نشریه اقتصاد و تجارت نوین
سال هجدهم شماره 4 (پیاپی 61، زمستان 1402)

This paper has addressed two issues in Iran's economy. First, considering that the market interest rate is hidden in Iran, the first goal of this paper is to provide a calculate of the interest rate in financial markets of Iran. To derive a calculable alternative for this rate, the relationship between the spot and future prices of the gold coin certificate of deposit was used, and the monthly rates was extracted during 2009:04-2018-04. The second issue is the relationship between interest rate and inflation. Considering different views in the literature and, assuming that these views are mainly derived from the empirical studies on economies with different conditions and that this relationship may have a non-linear form, this article provides a model of MS-VAR to investigate the non-linear causal relationship between interest rate and inflation. The findings show that this relationship during the studied era is classified in two regimes. In the zero regime, when both variables are at high and fluctuating levels, there is a two-way causality between them, which confirms the Fisher’s effect. In regime one, where both variables are at relatively low levels with little fluctuation, there has been a positive one-way causality from interest rate to inflation.

The stock market is one of the important markets for investment, and it is important for investors to know the behavior of stocks during the bubble period and the market crash. This research investigates the volatility spillover in the index stocks of 30 companies as stocks with the highest market value and liquidity in the stock market, using the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover test and complex network theory for the time period of the stock market bubble in 2019 and the crash period. It covers the years 2019 and 2019. According to the results during the market bubble period, Vepasar´stock is the most receiver of turbulence in the market and Kegel´ stock is the most sender of turbulence in the stock market. During the period of market collapse, the stock is the most sender of volatility and the stock of exporters is the most receiver of volatility in the network. During the market bubble period, Vepasar and Jam have the least volatility. During th crach of the stock market, the combination of Mobin and Jam stocks, as well as Jam and Parsan´stock, Shapdis and Jam´stock, Shekhark and Jam stocks, Shatran and Jam stocks in the portfolio have the least integration.

Climate change is becoming a global crisis that can affect all aspects of human life on Earth, including the economy. So, protecting the environment and achieving sustainable development goals are now on the agenda of many governments. This article uses the Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model to test the role of information communication technology as a transition variable. In this research, it is investigated whether ICT can decouple the economic growth from the increase in pollution by changing the effect of productivity on CO2 emission. The goal is to show whether policymakers can use the development of the digital economy around the world to achieve better environmental and economic outcomes. This study was conducted on a global scale and data from 108 countries was used from 2003 to 2019. The results show that the co2 emission follows a PSTR model with ICT as a transition variable that changes the effect of total factor productivity on co2 emission in favor of the environment. ICT development will improve carbon efficiency and reduce climate change.

Employment is one of the most important issues of economic and social planning . One of the factors affecting employment is research and development. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the effect of R&D on employment in the industrial sector in the provinces during 2006 - 2019 using the spatial econometric model. The results showed that the industrial value added had the greatest direct and indirect effect on the employment of the industrial sector. The spatial effect of this variable was negative and significant. The direct effect of industrial investment on industrial employment is positive but insignificant. The indirect effect of the industrial investment on the industrial employment of the neighboring provinces is negative, but it has not had a significant effect on the employment of the neighboring provinces. The direct effect of industrial R&D on the employment is positive and significant. Also, its spatial impact or spillover on the employment of neighboring provinces has been calculated to be positive and significant. Therefore, the increase of industrial research and development in one province leads to the increase of employment in neighboring provinces. Considering the importance of employment in the industry, this matter should be taken into consideration.

The main purpose of this research is to investigate the cyclical behavior of public health expenditures and its effect on health outcomes indicators in 50 member countries of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) during the years 2000-2019. For this purpose, the Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF) filter was used to extract the cyclical trend and the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimator was used to estimate the models. The results show that the average value of the cyclical parameter in the studied countries is 0.121, and public health expenditures had pro-cyclical behavior in 29 countries and counter-cyclical behavior in 21 countries. Also, increasing the cyclical parameter (increase in pro-cyclical behavior) of public health expenditures has a significant and negative effect on health outcomes and leads to an increase in the under-five mortality rate (with an estimated coefficient of 0.081) and a decrease in life expectancy (with an estimated coefficient of -0.022) in OIC countries. The results of the estimation of factors affecting the cyclical parameter also show that increasing the share of public health expenditures of the total public expenditures, increasing the weight of social security funds in health budgets and improving institutional quality led to a decrease in the pro-cyclical behavior of public health expenditures and increasing the level of democracy leads to its increase.

The subsidy is one of the vital policy tools adopted by the government. As one of the energy exporting countries, Iran carried out fundamental reforms and revised the provision of subsidies for essential goods, especially energy carriers, in 2010. Energy is one of the most important production inputs. Therefore, the price correction of energy carriers has a high sensitivity in the country's economy, especially in the industry sector. Since the highest output value of the industrial sector in Iran is related to large industrial workplaces, the effect of the increase in the price of energy carriers on the production function and labor and capital demand functions of the six industries with the highest output value and the highest value of fuel consumption during 1997-2019 was examined using the autoregressive distributed lag model in this study. Also, targeting energy subsidies has led to increased production in the industry of chemicals and chemical products in the long term. Therefore, the production of the chemicals industry and chemical products showed a more significant reaction to the increase in the price of energy carriers than the other industries examined above. As a result, policymakers should pay more attention to these industries than other industries.