment during the period of 2006-2013. The results of model is estimated by using panel data using generalized moment method (GMM) at the level of two-digit ISIC codes indicate that information and communication technology in the form of a combination of computer and internet users has had a negative and significant effect on employment. Therefore, the effects of information and communication technology on the reduction of non-specialized jobs have been stronger than the creation of specialized occupations. In this study, real value added, real wages, real interest rates of bank facilities (as cost of capital use) and industry size are used as control variables. Value added and real wages, according to theoretical expectations, have had a significant positive and negative impact on employment, respectively. The real interest rate of the banking facility as an indicator of the cost of capital utilization has a negative and significant effect on employment and represents the complementary relationship between labor and capital. Finally, the variable control of industry size has a positive and significant impact on employment.

This paper examines the effect of exchange rate increase on Iran's manufacturing industries labor demand for the period of 2001-2016, by using the dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM). The exchange rate influences the demand for labor through two channels: first, while an increase in exchange rate makes home products cheaper relative to foreign products, increases the manufacturing product demand and has a positive effect on labor demand. Second, an increase in exchange rates makes imported inputs more expensive and, consequently, increases production costs that decrease demand for labor. The net effect of employment changes that caused by the exchange rate depends on the sum of these two channels. The results of this study show that the net effect of increasing exchange rate on employment of manufacturing industries is negative and significant, which indicates the high dependence of the manufacturing process in manufacturing industries on foreign inputs.

This paper examines the own price and substitution elasticity of the labor force demand for small and medium scale firms in Iran's provinces. In this study, for estimation, the Fractional Panel Probit technique has been employed for the period of time from 2004 to 2014 and at the provincial level. The result of estimation for both groups shows a negative relationship between wage and labor demand that is consistent with labor demand theory. There is a positive effect for output-employment elasticity. The other result shows Cross elasticity of capital price and labor demand reveals a substitution effect in small firms. The demand for labor is reduced by increasing in taxes and value of raw materials. As Iran’s labor market is suffering from labor demand shortage and high unemployment, it is suggested that the economic policymaker should eliminate production barriers, care about increasing production capacity and facilitate the supply of raw materials.

In this study, according to destructive effects of energy consumption on the environment quality and its limits in Iran, substitution the labor instead of energy and its impact on the economy was investigated. estimation the elasticity of substitution between labor and energy for industry sector of Iran by using the CES production function and periodic observation (1980-2013) was performed.The result suggests that the amount of substitution elasticity is 0.48 percent.The other results of estimations show that by increasing the price of energy as an environmental policy reduced its consumption and on the other hand, because of the substitution between energy and labor increasing the labor demand can be seen. Increasing the energy price as an environmental policy can have two positive effects on the economy; on the one hand, occurs reducing the energy consumption and improvement of the environment and on the other hand by substitution the labor instead of energy the labor demand and employment increases.

This paper aims to analyze factors affecting employment across nine economic sectors in the economy of Iran over the period of 1973-2011. Based on the results of dynamic models used for ARDL estimation of employment functions across all economic sectors, it is revealed that production variable has had a positive impact on employment and per capita capital, where as an index of relative cost of employing labor(w/r), bearing a negative impact on employment. Moreover, the impact of Total Factor Productivity, treated as an index of technology, on demand for labor has been negative and statistically meaningful for agriculture, industry, utilities (electricity, gas and water), telecommunications and other service sectors. As such, it is concluded that growth in production plays a significant role for growth in employment generation, but one should not overlook the negative impact of per capita capital and technological progress on labor employment. Estimations based on employment functions indicate that if average growth is achieved at 8% per annum, during the Sixth Development Plan, the average net annual job creation will be around 949,000 and the unemployment rate will fall to 9%.

Technology and wages are important factors can be effective on the labor force demand. This paper tries to apply the effect technological change and wages (compensation) on labour demand in Iran. To achieve this goal, the combined input-output model with demand function model of labour. For this purpose, we used panel data approach and input-output tables in the years 1365, 1370, 1380. The estimation results using fixed effects approach showing that positive and significant coefficient of technology on employment and it is consistent with the theoretical.

The quality of firms’ reaction against demand uncertainty affects the production inputs employment. In this research I have studied and compared the behavior of active firms in manufacturing sector with respect to the risk attitude and tested it’s effect on production inputs combination(with the special emphasize on labor employment). The research findings reveal that active firms in manufacturing of food, beverage and tobacco products (code31), manufacturing of textile, wearing apparel and leather products (code32) and manufacturing of wood and products of wood (code33) don’t significantly react against the risk resulted from demand uncertainty so demand uncertainty has not significant effect on capital-labor ratio. In manufacturing of paper, publishing and printing (code34), due to the risk averseness of the firms demand uncertainty increases the capital-labor ratio. In manufacturing of chemical products (code35), manufacturing of non-metallic mineral products (code36), manufacturing of basic metal (code37) and manufacturing of machinery, equipment and metal instruments products (code38), however, firms negatively react against the demand uncertainty and rise in demand uncertainty decreases the labor intensity in these sub- sectors.

In this study, first the trend of women’s employment was analyzed and then between 1373-1385 the role of influential factors on women’s employment in Iran’s manufacturing was identified. A neoclassical model was used and women’s employment was considered as a function of value added to costant price, women’s as well as men’s wages to costant price and real cost of using capital. Based on the results of estimating women’s labour force’s demand with panel data model, value added has the most positive effect on women’s employment. Therefore, obviation of production growth obstacles in industries has the most contribution to women’s employment.
Also, hypothesis regarding women’s labour force’s substitution with physical capital and men’s labour force’s was confirmed. Finally although women’s real wages has negative effect on their employment, but it was not significant.

Perpetual growth and sustainable economic development necessitates optimal use production resources. Meanwhile, one of the most pivotal and critical resources of any country’s growth and development are human resources. Human resources play a dual role in economic planning as both the factor and goal of development. As the issues related to human resources have both economic and non-economic aspects, they are considered outstanding in every country’s macroeconomic planning in a way that most important concern of macroeconomic planners is unemployment. This paper tries to analyze and estimate labor demand function in Kermanshah province. It also evaluates the impacts of variables influencing labor demand function in the province within 1981-2009 through using cointegration and error correction techniques. The results of the study indicate that labor demand function in the province has positive relationship with the province’s value added in a way that in the long run with one percent of increase in the value added, the labor demand increases by 0.32 percent. Labor demand function has negative relationship with the labor wage in a way that with 1 percent of increase in the wages, labor demand decreases by 0.26 percent. In the long-run and short-run models, the effect of these indicators is significant and corresponding to the expected signs of theoretical principles.

Knowledge and technology play an important role in raising the demand for labour and reducing the rate of unemployment. In knowledge based economy, a rise in knowledge and skills will lead to innovations, thus raising productivity and, incomes and reducing inflation and unemployment. Supplying high quality goods and changing consumption patterns due to technological break-through would expand markets and raise the demand for labour. On the other hand, skilled labour would lead to dynamism and technological improvements in production processes, therefore, expanding production capacity consequently and raising the export of knowledge and competitiveness in international markets. Creation of different and new job opportunities is a consequence of technological improvement. Technology improvement would reduce the number of jobs for unskilled labour and would increase the number of jobs for hight skilled labour. This paper examines the impact of knowledge and technology on the demand for labour in Iran between 1350-1380.Using the OLS method, the results of the estimated model show that knowledge and technology have positive and meaningful effect on demand for labour in Iran.

This essay consists of three parts: the first part reviews the Western literature on the subject. In the second part, the related economic studies are discussed. In the third part, the theory of Islamic firm behavior, its certain assumptions, and the labor demand function from a micro/macro perspective are presented. In this part, the labor market is categorized into two types: hire based labor market and participatory labor market. Similarly, firms are also categorized into two: profit maximizing firms and production maximizing firms. The author explains the behavior of these firms and their demand for labor from a microeconomic perspective. Deriving the demand function for each firm and summing them horizontally gives the aggregate demand function for the participatory and hire labor market The paper concludes that, citrus paribus, at least for tow following reasons, the demand for labor in Islamic economics is more than the capitalist economics:a) Firms with the objective of maximizing their product;b) Participatory labor markets in profits.